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gbleng ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 11:31) Posted:
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topdog22 ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 11:01) Posted:
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As stated, I am not much of a technician but all chart is just pictorial representation of investor sentiment. It may have some predictive value based on historical events, providing fundamentals remain the same however, if fundamentals change, then predictive value may not be valid. BIG fundamentals have changed so is predictive value of charts still valid????
A couple of years ago when global markets melted down charts were not good predictors, current history was re-written. Remeber when all analysts predicted stock market would go up forever, property prices would increase forever, and good times would roll on. Everything changed! It is easy to gaze back and be precent but being able to gaze forward accurately is another matter.
I also agree that investors can make self-fulfilling prophecies.
Meanwhile sell-off still has very light volume.
Just some observation from 40 years of investing globally.
As long as one respects the market...
which includes its ability to spring big surprises,
one should be safe from expeditious financial destruction...
abkxpres ( Date: 11-Nov-2010 19:25) Posted:
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gbleng ( Date: 16-Oct-2010 12:14) Posted:
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greendino ( Date: 09-Nov-2010 21:37) Posted:
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I'm a vested Biosensors fan and had been longing this counter since 0.55
However, I am more a chart analysis and look for all the signs of trend and indicators to decide my moves rather than hear rumours which always make me lose money.
Candlesticks analysis just shown the classic kicker from the uptrend to a reversal at about 1.23. I've checked with my dealer and it also shows the big boys are exiting this counter. I suspect these are the same group which enter at the $0.80-1.00 region and spike the recent price surges.
My advice is dun risk it becos chart and technical analysis dun lie and is the most reliable indication of price movements. Should let it cool down to its natural state before getting vested again. I dun see this counter going anywhere higher anytime soon.
If you dare to short, its a better call than longing this now. Happy trading.
allright ( Date: 11-Nov-2010 13:40) Posted:
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At the result briefing-
In October, Hony Capital announced an intent to acquire 29.54 per cent of Biosensors. To date, it has amassed 24.8 per cent
in previous announcement on the 11th of October-
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DJ MARKET TALK: Biosensors May Gain; Investor Takes 29.47% Stake (2010/10/11 08:54AM) ,... Autumn Eagle has entered into agreements with 7 vendors to acquire their stakes, amounting to total of 319.3 million shares. |
iPunter ( Date: 09-Nov-2010 21:46) Posted:
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Amongst other information an interesting table was provided in the Nomura Analysis (below) that showed various financial metrics for comparable companies. They list MicroPort and Lepu Medical both traded in
Much as one analyzes real estate looking to price per square foot as an objective metric: one looks at P.E. ratio as an objective metric for equities. In real estate one looks at other data such as location, view, layout and finishes: in business one also looks at management, execution, sales & profit growth, depth of product line, proprietary technology and clinical efficacy.
On all the above metrics BIG is comparable to Microport and Lepu - But BIG is far superior to MicroPort and Lepu in the case of proprietary technology and proven clinical efficacy.
BIG is significantly underpriced based on P.E. ratio metric - an indicative price target of S$2.34 using a simple average P.E. (2010 forecast) would place it on comparable footing. This is something that WILL be noticed by institutional investors.
Biosensors International HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS | SINGAPORE Jit Soon Lim, CFA Yuan Yiu Tsai Another strong quarter �� BIG’s strong 2Q results reaffirm the market share momentum of
BioMatrix (+63% y-y / +19% q-q) and Nobori (+87% y-y / +10% q-q) in
an overall flattish DES market. According to management, BioMatrix /
Nobori have a combined market share of >15% in key CE markets.
