Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

May be...
but be ware...profit taking must be FAST...
good luck.

gbleng      ( Date: 22-Nov-2010 17:09) Posted: Something's up??

 

Something's up??

 

Can't disagree with abkxpres's assessment:  Based on daily volume of sell-off it is apparant that only Singapore local day traders currently interested in counter.  Large volume palyers must be busy elsewhere.  But would not short counter, if other investors become interested could easily take out recent highs very quickly.  Personally, think shareprice has great upward potential based on valuation of Microport & Lapu.  So think it might take a little time any news re: Japan or China or new products could be catalyst. 

 

Dear All,

I've share my views earlier on shorting this counter at 1.23 after analysis of candlesticks, Technical charts which displays and indicates "Demand and Supply" reactions in this counter.  Now this counter is 1.14 as we speaks.

 

Based on the charts, Fibonacci Retracements techniques shows that there is a slight suppport at 1.08 which is the likelihood where this counter will keep dropping till to have any significant reactions.  If it fell through 1.08, then a stronger support is at 1.01 which I think if you are interested to long this counter, that would be a better position.  However, I personally would not long this counter till at least it dropped to 0.87

 

So if you like, you can continue to short this counter safely till 1.09.  Its a better bet than longing it now.

 

Regards

 

ABK 

gbleng      ( Date: 15-Nov-2010 13:04) Posted: What's your time frame... I'm it will get to $2 one day... baberic      ( Date: 15-Nov-2010 11:20) Posted: A likely $2.00 counter in the near future.

 

What's your time frame... I'm it will get to $2 one day...

baberic      ( Date: 15-Nov-2010 11:20) Posted: A likely $2.00 counter in the near future.

 

A likely $2.00 counter in the near future.

 

A possible motivation for stock sales and BIG’s recent restructure is the proposals in the United States to substantially raise personal income & capital gains tax rates and to change the personal and corporate tax rules.   The increase in capital gains rates could be more than 33%.  This change would mean that all gains accumulated in BIG stock would be subject to much higher taxes.  Since Mr Lu and Mr Shultz had founders shares with little cost most of the sales proceeds is subject.

 

Last I saw: Mr Lu had over 9M, Mr. Sayer over 7M and Mr Klein over 20M options.  All of them are subject to tax in the US

 

 

I think Jump has share options and the last one awarded was at  us$.80. Not sure how many he has been awarded so far. How about Mr LU ? Does he have any share options and if so how many? Anyone know how to find out? My broker said to go through the SGX announcements

 

SurModics CEO Discusses F4Q2010 Results - Earnings Call Transcript

 

Quote taken from SurModics conference call Nov 9, 2010…Surmodics furnishes JNJ- DES drug coating.

 

 

“…… Recently, Johnson & Johnson reported the sales of the CYPHER sirolimus-eluting coronary stent were approximately $136 million in the quarter, down 19% sequentially and 36% year-over-year. However, excluding the $1.25 million in one-time license fees from our third quarter results, royalties and license fees decreased 2% sequentially in spite of the 19% decrease in CYPHER sales. …..”

 

BIG  DES  Sales growing.

 

 

Interesting article from Financial Times about what technical trading can do and did in Sugar Market

 

 

“Sugar suffers biggest sell-off in 30 years

 

By Javier Blas in London

 

Published: November 11 2010 20:51 | Last updated: November 11 2010 20:51

 

Sugar prices suffered their biggest one-day sell-off in 30 years on Thursday, tumbling by as much as 11 per cent after speculators pulled out from the market in the wake of dizzying gains.

 

The sell-off, which came just hours after the sweetener hit a 30-year high, started after the European Commission granted further export licences for the commodity, a move widely expected among physical sugar traders.

 

But some hedge funds took Brussels’ decision as a bearish signal and began selling heavily, traders said. The selling quickly escalated into a rout as falling prices triggered a string of automatic sell orders on the way down, they said. “It is a total meltdown, totally unexpected. There is no explanation,” one bullish trader said. “We have hit technical level after technical level,” he added.

 

Michael McDougall, at Newedge brokers in New York, added: “We have seen a good clean-up of speculators.”

