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STI to cross 3000 boosted by long-term investors

Richard Koo: " Honeymoon For Abenomics Is Over"

As we noted just two weeks ago - before the hope-and-change-driven exuberance in Japanese equities came crashing down - those who believe in Abenomics are suffering from amnesia and Nomura's Richard Koo clarifies just who is responsible for the exuberance and why things are about to shift dramatically. Reasons cited for the equity selloff include Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s remarks about ending QE and a weaker than expected (preliminary) Chinese PMI reading, but, simply put, Koo notes, more fundamental factor was also involved: stocks had risen far above the level justified by improvements in the real economy. It was overseas investors (particularly US hedge funds) that responded to Abe's comments late last year by closing out their positions in the euro (having been unable to profit from the Euro's collapse) and redeploying those funds in Japan, where they drove the yen lower and pushed stocks higher. Koo suspects that only a handful of the overseas investors who led this shift from the euro into the yen understood there was no reason why quantitative easing should work when private demand for funds was negligible... The recent upheaval in the JGB market signals an end to the virtuous cycle that pushed stock prices steadily higher.

 

Profit taking? Cos everyone thinks that monday all will cheong n bb loves to play the opposite. Just guessing, no foundation at all.

 

Why will BB offload on Monday?

 

Have a great Sunday, Monday trading BB will offload

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 09-Jun-2013 09:49) Posted: As long as we are in stock market, Dow still is the center of our play. But one must learn how to sleep well whether Dow is red or green...Sis, is a kong fu...once you learn it...you can enjoy your life anywhere you go...Cheers!!!Have a great Sunday!!! halleluyah      ( Date: 09-Jun-2013 08:12) Posted: Yes bro u r right. So try to aim zhun zhun/wth confidence one then do day trading if possible....profit lessser but can hv a nice sleep n dun bother whether tonite Dow will b green or red. Fr z past wks am doing tt.

 

As long as we are in stock market, Dow still is the center of our play. But one must learn how to sleep well whether Dow is red or green...Sis, is a kong fu...once you learn it...you can enjoy your life anywhere you go...Cheers!!!Have a great Sunday!!!

halleluyah      ( Date: 09-Jun-2013 08:12) Posted: Yes bro u r right. So try to aim zhun zhun/wth confidence one then do day trading if possible....profit lessser but can hv a nice sleep n dun bother whether tonite Dow will b green or red. Fr z past wks am doing tt. kelvinLim123      ( Date: 09-Jun-2013 02:26) Posted: Unless u vested in index stock, even in the midst of bear, there are trading oppportunity. some counter will be in play. But i think nikkei will still be down trend and so is HK , and for sure sti will follow to lau sai. but i think stock like kreuz, swiber , ezion, CNA and dukang will be in play, stay tuned .

 

Yes bro u r right. So try to aim zhun zhun/wth confidence one then do day trading if possible....profit lessser but can hv a nice sleep n dun bother whether tonite Dow will b green or red. Fr z past wks am doing tt.

kelvinLim123      ( Date: 09-Jun-2013 02:26) Posted: Unless u vested in index stock, even in the midst of bear, there are trading oppportunity. some counter will be in play. But i think nikkei will still be down trend and so is HK , and for sure sti will follow to lau sai. but i think stock like kreuz, swiber , ezion, CNA and dukang will be in play, stay tuned .

 

No bull trap.   Bull run not over yet.   I sincerely believe this is just a correction. 

 

Unless u vested in index stock, even in the midst of bear, there are trading oppportunity. some counter will be in play.

But i think nikkei will still be down trend and so is HK , and for sure sti will follow to lau sai.

but i think stock like kreuz, swiber , ezion, CNA and dukang will be in play,

stay tuned .

 

Hope we are not at the bull trap.

 

Where Are We Now?

