Neptune Orient L Rg   

NOL

Line to bring in peak season surcharge on the westbound Asia-North Europe trade of $750 per teu, $1,000 per feu and $1,200 per high-cube feu MAERSK Line is set to break another record this year when it introduces what is possibly the largest ever series of peak season surcharges. The world’s largest container line is currently preparing a formal announcement, but Lloyd’s List has learnt from customers and freight forwarding sources that on July 15 it will bring in a peak season surcharge on the westbound Asia-North Europe trade of $750 per teu, $1,000 per feu and $1,200 per high-cube feu. One forwarder working in the trade said: “We are currently waiting to see what reaction may come from other shipping lines. We are actively challenging this level of surcharge on behalf of our customers.” He added: “We are speaking with Maersk quite vociferously, and expecting the teu count to afford us discounts. So we may get some upside as regards margins.” He explained that at the heart of problem for shippers and forwarders was a lack of available containers. “The PSS is the largest yet to be introduced on the Asia/North Europe trade this year and follows earlier reports that equipment shortage issues were affecting most trade lanes on a global level. The equipment shortages have been primarily caused by the slow steaming policies which reduce fuel costs but mean that the containers are spending longer on the water for each journey, with estimates suggesting as much as an additional 20 days on a round trip rotation.” Another freight forwarder said that what was unusual about the Maersk announcement, apart from the sheer sale of the surcharges, was the differential between twenty foot and fort foot box. “Normally the peak season surcharge is per teu, and the feu surcharge is simply double that. This is very strange because it is almost as if we are being penalised for shipping 20 fts.” He said that rumours of a shortage of containers in Asia had been circulating for a number of months, but “now it is the reality”. “The equipment shortages are also caused by the fact that last year the carries didn’t have any dough, and they didn’t place any orders for new containers.” Maersk was rumoured to have placed an order for between 750,000 and 1m containers, which was denied by a Maersk spokeswoman. “We haven’t made an order of that magnitude,” she said. However, she added: “We’re currently working hard to source additional containers, and to minimise the inconvenience for our customers, we have initiated the production of new containers as well as leasing as many units as possible. “Also, Maersk Line has re-activated laid up ships to move a significant number of containers from the east coast of North America and Latin America to Asia. Furthermore, we are using non-operating reefer containers as substitutes for dry containers. “We are carefully monitoring our loading procedures to make sure that we have equipment available to meet our existing commitments, and we are leveraging our global network to optimise equipment availability. Forwarder said that the situation was expected to get worse for container line customers in the coming months. “We started seeing this coming through about six weeks ago in parts of northern China, but now it is a widespread,” one forwarder said. “As a result, container lines are trying to cut back on the allocations they have agreed with larger customers, it doesn’t matter if you are a large shipper or a freight forwarder, if you want 100 containers, there are only 80 out there.” He added that this had turned on its head the normal volume discounts larger customer are able to get from carriers. “What traditionally happens is that if you book say 1,000 containers with a carrier, you will get a 10% discount on the next 500 boxes. Now it is the opposite, if you want to ship the extra 500 boxes, you will pay a surcharge on top of the agreed rate.” Some other carriers have also announced peak season surcharges. Zim will bring in a $175 per teu, and $350 per feu PSS on July 1 between Asia and Europe, Mediterranean and Black Sea. Evergreen this week announced a rate restoration programme on Far East and Indian subcontinent to Europe and Mediterranean of $250 per teu, $500 per feu and $600 per high-cube feu. “With all the GRIs, rate restoration programmes, peak season surcharges, freight rate are heading towards $5,000 per feu from Asia to Europe,” another source said. Lloyd’s List has also been led to understand that several carriers are considering the introduction of a “container imbalance surcharge”. A freight forwarder told Lloyd’s List: “Nothing’s been announced yet, but a couple of carriers are talking about adding a surcharge for positioning a box at the Chinese port of loading. Say you want to ship from Yantian and the carrier has to get the box there from Taiwan, it’s like to cost another $250.”

