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topdog22 ( Date: 27-Nov-2010 23:29) Posted:
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On Friday, Biosensor remains supported on the 20 days MA and closed at $1.19 with regular volume of 15.5 million shares traded.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
Both RSI & MACD are turning flat as MACD lines began to converse together.
Important Resistance of Biosensor: $1.25
Immediate Support of Biosensor: $1.12
Currently prices are supported at 20 days MA at $0.715
On 19/Nov, prices re-test the critical 36 month resistance turned support and rebounded off this level although the trading volume is relatively low.
Biosensor has been a very bullish stock and has rally since Sept 2010.
Although it would be my dream to buy near the 200 days MA as it has been supporting the prices well, however we would expect the support at $1.12 to be very strong and will not be breached unless heavy selling pressure.
SEE ANALYSIS FOR GOLDEN AGRI
Thus if interested, do consider $1.12 as entry price.
Don't know about Lenovo, BUT BIG could easily surpass price targets and be a $2.50 counter. BIG would still have a reasonable market value when compared to Hong Kong based Lepu and Microport.
Recent volumes, although greater than 3M still appear fairly light. It appears as though investment funds may be nibbling at counter while local punters play.
Biosensors may be able to get japan approval in January
Japan's ministry of health usually announce approval in early January.
a) Taxus Liberte 28 Jan 2009
b Xience ---8 Jan 2010
c) Promus ... 8 Jan 2010
d) Biomatrix ... Jan 2011???
Sorry, when I did cut & paste something??? happened, here it is again - Article appeared in UOB KayHian technical analysis and focuses on government directed consolidation in healthcare industry. Significant amount of Hony is owned by Chinese Gov't, so my conjecture this government move may have impacted BIG value
Healthcare –
Consolidation gaining traction; Sinopharm and GPC are leading
beneficiaries
What’s New
• Policies for restructuring and M&A. The Chinese government has
recently issued the “Guidance on speeding up the restructuring of the
healthcare industry“. One of the key points of the guide is to encourage
restructuring and M&As across different areas with an attempt to promote
economies of scale and industry consolidation. The guidance has set an
explicit target for the top 100 pharmaceutical companies to achieve over
50% of the industry’s total revenue within the next five years from 42% as
of end-09.
• Increasing M&A activities. Sanofi-Aventis closed two deals in November,
one of which hit a transaction value of US$521m, the highest in the history
of Chinese OTC drug producers acquired. Nycomed also acquired a local
drug manufacturer in November for a consideration of US$210m. There
were also occasions of local players taking over foreign enterprises. On 9
Nov 10, HEGLN Pharma, a local pharmaceutical company, acquired a
Canadian medical device producer, URO Technology.
• Wholesaling – accelerating consolidation ahead. “Consolidation”
would be a key word of the 12th Five-Year Plan for the pharmaceutical
wholesaling industry. It is the government’s vision to speed up the
consolidation and promote the concentration of the industry so as to
improve safety and lower the prices of drugs. As a result, the number of
distributors across the nation is expected to decline from over 12,000
currently to 2,000 within the next 10 years.
Action
• Sinopharm leading the consolidation. Sinopharm has made four major
acquisitions and some 50 small ones during 1H10 to extend its footprint
into almost all provinces across
to at least carry on with the momentum in 2H10 and 2011, if not speeding
up. The coverage of Level 3 hospitals, the most lucrative segment, stood
at 83% as of 1H10 and is expected to reach 100% by end-11.
• Two potential contributors of earnings surprise. Besides its major
battlefield in the hospital market, Sinopharm has started to explore
opportunities in the following: a) the rural markets, and b) the medical
equipment segment, both of which are likely to contribute additional
earnings growth, in our view. The company is catching the superior growth
in the new rural cooperative medical care markets by acquiring a
company, based on which it will set up a separate division focusing on the
low-tier market. On the other hand, Sinopharm has also tapped into the
equipment market by acquiring a small medical devices and consumables
distributor with annual sales of Rmb100m. Management expects to ramp
up equipment sales for 2011 to over Rmb200m, which, although minimal
compared to Sinopharm’s overall revenue, would still add to the bottom
I Agree with investor re: personnell changes: Besides although old management made some operational imr]provements, it was NOT able to provide value to shareholders. New minority owner has PROVEN ability so BIG shareholders lucky.
Maybe BIG price run up related to following UOBKAYHIAN research report (below) about consolidation in China??
"Healthcare – China
Consolidation gaining traction; Sinopharm and GPC are leading
beneficiaries
What’s New
•
recently issued the “Guidance on speeding up the restructuring of the
healthcare industry“. One of the key points of the guide is to encourage
restructuring and M&As across different areas with an attempt to promote
economies of scale and industry consolidation. The guidance has set an
explicit target for the top 100 pharmaceutical companies to achieve over
50% of the industry’s total revenue within the next five years from 42% as
of end-09.
