SGX    Last:14.36    +0.22

SGX

Chinkaisu...thanks for the clarification...

Well...that was what i thought initially too...and i can understand that view...


But what if we consider this cases....
When these analysts keep revising TPs...which often states 12-mth target, and which many gets broken with a short while...one starts to wonder...


Morever, every now and then we receive/read consolidations of TPs from brokerage firms etc...'without dates' on when these reports were released...

One starts to question the logic of all these...right?


Another point is that whenever these analyst do a call for buy, sell, hold etc...based on latest reports...even a small upside they do a buy call. If its 12 mth...well..u know what i mean.

Btw EastonBoy...this last pt is the reason why i said these reports kinda tell us all these counters are overvalued...in the sense that if it takes 12 mths to reach this TP, after u draw a line from now til then....if the slope is too little, it could mean the 'current' price is overvalued, esp when there is a recent surge....got wat i mean??

 

I cannot help commenting on

solar2000 Member	Posted: 10-Oct-2007 14:21
x 0 x 0 * Alert Admin	IMO, any counters that is less than 20% off TP is overvalued right now.   In my understanding... TP is 12 mth target...meaning year end. Now is October, 3 mths more.....shld be ard 20% less. (exclusive of any unannounced good or bad news that is) So any counters thats less than 20% off TP...shld not buy...or rather shld sell... Personally, I only buy those counters with over 30-50% upside of TP..

 

I think solar2000, you got it wrong... TP 12months means Target Price in 12 months, not up to December,  you can also have TP 6 months which is Target Price in 6 months...

 

I meant to say "...Funny that all the reports you received somehow tell you counters are overvalued.

 

solar, noted your comment.. the best way for you to find out to give a call to your remiser and see what he/she said abt TP. Why guess when u can get answer from a reliable source. Funny that all the reports you received somehow tell you they are oversold.

 

phew, managed to bailed out at 15.8 with 5 lots, hope tomorrow morning shoot up again and i can sell for some beer money.

good luck to you too

 

wish you good luck then. i bought at 15.5 sold 16.. 2 lots. But yesterday bought at 16.5.. 5 lots.. die already lor. haha

 

Sort of agree with you and thank you for your kind advice

likewise, been making lots of beer money from shorting this counter and hence, feel that i will only give up when i am hit once, today maybe

Will buy back before the market closes for the day

Thanks and good luck

 

i think u cannot short today lor. last few days still alright. i shorted a few times & won a few hundreds. but today very difficult to go below 15.8 leh. ... and u muz buy back 15.7 b4 u can make money leh.. yesterday already wipe out major contra player, today juz a few left i feel..

 

Short 2 lots SGX at 15.9 and hope for the best 

 

Hi psycho, its a mix of both, but its more the trading volume.


But as i said, i feel the recent increase Q-profit is more of the trading volume is mainly from recent major correction, which is one is quite few years. And thats also where the analyst are mixed.whether it is sustainable.


Longterm wise, ok, Again, which china company is not going up long term too.

 

As for current price , i feel is more speculated than justified

Perhaps like what our MMlee just said recently...market is too exaberant, not based on fundamentals....

 

Come to think of it again, the 12 mth mentioned by EastonBoy is not logical.

If it is like what he said, then almost evey other counters are overvalued...right?

It shld be more like year end, like i mentioned.


The Raffles hotel example given by him is not logical too. Its an ikan bilis and non-listed company non-govenrment linked compared to SIA, ST and SGX. IMO that is.


Think abt it.

As for whether current drop is due to shortist or not, is not logical too. Shorting exist for valid reasons and will usually be successful if a counter is overvalued perceived.


Just my 2 cents.

 

Sorry, not meant to interupt into ur discussions, may i know, how did SGX determind their profit/loss ?

By means of the number of companies listed and also the daily trading volumes and amount of $ traded ?

