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reported this morning
0213 GMT [Dow Jones] BMD Crude Palm Oil (CPO) Futures are tipped to open 20-30 points higher due to a bullish outlook for corn and soyoil in the USDA& apos s WASDE report released yesterday, with Dalian and CBOT counterparts as well as crude oil positive, says an executive at Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage he adds " exports look quite good, too, and demand-supply fundamentals are supportive
bishan22 ( Date: 10-Feb-2011 10:22) Posted:
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Crude palm oil futures on Malaysia’s derivatives exchange Wednesday rose to their highest levels in almost three years with support from supply-demand fundamentals and gains on external exchanges, market participants said.
The gains came despite an expected tightening of Chinese monetary policy. The People’s Bank of China said Tuesday it was raising benchmark lending and deposit rates by 25 basis points each, effective Wednesday, the first working day after the week-long Lunar New Year holiday.
“Looks like the rate hike in China has had little impact,” said an executive at a Kuala Lumpur-based brokerage.
The market will continue to set fresh record highs and could test MYR4,000 a metric ton again as soon as Thursday, said another trading executive in Kuala Lumpur.
“The spot-month contract hit MYR4,000/ton (Wednesday),” she said. “This is a good sign.”
Market participants said they are now expecting a 16.9% drop in Malaysia’s January palm oil output from the previous month, a tad larger than previously thought.
The benchmark April contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended 1.1% higher at MYR3,931 a metric ton, after rising as high as MYR3,948/ton, a level not seen since March 2008.
Sentiment was supported by gains in palm oil and the soy complex on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as it reopened Wednesday after the week-long Lunar New Year break.
Chicago Board of Trade March soyoil also ended 0.6% higher overnight at 58.77 cents a pound overnight, and was up 39 points in screen trade around 1015 GMT.
“We maintain a bullish view of the soybean market over 2011,” Macquarie Commodities Research said in a report released late Tuesday.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture February report due later Wednesday will provide estimates of stocks and output.
“We expect the USDA will also trim the U.S. soybean ending stocks estimate with a further increase to export demand,” Macquarie said. “Due to an extremely tight U.S. balance sheet, U.S. soybean acreage would need to expand roughly 2 million acres with unchanged demand year-on-year to provide a comfortable ending stocks level for the 2011-12 season,” it said.
On Thursday, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board is due to issue January output and stocks data, while cargo surveyors Intertek Agri Services and SGS (Malaysia) Bhd. will provide Feb. 1-10 export estimates.
Soy demand from China is likely to remain firm, aiding palm oil prices further, said a Singapore-based trader.
Traders estimate that Malaysia’s palm oil exports for Feb. 1-10 will be around 430,000 million metric tons. That’s up almost 30% from SGS’s estimate of Jan. 1-10 exports at 331,655 million tons, and up about 43% from Intertek’s estimate of 300,250 million tons for the same period.
Volumes were strong in the cash market, with palm olein for April, May and June delivery changing hands at $1,290-$1292.50/ton, free-on-board Malaysian ports, a Singapore-based trading executive said.
Cash CPO for prompt shipment was offered MYR45 higher at MYR3,960/ton.
Indonesia Commodities & Derivative Exchange rupiah-denominated April palm oil was last at IDR11,510/ton, up about 1.1% from yesterday’s settlement price.
Open interest on the BMD decreased to 88,849 lots compared to 91,045 lots Tuesday. Volumes were good, with a total of 27,929 lots traded versus 22,138 lots. One lot is equivalent to 25 tons.
bishan22 ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 19:49) Posted:
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Golden Agri agrees to " forest-friendly" charter
JAKARTA | Wed Feb 9, 2011 2:17am EST
Feb 9 (Reuters) - Giant palm oil producer Golden Agri Resources said on Wednesday it would work with Indonesian government and green groups to set new environmental standards after coming under pressure from eco groups orchestrating a boycott of the firm's products.
