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Hmm something serious may happen this weekend......ManYi is going to Japan
CKS,
Yes, that was a very simplistic extrapolation of historic data and forecast RM. It certainly has no credence to it.
My estimated for 2Q is between 27.0 to 30.0 c eps.
yes,elfie.. I missed Giantlow too... he was like me caught vested in some stupid SPC DBwarrant.. but that counter ended up worthless.. I lost about 20k (cant exact remember now how much, and I dont wan to be remember it) and I guess he too.. however I was determined never to play warrants and instead concentrate on SPC fundamentals and so I have recovered and now making some... I really hope & wished Giantlow is now doing well...
CKS, I have no worries at all. I bought my share @$4.60 range, so I have no fuss. Sitting here patiently to see SPC breakout! BTW, the EPS you guys estimated are without operating cost. That should shave off a few cents, whatever, we shd see fabulous result.
wah, haven't been in this thread for a long time. glad to see the SPC-ers doing well. one of the oldest threads around man!
speaking of spc...wonder how giantlow is doing....
chinkiasu, no idea where my godpa is actually. haven't heard fr him recently...
anw, back to topic. yea. PE ratio for SPC is low, cf to most other blues now. qn is how high it can hit....woah, 32c divvie is certainly something not to be sniffed at. at current px, that's a yield of ~5% for this period alone...
note, elf not vested in this ah.
looking at your calculation Shplayer, i think we have to factor in the shutdown of some 90,000 bpd capacity for maintenance during May/June period.. so 32.1cts maybe on high side...
hi Senorita Fairygal,
.... nice to see you here in this thread....
I too would also of course be very happy when it (6.50) happens,...
(but I dont know what has happened to Geojam? Maybe has gone again to check/supervising the house he is building: would he be coming in August? perhaps Elfie might know..) ...
but no worries leh sir Idesa168, lets remain confident... there is alwaysr the divvy but in the meanwhile last few days to pick up stock as it occasionally dips to 5.75... (i suspect courtesy of some window dressing play?? i dont really know just wondering why it is so..)
I believe our estimates better than those FM analysis. This is because we are playing with our own $$ while they are playing withpeople's $$. With us being so bullish with the numbers, SPC share price is still not reflecting the "value" we had laid on the table. Shouldn't we ask our relatives and friends to buy up this counter?
cks,
Think geojam is the happiest man if it does reach $6.50 after the Q2 reporting. And then followed by the rest of us........hey, when is he arriving? August coming!
Just weighing in on the discussion of 2Q07 forecast.
In 4Q04, SPC posted eps of 28.28 c.....I believe it was its best quarter.
During that Q, the RM was USD7.00 and share capital of 428.6mil. (curr 515 mil)
Taking CKS's est of 2Q07 RM of 9.55, eps after share dilution should be about ......
(28.28 x 428.6/515 x 9.55/7.00) ......32.1 ct
This is a very simplistic estimate as it dosen't take other cost and factors into consideration.
oops vic.. I meant "torch" instead of "light"... had a tinge too much baileys this morning...
hey Vic.. i thrive on lao hor... and start the day with baileys in my morning coffee...
re batch, we could exchange notes when we meet for the drink... and shhh, lets say when the "the light that casts promethean flame ... & gryphon strength etc " was first sung in the school hall, I was there.....and those who guess, pls keep it to yourself...
We could be overly optimistic but I think our estimate should not be too far off from the reported figure since the company was willing to buyback at 5.50.
I do not agree with most of the estimate given by DBS but one of the point I agree
with them is the low PE for SPC. So I am sticking to PE 8 until I see SPC increase their E&P portfolio.
thats super.. 007 !! So this means when the 1H07 results are announced, we should see SPC price going pass 6.00... even perhaps 6.50 if we assume PE8.5 & conservative 2H07 eps about 30
Hi Chinkaisu & 007....thanks for the estimates and thanks for being so optimistic & confident about SPC. Both of you estimated the EPC to be in the range of above 30¢ while mine estimates was 26¢-28¢. I hope both of you are right about it, the higher the merrier. We should be seeing $6.50-$6.80 soon...akan datang! Cheers!
chinkiasu, I concur that your estimates are good and is very close to my estimates.
Let's assume that 2Q E&P and operating profit is to 1Q of $9.5 and $5.1 millions. This would add up to a estimated Q2 profit of $140+$14.6=$154.6 millions.
2Q EPS would then be $154.6/515.5 millions share = 29.99 cents. Compare to 2Q06 eps of 26.38 that would be an increase of 13.7%
Estimated basic 1H07 = 21.73 + 29.99 = 51.72 cents. Compared to 2H06 eps of 39.66 that would be an increase of 30.4% profit.
The estimates also does not include the sales of Tiger oil.
It would certainly be good...!! particularly as I learnt that you are also a Rafflesian.... we could share some school stories... and btw I really drink like a fish...
hi folks, I refer back to our estimate for 2Q07 profits which we guess to be around $25-28. I have re read DBSV research on SPC...I quote: Reuters?
If we assume Refining Margin for SPC is US$9.55 for 2Q07 this means the estimated profit for refining activity alone should be USD 9.55 x 140,000 bpd (SPC est refining capacity at half of 285,000bpd) x 60 days plus USD 9.55 x 50,000 bpd (because 90,000 bpd capacity under maintenance repairs) x30 days which totals up to S$140 million. This alone is higher than the profits for 1Q07 which from SPC report is about S$114 million. Dividing S$140 million by 515,000 shares, the eps is around 27cts. So folks pls check my calculation but if it is correct, my suspicion is that we can hit even higher eps if we take into account other SPC activities like trading etc...
Yes I agree, very conservative estimates. I am expecting at least 9X PE if not 10X PE. Current price trading at 10.5X.
these are very conservative estimates... PE8x?? btw brent crude average is around US$70 much higher than the 63bbl assumption below (in fact Brent North Sea crude today for August delivery leapt a hefty $US1.70 to settle up at $US74.75 per barrel, marking its highest peak since mid-August 2006)
anyway the point is that SPC price should hit at least 6.0...