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thnks
think it will be good news the chairman YC LU is to make announcement
Local terminology for diarrhoea. 
topdog22 ( Date: 17-Feb-2011 09:54) Posted:
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LS???
Japan 's MHLW has recently sent out released letters of approval for the month of Feb.
Not sure if Biosensors is one of the recipients.
Any reason...info???
bishan22 ( Date: 17-Feb-2011 09:26) Posted:
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Prepare for LS.
rogeryap ( Date: 17-Feb-2011 09:24) Posted:
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dun think is gd news...
TRADING HALT!!!
From my understanding, there have been some mgmt's conferences, where they alluded to strategic partnerships to enter the US mkt. This is because it is quite expensive to get approval in US, unlike Europe, where 100-200 patients is sufficient.
It is better for Biosensors to gain profitability quickly in europe and Asia, (China and Japan), where the mkt size is equally big, and that is what they are doing.
Jeff Jump has predicted that China will be a bigger mkt than US by 2015 !.
If thet can get a partner to enter the US mkt, with Biosensors contributing the technology, and its partner contributing the money, it will be a great strategy, just like what they did with Terumo for the Japan mkt. Bio-freedom is probably the preferred technology for them to enter the US mkt.
For info. Not a call to buy/sell.
the reasons are cost and whether it is sensible to conduct clinical trial for a product that needs at least 2-3 years to gain approval.....by that time biomatrix will be at the end of it's product life.
gbleng ( Date: 14-Feb-2011 10:32) Posted:
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read in CNA tat if 1.03 dun hold, next level 0.96...dunno shd i average down now or not...any gurus can shed some light here? tks.
Can anyone enlighten me as to why BIG is not trying to gain approval for their biomatrix in USA?????
While Biosensors biodegradable polymer technology is no longer unique, in the sense that other companies are also doing clinical trials on it, IT IS the only one that is CE Mark approved at the moment - That is it is the ONLY ONE available for sale !
2ndly, it has 3 yrs of data on 1700 patients, with significant benefits for complex patients and STEMI patients (I think STEMI means heart attack - correct me if i am wrong).
Even with new CE mark entrants, are physicians going to use these new DES, without enough data and enough length of time for their patients ? Would you use these new DES yourself, in case you need it ?
In the last audio conference (Q32011), Jeff Jump mentioned again that there are only 2 companies in the world right now, whose DES sales are gaining share, and Biosensors is one of them. (The other is Abbot).
Poor J & J. From the pioneer that it was, with the world's first DES, it has not done anything in the last 5 yrs to regain its mkt share. What now, with its suspension of the Nevo's clinical trial, which was supposed to be the next biodegradable DES after Biosensors.
Not a call to buy/sell/hold.
Since it is widely accepted that no single investment approach is right or wrong in itself,
I should think, overall, that the sensible approach of " all is betting" is the best approach.
With such an approach, at least one need not regret at the end of the day, that all is still betting...
Dear Investor you have written an excellent treatise on investment styles and decisions.
For my own personal style: I always try to identify good companies in good markets and buy an initial stake. If the price declines and the stock & market fundamentals are basically the same, I add to the position and average down my cost per share. Sometimes I average up the cost per share if counter continues to rise. I trade US counters too. For strategy example: bought my first thousand shares of GE at $25, since then I have added more at 19, 16, 15, and 14 to accumulate over 10,000 shares, now at US $21.33, I have averaged down my price and am in profits. I am a long term investor in BIG with a substantial position and have bought and sold over the years. Hi buy - $1.01. Hi sell - $1.37. Average price $0.60. I also accumulate: Mapletree, Ascendas, Cache, SPH, DBS, OCBC to name a few.
BIG technology is not as unique as before with other entrants using biodegradable coatings or no coating BUT is still STATE OF THE ART. Limus based drug gives excellent clinical results by retarding cell growth instead of killing cells like taxus based drug. Biodegradable stent still needs many years of clinical trials to determine if outcome better than metal DES. Current metal stent continues to provide support scaffold to keep vein open long after biodegradable is gone. I personally feel BIG especially with Hony & Fidelity, will go to at least $1.50 within 12 months. That seems a good return to me!
How many times do you have to jump in & out to realize profit of 130%-150% (.80 - .90) in 24-36 months and how much additional risk does the extra trading add? In my younger days I jumped in and out but find I make more money with less stress doing my homework.
Like wine, sometimes you have to let counter age and breathe to fully develop.