It used to be called the " New Paradigm" , it is now the " New Normal" - aside from that everything else is still the same, Ben Bernanke's aspirations to overturn math, economics and the business cycle notwithstanding. The only question is where on the red valuation line is the global market currently located, and how much longer can the central bankers reject the inevitable arrival of the first denial, then fear , then all other increasingly more unpleasant phases.

 

The Week That Was: June 3rd - 7th 2013

Succinctly summarizing the positive and negative news, data, and market events of the week...

Positives

1. U.S. trade deficit comes in slightly better than expected, still hits $40.3bn
2. May non-mfg ISM comes in at expectations (as orders slow and inventory builds)
3. June’s Beige Book is out, and it didn’t say growth is outright slowing, so that’s good
4. Initial weekly jobless claims 346k, almost exactly in-line with expectations
5. Thursday’s 3:30 ramp was epic, RC LLC has your back – just BTFD
6. Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations

 

Negatives

1. The problem with Japan’s " Plan B"
2. IG credit spreads widening
3. Abe’s attempts at defeating the  " inflation monster" underwhelm
4. Hindenburg Omen beginning to confirm
5. The Tuesday steak is over
6. Is there a collateral shortage starting? Overnight repo suggests the possibility
7. Gasp! Dow drops below 15,000
8. Big miss in May for ADP, 135k vs 165k consensus
9. As a reminder, equities are completely diverged  from credit & macro indicators
10. Nikkei enters bear market, sees 20% corections from its highs
11. The USD/JPY has crashed
12. The Real unemployment rate  is 11.3%

 

 

Louis,

Can't read Chinese... can translate?

 

...glad to know that the huat kueh you bought... ang mo also cannot resist...where you bought it....

    ....if it work, continue.... count on you lor.... 

 

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 08-Jun-2013 09:00) Posted: Haha!! The ang mohs ate my huat kueh last night!! guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-Jun-2013 08:54) Posted: ... u so traditional .... hope it work.... huat arh....

 

■ 美 元 弱 勢 令 日 圓 再 度 轉 強 。
【 本 報 綜 合 報 道 】 美 國 聯 儲 局 退 市 疑 慮 揮 之 不 去 ， 美 元 走 勢 反 覆 偏 軟 ， 美 滙 指 數 周 四 時 幾 乎 跌 穿 81關 ， 低 見 81.077， 但 昨 日 勞 工 部 公 佈 亮 麗 數 據 後 ， 美 元 略 為 轉 強 。 美 元 波 動 令 日 圓 及 歐 元 亦 同 時 受 累 ， 有 日 本 官 員 再 次 就 貨 幣 政 策 定 調 ， 表 示 無 意 干 預 滙 市 ， 美 元 兌 日 圓 繼 周 四 跌 至 95.88後 ， 昨 進 一 步 低 見 95.29， 其 後 回 升 至 97水 平 。


至 於 每 百 日 圓 兌 港 元 亦 連 續 第 三 日 攀 升 ， 周 四 尾 市 升 穿 8算 後 ， 昨 日 最 高 曾 升 至 8.1351港 元 ， 其 後 走 勢 反 覆 ； 對 上 一 次 見 8算 ， 已 是 4月 初 。


日 本 財 務 大 臣 麻 生 太 郎 昨 表 示 ， 關 注 隔 夜 滙 市 的 劇 烈 波 動 ， 但 不 會 進 一 步 評 論 滙 率 的 走 勢 ； 他 又 認 為 央 行 目 前 不 需 要 干 預 滙 市 。 經 濟 財 政 大 臣 甘 利 明 亦 指 ， 近 期 滙 市 及 股 市 的 波 動 是 由 外 部 因 素 影 響 ， 證 明 國 內 經 濟 正 穩 步 復 蘇 ， 當 局 將 會 訂 定 進 一 步 的 經 濟 增 長 策 略 。


歐 元 昨 日 亦 持 續 高 見 1.32美 元 ， 歐 央 行 行 長 德 拉 吉 周 四 議 息 後 表 示 現 階 段 暫 無 意 再 出 手 ， 刺 激 歐 元 即 日 衝 上 1.3307美 元 的 逾 三 個 月 高 位 ， 昨 日 亦 高 見 1.3273美 元 。