harley22ez      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 13:57) Posted: June 10 2010 Cosco charges US$40/TEU intra-Asia 'imbalance fee' COSCO Container Lines has announced a new surcharge its website calls a "container imbalance fee" to be applied to all shipments from north China to southeast Asia from June 21. While there was no explanation of the meaning of the CNY300 (US$40) charge per TEU and CNY600 per FEU, it is understood that it compensates for the imbalance between headhaul and backhaul in rates and volumes. -source : schednet.com harley22ez      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 13:53) Posted: Chile’s Vapores Rises to 19-Month High on 2010 Volume Estimates Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Eduardo Thomson June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Compania Sudamericana de Vapores SA, Latin America’s largest container shipping company, rose to the highest price in 19 months after disclosing higher transport estimates for this year. Vapores’s shares rose 4.5 percent to 501.5 pesos at 3:04 p.m. New York time, after gaining as much as 5.2 percent in Santiago trading. It touched 505.1 pesos, the highest intraday price since Nov. 11, 2008. The benchmark IPSA index rose 0.8 percent to 3,907. CSAV, as the company is also known, expects to ship approximately 2.92 million twenty feet equivalent container units in 2010, 63 percent more than in 2009, the company said in a presentation to investors posted yesterday on its website. “CSAV also said in that presentation that it expects a profit in the second quarter of 2010,” Hernan Guerrero, head of research at BBVA Corredores de Bolsa SA, said today by telephone from Santiago. “The company is finally breaking the trend of several quarters with losses.” To contact the reporter on this story: Eduardo Thomson in Santiago at ethomson1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: June 9, 2010 15:13 E

 

June 10 2010
Cosco charges US$40/TEU intra-Asia 'imbalance fee'

COSCO Container Lines has announced a new surcharge its website calls a "container imbalance fee" to be applied to all shipments from north China to southeast Asia from June 21.
While there was no explanation of the meaning of the CNY300 (US$40) charge per TEU and CNY600 per FEU, it is understood that it compensates for the imbalance between headhaul and backhaul in rates and volumes.

-source : schednet.com

harley22ez      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 13:53) Posted: Chile’s Vapores Rises to 19-Month High on 2010 Volume Estimates Share Business ExchangeTwitterFacebook| Email | Print | A A A By Eduardo Thomson June 9 (Bloomberg) -- Compania Sudamericana de Vapores SA, Latin America’s largest container shipping company, rose to the highest price in 19 months after disclosing higher transport estimates for this year. Vapores’s shares rose 4.5 percent to 501.5 pesos at 3:04 p.m. New York time, after gaining as much as 5.2 percent in Santiago trading. It touched 505.1 pesos, the highest intraday price since Nov. 11, 2008. The benchmark IPSA index rose 0.8 percent to 3,907. CSAV, as the company is also known, expects to ship approximately 2.92 million twenty feet equivalent container units in 2010, 63 percent more than in 2009, the company said in a presentation to investors posted yesterday on its website. “CSAV also said in that presentation that it expects a profit in the second quarter of 2010,” Hernan Guerrero, head of research at BBVA Corredores de Bolsa SA, said today by telephone from Santiago. “The company is finally breaking the trend of several quarters with losses.” To contact the reporter on this story: Eduardo Thomson in Santiago at ethomson1@bloomberg.net. Last Updated: June 9, 2010 15:13 E harley22ez      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 12:15) Posted: rate increase !!!!!!!! Freight forwarders and shippers on the Asia-Europe trade have been warned they could be faced with equipment shortages and tight capacity during the coming peak season, according to the world’s third largest shipping line.  CMA CGM Senior VP Asia-Europe Nicolas Sartini told IFW the volumes experienced by shipping lines so far this year were “a little bit incredible”.  He expected demand to remain strong over the next three months and, as a result, he believes there is a risk that vessel space “could be tight” in the third quarter. He also said the industry could be faced with an equipment shortage.  He said: “In terms of container availability, we are starting to see the impact of slow-steaming. It takes more time to bring back the equipment to Asia from Europe and the US, on any trade.  “Secondly, because of the difficulty in accessing credit for financing, there was a lack of container ordering in 2009, and also this year.  “The lines are faced with very strong demand and difficulty in getting efficient equipment in time." As a result of the increased volumes, he expected to see a “correction” in rates in July, when second-quarter rates expire and carriers start to implement peak-season surcharges.  CMA CGM has announced a third-quarter rate increase on the Asia-Europe trade of US$250 per teu and it will implement a peak season surcharge of $200 per teu with two weeks’ notice.  Sartini’s remarks reflect those of forwarders who told IFW they were already noticing tightening of space and equipment shortages.  Looking further ahead, Sartini said the situation in Greece and the impact on the euro could also impact volumes in the fourth quarter – “a situation that we must take into consideration and treat seriously”.