Policies for restructuring and M&A. The Chinese government has•
one of which hit a transaction value of US$521m, the highest in the history
of Chinese OTC drug producers acquired. Nycomed also acquired a local
drug manufacturer in November for a consideration of US$210m. There
were also occasions of local players taking over foreign enterprises. On 9
Nov 10, HEGLN Pharma, a local pharmaceutical company, acquired a
Canadian medical device producer, URO Technology.
Increasing M&A activities. Sanofi-Aventis closed two deals in November,•
would be a key word of the 12th Five-Year Plan for the pharmaceutical
wholesaling industry. It is the government’s vision to speed up the
consolidation and promote the concentration of the industry so as to
improve safety and lower the prices of drugs. As a result, the number of
distributors across the nation is expected to decline from over 12,000
currently to 2,000 within the next 10 years.
Wholesaling – accelerating consolidation ahead. “Consolidation”Action
•
acquisitions and some 50 small ones during 1H10 to extend its footprint
into almost all provinces across China. Management expects the company
to at least carry on with the momentum in 2H10 and 2011, if not speeding
up. The coverage of Level 3 hospitals, the most lucrative segment, stood
at 83% as of 1H10 and is expected to reach 100% by end-11.
Sinopharm leading the consolidation. Sinopharm has made four major•
battlefield in the hospital market, Sinopharm has started to explore
opportunities in the following: a) the rural markets, and b) the medical
equipment segment, both of which are likely to contribute additional
earnings growth, in our view. The company is catching the superior growth
in the new rural cooperative medical care markets by acquiring a Jiangxi
company, based on which it will set up a separate division focusing on the
low-tier market. On the other hand, Sinopharm has also tapped into the
equipment market by acquiring a small medical devices and consumables
distributor with annual sales of Rmb100m. Management expects to ramp
up equipment sales for 2011 to over Rmb200m, which, although minimal
compared to Sinopharm’s overall revenue, would still add to the bottom
line given the segment’s higher profitability with 30% gross margin and
10% net margin."
Two potential contributors of earnings surprise. Besides its major(HK$) (HK$)
Actually, if you look carefully, there is only one key post, ie the CFO where the resignation is of significance.
Kevin Sayer's resignation (the CFO) is perfectly understandable, as the US office has been closed, leaving only 2-3 skeleton staff, and he does not wish to reside in SPore.
Eric Loh Chee Mun's resignation (the SVP in charge of investor relations) is not that significant, such that it is not announced in SGX. According to the newspaper report, he has served almost 10 yrs in Biosensors, and it is also logical, if he changes job. After all, how many of us has stayed 10 yrs in the same job ?.
The resignation of the independent director, Lincoln Chee, is such that SGX will normally query, ( it is the norm for SGX to query), as resignation of directors may indicate some dis-satisfaction with the company. But in this particular case, with the entry of a new MAJOR shareholder, there would normally be a change in directors to reflect the new shareholder's influence in the Board.
If you look at the current mkt activity, the mkt does not seem to be too concern about the changes, and in fact, from the looks of it, there seems to be some accumulation. (my own conjecture). If not why is the share price going up, and even higher, then before this Korean saga occured.
Time will tell, whether this conjecture is correct. However, I must say that it is not that easy for the stock to clear a new high (ie higher than recent high of 1.25), unless there is some new catalyst. But for now, it seems that the current uptrend is still intact, unless it drops lower than the recent low of 1.10.
Even if it drops lower than 1.10, it does not mean that its long term uptrend has been violated, but when it happens, it will be a 'story' for another day.
Some conjecture on my part on why there is strength in the stock. Probably the CEO's words that Japan approval is imminent is having an effect.
ALso, Abbot's Xience/Promus DES has captured more than 70 % of the Japan's mkt since its launch early this year ! - Amazing. This shows that Japanese are quick to embrace new technology.
WIth this thought in mind, Nobori. under Terumo might be able to capture more that the 20 % mkt share estimate Nomura's analyst has predicted, when approval is given.
As Japan's mkt size is US$600m, a 20% mkt share is about US$120m, and Biosensor's share of it is probably 30 % (my own estimate) - which is pure profit to Biosensors, and flows right down to the bottom line.
Again, some conjecture, and I may not be right. Not a call to buy/sell or short.
When Hony took over chairman's stake, the shake-up has been anticpated and looks set to continue. Though this shake-up creates uncertainty, it is not neccearily negative for company. It takes at least six month to be able to judge if this new management team is Honey or Horny.
Profit taking while u can !
Once again...
Profit taking while u can !
Profit taking while u can !
Profit taking while u can !
Thunder storm is COMING!
My take: Biosensors will trade between 1.08 to 1.18 till mid December. Mid-december can expect price to go up again to 1.20+ in anticipation of possible news in Janauary.
There is a good chance that Biosensors could get Japan's approval in January -last 2 years- Japan's ministry of health announced approval of stents in Jaanuary.
I am also interested... Perferstorm care to share?
Perfectstorm:
Thankyou for the chart, could you please explain what it means to me?
does it mean the stock is poised for a breakout to the upside? and if so what is the next resistance point?
thanks
