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Is Biosensors a good buy?

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gbleng
    01-Jul-2010 09:46  
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Why is it that their news always coincide with a market "crash/downturn".  Fengshui really stinks..... ask chairman Lu to do something....
 
 
investor
    30-Jun-2010 14:30  
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I think that it makes sense for Biosensors to acquire Cardiomind. At a cost of only  US$1.1m and re-location cost of another US$1m, the asset looks cheap compared to the costs incurred by the previous owner.

The company has already obtained CE mark for their bare metal stent, and have conducted 2 clinical trials for their drug eluting stent using the bio-degradable polymer, PLA and the drug Sirolimus.

The 2nd clinical trial call CARE II results would probably be out soon (or it may have been out already), and I am sure that it is only a matter of time before they apply for CE mark.

This product called the Sparrow by Cardiomind, caters for vessels below 2.5mm, and my understadning is that quite a number of patients (maybe 30-40 %0)  may fall into this category, and with the current crop of DES, it probably would  not be suitable for these patients, or the doctors would strain the DES to get it thru the patients.

You would recall that J & J paid US$1 billion just to get Conors technology of their stent design, and I am sure that Cardiomind must have fallen on bad times (inability to get funding, just like Xtent), in order for them to sell their assets.

As Biosensors already have their mkting infrastructure in place, in Europe, Asia, it would be easy for them to cross-sell the Sparrow, as it complements the their product (Note that it does not cannibalise their existing product).

Conclusion - Not much downside to Biosensors, but potential upside can be good.

Personal observation. Not a call to buy/sell.

 
 
 
KuaiLAN
    30-Jun-2010 12:32  
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i think u mean consolidating in a triangle.....  should buy for the breakup..........then sell.



Isolator      ( Date: 08-Jun-2010 14:36) Posted:

If nothing goes wrong it should rebound in short term...and should go back down again... Just my feeling again... Smiley

 

 
allright
    30-Jun-2010 11:54  
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This is an US company? BIG should come out to explain their strategy for buying some of the assets of this company
 
 
KuaiLAN
    30-Jun-2010 09:55  
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Dont short this stock, it has potential for a rally!!!
 
 
lostbell
    30-Jun-2010 06:47  
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BIOSENSORS ACQUIRES CERTAIN ASSETS OF CARDIOMIND, INC.
 

 
allright
    28-Jun-2010 11:31  
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Hey looks llike some action? Any reason?
 
 
allright
    08-Jun-2010 15:06  
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Thank You Justforfun. Nomura is very detailed  and much more in depth then CS
 
 
Isolator
    08-Jun-2010 14:36  
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If nothing goes wrong it should rebound in short term...and should go back down again... Just my feeling again... Smiley
 
 
JustForFun
    08-Jun-2010 14:32  
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Key takeaways from investor meetings (Nomura)

 

Investing in sales & marketing. Having received approvals in most key DES markets (ex-US, Japan and China), BIG's key focus is to drive market share gains organically in FY11 with its BioMatrix stent. While ASP decline is inevitable, BIG looks to establish more direct sales to enjoy the ASP upside.

 

Geographical mix: 70% EMEA/30% Asia. Management reveals its geographical revenue mix, which is tilted towards Europe. As such, BIG is exposed to a weak EUR. However, we believe the negative impact will not be passed through fully to the bottom-line as a significant portion of its cost base is denominated in EUR. We estimate a 5% negative impact on its bottom-line on a 10% decline in EUR. Management will provide updates on the FX impact on its revenue guidance in 1Q11 results.

 

Prioritizing strategic plans: China JV restructuring>dual listing. Investors question the potential of a dual listing in NASDAQ to achieve higher valuations. Management do not deny the possibility, but emphasized that its priority is to restructure its China stent JV which they hope to use as a distribution channel to sell its BioMatrix in China.

 

Key catalyst: Nobori's Japan approval in FY11F. Management highlighted that Terumo's Nobori, whose technology is licensed from Biosensors, is likely to be approved in Japan in the near term (5~18 months, according to different sources). We believe this will be a key milestone for BIG given that it is well-positioned to benefit from Terumo's dominance in Japan via revenue-sharing.

 

Other interesting facts. i) JWMS has a net cash of approximately US$50mn on its balance sheet; ii) BioMatrix's unit cost (manufactured in Singapore) is at least 40% lower than Terumo's Nobori (manufactured in Japan), which reaffirms our view of the potential synergies under a takeover scenario (Moving past the inflexion point, 16 Oct 2009). iii) Total R&D investment for BioFreedom clinical trials is approximately US$60mn over 3~4 years for CE Mark approval.