We expect the strong momentum to continue; with the potential delay
of JNJ’s NEVO launch in the EU, the platform will retain its
technological edge as the only limus-eluting stent with a
biodegradable polymer. �� Management reaffirmed its FY11F core revenue guidance of US$135-
145mn and continues to guide for a stronger 2H, driven by the clinical
results presented at the TCT conference. We have raised our FY11-
13F EPS by 13-19% to reflect a stronger-than-expected royalty
contribution from Terumo (not part of guidance), better gross margins
and lower operating expenses with the closure of its US operations. �� JWMS CEO Dr Jack Wang has been appointed co-CEO of BIG, in
charge of its China strategy. With reference to the potential launch of
BioMatrix in China upon SFDA approval, Dr Wang opines that the two
companies (BIG and JWMS) will be complementary, although we note
that plans are preliminary at this stage. �� We raise our PT to S$1.50 (implied FY12F P/E of 20x), which chiefly
reflects a more valuable DES franchise underpinned by BIG’s recent
acquisitions (CardioMind, AXXESS), the proven results of
BioFreedom, and BioMatrix’s extended technological lead. BUY. Key financials & valuations 31 Mar (US$mn) FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F Revenue 116.2 148.4 190.5 232.5
Reported net profit 31.4 39.3 69.9 99.9
Normalised net profit 31.4 48.7 69.9 99.9
Normalised EPS (US$) 0.029 0.046 0.065 0.093
Norm. EPS growth (%) na 55.0 43.5 42.9
Norm. P/E (x) 33.4 23.2 16.2 11.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 26.3 17.7 12.1 8.0
Price/book (x) 6.4 5.5 4.0 2.8
Dividend yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ROE (%) 25.3 23.9 31.9 32.9
Net debt/equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash Earnings revisions Previous norm. net profit 40.8 62.0 85.0
Change from previous (%) 19.2 12.7 17.5
Previous norm. EPS (US$) 0.038 0.058 0.080 Source: Company, Nomura estimates Share price relative to MSCI Singapore 1m 3m 6m 22.0 50.6 60.5
24.7 58.1 74.3
17.5 43.0 48.0
Easy Source: Company, Nomura estimates Mark et cap (US$mn) 1,145
Fidelity
Stock borrowability
5.4
Major shareholders (%)
Hony Capital 29.4 Price
Rel MSCI Singapore (S$) Closing price on 9 Nov Price target (from S$1.20) Upside/downside Difference from consensus FY12F net profit (US$mn) Difference from consensus Source: Nomura Nomura vs consensus We believe consensus has not
recognised the potential of Terumo’s
accelerating royalties to BIG. Maintained BUY �� BIG reported a strong set of 2Q FY11 results, boosted by continued market share
gains by BioMatrix and Nobori, with normalised net profit exceeding our forecast by
20%. We revise our EPS forecast by +13-19% over FY11-13F and raise our PT to
S$1.50. Reiterate BUY – the appointment of JWMS CEO Jack Wang as co-CEO of
BIG is a key positive, with the group seeking to establish a platform in China. �� Continued momentum in its forthcoming results, the potential value-unlocking of its
50% stake in domestic drug-eluting stent (DES) manufacturer in China, JWMS, and
Japanese approval of Terumo’s Nobori, whose technology is licensed from BIG. Anchor themes The US$5bn DES industry is one of the most profitable segments in the medical
technology space, with market share changes driven by innovation. Start-ups like
Biosensors, with its leading-edge technology, could be M&A targets for incumbents. NOMURA S INGAPORE L I M ITED Biosensors International Jit Soon Lim, CFA / Yuan Yiu Tsai
Nomura 2 9 November 2010 2Q FY11 results review Another strong quarter Exhibit 1. Biosensors 2Q FY11 results FYE Mar (US$mn) 4Q10 1Q11 2Q11 (% y-y) (% q-q) Remarks
Revenue
Critical care 3.0 3.0 3.1 1.6 0.8
Other int. cardiology 9.3 8.7 8.4 (8.8) (3.1) Decreased catheter sales to JWMS on production planning (seasonal)
DES 12.8 17.6 20.9 63.4 18.7 Strong market share gains in existing markets, and new launch in
Taiwan
Licensing & royalties 2.2 3.6 4.0 86.9 10.4 Strong growth from low base as Terumo’s Nobori gains traction Gross profit
Critical care 1.4 1.2 1.1 (23.5) (7.6)
Interventional cardiology
(DES + other)
15.5 20.2 23.6 51.8 16.7 IC margin (%)
driven by higher volume
Licensing & royalties 2.2 3.6 4.0 86.9 10.4 JV contribution (JWMS) Net profit
(ex-exceptional)
6.4 9.9 11.2 73.5 12.7
expectations given management’s guidance of stronger 2H Source: Company data, Nomura research Key takeaways from the conference call ��
markets in this quarter, contributing to strong revenue growth. On average, it has
exceeded management’s target of 10% unit share and is approaching 15%. The
BioMatrix / Nobori DES platform has a combined market share of >15% in the
major CE markets (mainly in EU). ��
opinion leaders on a large-scale clinical trial for BioFreedom and continues to guide
for the possibility of an increase in R&D expense in 2H FY11. On its recent
acquisition of Devax’s AXXESS stent, management said that it is currently setting
up the production line in Singapore; thus a launch will not be immediate. ��
Capital's entry as a major shareholder, Biosensors announced on 9 November a
series of boardroom changes with the appointment of two representatives from the
fund. In addition, Dr Jack Wang has been appointed co-CEO of Biosensors and will
focus on BIG’s operations and China strategy, while Jeff Jump will continue to lead
the company’s strategy outside China. Dr Wang opines that both BIG and JWMS
will be complementary in China, perhaps one acting as a sales/marketing platform
and the other as a manufacturing base, although we note that plans are preliminary
at this stage. ��
Mr Kevin Sayer (based in the US) has resigned as CFO, but will remain as a
consultant to ensure a smooth transition. BIG is currently in search of a new CFO. We view this as a transformative
event, which bodes well for
Biosensors as Dr Wang was
instrumental in establishing
JWMS. Biosensors International Jit Soon Lim, CFA / Yuan Yiu Tsai
Nomura 3 9 November 2010 Revised PT of S$1.50 suggests 23% potential upside On BIG’s strong 1H11 results, we are raising our FY11-13F EPS by 13-19%. Key
changes include: i) a 13-30% increase in Terumo royalties in FY11-13F, to reflect the
stronger-than-expected Nobori sales outside Japan; and ii) a US$3.5mn reduction in
G&A expenses from FY12F with the closure of BIG’s US operations.
