Neptune Orient L Rg   

NOL

NOL been oversold, may see a rebounce.

 

 

NOL

___3 mths ended Sep 2009___

Net Loss (S$M)___

-$196.38

 

Yangzijiang will soon replaced NOL and Cosco upgrade to BC status.......profitable company........

 

NOL & Cosco very soon either one will remove from BC status...

ROI25per      ( Date: 04-Nov-2009 10:31) Posted: the right price shld be 130

 

the right price shld be 130

 

NOL to be unprofitable into 2010; Cosco posts loss
Neptune Orient Lines, Southeast Asia’s largest container carrier, said “significant losses” will
probably continue through at least the first half of 2010 on slower world trade and a supply glut.

“Container-shipping freight rates remain at uneconomic levels,” Chief Executive Officer Ron
Widdows said in a statement yesterday as the company posted its fourth quarterly loss in a row.
China Cosco Holdings Co., operator of China’s largest container line, also reported a fourth
straight loss.

Average container rates fell 29% from a year earlier in the third quarter, Singapore-based NOL said,
as US and European consumers pared spending on Asian-made goods and new vessels entered service.

 

These 'anal-ists' simply do not have a grasps of reality. When red flags were raised in the 1st Q with a mind boggling $250 or thereabouts losses, they had the audacity to claim that NOL would turn around in qtr 3-a seasonally strong qtr. and that too despite poor guidance from NOL. Just looking at the sub par performance of NOLs competitors, quarterly and M-O-M trade numbers,falling BDI and the scale of the global trade slowdown, one would have thot they would have forecasted a larger than expected cumulative losses for the year. Now a TP of $1.48???!!!!!NOL macam superman, is it?Haiz....

 

Neptune Orient Lines Ltd: Trapped in choppy seas

Summary: Neptune Orient Lines Ltd’s (NOL) 3Q09 results came in below expectations. Revenue came in at US$1.6b (-33.5% YoY; +12.7% QoQ) and net losses narrowed by a marginal 5.0% sequentially to US$138.9m (vs. a US$35.1m profit a year ago). The extent of losses came as a disappointment as 3Q09 was supposed to have been a seasonally strong quarter. As we enter a seasonal lull in 4Q09, volumes and freight rates may come under further pressure. Overcapacity and weak demand continue to obstruct attempts at rate hikes. NOL expects to incur losses in FY09 and 1H10. We have widened our FY09 loss projection to US$684.4m (from US$410.5m) on lower revenue and margin assumptions. We rollover our valuation to FY10 and cut our fair value estimate to S$1.48 (previously S$1.68). Maintain HOLD. (Lee Wen Ching)


Haha... this MFT make my toes laugh !! expected loss almost 1 billion singapore dollar yet still can give TP 1.48 ???

 

 

Get ready to see more gapping down tomorrow....

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SINGAPORE - Neptune Orient Lines, the world's fifth largest container shipping firm, on Thursday reported a bigger-than-expected third quarter loss and warned that losses will continue at least until the first half of 2010.

The company posted a third-quarter net loss of US$139 million, compared with a net profit of US$35.8 million a year ago. The quarterly loss was also bigger than the consensus estimate of a US$109.5 million loss.

'Despite the cost saving measures that have been implemented and recent improvements in volumes and freight rates in certain trade lanes, NOL anticipates a continuation of adverse business operating conditions,' the company said in a statement.

'In view of the severity of the downturn in container shipping, the company expects to incur significant losses in the fourth quarter of 2009 and at least the first half of next year.'

The shipping firm is 67.4 per cent owned by Singapore state investor Temasek Holdings. -- REUTERS

 

Singapore port terminals handled 5.8 per cent fewer containers in September than in August, a downturn after two months of rises, and traffic was 16 per cent lower than a year earlier, government data showed.  

 

If we are not looking into long time frame, then this is worth keeping for next 2yr boom.
If there is really a boom, then this can go up fast. If no, just chop on trailing stop.

 

Owners are buying up probably to hold price for internal window dressing purposes.

Good time to sell with any trend up.

The company is losing BIG MONEY....

 

Neptune Orient Lines rated trading sell and target price of $1.65

CIMB-GK
13 October 2009 16:59 
 
NOL released its Period 9 (22 August to 18 September) operating numbers yesterday. For the first time this year, volume growth returned to positive territory at 1% y-o-y, while rates were sequentially stable at a 29% y-o-y decline. As a result, revenue decreased 28% y-o-y, the slowest pace of decline so far this year.

This was consistent with the peak season. We are maintaining our trading sell rating and target price of $1.65, even after rolling forward our target price to end-2010, now based on 1.1x P/BV (slightly increased from 1x previously), the mid-point of its historical 0.5-1.5x P/BV trading band. This excludes the super peak of 2.5x P/BV during mid-2007 which we do not expect to recur. Possible de-rating catalysts include an expected sequential rate and volume moderation in the coming winter months.

MAINTAIN TRADING SELL.

 

NOL’s container shipping operating Volume (FEU) for the 4 weeks (Period 8) from 25 July 2009 to 21 August 2009 is -7% comparing to FY2008. Big improvement! 

 

can break $2 today?

 

Let's see if he can cls. above 1.93 today n  try for 2.06 tomorrow ...........

Cheers for every investors !

jlkc007      ( Date: 02-Sep-2009 17:25) Posted: Seems like going to have a smooth sail on technical side if it doesn't close below 1.62 Have been trading in a channel since brk up from 1.07 on Mar 24. Lets c if the double top at 1.82 can be thru for the next leg up at 2.40-2.44 ( 50% ret.)     Stick closely to rules !!!!!

 

Yup... but not too long!... hehehe... 

beeper      ( Date: 05-Sep-2009 12:25) Posted: My take on this counter, NOL, positive up trend, buy and keep long term.

 

Since I don't know how to upload chart, so can't share with you my view in the chart. I believe the price should be in $1.95~$2.3 by end of this year

 

My take on this counter, NOL, positive up trend, buy and keep long term.

 

Its a cyclical play if you believe in the recovery story.

Alligator      ( Date: 03-Sep-2009 10:37) Posted: They increase the ticket price.. Some said due to better rate and Xmas season on 3rd quarter.. dealer0168      ( Date: 17-Aug-2009 21:27) Posted: For NOL, emm i may consider to go in at $1.50. But this pricing may not appear. If does not appear, shall vest in other loh.