SPC   

SPC

Price Target $8.00...hehehe!

 

the oil cartel making lotsa moolah controlling the global refinery capacity huh? 

There used to be a member in SJ who is an oil trader with an established global oil refinary.  She gave a pretty 'interesting' outlook of crude price as she deals with oil contracts in Asia. Wonder if that person is still ard to give some insight. hehe.

 

$6.05 now!

Good to close at $6.10.

 

looks sure $6.00 resistence will be broken, perhaps 6.05 at closing?

 

The sentiment is very strong today.

Should be able to break $6.00 resistance today.

Close at $6.10 today?

 

 

This is another angle to the current high oil price.

Extracted from Arab News

OPEC Says Crude Supply Not to Blame for Oil Price Reuters

WARSAW, 12 July 2007 ? Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members said yesterday they were not to blame for near record oil prices, pointing the finger at a global shortage of refinery capacity and international political tension. OPEC is ready to pump more oil, but for now sees no need and has rebuffed calls from consumer countries that want it take action to lower oil prices near $76 a barrel. Oil has been on an upward march since January when it sank to about $50. Concerns over shortages of gasoline in top consumer the United States and two rounds of OPEC supply curbs have helped push prices higher. ?OPEC does not find any reason at the moment to increase its production of crude oil,? the group?s president and United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Mohammed Al-Hamli said. ?The member countries of the organization are ready to pump additional amounts of crude oil into the market if the need arises.? The International Energy Agency, advisor to 26 of those industrialized countries, has for four months called on OPEC to open the taps to avoid over-tightening in the market. But OPEC ministers yesterday said there was no shortage of crude on the market and that boosting output wouldn?t help. ?The price today is not at all connected with the fundamentals of the oil industry,? Saudi Arabia?s Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources Ali Al-Naimi said, in his first comments on the market for months. ?There is a good balance between supply and demand. Inventories are in a comfortable position, therefore fundamentals do not support high prices today.? Naimi said the Kingdom?s buyers were not asking for more of its oil. OPEC members point to high crude inventories as evidence that the market is well supplied. US inventories are at a nine-year high. In Doha, Qatari Energy Minister Abdullah Al-Attiyah had earlier sounded the same message as his Saudi counterpart. ?OPEC cannot do anything about it,? Attiyah said. ?The world is facing a shortage of gasoline and diesel, but not crude oil.? Supply concern due to militant attacks and outages in Nigeria and international political tension over Iran?s nuclear ambitions have also bolstered prices. The IEA said yesterday that refinery constraints and fears of supply disruption were among factors that have driven crude higher. ?It is drive up by supply anxieties. It is driven up by Nigeria, Iran, by a number of things,? said deputy director William Ramsay. ?Plus some fundamentals, by some impediments in the refining sector. OPEC, which pumps over a third of the world?s oil, next meets in September to chart output policy. Some officials have suggested the exporters may have no reason to change tack then. For now, some analysts agree with OPEC that slow refinery operations, especially in the United States, and a rush of speculative fund flows are driving prices higher. London Brent crude hit an 11-month high at $76.63 a barrel on Tuesday, not far from a record $78.65 last August. ?You know how much speculative money there is in then market? Plenty,? said Naimi. New York?s main oil futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in August, shed 36 cents to $72.45 per barrel before the opening of US floor trading. ?Crude futures were a little lower (yesterday), coming off after yet another day of gains yesterday ahead of today?s weekly US fuel inventories report,? said Sucden analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov. The US Department of Energy will be issuing its weekly snapshot of American crude oil stockpiles ? with all eyes on gasoline or petrol inventories, traders said. Gasoline reserves are under intense pressure as many Americans hit the roads for vacations during what is known as the US driving season.

 

 

more news which means good news for SPC; the 2H2007 & YR2008 is going to be very profitable... I think I will hold on to this stock

