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If it doesnt close 6.60, 5.85 here we come. :)
Look at the chart and tell me what do you see? No need to know the technicals, jus a visual cue.
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CCI oversold, ADX trend subsiding (reversing), ADX + meeting his darling ADX -.
no worries idesa168, this baby will not fail you... i think it will close above 6.6...
btw in case you folks miss this here is article for another refinery in Singapore!! And pls note my highlighted italics in red: Refinery margin is about $7 (I had assumed $6 in my calculations below)
By Jiwon Chung and Luke Pachymuthu SINGAPORE, July 26 (Reuters) -
Oil trader Concord Energy is seeking to build a multi-billion dollar 150,000 barrels per day (bpd) refinery in Singapore, after it shelved plans for a smaller condensate splitter less than two months ago, industry sources said on Thursday.
If the project goes ahead, it will be the first grassroot oil refinery to be built in Singapore in three decades, and will increase the city-state's refining capacity by 11 percent.
The plant would lead to more fuel shipments to markets such as Indonesia, Australia and the United States, though analysts said it will face growing competition.
"Plans are underway now to build a specialised refinery on the same plot of land which was originally picked for the previous project on Jurong Island," a source familiar with the project said.
It is still unclear how quickly the new facility will start construction, a source said, adding that the privately owned company is in the process of submitting plans to the government's Economic Development Board (EDB) for approval.
Concord Energy and the EDB declined to comment when contacted.
Singapore-based Concord was set up more than eight years ago to trade crude and oil products in Asia's energy trading hub, which has about 1.35 million bpd of refining capacity from majors Exxon Mobil Corp. <XOM.N>, Royal Dutch Shell Plc <RDSa.L> and Singapore Refining Co (SRC).
Concord is expected to tie up with Middle East partners for the project, sources said.
Another source familiar with the plan said that along with a a crude distillation unit, the new refinery might include units such as a residue fluidic catalytic cracker to make gasoline, a hydrocracker for diesel and a thermal cracker for light products.
"It will be a conversion refinery, which means they will build a unit to process residue to lighter products," the second source said.
FORWARD MARGINS KEY
There has been no new complex oil refineries built in Singapore since the mid-1970s. The last major expansion here was in the mid-1990s when SRC, a joint-venture between Singapore Petroleum Co. Ltd <SPCS.SI> and Chevron Corp. <CVX.N>, raised its capacity to 285,000 bpd.
The sources did not give the estimated cost for the proposed facility. But based on Kuwait's recent higher cost estimate for a planned 615,000-bpd refinery to about $14 billion, the project would be valued around $3.4 billion, on a per barrel basis.
Rising global demand for transport fuels and strong margins have led to a raft of new refinery projects in Asia and the Middle East, though growing costs have derailed or delayed many such plans (for table see [ID:nSIN151807]).
"Refining margins are still very strong -- margins right now make the project potentially attractive," said Victor Shum, analyst from Purvin & Gertz in Singapore.
In Singapore, margins for complex refineries cracking Dubai crude over the past five days averaged a healthy $6.99 a barrel <REF/MARGIN1>, after the sector saw losses early this decade. But many analysts see margins declining by the end of the decade.
Shum pointed to rising competition, especially with export-oriented new refineries or upgraded ones being built in India and in Singapore export markets such as Vietnam.
"You have South Korean refiners adding capacity, China is building new refineries, and even Vietnam has a refinery project in the pipeline, so there is a fair bit of competition for them," Shum said.
In June, Concord announced that it had cancelled plans for a $200 million condensate splitter -- the first in Southeast Asia -- after failing to reach an agreement with its Iranian partners who were going to supply the light condensate oil. (Additional reporting by Jonathan Leff) ((Editing by Neil Chatterjee and Ramthan Hussain; Reuters Messaging: luke.pachymuthu.reuters.com@reuters.net; luke.pachymuthu@reuters.com))
aya..dont be so superstitious can or not??? i am no a plague ok?..hee..anyway u shld hv contra EZRA...SPC is likely down now then up...perhaps coming late Aug -Sep will see some actions... :)
Well, asian market is recovering.
