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Fellowship of the Shares

Ray,

About darkroom ops, no hands on cos budget constraint.  Gave up photography.  Took up meditation instead, no need $!  keke

 

Hi Sporegal

Yes,australia is a big country....here it is like no car and u have no legs.

For those wine lovers,will take a drive down south to the vineyard and sample all the free wine.

Spore so small,U ppl may have bump into one another everyday...hahaha.

 

May 24, 2007 - Gurus Explain Why They Were Wrong About the Stock Market

The top ten reactions, from the bottom...

10. You took my statement out of context, leaving out all the obfuscatory elaboration, conditional clauses, counterpoints and equivocations. Your judgment is unfair.

9. I was close enough. You should give me credit.

8. I will be right eventually; I just don't know when. (Or sometime later: I was right, but my timing was off.)

7. I may be wrong on some little things, but I'm dead right on all the big ones. You shouldn't count the little ones.

6. I provide risk assessments based on historical tendencies, not forecasts. You should not call it wrong. The low probability scenario happened, so it was just bad luck.

5. My public statements may be sometimes wrong, but I am 100% right in my private newsletter. You have to pay for the good stuff.

4. Since I am rich and famous, I must be smart. Since I am smart, I must be right. Quid est demonstrandum. No need to check up on me any more.

3. If brokers weren't so manipulative and investors so gullible, what I said would happen would have happened. You should give me credit for my compelling argument.

2. The Plunge Protection Team (or the President, or the Vice President and his cabal, or the Treasury Secretary, or the Federal Reserve, or the Japanese, or the Chinese) intervened to prop up the market. You shouldn't count that against me.

1. What forecast? Let me tell you about a great new investment opportunity!

 

Do Stocks Ever Hit Analyst Target Prices?

Using a filtered sample of about 100,000 individual 12-month stock price targets from Thomson Financial over the period 1997-2002, the authors conclude that:

• Stock prices are at or above analyst targets at the end of 12-month prediction periods only 26% of the time. Stock prices reach analyst targets sometime during 12-month prediction periods only 35% of the time.
• Stock price targets are more likely to be met when: (1) market returns over the 12-month forecast period are higher; (2) analysts have more experience; and, (3) analysts are employed by the largest brokerage houses.The higher the target relative to the current stock price, the less likely the stock price will reach the target. Surprisingly, volatile stocks are less likely to meet targets.
• Analysts do not show persistent differences in abilities to forecast target prices. They do exhibit persistent differences in forecasting earnings and in picking stocks.
• The market does react to stock price targets but seems to understand that hitting stock price targets involves more luck than skill.

In summary, analyst stock price targets are not good predictors of actual stock price potentials. Analysts exhibit this poor performance because they want to express optimism about the stocks they cover and have no compensation incentives or public accountability related to stock price targets.

 

Yes, Hokkaido onsens!  I once did a spa treatment in Hokkaido, was in a private room.  And because the steam was so darn hot, I had to open a window to take a breather...and to my pleasant surprise, below my room in the open were 6 stark naked Japanese ladies soaking in the water.  hahah.

Oh and by the way, those spas I mentioned of, in Germany (Baden Baden to be exact), were public nude spas.  I felt a little strange in there.  :)

 

hey colorado, apologies missed your post in this fast moving thread:

why watch out for UIC:

because its bollies are tight and breakout appears imminent.

going by its previous data, a UIC breakout is worth abt 20% upside. However, the caveat is a holding period of at least 15 trading sessions for this value to be realised. note elf not vested yet ah.

also note that current macrotrends are very weak. Yes the STI went up, but market is in fact mixed, and losing momentum.

If you're vesting in UIC for a breakout, be prepared that the prevailing macrotrend (unease over shanghai and looking to dow for cues) may very well mess up this breakout; the way a macrotrend messed up HB's breakout in Feb. all very time-dependent now.

as for when the bears will come. haha, don't havta see who's right lah. ultimately it's abt making money. right or wrong doesn't much matter. besides, let's not speculate. gotta see what is.

