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Hi AdamFong,
THanks, you give me good input ... I will try to do analysis first. Honestly, your tools kind of interesting ... my vote to you ...
StraitAsia
Buy at 2.8 on 21/12/07
Target=3.06
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.66
Buy at 2.8 on 21/12/07
Target=3.06
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.66
Dear techsys
I agree with you that every indicators will work differently with different stocks. In fact, previously I use targuchi to determine the significant factors in share price. When I do a back test (100% sample size), I realised that some share do not have any response to my indicators.
An example of my analysis (Foreland) is as follow. When the indicator is true (I have removed the formulae and conditions), I buy. The profit of 19.3% is compiled in summary P/L (which you do not understand)
| 03/09/07 | 0.405 | 0.405 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 131000 | TRUE | 19.30% | 31.85% |
| 04/09/07 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 75000 | TRUE | 19.30% | 51.15% |
| 05/09/07 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 150000 | TRUE | 19.30% | 70.45% |
| 06/09/07 | 0.395 | 0.455 | 0.395 | 0.45 | 3121000 | FALSE | 0.00% | 70.45% |
| 07/09/07 | 0.46 | 0.505 | 0.46 | 0.5 | 3746000 | FALSE | 0.00% | 70.45% |
Hi AdamFong,
I don't understand what you are posting here ...
But since you are showing me the green color is more often than red one, so I think you are doing good.
I agree sometime, our technique will fail us.
I'm personally, don't use same technique for every counter. I realize, every counter has their own uniqueness. So, indicators will work differently. So what I'm doing here is to catagorize, every counter into groups ...
Thanks alot Adam, I will try adapt your technique ...
Dear techsys
Thanks you for your interest. You are right to say that most of my picks lately are not doing well as shown below (my summarised P/L since 61026)
| 70903 | 19.30% | 281.16% |
| 70904 | 19.30% | 300.46% |
| 70905 | 19.30% | 319.76% |
| 70906 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70907 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70910 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70911 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70912 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70913 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70914 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70917 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70918 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70919 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70920 | 0.00% | 319.76% |
| 70921 | 9.30% | 329.06% |
| 70924 | 12.30% | 341.36% |
| 70925 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 70926 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 70927 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 70928 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 71001 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 71002 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 71003 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 71004 | 0.00% | 341.36% |
| 71005 | 0.18% | 341.54% |
| 71008 | 0.00% | 341.54% |
| 71009 | 0.13% | 341.67% |
| 71010 | 0.00% | 341.67% |
| 71011 | 0.00% | 341.67% |
| 71012 | 0.00% | 341.67% |
| 71015 | 0.00% | 341.67% |
| 71016 | 0.00% | 341.67% |
| 71017 | -6.15% | 335.52% |
| 71018 | -9.51% | 326.01% |
| 71019 | 1.13% | 327.14% |
| 71022 | 23.61% | 350.75% |
| 71023 | 2.12% | 352.87% |
| 71024 | 5.78% | 358.65% |
| 71025 | 3.88% | 362.53% |
| 71026 | 0.00% | 362.53% |
| 71029 | 0.00% | 362.53% |
| 71030 | -7.84% | 354.69% |
| 71031 | 0.00% | 354.69% |
| 71101 | 0.00% | 354.69% |
| 71102 | -7.84% | 346.85% |
| 71105 | -4.37% | 342.48% |
| 71106 | -16.61% | 325.87% |
| 71107 | 0.00% | 325.87% |
| 71109 | -28.78% | 297.09% |
| 71112 | 1.40% | 298.49% |
| 71113 | 0.00% | 298.49% |
| 71114 | 3.47% | 301.96% |
| 71115 | 3.86% | 305.82% |
| 71116 | 0.00% | 305.82% |
| 71119 | 0.00% | 305.82% |
| 71120 | 0.00% | 305.82% |
| 71121 | -20.74% | 285.08% |
| 71122 | 5.98% | 291.06% |
| 71123 | 12.58% | 303.64% |
| 71126 | 3.96% | 307.61% |
| 71127 | 0.00% | 307.61% |
| 71128 | 7.95% | 315.56% |
| 71129 | 0.00% | 315.56% |
| 71130 | 4.80% | 320.36% |
| 71203 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71204 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71205 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71206 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71207 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71210 | 0.00% | 320.36% |
| 71211 | -10.03% | 310.33% |
| 71212 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
| 71213 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
| 71214 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
| 71217 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
| 71218 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
| 71219 | 0.00% | 310.33% |
Hi adamfong,
I'm not too confident with your transaction time. Since most of people play using computer, it's hard to determine breaktrought simply by time. All people here very familiar with indicator and stuff so and I put observation on your target .. most of them loss .. :)
Just a piece of my opinion ..
StraitAsia
Buy at 2.78 on 19/12/07
Target=3.06
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.74
Buy at 2.78 on 19/12/07
Target=3.06
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.74
AdamFong... :)
You have a point there... which I agree with...
since the stock market is not such a straighforward thing...
Preservation of capital should always take priority over the desire to make money or the recovery of previos losses...
Due to up coming holiday seasons for the next 2 weeks and may extend to early Jan 2008, trading is slow as many fund managers have closed their books. Left behind are the retail investors who still bagged some stocks and waiting for a miracle....Well, probably it's better of off-load by cut lost if you are doing contra, otherwise, pay and keep it for a better resolution in 2008.
Have a great festive season ahead.
Dear Mani
I agree with you on "to gain in the long run, one must let profits run significantly before exiting".
However, the target price for this thread is based on contra period. If you are able to hold, then you should let the profit runs.
I disagree with you on "one should get back in when the price gets lower... then practise as before". Sometimes a cheap stock doesn't mean that it will not get cheaper. I will only buy again when my indicator is traggered again.
Cutting loss is a good practice... :)
Though one may get kicked out quite often by whipsaws and false breakouts, practising this, it ensures no big losses are experienced...
In any case, one should get back in when the price gets lower... then practise as before (cut loss if further probable down is evident)
But to gain in the long run, one must let profits run significantly before exiting...
Dear zhuge_liang
Yes, I have cut loss and move on. My first priority is to preserve capital with tight cut-loss strategy. My study has shown that the best cut lost percentage is 1 to 5% (depending on the volatility and volume) for profit optimisation.
Hi adamfong,
Based on what you said about Wilmar, you would have cut loss at $4.86. But it closed at $4.90. I would prefer a larger cut loss limit of 8-10% to take into account rebounds after small dips.
ChinaSun
Buy at 0.46 on 17/12/07
Target=0.51
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 0.45
FibreChem
Buy at 1.36 on 17/12/07
Target=1.5
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 1.34
Wilmar
Buy at 4.9 on 14/12/07
Target=5.2
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 4.86
Buy at 4.9 on 14/12/07
Target=5.2
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 4.86
StraitAsia
Buy at 2.95 on 12/12/07
Target=3.32
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.92
Buy at 2.95 on 12/12/07
Target=3.32
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 2.92
StraitAsia
Buy at 3.04 on 11/12/07
Target=3.28
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 3
Foreland
Buy at 0.565 on 10/12/07
Target=0.63
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 0.555
Buy at 0.565 on 10/12/07
Target=0.63
Sell by T+4
Cut Lost : 0.555
Singaporegal
FibreChem is looking good but do not be overconfident, pls remember to take profit by T+4.