We are raising our PT to S$1.50 (from S$1.20) chiefly to reflect a more valuable DES
franchise underpinned by BIG’s recent acquisitions (CardioMind, AXXESS), the proven
results of BioFreedom and BioMatrix’s longer shelf-life arising from the potential delay
in JNJ’s EU launch of NEVO (see page 4). Our revised PT implies a FY12F (Mar-end)
P/E of 19.9x, which is still at a discount to its HK-listed peer MicroPort (Exhibit 3). Our
sum-of-the-parts methodology is unchanged. Exhibit 2. SOTP valuation; risks to our PT (US$mn) Nomura comment DES franchise 587 DCF of BioMatrix over 6 years (WACC:9.7%), terminal value at 12x P/E (previously 9.2x) of trough earnings of
BioMatrix to reflect BIG’s recent acquisitions (CardioMind, AXXESS) and proven results of BioFreedom
Base business 125 DCF (WACC: 9.7%, terminal value: 0%)
JWMS 477 22x FY11/12F P/E (rolling 12-month forward)
PV of Terumo royalties 145 DCF value (WACC: 9.7%) over five-year licensing agreement
Net cash/(debt) 30 End-FY11F
Total (US$mn) 1,364 Total (S$mn) 1,773 Diluted # of shares
(‘000)
1,206 Assuming full dilution of outstanding options and warrants Price target
(S$/share)
1.50 Implied FY11F P/E 28.6x
Implied FY12F P/E 19.9x
Rounded off from 1.47 Key risks to PT: 1) Weakness in euro, ASP pressure worldwide
2) Execution amid strong competition. Notwithstanding our positive view, BIG is still a small independent DES
company, which will continue to see competition from dominant competitors and face execution issues per most
small start-ups. Source: Nomura estimates Exhibit 3. Regional DES valuation Price Mkt Cap EPS P/E (x) P/BV (x) ROE (%)
Company Ticker Rating (LC) (US$mn) CAGR (%) 10F 11F 10F 11F 10F 11F
China MicroPort 853 HK NR 8.11 1,509 19 31.7 28.2 4.8 4.2 17.1 15.3
Lepu Medical (A) 30003 CH NR 28.90 3,520 36 57.6 41.9 11.9 9.9 21.2 25.4 Singapore Biosensors* BIG SP BUY 1.22 1,145 42 23.2 16.2 5.5 4.0 23.9 31.9 Note: * FYE March 2011/12F corresponds to FY10-11F; pricing as of 9 November 2010
Source: Bloomberg estimates for not rated stocks, Nomura estimates for Nomura coverage Biosensors International Jit Soon Lim, CFA / Yuan Yiu Tsai
Nomura 4 9 November 2010 Macro view Key takeaways from global players We highlight the following key takeaways from 3Q10 results of global medtech
players — Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Boston Scientific (BSX) and Abbott (ABT). All
are not rated: ��
ASP decline.
down 1% both on a reported and constant currency basis y-y. Worldwide volume
growth of 10%, driven by both PCI volume and a 3ppt increase in DES penetration,
was offset by average ASP decline of 10%. BSX continues to forecast a flat market
going forward, with increases in volume and penetration rate offset by ASP
declines. Exhibit 4. Global DES market in 3Q10 Value (y-y %) Volume ASP PCI volume vs. DES penetration Worldwide US$992mn (-1%) +10% -10% Unit volume growth driven by both
PCI volume and 3ppt increase in
DES penetration
US US$437mn (-3%) +4% -7% -1% decline in PCI volume offset by
3ppt increase in DES penetration
OUS
(outside of US)
US$554mn (+2%) +14% -12~14% +9% increase in PCI volume
boosted by 4 ppt increase in DES
penetration Source: Boston Scientific ��
the downside in reimbursement driven by government bodies, BSX opines that the
rapid pace at which physicians are becoming employees of hospitals outside the
US has drastically changed the decision-making process for medical device
purchase. ��
its launch in 1Q, the Xience/Promus platform quickly gained shares in Japan and
has continued to strengthen its leadership position with >70% market share in 3Q
(up from 51% in 1Q). ��
that the competitive dynamics in the US DES market are less intense now, given
the stricter regulatory programmes (high entry barrier to new players) and the
technical issues faced by its competitors. ��
new clinical trial EVOLVE for its next-generation everolimus-eluting Synergy stent,
which has a biodegradable polymer. On the other hand, JNJ has suspended
enrolment in NEVO II clinical trials as it is facing issues with the balloon catheter.