 

harley22ez      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 12:15) Posted: rate increase !!!!!!!! Freight forwarders and shippers on the Asia-Europe trade have been warned they could be faced with equipment shortages and tight capacity during the coming peak season, according to the world’s third largest shipping line.  CMA CGM Senior VP Asia-Europe Nicolas Sartini told IFW the volumes experienced by shipping lines so far this year were “a little bit incredible”.  He expected demand to remain strong over the next three months and, as a result, he believes there is a risk that vessel space “could be tight” in the third quarter. He also said the industry could be faced with an equipment shortage.  He said: “In terms of container availability, we are starting to see the impact of slow-steaming. It takes more time to bring back the equipment to Asia from Europe and the US, on any trade.  “Secondly, because of the difficulty in accessing credit for financing, there was a lack of container ordering in 2009, and also this year.  “The lines are faced with very strong demand and difficulty in getting efficient equipment in time." As a result of the increased volumes, he expected to see a “correction” in rates in July, when second-quarter rates expire and carriers start to implement peak-season surcharges.  CMA CGM has announced a third-quarter rate increase on the Asia-Europe trade of US$250 per teu and it will implement a peak season surcharge of $200 per teu with two weeks’ notice.  Sartini’s remarks reflect those of forwarders who told IFW they were already noticing tightening of space and equipment shortages.  Looking further ahead, Sartini said the situation in Greece and the impact on the euro could also impact volumes in the fourth quarter – “a situation that we must take into consideration and treat seriously”. victorf      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 11:43) Posted: best counter to buy on dip for the recovery story....good luck :)

 

rate increase !!!!!!!!

Freight forwarders and shippers on the Asia-Europe trade have been warned they could be faced with equipment shortages and tight capacity during the coming peak season, according to the world’s third largest shipping line. 

CMA CGM Senior VP Asia-Europe Nicolas Sartini told IFW the volumes experienced by shipping lines so far this year were “a little bit incredible”. 

He expected demand to remain strong over the next three months and, as a result, he believes there is a risk that vessel space “could be tight” in the third quarter. He also said the industry could be faced with an equipment shortage. 

He said: “In terms of container availability, we are starting to see the impact of slow-steaming. It takes more time to bring back the equipment to Asia from Europe and the US, on any trade. 

“Secondly, because of the difficulty in accessing credit for financing, there was a lack of container ordering in 2009, and also this year. 

“The lines are faced with very strong demand and difficulty in getting efficient equipment in time."

As a result of the increased volumes, he expected to see a “correction” in rates in July, when second-quarter rates expire and carriers start to implement peak-season surcharges. 

CMA CGM has announced a third-quarter rate increase on the Asia-Europe trade of US$250 per teu and it will implement a peak season surcharge of $200 per teu with two weeks’ notice. 

Sartini’s remarks reflect those of forwarders who told IFW they were already noticing tightening of space and equipment shortages. 

Looking further ahead, Sartini said the situation in Greece and the impact on the euro could also impact volumes in the fourth quarter – “a situation that we must take into consideration and treat seriously”.

victorf      ( Date: 10-Jun-2010 11:43) Posted: best counter to buy on dip for the recovery story....good luck :)

 

best counter to buy on dip for the recovery story....good luck :)

 

BOS says Asia trade is not sustainable in Yesterday Straits Times Home section....will see which orifice the words came from. in 6 months time.

 

Any insight?