圓 滙 波 動 勢 必 累 及 日 股 走 勢 同 告 反 覆 ， 日 經 指 數 昨 一 度 急 跌 355點 ， 至 12548點 ， 較 5月 創 出 的 五 年 半 高 位 累 跌 逾 兩 成 ， 技 術 上 進 入 熊 市 。 不 過 ， 日 經 指 數 尾 市 再 度 急 彈 ， 一 度 曾 倒 升 202點 ， 最 終 收 市 跌 幅 縮 窄 至 僅 26點 。

索 羅 斯 沽 Yen買 日 股
市 場 人 士 指 ， 日 股 再 現 V形 反 彈 ， 是 受 日 本 退 休 基 金 加 碼 及 索 羅 斯 再 度 投 資 日 股 的 消 息 支 持 ， 估 計 日 股 短 期 內 有 望 喘 穩 。 其 中 全 球 規 模 最 大 退 休 基 金 日 本 政 府 退 休 金 基 金 （ GPIF） 昨 日 收 市 後 ， 宣 佈 中 期 營 運 計 劃 ， 當 中 包 括 加 碼 投 資 日 股 。


GPIF投 資 比 例 變 動 包 括 投 資 於 日 本 國 債 比 重 由 67%降 至 60%， 投 資 日 股 比 例 則 由 11%升 至 12%； 海 外 債 券 及 股 市 比 例 則 由 8%及 9%， 調 高 至 11%及 12%。


另 一 方 面 ， 有 報 道 指 對 國 際 大 炒 家 索 羅 斯 旗 下 基 金 管 理 公 司 已 再 度 入 市 買 日 股 。 該 公 司 上 月 份 一 度 表 示 會 全 面 退 出 日 本 股 市 ， 但 昨 日 卻 表 示 本 周 已 重 返 日 股 ， 並 同 時 沽 空 日 圓 （ Yen） 。 報 道 指 ， 該 公 司 除 投 資 藍 籌 股 外 ， 亦 會 向 有 增 長 潛 力 的 中 型 企 業 股 埋 手 。

 

Major markets will rebound on monday. The economy is definitely on a solid footing. Many sidelined investors will rush in else they missed buying cheap again.

 

Urh! Full load lia, waiting to move...发 啊 !

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 08-Jun-2013 08:57) Posted: You got enjoy your ice cold Chang beer on your train ride last night boh? ongahhuat888      ( Date: 07-Jun-2013 09:03) Posted: Oh In this case long queue i must go to supermarket before you n gorgeous!

 

It seems is working ler!!!! Hahaha!!!! Eat huat arh!!!

GorgeousOng      ( Date: 08-Jun-2013 09:33) Posted: Pls buy more huat kueh for them to eat....it se Peter_Pan      ( Date: 08-Jun-2013 09:00) Posted: Haha!! The ang mohs ate my huat kueh last night!

 

Pls buy more huat kueh for them to eat....it se

Peter_Pan      ( Date: 08-Jun-2013 09:00) Posted: Haha!! The ang mohs ate my huat kueh last night!! guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-Jun-2013 08:54) Posted: ... u so traditional .... hope it work.... huat arh....

 

The resting bulls have awaken.

risktaker      ( Date: 06-Jun-2013 15:19) Posted: Seems like u have no idea who is selling ..... n whos been buying when market made new high.....valuation may not look expensive but its not cheap.....why should we sell and buy back?.... Peter_Pan      ( Date: 06-Jun-2013 13:06) Posted: STI should recover from around 3200 and back to around 3350.

 

Haha!! The ang mohs ate my huat kueh last night!!

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 07-Jun-2013 08:54) Posted: ... u so traditional .... hope it work.... huat arh.... Peter_Pan      ( Date: 07-Jun-2013 08:43) Posted: Bought some huat kueh this morning!