NEVO, its biodegradable polymer DES, was submitted for CE Mark at end-1Q10
and JNJ is “evaluating the impact of this delay” on its European launch, according
to its management. ��
of its 45-patient ABSORB trial for its next-generation biodegradable stent BVS,
which demonstrated strong results, in its view. ABT is looking at a European launch
by 2013. BSX views biodegradable stents as a “niche play” as they take two to
three years to disburse, with the major effect on dual anti-platelet therapy (DAPT)
requirement.
Interesting note in the following article:
Biosensors Q2 profit up 32% to US$8.4m
By LYNN KAN
BIOSENSORS International Group has recorded a net profit of US$8.46 million for its second quarter ended Sept 30, a 32 per cent increase.
Revenue was up 34 per cent at US$36.4 million. Product gross margins on interventional cardiology products improved to 76 per cent from 68 per cent previously.
'It's partly to do with increased production volume in our Singapore plant and a favourable sales mix. A very high proportion of our sales were drug-eluting stents (DES),' said chief financial officer Kevin Sayer.
Earnings per share rose to 79 US cents from 61 US cents previously.
Biosensors CEO Jeffrey Jump said yesterday at a results briefing that sales in the second half should continue rising as Biosensors typically sees a seasonal pick-up then.
The company will also step up its efforts in the China market. It promoted chief operating officer Jack Wang to co-CEO, in charge of the China market. Mr Jump will oversee markets outside of China.
Dr Wang yesterday said that its current joint venture presence in China was satisfactory and there are currently no plans to merge Biosensors and JWMS (JW Medical Systems Ltd) operations. JWMS contributed revenue of US$21.7 million to the group and net profit of US$10.1 million.
Meanwhile, Hony Capital CEO John Zhao and managing director Yuan Bing have been appointed non-executive directors, replacing Michael Kleine and Lincoln Chee.
In October, Hony Capital announced an intent to acquire 29.54 per cent of Biosensors. To date, it has amassed 24.8 per cent.
Mr Sayer announced his resignation at the briefing yesterday. But he will remain a consultant with the company while it looks for a successor.
Mr Jump said that DES looks likely to remain Biosensors' main growth driver, with newly acquired technology helping it increase its market share.
Biosensors shares lost two cents to end the day at $1.22 yesterday.
gbleng ( Date: 30-Jan-2010 10:26) Posted:
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A few more things caught my attention in the Q2 briefing.
1) Co-CEO Jeff Jump mentioned that 'several institutions' took a larger holding in Biosensors, including Fidelity, which was reported in SGX.
In other words, some of these 'OTHER INSTITUTIONS' took a sake in Biosensors that were less than 5 %, and thus do not need to report to SGX.
2) Biosensors' share of the DES mkt is now greater than 10% and gaining towards 15 %. ALso, only Abbot (I presume it is Abbot) and Biosensors are increasing mkt share in this qtr.
3) Terumo is accelerating their growth (in the CEO's words) and if they combine both Biosensors' and Terumo's sales, the mkt share is greater than 15 %.
4) The other CO-CEO, Dr. Jack Wang says that there is enough roon in China to accomodate the 3 major players in DES, ie Microport, Lepu, and their own JWMS. He further added that JWMS is doing 'very well'.
5) With the new directors from Hony on board and the appt of Dr. Jack Wang as Co-CEO, the company is clearly 'leaning eastward' (the words of Jeff Jump).
6) The TCT conference in Sept has enable people to understand Biosensor's bio-degradable technology and EMBRACE it, and that is driving business across the board (meaning in most of the major countries) towards Biosensors as well as Terumo.
Again, my interpretation of the news conference (Hope that I did not miss anything out or add anything to it). Not a call to buy/sell.
well DBS also downgrade Noble..
one against all trading firms?
what is the odd? you think leh...
If there is any opening for DBS anaylst I think I should apply... SMILE