 

June 7 2010
Container shipping volume to grow 6-8% by year end after strong Q1

Container shipping volumes are expected to rise six to eight per cent by the end of this year despite companies in the industry showing double digit growth in the first quarter. Experts said trans-Pacific routes and those between Europe and Asia are likely to slow the most while intra-Asia services remain stable. Container shipping seems to be coming back after a tough 2009. According to shipping consultants Drewry Maritime, volumes have risen some 40 per cent on-year in the first quarter of 2010.
Market watchers said that's largely because of last year's low base.
But they said, going forward, there are still risks like Europe's debt crisis and unemployment in the US, which may affect consumption.
Divay Goel, head of Asia Operations, Drewry Maritime Services Asia, said: "If the contagion spreads to the bigger economies, there would be a sentimental reaction, like we saw in 2008's last quarter and 2009 - a slow down in credit which affects trade because it would become difficult to get letters of credit."
And there could be another cap to improvement for the sector this year as analysts said that in light of improving volumes, companies have been re-introducing ships that were moth-balled during the crisis, thus driving down rates for the rest of the year. Contract freight rates for Asia-Europe and Trans-Pacific routes have risen up to 25 per cent since the start of the year.
Intra-Asia rates have only gained about 12 per cent and are generally expected to hold up better due to fewer macro-economic risks.
Combined with potential overcapacity, the container sector is expected to end the year on a choppy note.
Katharine Cheong- Koh, director of Research, Island Shipbrokers, said: "We are seeing a more moderated recovery on the demand side and in terms of supply, we're seeing heavy pressures in terms of supply overhang.
“For example, we can see those 5,000 TEU and above container ships. 45 per cent is their ratio for order-book over fleet, so that's still a very huge percentage."
Volumes are expected to grow six to seven per cent across the board by the end of the year with supply of shipping capacity hitting seven to eight per cent, leaving the sector with still more fat to work off.

Source: CNA

 

agree...market is expected to be high due to shortage of containers within the shipping industry....sure cheong!!!!!HUAT ARGH!!!!!!!

June 6 2010
Container crunch rattles shipping companies

Freight rates and volumes have spiked but containers are expected to remain in dire shortage until September, Business Times Singapore reported. "The trade is recovering - very much so. But the issue is, the shipping lines are facing a shortage of containers, and it's getting very critical," said Tan Chor Kee, deputy managing director of Pacific International Lines (PIL).
The choke in container supply threatens to be a spanner in the recovery of an industry that lost US$15-20 billion worldwide last year as freight rates plunged as much as 30 percent.
Caught offguard by restocking and recovery in volumes in the first quarter of this year, shipping firms are now scrambling for containers, having bought virtually none while selling too many last year.
"Last year, there were no depots for the boxes to sit, so they were sold to the domestic market, to places like worksites, and were taken out of circulation," said Tan.
Further up the supply chain, container factories have production problems of their own, having severely reduced headcount last year. Some are fully booked until as far as September as shipping lines struggle to increase container capacity in time for the start of the peak season in June.
"We actually think that one of the biggest challenges in the second half of 2010 is going to be equipment because everybody stopped their equipment investment last year," said Maersk Line chief commercial officer Hanne Sorensen. "It seems now we're going into a situation where we could have quite a shortage, and that's another interesting challenge coming up."
Freight forwarders too will be feeling the pinch of the shortage.
In February, the Mediterranean Shipping Company began charging US$400 per container as an 'Emergency Empty Equipment' positioning charge for all cargo headed to the US from areas like Russia, Finland and Norway.
As the peak shipping season looms, other lines might follow suit.
Even so, freight rates are largely expected to continue upwards this year, fuelled in part by the Transpacific Stabilisation Agreement's guideline for increases of US$800-1,000 per FEU for US-bound routes.
In fact, average rates per FEU might exceed pre-crisis levels by the end of this year, Tan added. Already, rate restoration appears to be in full swing.
Earlier last week, Maersk Line increased rates by $400/FEU on shipments from India to North Europe and the Mediterranean while CMA CGM announced a string of rate hikes last month.
But this remains tempered by market conditions, the shipping lines argue. "We're not back at 2008 levels yet and maybe we're not going to see it much higher because there's also a balance where we need to go out with realistic prices and not push the market too much," said Sorensen.
"Probably Far East-Europe is at an acceptable level although not back at 2008 yet."
Regardless of the sentiment, the immediate logistics crunch of container supply remains, compounded by bad timing. A two-week strike in South Africa last month kept sorely needed containers at its ports for six to seven days.
In addition, the spectre of impending additions to containership capacity hangs over the industry, as liners are expected to gradually bring back more of their idle fleet into operation.