 

 

bunnie! *hugs* yeps, my kitten and bunnie are very well behaved. rogue is a class all his own. keke. like them all tho! mineee! haha. :P

singaporegal, depends on why i go on the hols for. if it's backpacking (ie, to see the place), that's budget, but if i'm going on a luxury tour, then i'll spend.

spa...ooh....hokkaido onsens (hotsprings) in winter....in a cedar wood tub, or hot spring, with the snow falling all around you, and a mountain scene before you...ooh. *envy rayphua* sigh....mebbe get my fren to bring me there. hahahahaa.

spas are lovely...you just soak there, as alfian sa'at says, 'the skinlessness of water', and just soak in all the peace and heat. ahhhh.....and with some good alcohol....double ahhhhh. *hahahaaa* :P

btw, anyone got into eastern, as per my sunday post? shplayer (thanks da gege) just informed me, 2 for 1 split. heehee. elf very happy. heehee.

 

U.S. stock index futures pointed to a weaker market open on Monday as investors were rattled by an 8 percent decline in the Chinese stock market.

 

Adrianpang, yeah, some of those shots were taken at Raffles.  It's too bad the camera is so heavy, 5kg with L-lenses so I didn't take them on my other trips out of Singapore.  Hey, you actually know how to operate the darkroom eh?

Singaporegal, have you tried spas in the nordic countries, or in Germany?  I think they are absolutely the coolest.  Tried an open air spa where the water was so warm and it was snowing down while I was in there.  Very enchanting.

 

hi RT... i missed singing that song too... our version then was.....

"Nobody loves me, nobody cares... so I gonna eat some worms....
Big fat juicy ones, small thin tiny ones,  see how they wiggle and squirm ...

Bite off their heads (umph), suck in in their juice(sheezzzz), and throw their skins away (ka pui)
Nobody cares, just how i survived, on worms three times everyday..."

 

Hey geojam,

Actually I envy you... you live in a big country. When you get sick of the city, you just take a drive and you reach the mountains, lakes or even another city.

 

Singapore is just so..... small.....  

 

Hi elfie,

Do you spend much on holidays? I mostly spend on food and spa ...... I stuff myself crazy on local food but I don't really spend much on shopping.


 

 

Ray,

Thanks for info, my camera, also Canon EOS slr but not digital.  Bought it more than a decade ago.  Was into photography but quit cos no way to have my own dark room,  but that too has become a dinosaur cos with digital no need to have drak room facility, ya. 

Great shots you have there, recognised some were taken at Raffles Hotel ya?

 

elf,  my definition on BB - thanks for the compliment leh.

 

sudden urge to "sing" a camp song in poly times:

 

"nobody loves me, everybody hates me, i gonna eat some worms

fat ones, skinny ones, thinny little squirky ones, see how they wiggle and squirk

i bite off their heads (umph), suck off their blood (sheezzzz), and throw their skin away (ka pui)

nobody knows, how i feed on worms, three times everyday..."

 

heh elfie, not fair. me and kitten not like pet dog. see, rogue, u gave us a bad name :p

 

aiya, no worrie Elf, your hp drop into water before your contract end, just ask me.

I got several spare ones lying around...

lol... 

 

lol. oh puppie....as though i would. but hahaha, you see, with pets, gotta keep them on their toes at times. if they think you really really like them, then they're likely to run riot on you. esp the rogue. hahahahaha!

ahhh...jerome, you see, it's not only a qn of the mammoth, it's a qn of the right mammoth. ommmmm....

:P

rayphua, eh, my hp is normally on sotto voce mode lah. so can't hear in crowded places. but yes, a new hp wld be good. am just hoping mine can tahan the 5 mths left to end of contract.

but hhhmmmm....betting with my pets/pet's friend no fun. must increase difficulty level. haha. hows abt you and i have a bet instead? *grin* that'd be fun for the popcorn crowd. :P

altho, taht means we need to find a counter where we disagree on, whcih might be difficult!

*grin*

there there puppy, missy sayang you, ok? *patpat*

haha.

 

 

very sad... to think my master actually used "the style" which was "applied" on dat "pei hor", and "used" it on me... heart damn broken, of all the "styles of writing used", pian pian had to use dat "pei hor" style on me.. nowadays "ta pao bu ping" no longer in the trend liao, ganging up with someone and used "pei hor" style is the in thing... and somemore wanna combined forces and let me hara-kiri.. "whimper off liao".. next time i oblivious to the "surroundings" liao... sighz...

 

haha, yes, a hp that actually has an answer button would be helpful.  ;)