  Valuation Methodology and Investment Risks: We value Biosensors on a SOTP methodology- DCF for is base business, Terumo royalties and BioMatrix (9.7% WACC), 9.2x exit P/E to account for DES business valuation. We value its 50% stake in JWMS at 22x P/E. Key risks: i) Stent pricing pressure in China; ii) exposure to a weak Euro

 

 

 
iPunter
    08-Jun-2010 08:20  
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I like the way you think "meaty"... hehehe... Smiley


susan66      ( Date: 06-Jun-2010 20:55) Posted:

Yes, agree it's a shorting counter. Actually last Monday close low at 0.78 is not a good sign already, next day gap down may be a shorting signal around 0.77. MACD shows selling momentum is getting stronger. However, not much meat yet as volume still thin. Smiley 34

 
 
topdog22
    08-Jun-2010 06:02  
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sounds like you shorted stock already
 
 
lowchia
    07-Jun-2010 08:56  
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Look out for bio sensors today...see if it gap down alot haha
 
 
susan66
    06-Jun-2010 20:55  
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Yes, agree it's a shorting counter. Actually last Monday close low at 0.78 is not a good sign already, next day gap down may be a shorting signal around 0.77. MACD shows selling momentum is getting stronger. However, not much meat yet as volume still thin. Smiley 34
 
 
lowchia
    06-Jun-2010 20:28  
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On Friday, Biosensor has been trying hard to break its major resistance at $0.78 but closed at closed at $0.765 with low volume of 3.9 million shares traded.

The “shooting star” and “hanging man” marked for 2 consecutive days confirmed that Biosensor has a ridge task going pass $0.765. The fact that the volume has decreased over the past few days has even made the task harder.

Both RSI & MACD are bearish with both indicators staying flat.  

Important Resistance of Biosensor: $0.78

Immediate Support of Biosensor: $0.75

We do not suggest buying this counter as the prices displayed a “Double Top” with Biosensor at the critical neckline support.

CLICK TO SEE ANALYSIS FOR KEPCORP


However it will be a good prospect for shorting if Biosensor falls through the support at $0.75 at high volume.
 

 
iPunter
    04-Jun-2010 08:37  
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Most probably "jia goo sai" (relishing bull dung)... Smiley




XiaoMaGe888      ( Date: 03-Jun-2010 15:37) Posted:

Smiley CS =Cjia Sai analyst Smiley

 
 
topdog22
    04-Jun-2010 03:22  
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Senior:

Do NOT know why CS is so far off the mark.  It does seem that their analysis is Biased.  Perhaps there is some grudge?? 

It seems apparant that their management does not review the analysis for once again they will be proven wrong, which can not be good for their firm's reputation.

 
 
 
XiaoMaGe888
    03-Jun-2010 15:37  
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Smiley CS =Cjia Sai analyst Smiley
 
 
allright
    03-Jun-2010 08:28  
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Thanks you are the topdog .At least nomura's  target is still at $1.17. CS is really way below. What are the other analyst's views? The newspaper only reported on CS lousy target of .75 even though BIG beat their LOW estimate by 32%.... .Du from CS didn't explain why he was so well off the mark.
 
 
topdog22
    02-Jun-2010 22:34  
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Sorry about the font mix-up  Don't know what happened.  (interesting the sell-off is such light volume)  SEE Below:

Last try at this.

Growing sales force in direct markets, sales growth weighted towards

 

2HFY11 – BIG is investing in its direct sales force in meaningful markets such as

 

France and added headcount earlier in the year. Coupled with the promotion at

 

major cardiology conferences (EuroPCR in May, TCT in Aug), management

 

expects sales growth to be weighted towards 2HFY11.

 

�� Revenue guidance of US$135-145mn maintained, but subject to FX risk – We

 

estimate about 60% of BIG’s revenue is generated from the EU, but it also has a

 

sizeable cost base in euros. Net-net, we estimate a 5% negative impact on the

 

bottom line with a 10% decline in the euro.

 

�� BioMatrix’s approval in China – Management remains cautious on its guidance

 

for BioMatrix’s approval in China, as regulatory standards in China have become

 

more complex. Jack Wang, the COO of Biosensors/CEO of JWMS, is in direct

 

conversations with the SFDA, which appears to be requiring a few more advanced

 

clinical data.

 

�� No further updates on JV relationship with Weigao – Management reiterated

 

that the two companies remain in active and productive conversation.

 

�� Background on new CEO – Currently the head of global sales and marketing, Mr

 

Jeffrey B Jump has over 27 years experience in the medical device industry. He

 

joined Biosensors in 2003 as managing director for EMEA and was responsible for

 

establishing the company’s European headquarters in Switzerland.

 

 
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