Source: CargoNewsAsia

mwei98      ( Date: 07-Jun-2010 11:58) Posted: Today dipped is an opportunity for long. I have bought 45 lots of NOL. TP 1.94. My view...

 

Today dipped is an opportunity for long. I have bought 45 lots of NOL. TP 1.94. My view...

 

NOL will test 1.94 this week. My view. For those who have bought as mentioned last week, our first TP is 1.94. Thanks...

 

Do you think it will test $1.94 today?

mwei98      ( Date: 27-May-2010 14:24) Posted: Congratulations for those who have bought as mentioned (*:-))

 

Congratulations for those who have bought as mentioned (*:-))

 

NOL is oversold; sign of rebound. (90% possibility)

As such I vested at closing of 1.80, TP is 1.94; strong resistance. My view.

 

 

Back to where he belong : ( 

guppy724      ( Date: 21-May-2010 17:08) Posted: What a come back!..Today opened 1.81..closed 1.89 !   (-1c)

 

I like your optimism! haha...

 

What a come back!..Today opened 1.81..closed 1.89 !   (-1c)

 

Above expectations; maintain OUTPERFORM but lower target price to S$2.50

 

(from S$2.60). NOL’s 1Q core net loss of US$98m is already more than our fullyear

 

forecast for US$85.5m loss and consensus loss forecast of US$95m, but we

 

consider the 1Q results to be above expectations, as NOL guided that full year

 

profitability would be possible if the current trend of operating improvements

 

continues for the rest of the year. No dividend was declared, as expected. We

 

believe the positive guidance will be the key re-rating catalyst for the stock. Our new

 

target price is slightly reduced because of the weaker US$, but remains pegged to

 

1.8x P/BV multiple, which is 20% premium to the upper limit of its 0.5x-1.5x

 

historical trading band. Our core earnings forecasts have been revised up to a profit

 

of US$35m in 2010, to US$328m in 2011 (+22%), and to US$446m in 2012 (+22%)

 

as we factor in a stronger-than-expected cyclical recovery into our numbers.

 

 

• Container shipping losses narrowed. Liner revenue came in at US$7.2bn

 

annualised, which is 13% higher than forecast as both the average rate and volume

 

outstripped expectations. Although 1Q core liner EBIT remained in the red at

 

US$107m loss, it was a substantial improvement from the loss of US$212m in the

 

immediately preceding quarter and US$236m loss a year ago. Europe rates rose

 

40% yoy and 23% qoq, and intra-Asia rates rose 11% yoy and 7% qoq. Rates to the

 

Americas were still 11% lower yoy due to the drag from the previous contract

 

negotiations, but rose 14% qoq as rate hikes were successfully implemented.

 

Volume growth was also very strong at 46% yoy, with IA volume growth the most

 

robust at 60% yoy, followed by TP at 50% and AE at 24% due to the lack of

 

capacity. NOL noted that post-Lunar New Year volumes remain stable. Meanwhile,

 

implementation of slow steaming had helped to reduce fuel consumption.

 

 

• Outlook for transpacific trade looks bright. US retail sales in April increased for

 

the seventh consecutive month, rising 0.4% mom on top of the 2.1% rise in March.

 

Meanwhile, the University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment rose

 

to 73.3 in May from 72.2 in April, and US payrolls increased by 290,000 in April after

 

a 230,000 gain in March. These data suggest that US consumer demand will

 

continue to improve. We also note that spot TP rates to LA/NY have continued to

 

increase to approximately their mid-2008 peaks.

 

Monday: 10 MAY 2010  CLOSING

dOw  +404

BEAR  BARE

 

Monday: 10 MAY 2010  CLOSING

S$2.06    +S$0.09