Golden Agri and its subsidiary PT SMART Tbk were given a mixed score card last year in an independent environmental audit and Greenpeace accused the firm of clearing peatland and forests that sheltered endangered species.
The forest clearing accusations led buyers such as Burger King , Nestle and Unilever to stop buying palm oil from firms like SMART.
The Forest Trust, a non-profit organisation that seeks to promote green business methods, said the total area of land allocated for oil palm production has more than tripled globally since the early 1980s, reaching nearly 14 million hectares in 2007, and that most of the expansion took place in Indonesia.
" Golden Agri has developed a Forest Conservation Policy (FCP) in collaboration with The Forest Trust and is aimed at creating long-term sustainable growth for Golden Agri and the palm oil industry," the company said in an emailed statement.
" The FCP also aims to ensure that GAR has no deforestation footprint," the statement added.
Greenpeace said it would closely monitor the firm to make sure it stuck by the agreement.
" On the paper, the latest commitment by Golden Agri is a big step towards ending their involvement in deforestation," said Bustar Maitar, its forest campaigner.
The World Bank named Indonesia the world's third largest emitter in 2005 and the southeast Asian country is now under intense international pressure to halt the destruction of peat swamps in the fight against climate change.
(Reporting by Michael Taylor Writing by Olivia Rondonuwu)
Golden Agri-Resources
Feb 8 close: S$0.715
OCBC Investment Research, Feb 8GOLDEN Agri-Resources should continue to get a good lift from the sustained run-up in crude palm oil (CPO) prices over the next few months, underpinned by supply-side issues brought on by bad weather conditions in both Malaysia and Indonesia - two of the largest CPO producers in the world.
Also likely to keep prices buoyed is the persistent rise in the price of edible oil substitutes like soy and corn, where the supply is also blighted by errant weather conditions the sharp rise in crude oil prices back to around US$100 per barrel on the back of worries of widespread unrest in the Middle East may also re-ignite the bio-diesel link.
On the demand side, we believe that consumption of palm oil will continue to be fuelled by the growing affluence of India and China, the world's top two importing nations. According to a report last September by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), China is expected to import around 7.2 million metric tonnes (MT) of palm oil in 2010, an increase of 13 per cent over the 6.4 million MT imported in 2009. As for India, the USDA predicts that the sub-continent will import some 7.0 million MT in 2010, which is an increase of 9 per cent versus the 6.4 million MT imported in 2009.
We last raised our base CPO price assumption in December last year from US$900 a tonne to US$950 a tonne, and we expect to see prices edging up even more in early 2011 before dropping off after mid-June 2011. However, given the confluence of negative factors driving up food prices in general, which could keep food prices elevated for an extended period, we may again see the need to raise our base assumption in the near future. Currently, CPO futures are hovering around US$1,280 a tonne, up from an average of US$1,071 a tonne in Q4 2010.
On the other hand, the supply issues would also mean a lower production volume for Golden Agri, though management expects higher CPO prices to offset the dip. However, higher CPO prices also attract progressively higher export taxes, acting as a slight drag on profitability. In any case, with Q4 2010 results due soon, we hold off adjusting our estimates. Maintain 'buy' and S$0.91 fair value for now.
BUY
As long as Europe and the Dow are still " guai-guai" (good boy) like now,
there's no need to worry too much. In fact the Dow chart is beautifully strong...
Thus, the world is not coming to an end... at least not yet...
Sept11 ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 17:47) Posted:
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stocksburntme ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 10:48) Posted:
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It will 'chiong' when those who are 'gian-gian' will not want to buy...
GuavaXF30 ( Date: 09-Feb-2011 08:12) Posted:
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iPunter ( Date: 08-Feb-2011 21:16) Posted:
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LONDON, Feb 8 (Reuters) - Oil, industrial metals and grain
stumbled on Tuesday after China raised interest rates, but the
reaction may be short-lived since hefty underlying demand from
the top global consumer of commodities is expected to persist.
