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no harm shorting now.... hehe... 
got profits can go for vacation.... hehe....
ppl say Nov 10.3 Dec 10.8.... dun believe.... Better Believe... hehe...
Now still a fair bit away from Xmas. If Xmas rally starts next week, by Xmas time, dun think there's enough steam to move the choo choo train. Year end window dressing effect probably will only start the week before Xmas. So, guess wat's going to happen next week??? 
cheongwee ( Date: 21-Nov-2009 21:12) Posted:
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If u thk dollar are lousy...read this
by Bryan Rich
Dear Cheongwee,
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The dollar has suffered a landslide of scrutiny and negative sentiment over the past eight months. Yet just nine months ago it was the currency that every investor and central banker in the world wanted to own! The world economy was on the ropes, and the dollar represented safety.
Since then, fear has gradually abated, optimism has returned and this dollar, safe-haven trade has been reversing.
Within this recent retracement of the U.S. currency there has been endless speculation about the future role of the dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. Moreover, there has even been conjecture that the dollar will no longer exist at some point in the near future.
But the case made for the vulnerability of the dollar falls short when it comes to naming alternatives ...
Sure, if you believe inflation will be a problem at some point in the future, the purchasing power of the dollar will fall. But against what? Against other major currencies? I don't think so.
If the Fed and other central banks around the world fail to remove the emergency stimulus before those measures translate into inflation, then ALL currencies will fall in value relative to hard, tangible assets like gold, real estate and other commodities ... even financial assets like stocks and bonds. That's global inflation.
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| The U.S. economic problems are pale in comparison to those of Japan's. |
Is that possible? Certainly is. And that's why the demand for gold, as a hard currency, has been rising. But I'm not arguing about inflation or deflation here today; rather I want to take a look at three of the often-suggested dollar alternatives.
Dollar Alternative #1—
The Japanese yen ...
Japan has one of the highest debt loads in the world, approaching nearly 200 percent of GDP. That's more than twice what is projected in the U.S. And Japan‘s economy has suffered the sharpest contraction of any major economy in 2009 and is expected, again, to underperform the U.S. economy in 2010.
If you don't like the dollar for its fundamental economic challenges, you surely can't like the yen.
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| The Brits are flooding their economy with billions of pounds. |
Dollar Alternative #2—
The British pound ...
The UK economy is the most troubled and most volatile major, developed market economy. The money-printing program in the UK has been the most aggressive in the world. In fact, The Bank of England is still expanding its money printing program, as other major economies are winding down.
And while the UK central bank continues injecting billions of pounds into zombie banks, the economy continues contracting. At the same time, other major economies have technically emerged from recession.
This makes the British pound perhaps the least desirable currency for global investors.
Dollar Alternative #3—
The euro ...
First, let's look at the two major drivers of currency values: Economic growth and interest rates ...
The Eurozone is expected to underperform the U.S. in 2009 and 2010. And the interest rate outlook for the Eurozone, as projected this week by the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is for rates to move from 1 percent to 2 percent by 2011.
But that's lower, both on an absolute and on a rate-of-change basis, when compared to the United States. In the U.S., the OECD expects rates to normalize to 2.25 percent to 2.5 percent by 2011.
So the Eurozone has weaker growth and lower interest rate prospects than the U.S. So the euro falls short of the dollar on both comparisons. Indeed, in terms of purchasing power parity, the dollar should be 26 percent stronger against the euro based on fundamentals.
Clearly the dollar wins over the euro ... the second most widely-held global currency ... from the facts I've laid out above.
The U.S. is ground zero of the financial crisis and is the largest economy in the world, so it's understandable why the world's focus has shifted here during the worst economy since the Great Depression. And that tunnel vision can play a big role in global sentiment toward the U.S. dollar, too.
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The U.S. economy has a burgeoning budget deficit, nearly 10 percent of GDP. And the debt load in the U.S. has risen from 65 percent of GDP before the crisis, to a projected 100 percent of GDP by 2011.
These are major issues for the administration to tackle. And these burdens threaten economic growth and recovery for the U.S., as well as the rest of the world, because of the world's heavy reliance on the American consumer.
But in the Eurozone, things aren't so rosy either ...
The common currency in Europe is only in its tenth year of existence. And just eight months ago, there was speculation of a potential breakup of the euro. Italy and Ireland were said to be threatening to withdraw from the euro.
Since the crisis began, the EU's Growth and Stability Pact, which sets the maximum budget deficit for euro member countries, hasn't just been disregarded ... it's been completely blown-out of the water!
Only seven of the sixteen countries are operating within the maximum limit, and some countries are running budget shortfalls three and four times bigger than the ceiling set forth.
These are major problems, both structurally and politically. But even with the stimulative spending programs, many of the weaker EU countries are still deep in recession.
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| Weaker euro members are stuck — they can't devalue their currency. |
Plus there's one key issue that threatens the viability of the common currency: These countries would typically turn to currency devaluations to help stem the bleeding in their economies by increasing exports. But remember, as members of the euro, they can't.
Even worse, they're dealing with a currency that's gained 20 percent over the last eight months against the currencies of two of their main trading partners: The U.S. and China.