 

The scale of the slide could in part be due to relatively thin trading volumes due to the Veterans Day holiday. ...  Earlier in the day, March raw sugar futures touched a peak of 33.39 cents a pound, the highest level since January 1981.  ...."

 

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2010. You may share using our article tools. Please don't cut articles from FT.com and redistribute by email or post to the web.”

 

 

I believe BIG will offer an explanation next week w.r. to Jeff wife`s action. I hope it is not another case of marital dissolution similar to that of  John. Whatever it is, an answer from the management is needed.

investor      ( Date: 13-Nov-2010 17:53) Posted: Actually, staff of Biosensors will be especially sensitive to selling shares in Biosensors, when they are in possession of information that others do not have. A case in point, their finance mgr, M/s Chua Yang Joo sold some shares in Biosensors, just before it was announcing one of their qtrly results, which was a loss, and she has been fined for that by the authorities. It could be a case of ignorance, or maybe she felt that it was not significant. Whatever the reason, she is still in the employment of Biosensors, meaning that mgmt still has confidence in her. As ' Alright' has said -mgmt or whosoever are NOT ALLOWED to sell shares in Biosensors, if they are in possession of sensitive information, in this case meaning information that is detrimental to the company. (although I wonder whether you are allowed to sell shares, when you know info that may impact the share price positively !) I am sure that Jeff Jump is sensible enough to know this. ANd by the act of his wife selling now - can we interpret that as there is no new information that is detrimental to Biosensors ? Again, an informal analysis. I may not necessarily be right. And not a call to buy/sell.

 

Actually, staff of Biosensors will be especially sensitive to selling shares in Biosensors, when they are in possession of information that others do not have.

A case in point, their finance mgr, M/s Chua Yang Joo sold some shares in Biosensors, just before it was announcing one of their qtrly results, which was a loss, and she has been fined for that by the authorities. It could be a case of ignorance, or maybe she felt that it was not significant. Whatever the reason, she is still in the employment of Biosensors, meaning that mgmt still has confidence in her.

As ' Alright' has said -mgmt or whosoever are NOT ALLOWED to sell shares in Biosensors, if they are in possession of sensitive information, in this case meaning information that is detrimental to the company. (although I wonder whether you are allowed to sell shares, when you know info that may impact the share price positively !)

I am sure that Jeff Jump is sensible enough to know this. ANd by the act of his wife selling now - can we interpret that as there is no new information that is detrimental to Biosensors ?

Again, an informal analysis. I may not necessarily be right. And not a call to buy/sell.

 

I am sure you are NOT ALLOWED to sell if there is anything wrong with the company..its an offence. So for whatever personal reason JUMP's wife sold, I think he  should give  an explanation. compare with  John Shultze on 16th of June2010, explained that he had to sell as a result of his dissolution of marriage. 

 

I think that the underlying fear of investors when they see senior mgmt sell shares are

1) There is something wrong with the company and the mgmt is selling.

2) The share price is overvalued currently and therefore they sell.

 

If we look at the first reason, the company has performed quite well in the current qtr, and financial figures do not lie (unless there is fraud), or there is something that is about to happen, but has not yet happened.

But if that is so, then why does Hony want to buy upto 29.5 % stake ? Not logical isn't it ?. Also Biosensors products are subjected to international standards, like the global clinical trials, with international well known physicians, international quality checks for medical results, competing with J & J product (the cypher stent)  which used to be the 'gold standard' in that category.

Also, with the 3rd year results out, the outcome is pretty well established (most physicians will look at at least 2 yrs results), and highly unlikely to differ very much going into the 4th yr.

If the reason for selling is no. 2, then I will say that it is fair enough, as the share price has gone up from 0.81 cents to 1.26 (highest point) in the last few mths, more than a 50 % rise!

If I have 5 million shares, I may also sell a qtr of that, ie 1 million shares. (I suspect for investors holding quite a number of shares, the thought of selling might have cross their minds.).

The perceived value of Biosensor's share will changed as their earnings grow  or decline as the case may be and as more events happen, like getting approval in Japan or China.