Brent oil prices slipped further below $100 a barrel, and
copper lost its perch above $10,000 after China lifted rates by
25 basis points, the second increase in just over six weeks.
" Obviously it's a knee-jerk reaction and the market is now
again thinking China won't be consuming so much," said David
Wilson, commodities strategist at Societe Generale in London.
Analysts pointed out that in the past when China increased
interest rates to keep a lid on inflation, commodity prices did
not take long to rebound.
" Up to now such action by China has only brought a
short-term reaction in commodity markets and prices rose again
in a few days," said Carsten Fritsch, commodities analyst at
Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
" I think a long-term impact on commodity prices is unlikely.
I do not expect Chinese rates to rise to a level which would
cause a collapse in economic growth."
Other factors would also probably keep supporting
commodities, such as unrest in Egypt and the Middle East,
analysts said.
OIL EXTENDS LOSSES
U.S. oil futures were already soft ahead of data due later
on Tuesday that were expected to show a rise in U.S. crude
inventories.
" Sentiment-wise (the rate increase) is concerning. Otherwise
everyone knows that demand growth is slowing this year," said
Andrey Kryuchenkov, an analyst with VTB Capital.
China recently overtook the United States as the largest
energy consumer, according to the International Energy Agency.
U.S. crude futures shed $1.08 to $86.40 a barrel by 1345 GMT
. Brent crude prices also dropped, down $1.08 to $98.17 a
barrel.
BUYING OPPORTUNITY
In industrial metals, some investors saw the weakness as a
buying opportunity.
" The mid- to long-term fundamentals (for metals) are intact
it has nothing to do with whether China raises rates. In base
metals, not in oil, we'll probably be taking advantage of some
of these corrections," said Pau Morilla-Giner, head of
commodities and senior portfolio manager at London and Capital.
Overall global demand for copper, mainly used in
construction and power, is still expected to outpace supply this
year, analysts said.
Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange slid to $9,965
a tonne, falling through the $10,000 milestone it achieved last
year and down from Monday's $10,045 close.
Tin, which earlier on Tuesday touched a fresh all-time peak
of $31,650 a tonne, pared gains to $31,400.
Gold bucked the trend to climb, however, since as a
safe-haven asset it has different demand dynamics.
" Chinese investment or jewellery buying has been pretty
strong over the last quarter, and I wouldn't have thought that
it is going to slow down particularly," said Societe Generale
analyst David Wilson.
In addition, a number of speculators and other investors had
already exited gold in recent weeks, shifting to other assets
that would benefit from stronger global economic recovery, shown
in recent data from Europe and the United States.
Spot gold gained 0.9 percent to $1,362.30 an ounce, set for
a second consecutive weekly rise but still about 4 percent below
record highs struck in mid-December.
GRAINS FUNDAMENTALS STILL STRONG
U.S. and European grain prices followed the crowd in
weakening, but analysts said strong fundamentals would likely
quickly reassert themselves.
The world's top buyer Egypt has returned to the market, the
USDA is expected to trim its estimate for wheat ending stocks
and more frigid weather is expected in the U.S. grain belt.
" The whole commodity sector seemed to catch a cold after
the Chinese interest rate rise but the background fundamentals
for grains remain supportive with the Egyptian unrest still not
resolved and new tenders in the market from Turkey, Iraq and
Bangladesh," a European trader said.
Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat for March delivery fell
0.67 percent to $8.53 per bushel after it settled up 5 cents at
$8.58-3/4 per bushel on Monday.
Euronext March milling wheat was down 2.25 euros or 0.81
percent at 275.50 euros a tonne.
(Additional reporting by Amanda Cooper, Melanie Burton and
Zaida Espana in London, Svetlana Kovalyova in Milan, Michael
Hogan in Hamburg and Valerie Parent in Paris editing by Anthony
Barker)
" kor pio moh sai sng-sng" .
" Jangan main2 dengan saham"
(" Don't play with shares" )...
cathylmg ( Date: 08-Feb-2011 20:57) Posted:
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