Zhguo Jilong   

High apple price

Dear Readers,

Presumably, there is no longer selling at Sgd. 0.07. So today I just jump the queue and manage to buy 228 lots at Sgd. 0.075 at one shot. I shall maintain buying at this price every day.

 

Dear Nostradamus,

Okay, as you suggested, I shall follow suit.

 

Hi Hulumas,



If you have loads of money, you can always buy hundreds of lots each time the price falls.

 

profit warning on Dec 20, 06, resignation of finance manager on dec 29, 06.. I don't think it is wise to enter at this moment of time. my view.

 

Dear Readers,

Today, I manage to get another 145 lots of Zhongguo Jilong at Sgd 0.07. Personally, I strongly believe another 10,000 lots to go, will make it move forward, hopefully. Don't you all agree with me?

 

Dear Nostradamus,

Despite any profit warning, I shall keep buying for anticipating very good turn around business prospect for the year 2007. To day I buy 150 lots at Sgd 0.07. Keep money cost averaging avery 1 to 2 points down.

 

Issued a profit warning. Losses expected to have an adverse impact on FY06.

 

Dear Nostradamus,

UOBKH states only negative development of the group. How about positive side expansion of its peanut oil industry from 13,000 tons to 50,000 tons and 100,000 tons successively. Up to production of 50,000 tons of "Hou In Ji Long" brand peanut oil is on schedule and selling well so far. That will be the core part of the group income starting next year. Hence, very very prospective business indeed, commencing 2007 onward. I have no doubt about it.

 

Report from UOBKH:



3Q06 net profit fell 95% yoy to Rmb0.6m on flat sales of Rmb137.6m. This is mainly due to a fall in its gross margin from 15% in 3Q05 to 8% in 3Q06. A one-off loss from the disposal of obsolete inventories worth Rmb3.5m also adversely affected the bottom line. Results are below expectations.



Branded products are sold mainly in the domestic market. This segment experienced a 9.4% yoy fall in sales due to the Mid-autumn Festival (in 4Q06). Sales of the processed food segment rose 16% yoy on the back of the dumping of its inventory of raw materials.



As stated above, Jilong's gross margins were hurt by its dumping of inventories because of the more stringent requirements imposed on food and food products exported to Japan. Gross margin for the processed food segment fell to 5.7% in 3Q06 from 16.8% in 3Q05. Gross margin of branded products also fell to 11.8% from 13.3% in 3Q05 as competition intensified.



Jilong is likely to dispose of its remaining affected raw materials for the rest of FY06 and its margin is not likely to recover till early-07. As such, we cut our FY06 net profit forecast from Rmb46.7m to Rmb22m and FY07 net profit from Rmb51.5m to Rmb25.4m. Our DCF-based target price is also lowered from $0.13 to $0.09.

 

Yes, I buy another 200 lots today at Sgd 0.085. The buying game is still on.

 

Dear iPunter,

Yes, I have gotten another 100 lots at price 0.085, will queue again at 0.08 tomorrow, wish me luck. As I said, I won't expect several point to let go, but several folds, this particular counter I shall expect the price to reach Sgd 0.28 by sometimes next year.

 

At that price, you only need it to rise 1c to make you smile !!! 

 

Dear Singaporegal and Irene,

Thank you for the wishes. I have gotten the shares, and queue again at Sgd 0.085 doing immediate money cost averaging.

 

Hi singaporegal

I dont intend to buy into this counter.

Hi Hulumas

Good luck to you.

 

Good luck to both Hulumas and IreneL !

 

Dear Singaporegal,

Yes, you are right. Anyway I just give it a try queue to buy 100 lots at Sgd 0.09, as my study shows very high probability this counter being bottom out and having very fast recovery in the coming near future from this year market slump. I shall accumulate to reach my desire portion now, and hold for about 2 years.

 

Hi singaporegal

Many thanks for your message. I dont usually buy stocks on impulse just as I dont shop on impulse when I am away except when I am in the States!

However I agree with your views on the FA of a company's stocks - ie, unless I believe in its fundamentals, I wouldnt buy.  It also does'nt apply to me that I hold a stock for an upteenth length of time that I loose sight of its upwards price movement - I sell in this instance to take profit.

Have a great Aussie holidays. 

 

Hi Hulumas,

This counter is a penny stock also.... I don't bother with penny stocks because the TA analysis may not be accurate due to volatility.

 

Thank you for your description. I may ask Singaporegal TA expert.

 

For trend analysis, it is best you address it to Singaporegal, as practically all of us here rely on her for trend guidance.

Beside that, you can get yourself genned up on TA principles either through attending the Teraseeds sessions or buy yourself a good book (google for it first).  Self-study is preferred, as then you can do digest stuff at your own pace. Success does not come overnight. And also, very importantly, TA is not the answer to all stock market problems. The human side of the equation plays a big part. Very often, the scale of this equation is tipped by human nature.