SPC   

SPC

I'm very new to trading... Thus didn't want to sell at a loss plus not up to date with market trend, only thought of holding for long term dividends.

AK_Francis      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 15:22) Posted: After CNY loh, AK perceive only. But wondering why didn't dump when it px crosses 10-20 % loss margin n with then poor market sentiment. Perhaps, need to learn more in trading. 07 hold 36 lts but now only half, for safety. aircraft      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 14:31) Posted: My Avg cost for SPC (3 lots) is a hefty $6.17. When is it a good time for me to start DCA ? Thanks.

 

Hmm... I never thought of fighting the market. I'm a newbie but thought that it no harm holding SPC for long term dividends but my Avg price too high. If it's lower then at least better chance of me selling them for capital appreciation if I wanted to, at that point of time. And the pricing now (around $2) is in a not bad position to lower my Ave price ?

iPunter      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 16:19) Posted: Why do you want to do DCA? You want to fight the market? As it is, you are already very exposed... Why do you want to increase your exposure further??? This kind of 'combative' approach to the market is the reason why many are wiped out ! aircraft      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 14:31) Posted: My Avg cost for SPC (3 lots) is a hefty $6.17. When is it a good time for me to start DCA ? Thanks.

 

But i think oil will never drop below 33..that my guess..in fact got some 15 lots at 1.43..didnt buy more becos was worried as the selling was like no tomolo....never mind..just keep..how low can it go...1.0..well if it really got to that i will buy more..

Can this one end like ferrochina..

 

Wah, hoe shei liao. AK too slow loh. Anyway, congrates.

cheongwee      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 17:29) Posted: Last oct was FIRE SALE..ppl anyhow throw like world ending tomolo.....i got some below 2...u want below 2 got to wait oil below 30..this is a possibility...i am not poking at you.. AK_Francis      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 11:38) Posted: Ha ha, it touched at 1.77 yr low, end last Oct. while then CO was around 67 USD. Then STI  1472.77. Today, BCO is 43.55 USD. STI now 1721.89 n SPC is 2.34. AK vested for not so good div ds yr loh. 8cts only as compared to 30-40 cts d preceeding yrs ah.

 

Last oct was FIRE SALE..ppl anyhow throw like world ending tomolo.....i got some below 2...u want below 2 got to wait oil below 30..this is a possibility...i am not poking at you..

AK_Francis      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 11:38) Posted: Ha ha, it touched at 1.77 yr low, end last Oct. while then CO was around 67 USD. Then STI  1472.77. Today, BCO is 43.55 USD. STI now 1721.89 n SPC is 2.34. AK vested for not so good div ds yr loh. 8cts only as compared to 30-40 cts d preceeding yrs ah. cheongwee      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 05:07) Posted: This counter doing fine because of oil px goes up???or what..this one will never go below 2 unless oil drop below 30..

 

Why do you want to do DCA? You want to fight the market?

As it is, you are already very exposed...

Why do you want to increase your exposure further???

This kind of 'combative' approach to the market is the reason why many are wiped out !

aircraft      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 14:31) Posted: My Avg cost for SPC (3 lots) is a hefty $6.17. When is it a good time for me to start DCA ? Thanks.

 

After CNY loh, AK perceive only. But wondering why didn't dump when it px crosses 10-20 % loss margin n with then poor market sentiment. Perhaps, need to learn more in trading.

07 hold 36 lts but now only half, for safety.

aircraft      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 14:31) Posted: My Avg cost for SPC (3 lots) is a hefty $6.17. When is it a good time for me to start DCA ? Thanks.

 

My Avg cost for SPC (3 lots) is a hefty $6.17. When is it a good time for me to start DCA ? Thanks.

 

really good $$ 

any chances to go down less than $2?? thinking to go in now

 

Wah, thats good $ loh. AK went in around avg 6.40. Not greedy, released  ard 8.6, in 07, it went up 9.05, 2 weeks later. Ah yoh yoh.

But last yr, salah loh, went in 3.47, 2.27 n 2.28, ayah, just for 8 cts div. Peow. May download some after 3.15pm. As sifus said, cash is queen.

iPunter      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 12:15) Posted: About a year ago, SPC was one good cheap counter to buy @4.05. Then it went up to 8.00+. Great profits for term traders (ie. months). And now it is only about 2.00+... but this looks expensive now! ...

 

If follow TA, sure make money.

If follow FA, might not make money.

 

About a year ago, SPC was one good cheap counter to buy @4.05.

Then it went up to 8.00+. Great profits for term traders (ie. months).

And now it is only about 2.00+... but this looks expensive now! ...

 

Ha ha, it touched at 1.77 yr low, end last Oct. while then CO was around 67 USD. Then STI  1472.77.

Today, BCO is 43.55 USD. STI now 1721.89 n SPC is 2.34.

AK vested for not so good div ds yr loh. 8cts only as compared to 30-40 cts d preceeding yrs ah.

cheongwee      ( Date: 22-Jan-2009 05:07) Posted: This counter doing fine because of oil px goes up???or what..this one will never go below 2 unless oil drop below 30..

 

This counter doing fine because of oil px goes up???or what..this one will never go below 2 unless oil drop below 30..

 

AK opines that its an essential, no harm to hold it if u can.

No call for anything for d above. CA applies loh.

iPunter      ( Date: 21-Jan-2009 22:19) Posted: Solid meaty analysis from 'da ge'... :) The economic horizon  looks bad... Thus one would hardly anticipate any  'chionging' to take place anytime soon... Best case could be a lethargic sideways drift... Otherwise,  it can possibly go down the gutters...

 

Solid meaty analysis from 'da ge'... :)

The economic horizon  looks bad...

Thus one would hardly anticipate any  'chionging' to take place anytime soon...

Best case could be a lethargic sideways drift...
Otherwise,  it can possibly go down the gutters...

 

Add to my earlier post,

Upstream Profit contribution for 3Q08 was $43.6mi (8.5c ps) and 4Q08 shrank to 2.7c ps. So, as long as CO price hovers around current levels (USD35 to 45), US business will not contribute too much to SPC's performance. Bear in mind, USD/SGD exchange rate is also a factor.

 

Bear in mind 3Q08 results was breakeven. It had about 125mil (-24c ps) loss in inventory write down but offset by about $113m gains (+22c ps) in deritvaives. Also, RM was positive at USD4.00 / bbl.

However, 4Q08 resulted in a net loss. What is of concern is RM, which is a key factor of the health of refining industry, according to my extrapolation, has turned negative at USD-2.00 / bbl.

In this case, I don't believe YoY result comparison is an effective tool .......I would prefer to look at QoQ.

Personnal opinion.....caveat emptor.

 

trader88.sg      ( Date: 21-Jan-2009 10:37) Posted: Perhaps all bad news have been priced in already.

 

According to the FY08 report, there's a huge write down of inventories cost due to the meltdown of crude price last Q....this may continue if CF continue to soften further to say US$25 - the mean value predicted by experts. Kiv is the word for now.