International Energy Agency calls on Opec oil cartel to increase supply to avoid tight market in H2 2007 and 2008 By Finfacts Team (Irish Business Finance Portal) Jul 13, 2007, 15:41 The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based watchdog of industrialised countries including Ireland, on Friday warned that the Opec oil cartel needs to increase its oil production in the second half of the year to avoid a tight oil market. The warning coincides with a rise in Brent crude in London to $78.42 a barrel - close to an all-time high - and the main US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rising to $73.64 on the New York Mercantile Exchange (Nymex). The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has in recent times rejected calls for a rise in production. It says that problems at US refineries, geopolitical instability and speculation on the financial markets, are responsible for the price increase. The IEA said in its monthly oil market report for July: ?The analysis suggests a sharp rise in the requirement for Opec crude between a second quarter low point of some 30m b/d and nearer 33m b/d by the fourth quarter.? The IEA says that Opec, which controls about 40 per cent of global oil production, in June pumped about 30.2m barrels per day (b/d). Opec is correct that part of the price movement relates to speculation. It's reported that speculative bets on higher oil prices ? known as long positions? in the Nymex reached an all time high last week. The IEA in its report, provides its first estimate for 2008. It says that oil demand growth will accelerate to 2.2m b/d, while non-Opec supply growth would remain lacklustre for the fourth year in a row at 1.0m b/d. China will be the major force in oil demand for 2008. Chinese oil consumption will increase by 6.1 per cent in 2008. The IEA warned that ?there is a significant upside risk to this [China] prognosis, notably much stronger than expected economic growth.? The gap between supply and demand would require further Opec production increases. The IEA says that in 2008, Opec needs to produce an average of 32.3m b/d, up from this year?s average of 31.7m b/d. However, the IEA acknowledges that an increase in Opec total production capacity and refinery flexibility would mean that the market would be in ?slightly more comfortable than 2006 and 2007.? SUMMARY OF THE IEA REPORT: Brent futures surged over $77/bbl by mid-July on tight fundamentals, increased geopolitical tension and indications of strong fund buying. Falling refining margins suggest that market tightness is shifting from product to crude markets. Global oil product demand is expected to rise by a robust 2.5% to 88.2 mb/d in 2008, largely due to a weather-related rebound in the OECD and strong demand in non-OECD countries. This represents an increase of 2.2 mb/d, from the slightly revised (-0.1 mb/d) 2007 level of 86.0 mb/d. Non-OPEC supply in 2008 is forecast to reach 51.0 mb/d (+1.0 mb/d), plus 5.5 mb/d of OPEC gas liquids (+0.7 mb/d). Key growth drivers include the FSU, Latin America and global biofuels. OECD Europe and North America continue to see production decline, despite strong growth from the US Gulf of Mexico and Canadian oil sands. OPEC capacity rises by 1 mb/d in 2008 to average 35.4 mb/d, with the implication that spare capacity will post a modest rise. In reality, the spare capacity comparison will depend to a large extent on OPEC production levels both in the second half of 2007 and next year. Global refinery crude throughput increased by 0.2 mb/d in May to 72.7 mb/d and is 0.4 mb/d higher year-on-year. Crude throughput is forecast to increase rapidly to an August peak of 75.2 mb/d, on the back of higher runs in the OECD and the Middle East.

 

More news, now from Wall Street Journal....

Oil Hits 11-Month High
As North Sea Output Falls

Crude-oil futures climbed to just below $74 a barrel, settling at an 11-month high amid concerns about the reliability of North Sea oil production.

New York prices followed two days of gains in European Brent crude oil, which has been advancing since Thursday, when Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips said the closure of the North Sea's Central Area Transmission System natural-gas pipeline would reduce oil production at two fields. It is unclear how much output is being lost at other fields because of the shutdown of the BP PLC-operated pipeline, which could take weeks to repair. BP has declined to comment about crude production.

Light, sweet crude oil for August delivery settled $1.43, or 2%, higher at $73.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $74 a barrel in intraday trading. It was the highest settlement for a front-month contract since Aug. 11, 2006.

The August Brent contract on ICE Futures gained $1.28, or 1.7%, to $77.66 a barrel, after rising 91 cents a barrel Thursday.

"What the market seems to be doing is focusing on the regional North Sea story and reacting to tightness there," said Tim Evans, a Citigroup analyst in New York.

Crude prices have risen 12% in the past two months, partly because of U.S. refineries' struggle to increase gasoline stockpiles as the U.S. entered peak summer driving demand. Oil-supply concerns, particularly from militant attacks on oil facilities in Nigeria, and tensions over Iran's nuclear program also are helping drive prices higher.

Prices were supported by data released Wednesday by the Energy Information Administration, the Department of Energy's statistical arm, showing a 0.2-percentage-point rise in refinery use to 90.2% of capacity, countering expectations of a 0.5-percentage-point gain.

Traders have been watching refinery utilization, which remains below the average of 94% of operating capacity for this time of year. "I think there is hope that refinery utilization has not met its seasonal peak," said Peter Beutel, president of advisory firm Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn.

In a further boost to crude prices, the Paris-based International Energy Agency reported Friday that 2008 world oil demand is expected to rise 2.5%, or 2.2 million barrels a day, amid expectations of a cooler winter in the U.S. and Europe and strong industrial demand in China and the Middle East.

The agency also cut its 2008 daily production forecast for countries not in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries by 220,000 barrels to 50 million barrels, after revising its forecasting methods.