P.S. Now BIG withdrawn from US, substantial
In any forum, there will always be different views, and it is important to recognise where the view is coming from. Is it a 'fundamental view ', ie based on intrinsic value of the stock, or is it a 'technical view'., where the trend of the movement comes in.
There is no right or wrong in having a different view - it is a question of time-frame - technically, in the short term, the view might be bearish, while the fundamental view is most probably long term in nature, relying on the value of the stock to eventually move the stock price up or down, as the case may be. (ie undervalued or overvalued).
Sometimes, both views coincide, as in the previous weeks before the current mkt correction, and diverge as the case is right now.
How then, should we measure the intrinsic value of Biosensors ?. Most analyst rely on PE Ratio, PEG (PE ratio divided by growth rate - less than 1 is good), P/B (price to book), increase in revenue, increase in mkt share, gearing, , comparators (comparing to closest competitor), etc.
Biosensors fully diluted eps (earnings per share) for Q32011 is US 1.18 cents, (or Sing 1.51, Ex rate of 1.28), or Sing 6.04 cents on an annualised basis, giving it a PE ratio of 17.55 times. (Using current share price of 1.06) Is this good ? Compared to what ? Questions and answers, that we have to analyse ourselves.
If we use Nomura's report dated 10th Nov 2010, Biosensors forecast eps for end mar 2011 is US 4.6 cents (Sing 5.888 cents), and eps of US 6.5 cents for end mar 2012 (Sing 8.32 cents), giving a forecast PE ratio of 18 times for 2011 and PE ratio of 12.7 times for 2012. Again, it this good or bad ? Compared with what ? You can do a similar comparison, using OCBC and DBS Vickers reports.
Again, Nomura forecast a growth of 43.5 % going from 2011 to 2012, giving a PEG of 0.413 (taking PE 18 divide by 43.5), which is much less than 1, interpreting it as good.
What about P/B. Biosensors has a book value of US 17.43 cents (Sing 22.3 cents), of which cash is US$81m, and debts of US $32m (approx). Therefore P/B is 4.75 times. (Not exactly a good number). But if you look at the balance sheet, it has a book value of US $108m for its 50 % owned JWMS, and we know that Microport is trading at a mkt valuation of approx 1.2 Billion Sing today, meaning that 50 % owned JWMS should be worth approx Sing$ 600m, meaning that its P/B will be much better.
What about revenue ? - It is growing, DES Sales (the most important part) grow by 26 % Q-on-Q. ANd it is growing mkt share. New mkts like Japan and China will be added - It is a question of WHEN rather than IF.
What about its technology ? It is better than others and will it maintained its edge ? Does it have new products coming out ? We have to find answers to these questions.
The company also has cash of US$81m, with debt of US$32m, giving net cash of US$49m and more importantly, it is expected to continue positive cash flow going forward.
So, is Nomura's forecast accurate ? - Does it gel with what we see in the figures released by the company ? How about OCBC, DBS reports ?
As investors, we have to put on our own thinking cap, and decide for ourselves, so that we have the courage of our conviction, when we buy or sell.
Also, are we over leverage, when we buy/sell ? This will affect us, when the stock price is falling (for those who are on margin and are on the long side), and when the stock price goes up (It will affect those who short and who are also on margin).
Having said all these, a stock with good fundamentals may be on a short term downtrend (like currently) - Is it a good buying apportunity ? or is it going to come down some more ? Please let me know if you know.
Again, above are my own personal opinion, and I may not be correct.
Not a call to buy/sell/short or Hold.
On Friday, Biosensors re-test the support at $1.03 and closed at $1.06 with HIGH volume of 14.31 million shares traded.
A black candle stick with long lower shadow affirms that investors are willing to buy as prices approaches $1.03 support.
RSI & MACD are bearish as RSI falls steeply.
Important Resistance of Biosensors: $1.08
Immediate Support of Biosensors: $1.03
Currently prices are well below the 20/50/100/200 days MA.
Biosensors has broken its..................READ MORE
Hope HSI rebound is a sign the foreign funds are done selling. Hope some sanity will return next week. TGIF! Next week will be a better week, LNY not over yet!
Don't be mean spirited.... it's just not nice..
abkxpres ( Date: 11-Feb-2011 14:09) Posted:
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Foreign funds have exited, not only BIG, but most counters as they trim their holdings. Looks like they are done....... short some more if you like.... good on you if you've made money, but don't pour scorn on those who lost.
abkxpres ( Date: 11-Feb-2011 14:36) Posted:
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