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Vard has been trading below 0.900 for about 2 months already after the huge sell down when it broke Critical 1.00 support in July 2013. Has consolidated upwards slowly since end July when it was below 0.800. Have seen it test the 0.900 critical resistance 2 times already over the past month but failed to cross above each time. A slight Ascending triangle pattern formation seen currently and any break up above 0.900 horizontal resistance can see it go to 0.96 to 1.00 quickly. Nobody knows when it will happen so best to plan entry on breakout, monitor closely or set CFD Buy Stop orders to catch it ! High today seen at 0.895. Huge sellers stacked daily at 0.900 so far.
Stop loss at 0.885 on breakout entry.
Maybank KE ? 5 September 2013
Vard Holdings: Waiting to Re-rate Upgrade to Buy, TP $1.12
Ø Upgrade Vard to BUY (from Hold) with higher TP of SGD1.12 pegged to 8x PER on average FY13-15F earnings. In our opinion, current share price has more than priced in the execution issues in its Brazil yards.
Ø Leading OSV owners who are key clients of Vard have expressed high levels of optimism in long-term OSV demand. Vard?s 2013 order wins have also reached our initial expectations and we believe that further order wins would set the stage for a positive re-rating.
Ø Our scenario analysis suggests a bull/bear case TP of SGD1.48/0.80, which makes a compelling investment case based on risk-reward trade-off.
Yes, excellent performance ...
Cheong above 0.9 today ....
Kim Eng Research reported recently that VARD has good positive long term outllook and will beat forcast FY13 with a yield 4-7% FY14 ....
Yes, all the way ...
WanSiTong ( Date: 06-Sep-2013 09:17) Posted:
Next TP : 0.965
Huat arh !!
WanSiTong ( Date: 04-Sep-2013 10:35) Posted:
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Vard Holdings ST: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support
The MACD is above its signal line and positive.
Our pivot point stands at 0.834. Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support. Alternative scenario: below 0.834, expect 0.781 and 0.749. Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the stock is above its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 0.86 and 0.87). Supports and resistances: 1.03 * 0.997 ** 0.965 0.88 last 0.854 0.834 ** 0.781 * Copyright 199 
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One by one ! Haha..........
Simpsons ( Date: 06-Sep-2013 09:21) Posted:
Sailing sailing home
Sailing sailing home
Pls ask your wind to blow tiong woon also leh..lol |
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Sailing sailing home
Sailing sailing home
Pls ask your wind to blow tiong woon also leh..lol
Next TP : 0.965
Huat arh !!
WanSiTong ( Date: 04-Sep-2013 10:35) Posted:
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Vard Holdings ST: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support
The MACD is above its signal line and positive.
Our pivot point stands at 0.834. Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support. Alternative scenario: below 0.834, expect 0.781 and 0.749. Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the stock is above its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 0.86 and 0.87). Supports and resistances: 1.03 * 0.997 ** 0.965 0.88 last 0.854 0.834 ** 0.781 * Copyright 199
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broke 90c.. now 91.5... gap cover target 99.5c still intact
ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Sep-2013 09:18) Posted:
Target to close the gap still on track..
gd luck dyodd
ozone2002 ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 16:16) Posted:
Vard broke from its downtrend and had a reversal on 30 Jul
recovering from low 77c to a high of 83c on that day
Vard likely to close the gap of 99.5c, time being support is @ 83c
cut loss point 80c .. depending on your loss tolerance level
Gd luck DYODD |
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TPTPUPP
Has seen many posts hoping it to fill the gap.... But, it is really really weak.... Can't even break 0.90.....
happyboy588 ( Date: 05-Sep-2013 10:07) Posted:
| see $1 soon , filling in the gap now |
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Vard Holdings
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Waiting to Re-rate |
Leading customers expressed confidence in long term OSV demand. Despite recent Brazilian yard woes, Vard has maintained an unwavering confidence in order win outlook. In their latest quarterly results updates, leading OSV owners who are key clients of Vard have expressed high levels of optimism in long-term OSV demand. Vard?s 2013 order wins have reached our initial expectations and we believe that further order wins would set the stage for a positive re-rating. In our opinion, current share price has more than priced in the execution issues in its Brazil yards. We upgrade the stock to a Buy with TP of SGD1.12 pegged to 8x PER on average FY13-15F earnings (previously SGD0.95, based on 1.4x P/B).
Take opportunity of market skepticism. We think that market remains cautious about Vard?s execution in Brazil after the 2Q13 results disappointment. Recent contract win momentum has failed to invoke a sustained lift to stock price. However, YTD contract win of about NOK11.5b has already matched our initial forecast. With about 3 months to go before the year ends, it would not be difficult to breach Vard?s NOK12b order win expectations, which we believe would trigger the start of a re-rating. We raise our FY13F order win assumption to NOK13.4b (from NOK11.5b).
Changes to forecasts. Based on our revised revenue recognition schedule, FY15F revenue forecast is now higher as we estimate that the Technip-DOF would contribute substantially to FY15F revenue. We have also reduced EBITDA margin assumptions by about 0.7ppt for FY14-15F to be more conservative. Our FY13F/14F/15F net profit figures now differ by -2%/-9%/+9% from our previous forecasts.
