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scanner ( Date: 20-Sep-2010 23:53) Posted:
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Shipping is dynamic and there are plenty of forces pulling both ways. But this week, the contradictions seem to have come to the fore. As container shipping enters an early winter lull, some major Asia-Europe liners are planning capacity cuts but others are planning to deploy super post-panamaxes in December. If liner discipline cracks, rates are only going to go lower but at the moment we are giving the carriers the benefit of the doubt. In the tanker sector, China’s future oil imports from Ghana promise to expand tonne miles but the ESPO pipeline threatens the reverse. And while bulk rates dropped last week, there has been a sharp recovery in property sales in the major cities of China. This can only mean that stronger steel production and iron ore imports lie ahead. We are OVERWEIGHT on containers but NEUTRAL on dry bulk and UNDERWEIGHT on tanker shipping. Our Outperform recommendations include Pacific Basin (TP: HK$7.35), Precious Shipping (TP: THB20), NOL (TP: S$2.25), and BLTA (TP: Rp680).
Vested.
risktaker ( Date: 22-Sep-2010 14:36) Posted:
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risktaker ( Date: 22-Sep-2010 14:36) Posted:
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ARE YOU READY FOR THE RIDE !
ITS TIME FOR NOL
Coming Soon!
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For those who is not aware, BDI do not affect Container Freight Rates. For NOL case, it is the Drewry Pacific Rate Index that will affect NOL earnings.
I would like to advise those who intended to invest or already invested in NOL/shipping line to do more read up.
My 2 cents worth of input.
3.1m * $2.00 = 6.2 m
alexchia01 ( Date: 20-Sep-2010 17:12) Posted:
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Temasek reduced their holdings. see announcement
http://info.sgx.com/webcoranncatth.nsf/VwAttachments/Att_880F0E6F82D5E230482577A400092333/$file/Temasek_Notice_17Sep10.pdf?openelement
Sold Half my NOL today when price hit $1.98.
Better take some profit off the table because falling to $1.98 is not a Good Sign.
If it continue to falls, I would sell all my NOL.
Just my personal opinion. Don't take it too seriously.
Good luck.
alexchia01 ( Date: 18-Sep-2010 00:55) Posted:
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Hi snooty,
What I have heard are really just rumours and I cant elaborate on it cause they are still rumours afterall. Factually there are many favorable reports from analyst regarding NOL, I too believe their synergy with APL (which they paid a hell of a premium for 'dont know if this had anything to do with the previous poor performances') will eventually to pay off. The mgmt has been building their war chest lately plus their ability to reverse 6 qtrs of consecutive losses and posting a profit is also good news to me.
So far only victorf is the only one here with the crystal ball and he too calls 'Buy on dip' as at 15 Sep
snooty ( Date: 20-Sep-2010 14:51) Posted:
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| Business Times - 20 Sep 2010
Baltic falls further despite stronger outlook
Most shipbrokers expect index to rise in last three months of the year: poll
(LONDON) The Baltic Exchange's main sea freight index continued to fall on Friday although the outlook for the end of the year was bullish, according to a poll on Friday.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which gauges the cost of shipping commodities including iron ore, cement, grain, coal and fertiliser, fell 2.23 per cent on Friday to 2,676 points, completing a week of continuous losses over which it fell 11.8 per cent.
It also means that since the BDI failed to break through 3,000 points at the beginning of the month, it has shed over 10 per cent in value.
'Newly ordered vessels are likely to see a prolonged period of strong supply growth that will manifest itself in a weak market balance and lower freight rates,' Arctic Securities said in a research note last week. It added that orderbooks still stood at only 54.4 per cent of the current fleet.
Despite this bearish sentiment, the mid-term freight outlook pointed towards slightly higher rates.
'We have made upward adjustments to our rate forecasts for the remainder of 2010, primarily affecting our rate expectations for Panamax, Supramax and Handysize,' Arctic Securities said.
A Reuters report on Friday showed that the median of a poll of shipbrokers and analysts for the BDI would average 3,011 points from October to the end of the year, up 12.5 per cent from Friday's close.
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swisssaints ( Date: 20-Sep-2010 11:41) Posted:
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