 

hi folks, 

  It looks to me that SPC will break the 6.00 resistances this coming week:

here's latest news from Chicago Tribune:
Oil rises to 11-month peak; gasoline prices on way up

From Tribune news services
Published July 14, 2007

NEW YORK?The price of oil hit an 11-month high Friday, and gasoline prices extended their advance at the pump.

In futures trading, light, sweet crude for August delivery gained $1.43 to settle at $73.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after rising as high as $74 earlier. It was the highest close since Aug. 11 and the biggest one-day gain since June 14.

The national average price of gas rose 2 cents overnight, to $3.046 a gallon, according to AAA and the Oil Price Information Service. Retail prices, which typically lag the futures markets, have risen steadily since bottoming out at $2.949 a gallon last week. Prices peaked at $3.227 a gallon in late May.

Analysts attribute much of the recent increase to price spikes in the Midwest and Plains states caused by the closing of a 108,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Coffeyville, Kan., due to flooding and a 250,000-barrel-per-day refinery in BP PLC's Whiting due to a leak.

The Whiting refinery, the biggest in the Midwest, is expected to be back at full production by next week; officials in Coffeyville still are assessing damage.

Strong consumer demand also is playing a role, analysts say. In a report this week, the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said demand for gas grew last week, to 9.6 million barrels a day, or 1.4 percent higher than the same period last year. But gasoline inventories jumped by 1.2 million barrels, almost double analyst predictions of a 640,000-barrel increase.

"Gasoline inventories are starting to look almost adequate," said Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc. in Winchester, Mass.

In addition, oil prices received a boost from the International Energy Agency, which said Friday that global energy consumption likely will rise in 2008 at its fastest clip in years.

The report wasn't surprising but did contribute to a "bullish tint on the market," said Kevin Saville, managing editor for the Americas energy desk at Platts.

 

I moved out and join in the fun in other counter....hopefully I will be able to join back in time.

 

hi Shareplayer..  absolutely agreed!!!  we just relax and wait for July 25th...

 

yes 168..  there is also a big hammer at 6.00 of >2million sell queue to clear...

 

As of this moment, fundamentals of SPC are still intact.

Crude oil price remains firm.

Refining capacity is still not showing a oversupply situation.

Regional economies still chugging along nicely.

Wait for 2Q 07 results on 25 Jul.

 

 

I am basically delighted that SPC finally touched $6.00, FINALLY! However, look closely, we will realised that there is no big fund buying up @$6.00. This is probably because there are more exciting counters elsewhere; Keppel +30¢, DBS +40¢, UOB +30¢, SembCorp Marine +25¢. Looks like SPC will be range bound trading between $5.90-$6.00. If I am the BBs, I would plough my $$ in those counters too. We just have to sit one side and watch the show. I have my pop-corns with me...lol! I personally see SPC intrinsic value at $8.50-$9.00. We just need one of those positive news from the E&P activities, then we are ready to fly! Cheers to all vested, patience will pay off.

 

at last SPC touching 6.00 again !!!!

 

oops, dont know why below isposted skewed

here is a repost

 couldnt help noticing this trade

at 1407:48 a buy up trade down at 5.95  of 752 lots  !!!!   something is brewing??

 

 

CRUDE OIL & PRODUCTS		Jul 10
CRUDE (FOB origin)
US$/barrel	Close	Change
Brent blend (1-Mth F)	76.68	+0.89
WTI (Near Mth)	72.63	-0.13
Dubai (1-Mth F)	69.81	+0.32
Tapis blend	79.40	+1.45
Minas	76.55	+1.20
PRODUCT
US$/barrel (FOB S'pore)	Close	Change
Naphtha	77.15	+0.83
Jet Kerosene	86.65	+1.05

 

Extract of today's Bloomberg report July 12, 2007 00:36 EDT

Refineries Higher U.S. refineries operated at 90.2 percent of capacity last week, the highest since the week ended May 25. Refineries haven't operated above 93.8 percent of capacity since September 2005, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita moved through the Gulf Coast region. Motor fuel demand climbed 1.1 percent to 9.66 million barrels a day for the week, just short of the record of 9.72 million barrels in July 2005, the report said. ``The demand side of the equation is still healthy,'' said Purvin & Gertz's Shum. ``That's a strong factor to support prices.''

 

 

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME Nymex Crude Future 72.65 .09 .12 00:23 Dated Brent Spot 76.67 .06 .08 23:19 WTI Cushing Spot 72.56 -.25 -.34 07/11

PETROLEUM (¢/gal)

PRICE* CHANGE % CHANGE TIME Nymex Heating Oil Future 210.08 .00 .00 23:19 Nymex RBOB Gasoline Future 230.37 -.26 -.11 23:48