Risk-reward tradeoff compelling, Upgrade to Buy, TP SGD1.12. At current valuation levels, we believe that downside risk is limited. Vard trades at FY14F/15F PERs of 6.2x/4.4x. Forward dividend yields ranged between 4-7% with attractive ROEs. Our scenario analysis suggests a bull/bear case TP of SGD1.48/0.80, which makes a compelling investment case based on risk-reward tradeoff. We upgrade the stock to Buy with TP raised to SGD1.12 based on our base case scenario. Vard Holdings ? Summary Earnings Table |
FYE Dec (NOK m) |
FY11 |
FY12 |
FY13F |
FY14F |
FY15F |
Revenue |
12,401 |
11,129 |
11,502 |
12,527 |
15,826 |
EBITDA |
2,355 |
1,473 |
906 |
1,193 |
1,708 |
Recurring Net Profit |
1,594 |
902 |
463 |
756 |
1,051 |
Recurring Basic EPS (cents) |
135.1 |
76.4 |
39.2 |
64.0 |
89.1 |
EPS growth (%) |
34.3 |
(43.4) |
(48.7) |
63.3 |
39.1 |
DPS (SG cents) |
15.0 |
13.0 |
3.0 |
4.5 |
6.0 |
PER |
2.9 |
5.2 |
10.1 |
6.2 |
4.4 |
EV/EBITDA (x) |
2.7 |
4.4 |
7.1 |
5.4 |
3.8 |
Div Yield (%) |
17.4 |
15.1 |
3.5 |
5.2 |
7.0 |
P/BV(x) |
1.3 |
1.5 |
1.5 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
Net Gearing (%) |
(12.1) |
47.2 |
49.7 |
33.9 |
25.9 |
ROE (%) |
54.1 |
27.0 |
14.9 |
22.7 |
26.0 |
ROA (%) |
12.7 |
7.0 |
3.7 |
5.7 |
6.9 |
Consensus Net Profit (NOK m) |
501.2 |
707.4 |
861.4 |
see $1 soon , filling in the gap now
Hope can break 0.90 resistance!
WanSiTong ( Date: 05-Sep-2013 10:03) Posted:
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Vard Yes!
Vard Holdings ST: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support
The MACD is above its signal line and positive.
Our pivot point stands at 0.834.
Our preference: the upside prevails as long as 0.834 is support.
Alternative scenario: below 0.834, expect 0.781 and 0.749.
Comment: the RSI is above its neutrality area at 50. The MACD is above its signal line and positive. The configuration is positive. Moreover, the stock is above its 20 and 50 day MA (respectively at 0.86 and 0.87).
Supports and resistances: 1.03 *
0.997 **
0.965
0.88 last
0.854
0.834 **
0.781 *
Copyright 199
Main catalyst would be signs of margin recovery.
Results likely be released Oct/Nov, no profit guidance most likely good. Profit guidance / weaker than expected consensus margins = plunge again?? (dunno)
Do own due diligence and thanks..
$0.90 hard to break!
Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., Ltd.('MUAM') - Acquisition of Securities via market transaction..bought 4,445,000 of Vard Shares on Sept 2..with so many new contracts> $1 billions..is it time to head higher?
ozone2002 ( Date: 03-Sep-2013 09:53) Posted:
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Vard has secured a new contract for the design and
construction of one Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) for
Carlotta Offshore, a newly established player in the
offshore support vessel market. Delivery is scheduled from
Vard Vung Tau in Vietnam in 4Q 2014. The contract value
was not disclosed. Based on the similar PSV secured in
2011, the contract could worth about NOK300m. This will
bring YTD-FY13 order wins to NOK11.6bn, making up
93% of our order win assumption this year. We expect
Vard to book NOK12.5bn new wins in FY13 and
NOK11.0bn in FY14. Maintain HOLD call and TP of S$0.92
on Vard. |
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Vard has secured a new contract for the design and
construction of one Platform Supply Vessel (PSV) for
Carlotta Offshore, a newly established player in the
offshore support vessel market. Delivery is scheduled from
Vard Vung Tau in Vietnam in 4Q 2014. The contract value
was not disclosed. Based on the similar PSV secured in
2011, the contract could worth about NOK300m. This will
bring YTD-FY13 order wins to NOK11.6bn, making up
93% of our order win assumption this year. We expect
Vard to book NOK12.5bn new wins in FY13 and
NOK11.0bn in FY14. Maintain HOLD call and TP of S$0.92
on Vard.
After the war with Ang Mo yesterday,
COO needs a good good rest today! Pls don't kacau marlin, let her swims happy happily yah!!!
Cheers!!!
Peter_Pan ( Date: 03-Sep-2013 08:48) Posted:
| COO Ong, marlin swimming happy happy leh! |
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Hit my TP again.
Target to close the gap still on track..
gd luck dyodd
ozone2002 ( Date: 11-Aug-2013 16:16) Posted:
Vard broke from its downtrend and had a reversal on 30 Jul
recovering from low 77c to a high of 83c on that day
Vard likely to close the gap of 99.5c, time being support is @ 83c
cut loss point 80c .. depending on your loss tolerance level
Gd luck DYODD |
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