To add to the challenges of the uneven economic performances within the Eurozone, the banking system in Europe is expected to see more write-downs of bad debt than that of U.S. banks.
So for those who think the euro is positioned to become the new primary world reserve currency — it's not likely.
A better bet, in my opinion, is that the problems in the euro area will fall under the microscope again. And the viability of the euro will, again, be brought into question.
In this era of globalization, economies around the world have proven to be highly correlated and highly interdependent. So while the global economy is piecing together a tepid recovery, when looking for viable dollar alternatives among other major liquid currencies ... there simply aren't any.
Regards,
Bryan
look at final hour...like ppl are buying on dip...next wk mrkt will be good.
Yup... I thinks there's a lot more juice... hehehe...
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Executive Money
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Published November 18, 2009  |
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Dow 10,000 today cheaper than 10 years ago
Price-earnings ratio stands at 18.9 now compared with 41.4 in 1999
But the return to 10,000 also serves as a bitter reminder that stocks have gone virtually nowhere, on balance, for more than a decade. It was in March 1999 that the Dow first climbed above 10,000, before soaring as high as 14,164 two years ago and plummeting as low as 6,547 this past March. Of course, the Dow gauges only stocks in the US, and a fairly narrow band of the market at that. And while domestic shares have appeared to run in circles for more than a decade, many global stock markets have prospered. Look a bit deeper, though, and you'll find that there have been some changes in the domestic market, too, in the last 10 years - and largely for the better. Some of them, however, are hard to see at first glance. For example, a majority of sectors have actually posted positive returns since the end of 1999 - in some cases sizeable gains. On average, including dividends, energy stocks have returned nearly 150 per cent, shares of consumer staples companies (like Procter & Gamble and others that sell necessities) have gained nearly 65 per cent and utility stocks have risen nearly 50 per cent.
'That's hardly what I would call a lost decade,' said James W Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management in Minneapolis. Market valuations are another consideration. By almost every measure, stocks are far cheaper at Dow 10,000 today than at Dow 10,000 in March 1999. Back then, the price-to- earnings ratio for domestic stocks stood at a very high 41.4. That's based on 10-year average earnings, a conservative measure that smoothes out short-term swings in corporate profits. Since then, using the same measure, the market's P/E has fallen to 18.9. While that's not necessarily a screaming bargain - the market's long-term average is closer to 16 - stocks are trading at a discount of more than 50 per cent to their 1999 prices. 'The reality is that stocks are like any other asset,' said Robert D Arnott, chairman of Research Affiliates, an investment consulting firm in Newport Beach, California. 'If you buy them cheap, there's a good chance you'll be happy very quickly. But if you buy them at expensive prices, you'll have to wait a long, long time to get rewarded. That's what investors have learned in the past decade.' Perhaps the most important change is the one that has occurred in many portfolios. Investors are generally more diversified today than they were a decade ago - and that has helped many households make money in an equity market that has been in neutral over all. Consider that in 1999, four economically sensitive sectors - technology, financial services, telecommunications and consumer discretionary stocks (which include automakers) - made up nearly two-thirds of the overall market. Those four areas also happened to be the four worst-performing groups over the last 10 years. Since the end of 1999, tech and telecom shares have lost nearly 8 per cent, annualised, according to Standard & Poor's. Financial shares, meanwhile, have fallen almost 3 per cent a year, on average, and consumer discretionary stocks are down nearly 2 per cent, annualised, S&P says. Today, these four sectors make up less than half of the market. At the same time, weightings have grown modestly in traditionally defensive areas of the market like health care, consumer staples and utilities. In fact, those three sectors now make up nearly a third of the S&P 500-stock index, up from less than 19 per cent in 1999. Diversification goes well beyond just sectors. Back in the late '90s, investors held about US$1 in foreign stocks for every US$8 held in domestic equities. That isn't terribly surprising, in that the domestic stock market back then was routinely delivering 20 per cent plus annual returns. Today, that ratio of foreign stocks to domestic shares stands at 1 to 3. -- NYT (NEW YORK) Investors may take some comfort now that the Dow Jones Industrial Average is back above 10,000 after slipping to around 9,700 at the end of October. |
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Going in and then coming out out is undisputedly juicy and profitable.
eg. those who got out at the 2007 peak would be enjoying much juice...
And they would have done well replenishing their juice by going in again at the bottom.
It is in the going in and then coming out that creates the juice,
And not holding forever and ever till the end of the world... hehehe...
So in and out is juicy?
iPunter ( Date: 21-Nov-2009 12:47) Posted:
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scared scared heart attack if too juicy !
iPunter ( Date: 21-Nov-2009 12:47) Posted:
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Which means plenty of juicy trading opportunities...hehehe...
Next week and December - Welcome back Mr. Volatility !
Very good...
which means STI will not be "lao saai" on Monday...
Hurray... maybe can go and watch an Imax movie today...
Cheong Wee,
U r rite again... Dow lastnite really din drop much...
| Dow | 10318.16 | -14.28 | -0.14% | 10342.72 | 10271.68 | 16:04:10 |
Cnt buy cheap again on Mon liao. Hope STI nxt wk can climb 2,800 pts...('',)
sorry...u refer to volatility index...my mistake
boyikao3 ( Date: 20-Nov-2009 08:36) Posted:
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