So its now up to eur market to perform to complete the recovery.
STI is recovering.
Now is time for SPC to revive to fair value.
S$6.60 is seriously undervalued.
Agence France-Presse
Last updated 06:22am (Mla time) 07/28/2007
NEW YORK -- World oil prices jumped Friday after stronger-than-expected US economic growth data renewed concerns about supply in the face of anticipated demand from the world's biggest economy.
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for delivery in September, soared $2.07 to close at $77.02 per barrel.
In London, the price of Brent North Sea crude for September delivery rose $1.08 to settle at $76.26 per barrel.
The US economy expanded 3.4 percent in the second quarter, the Department of Commerce said Friday, slightly ahead of the average Wall Street estimate of 3.2 percent.
Growth in US gross domestic product picked up after a lackluster 0.6 percent rate, revised downward from 0.7 percent, in the first quarter.
The news came at the end of a rollercoaster week of trading. On Thursday prices fell sharply on mounting concerns that the problems in the subprime mortgage sector, where home loans are extended to people with poor credit, were spreading to the broader economy.
The growth figures "should go a long way towards restoring confidence in the markets," said Mike Fitzpatrick, an analyst at Man Financial.
"The full affects of the subprime mortgage debacle are, as yet, unknown,? he said. ?Certainly, it has shaken the confidence of those who appear to be having second thoughts about whether crude oil prices should be pushed toward last year's highs, especially if global demand growth over the balance of the year is now in question."
In addition, major oil companies are also falling short of production targets, North Sea oil output is falling and OPEC seems to be unwilling to raise production this year.
"Crude oil was up ... bouncing back after yesterday's [Thursday's] selloff that was triggered by concerns the US subprime mortgage crisis could spread to other markets," Sucden brokerage analyst Andrey Kryuchenkov said.
"There are concerns that petroleum demand could be impacted," he added.
On Thursday, world oil prices closed down about a dollar amid renewed US economic fears and a rout across global equity markets.
Before sliding however, the New York contract struck $77.24 -- a level last seen on Aug. 9, 2006 -- as keen global demand and tight supplies fueled speculative buying.
It has been a volatile week for the oil market, with prices beginning the week lower, spiking and then falling again.
Economists are worried that a depressed US housing market could lead to a "credit crunch" and spread to the global economy, thereby crimping demand for crude.
Crude oil prices had kicked off the week lower after OPEC president and United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Mohammed al-Hamli expressed concern over surging prices and said the group was prepared to pump more crude oil if needed.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries holds its next output meeting on Sept. 11 in Vienna, where the cartel is headquartered.
"Hedge funds and investment trusts are looking at oil long-term so there will [continue to] be a steady stream of money into the market," said Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris. "People are getting comfortable with the idea of oil pushing above 100 dollars in the coming years."
Today Straits Times wrote that Canenove Security raise the fair value to $8.45 from $7.39 to reflect the higher refinery margin ..
Great ! ..
in any case here is the latest on oil prices posted one hour ago...Chicago Tribune...
Oil prices closing in on all-time high
Technical buying, growth news blamed
- Associated Press
July 28, 2007
NEW YORK?The price of oil closed higher than $77 a barrel Friday, near an all-time high, on technical buying and news of faster-than-expected economic growth. At the pump, meanwhile, gas prices fell to their lowest level since late May.
Light, sweet crude for September delivery rose $2.07, to settle at $77.02 a barrel, on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The highest-ever settlement price for a front-month contract was $77.03 a barrel, set July 14, 2006. Reflecting how volatile trading in oil futures has been, oil ended the week up only $1.45 a barrel, or 1.9 percent, despite rising more than $2 a barrel on two separate days.
The Commerce Department said the economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.4 percent in the second quarter, removing some of the concerns about economic growth that sent oil prices down Thursday in sympathy with Wall Street's plunge.
and watch by the side lines.....
(the one in dead centre is elf)