If is the case, i personally feel that with the dialy trading volumes at average 3 billions (trading at 2 over billions dollars) also with many new companies (especially foreign companies) listed, prices of this counter will continue to be on the uptrend....the drop could just be work of shortings and profit takings for the day.

Correct me if i am wrong as i am also learning and sharing my personl views, no offence intended at any one.

 

Ok...maybe i was wrong to comment on those analyst TPs...

Maybe we shld consult some experts on this 12mth meaning???

Still...my other views remain intact... 

 

I wanna add...EastonBoy...

I think u are too uptight over the use of words....take things easy...

No offence ")

 

 

Hi EastonBoy,

Like u said...its everyone opinion and up to everyone to interprete...no need to argue... 

Following ur understanding that 12 mth target is 12 mth from release, then current SGX price is even worse right??

(And that is to mean most counters are overvalued too...right?? )



As for ur Raffles Hotel example, afiak, its not considered (too) government-linked/controlled compared to ST, SIA and SGX. While SGX concerns our stocks market and finiancial system almost directly, if not indirectly.


Wrt the takeover rumor, its printed on ST. I said 'investment' stake is more possible. Which part did u read wronly or i wrote wrongly?? Hmm


I believe I wrote my views in simple and direct way. Logical or not up to everyone else to interprete....like u said...again..


Ps: As for so called sweeping statements...just pointing this out incase...
I had been using words like 'I believe', 'personally', 'imo', i 'inteprete'...im sure u can read them. Well..if just 1 or 2 less humble and opinionated sentence can offend u...then maybe i shld apoligise.. But again...like u said, everyone is entitled to their opinion. :)
Just my 2 cents....*hiazz......

 

solar2000, 12 months target, in my humble interpretation, is 12 months from the release of reports... how can it be calendar 12th months.. i.e. December. If the house releases the report in December, will the 12 mths target still be in December. i.e. it will reach the TP in a few days? No one dares to make this kind of prediction, I can bet with you. ...

 

no need for argument.. my pt is one should not made sweeping statement based on one call... i was trying to illustrate different houses can have different opinions and so do people. If you want to say it is overvalue... made it clear that "I think it is overvalued" than trying to hide behind some brokerage house's headline. People here are mature to accept differences in opinions. . in case you have not found out.

 

If Raffles hotel can be acquired by foreign company, why not others.. anyone can be a target except defense related industries which the govt has a primary responsibility to protect it. In the case of SGX, we are talking about only 5% stake.. taking over...? it's an M&A activity ! (disclaimer: i have no opinion as to whether SGX will go up and come down and if it will meet any of these houses call abt overvalue and undervalue)

 

 

 

Sound logical, has shot up drastically since last week.

Is it a case of what goes up quickly must come down quickly since its over-speculated.....

 

SGX gone case. No FA, TA good or bad also no use.


Todays Strarts Times also printed...Analysts are mixed whether its curretn quarter profit is sustainable.

Just think about it, recent correction was one major one in several years, obviously make more profit this quarter. Takeover news are unfounded and purely rumor. It impossible that SGX, a Local blue chip if u want to call it, could or would be acquired by a foriegn firm. Can u imagine SIA or ST begin acquired by foriegn firm? Investment more like it. Not take over.

Whichever, it has already been taken into current price, and any TP shld be taken as year end minus 20%, not current.


Why a few local analyst say buy and higher TP, I believe its to cover their backside and credibility. Just follow market price (or rather speculated price) make people happy. Whether foriegn analyst has hidden agenda, its anybodys guess. The rest, mostly say hold (which i interprete as sell normally)


Its definitely over-valued and over-speculated.

Just think abt it. If u are not long term investor in this, better sell and take profit.

I believe its coming down to $14 fast...or even $13...

 

Profit taking or purely sell on news????

 

I believe that uptrend may still be in place but it is running out of steam. The chaikin chart is showing weakness and Acc/Dist is becoming flat.

 

Guys, This stock is highly over-priced and looking at the under-perform rating, this is in dangerous territory..... better to dump and make profit now....