SPC   

SPC

Agree with Nicky, even Chevron in down over 2%.

 

hate to throw u wet towel....dont thk SPC will move independently of the majority trend of general mkt...likely SPC will fall close to $6 coming mon.... :)

if not my SHORTISTs battalion will make sure it do so...hee :P

 

I am convinced now that SPC share price tracks the Crude Oil. Today SPC drop in price was not entirely because the drop of DJ. Last night this hour I congratulated CKS for his new position in SPC and expecting a rising today because Crude oil was traded at $77. Then this morning when the mkt opens in red, I checked the price of crude oil and was found to have drop $3.00 overnight, trading at about $73-$74. Coupled with frantic selling, SPC nose dive to $6.30 (-50 cents). Later in the afternoon, the crude oil rised then SPC recouped back the lost. Now while I am writing, crude oil is up by $1.00. We should see SPC opens on Monday with a bang, back to $7.00 region. To break the resistance of $7.05 barrier, will depends on the mkt optimisim and believes that oil is indeed in play now, reaching $100.00 in a few months time. And I believe so, probably ard $85-$90 region.

 

idesa168, 'UNFORTUNATELY' I didnt get any.  Maybe I will if the bear starts hugging the price and hug it for a longer while. :)

I had an appointment with the gardener at 2pm after my nap to prune two trees in my garden after that it was cleaning cleaning and cleaning. I finished at about 3.30pm and noticed the price didnt move much so I called it a day.

Have a pleasant weekend ahead guys!



 

 

SPC has a volatile day, those bought at $6.30 should be smiling. Even the Friday closing price is still ok to load up next week.

 

 

good for you Senoir Pinnacle.. congrats!  I am certain you will make money this round...!!  Even if Dow is not good, I dont think our SPC would be affected much this round...

 

Yes. I think so too...

I observed the movement of the price, based on gut feel, then just "HOOT"...

At least this is the only consolation I got from all the bleeding I suffered today. Had cut lost on a few counters.

 

Pinnacle, it's so amazing that you managed to get your share at $6.30. There were one 3 buyers managed to get that price - 3 lots (9.10am), 5 lots (2.11pm) and 100 lots (2.11pm). You must go buy 4D to have gotten the share in this gloomy mkt today for that price. Congratulation!

 

Tonite, US is going to announce their GDP.

Certainly, it's not going to be a good figure. But just cross our fingers that the market is not going to react as badly as last nite.

Or else...

 

I think the "white knight" would be BBs from the European market opening up and recovering.. I agree with sir... from another lain ikan bilis  ....

 

The bear was dominating the whole day until the white knights come to the rescue in the last 10 mins of the trading session. 316 lots and 486 lots buying up that almost killed the bear and move the share price by 2 notch. Subsequent buying up of 92 lots and the last 470 lots nail the coffin for the day. Congratulation (in advance) to all that held on to this counter throughout the gloomy day. We are seeing a very bullish chart pattern that bottom out at $6.30 and ending the session $6.60, 6 notches up. We should see bullish pattern on the chart in the coming days. $6.80 & $7.00 is not far away, probably a week or 2 (just guessing) if there is no massive selldown again like today. Crude Oil is at healthy level US$75.30....end of commentary from a ikan bilis!

 

What a bloody day!!!

At least closed at $6.60. Paper gain $0.30.

This shows that opportunity is everywhere, everytime. Just that whether we can grab it or not.

This is a great counter, so it never bother me when I start to reload this counter.

Now, its up to DJ and S&P to perform tonite, else we will see more bloody on Monday.

 

now trading at 6.30...with the interim div...it is trading at 6.10 now...quite attractive basing on your analysis...

 

Loaded another 5 lots at bargain price of $6.30.

So GSS just started.

 

My target price at $8.20 is based on your 110 estimates and 7.5X PE. I am becoming chinkiasu liao...lol

 

CKS SIR...salute to you with the nos, save me from punching the calculator, thanks. Your estimates seems to be on the conservative side. RM from $9.00 this quarter will not likely be trading at $6.00 in next 6 mths (hope not). But hey, even with these conseravtive approach to the numbers, we are seeing undervalue in SPC. Wow... are we seeing EPS 110¢, I hope so. With today's price, it's trading at only 8+PE (rolling). So I would say it is grossly undervalue. I had valued SPC at $9.00 previously, thats why I am nor fearful buying in all these while, even took new position today. As intrinsic value is concern, more often than not, the mkt will not trade to its "fair value", the mkt is always not efficient, if not you & me & many others will not make $$ from it by investing. So I am happy to settle with $8.20-$8.50 if the day comes.

 

let us try to make some estimate on the extra 6,000 bpd from Oyong..  assuming price is $70 per barrel, and extraction costs etc $20 we should have "profit" of $50 or S$70.  Therefore, profit per day from Oyong would be 420,000 per day. and if productions starts in September we have 120 days production or approx S$50 million to the table.  This should translate to extra eps of 9.7cts. 

Let me also try to estimate 2H07 refining profits.  If we assume very conservative RM of $6 we should have about S$230 million (6x1.52x140000) or eps of about 45cts. So this may be added to 56cts now in the bag and the extra 9.7 we should have Yr2007 eps at > $1.10  and assuming PE8.0  the TP should be $8.8.  I have not factored in admin/other ops costs but I also did not add in the trading profits plus kakap...

so I say the current S$6.45 price is really irrationally undervalued...  I wish I had a million more bucks to spare...

 

 

I see this as a great opportunity to load up more, if you have deep pocket.

You will get the dividends and potientially lot of upside.

 

Looking at the chart now, if SPC stay this way all the way to closing, it is very bullish. which means if the share price stays abover $6.50, we shd see so upside in the coming days, short term lah. Now on the long term, great news from Pinnacle that they are pumping oil from Oyong in Sept. This will boost SPC biz a lot, additional 6,000bpd added onto Kakp 2,540bpd. Tha's 50% increase for the throughput. But now to September is 2 mths away, some screw up may happened during these 2 mths. Cross fingers lah! There is brighter days ahead, everyone. Not so gloomy everyday, cheer up!