Lastly, I want to mention that the new Co-CEO, Dr. Jack Wang has just been granted a 2 million share options for Biosensors, and the excercise price is US 0.92 cents (or approx S$1.18), and he needs to ensure that the value of Biosensors go up before he can benefit from that option.

Again, just a personal observation, and I may not be necessarily right. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

 

 

 

My view of BIG is not only it must have best products, its management team must also be committed and effective. I have no doubt that the members of the old team have done very well and their effort not only make  BIG cardiac stent one of the best in the market, they also brought in new team (Hony) who is know to be financially strong and also very well connected and entrepreneurial. I read  the company profile of Hony and noted that those companies that they bought control over usually take about 2years to have their value multiply several times. Probably this may be the case for BIG too . Now we have few new members added to the team and hopefully they will all work together harmoniously with the old members to bring benefit to all of us.      

investor      ( Date: 12-Nov-2010 22:57) Posted: There can be many reasons why senior mgmt sell their shares - maybe buying a house, asset allocation, etc. I remember just before Biosensors got CE mark approval in Jan 2008, the Chief Technical Officer John Schulze also sold some shares, and even earlier this yr, he also sold some. For whatever reasons, all investors should follow closely and focus on the company's performance, and make their own judgement. So far, in the last 3 yrs  or so  Biosensors have their qtrly conference, they have always been transparent and have always outperform their own guidance. In the recent conference, although their half yr revenue was only US$61m, they have stick to their forecast of between US$135m - US$145m, meaning that their revenue will be between US$74m-US$84m, and their forecast for DES sales is still in excess of 40 %. And bear in mind, they tend to outperform their own forecast. Again, a personal observation, Not a call to buy/sell.

 

Apologies - some typo error.

I mean that their revenue for the NEXT 2nd half of the year will be between US$74m to US$84m, surpassing the first half.

 

 

There can be many reasons why senior mgmt sell their shares - maybe buying a house, asset allocation, etc.

I remember just before Biosensors got CE mark approval in Jan 2008, the Chief Technical Officer John Schulze also sold some shares, and even earlier this yr, he also sold some.

For whatever reasons, all investors should follow closely and focus on the company's performance, and make their own judgement.

So far, in the last 3 yrs  or so  Biosensors have their qtrly conference, they have always been transparent and have always outperform their own guidance.

In the recent conference, although their half yr revenue was only US$61m, they have stick to their forecast of between US$135m - US$145m, meaning that their revenue will be between US$74m-US$84m, and their forecast for DES sales is still in excess of 40 %. And bear in mind, they tend to outperform their own forecast.

Again, a personal observation, Not a call to buy/sell.

 

 

(i) Mr. Jump is deemed interested in 1,408,425 shares of Biosensors International Group, Ltd. held by his wife, Julia Dorcas Jump.

(ii) Mr. Jump has options to subscribe for 4,316,805 ordinary shares in Biosensors International Group, Ltd.

 

Politic in play. Seems like Jeff is not happy over Hony Capital for putting Dr. Jack as Co-CEO. I'm not surprised that he might step down later. These China businessmen want full control over the board, they prefer someone of their kind who they can trust to run the company than leaving it to an Ang Mo.

Jeff only took over as CEO for less than 5 months, selling his shares now look more like slapping his own face and casting a no confident vote for himself in front of the management.

 

I think it important to note that CEO still has many many many millions of shares and options in his and family's name.  PLUS many over $100M from sale of stock.  $100M is a LOT of $$$$.  I agree with comment about wife, rumor they are separated. 

CFO did not quit as much as job left him.  He is in US job moved to Singapore, he is rich with many millions of options (think they add to 7M) so he stayed at home and cashed out options.  Nothing wrong with that!!!!

I think just concentrate on Company and what it is doing:  Great clinical trials, increasing sales and profits, proprietary technology, new markets, new proprietary products in pipe.  Looks good to me.  

 

ANYWAY I think he should make a statement explaining the sale. Biosensors PR department is not good in this sense. 

 

 

I think its HIS WIFE not him