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Depsite the 'bullishness' or 'bearishness' of the other factors, macro or micro, the single most important driving force in the near term for SPC pricing (and other counters) is MARKET SENTIMENT.
Don't be surprise that we see green on SPC. Mkt is full of surprises. They also have to give face to Mr Lee's report that Singpoare economy is robust. Anyway, let nature takes it course. To be honest I am a little shaken now by the jittery US prime mortage woes. Hope the does settle soon. However, some doom sayer seeing this as a tip of the ice berge. Guys, I might alight this bus soon, sorry!
wonderful Dow goes south, lets see if we can get SPC to head south for accumulation!!
DOWN! DOWN! DOWN!
CKS,
The data is not that important at this stage. Margin has improved a bit but is still weak.
The more important thing is to think about the credit problem and its impact in the short term. I think I am becoming a nag and it seems to me only shplayer is taking a serious view of my pessimistic outlook.
Just ignore Kilroy if you do not agree with him. He is a TA while we works on fundamental. Fundamentals dictates the trend for SPC in most cases.
Finally I will be away for a week or 2 and would not be posting here.
CKS,
Of course, other issues need to be factored in.
Brought up issue of crude prices cos it has slid from about USD78 to USD72 in 1 week.....which is reminiscent of Sep 06.
Hi Shplayer, agree with your caution about sudden crude price drop, although we should factor what NewGuy has also pointed out.. and jkbk007, do you have data (particularly cracks) from the Dubai or Asian/Singapore/Australia as this would have a more direct bearing on SPC margins and we can have a more accurate picture.. .
Pls move foward...thanks
Within myself, I do wish for the stock price be to lowered to my buy price. This is similiar to the previous high in MAY 2006 when SPC went up to 6SGD and thereafter came to a low of slightly above 4SGD in early 2007. Boy was I happy knowing I had a chance to buy this stock. I did and profit from it as well. There and then I was a quiet forumer in SJ then. These day I am more vocal with my expression. Is that wrong with that?
If people can 'shout' for the price to go up why not down?
This is a zero sum game. a dog eat dog game. Do I care if you lose or win? NO. I have my own financial reasons to be in the stock market but to say that I am trying to frighten people, thats ridiculous. Better be frighten of the big boys !
None the less, you play yours I play I mine. No need to bounce any more quote or reply. I have nothing to do with you initially and let it remain this way. I am not going to be distracted by you so jus move forward~ 
WE SHOULD SEE RED TOMORROW! What a way to celebrate National Day. I might consider pulling out my funds from SPC if this nasty woes in US continues! I am trying not to fall in love with SPC, but to see the bigger picture. Let's see how tomorrow! Wednesday SPC surge without VOLUME, which is not a real good sign. Finger crossed ok, guys let's pray!
Just want to remind forumers to keep an eye on crude prices. Sudden and sizeable drops can be detrimental to SPC's performance.
Recall Sep 06 when crude prices fell from a peak of about USD 78 to about USD 50+ per bbl in a short space of time. When SPC reported its 3Q06 results, they had to make provision of about $71 mil for diminution of inventory.
Not bein a doomsayer......but just a word of caution that there may be some downside surprises if crude prices drops too drastically.
I agree with CKS,
I judge according to the earning per share for SPC ..The earning now for the 1H of 2007 had already surpass that of whole of 2006 .. Even with lower RM or same as last year for 3Q and 4Q, the profit of 2007 had already exceed my expectation . With the current new exploring in China and investment in Austrailia .. This baby still have plently of room to head north .
But I dun wish the oil price to rise too high either , bcos oil rise ,other counter will suffer ...Already cash lock at other counter during the selldown ...
CKS,
After seeing the lastest oil report, I could not tell clearly on how prices would trend around its current price. Hurricane season has so far been way below average for the Atlantic and US domestic demand for gasoline is going down and is below last year average. However refinery utlilisation are down. Thus I am not expecting significant changes to RM for the next few days and therefore I change my statement to neutral.
Another good news is that the US credit concern has eased somewhat so this may help SPC to trend upward. However I like to stress that I hold pessimistic view on the US credit problem. Among all the fundamental factor (oil inventoy, RM,...) it is actually one of the most important aspect that everyone should think about. In my opinion it has tremendous and immediate impact to SPC.
Unless I see SPC taking big moves, I do not expect SPC to trace back to $7 from now till October.
in my own opinions, both chinkiasu n kilroy are masters in their own ways. btw, i am not vested in spc bt if spc goes up or down, both of you guys can be quite happy in your own context la.. if px goes down, chinkiasu and kilroy can buy/short/do nothing if you guys want to.. if px goes up, chinkiasu or kilroy can again buy/short/do nothing if you guys want to too.. so win-win situation la.. cheers.
early morning birds oreadi in their slumberland, bt cannot leave out 1 big birdie rogue here, lol...
gah! the trouble with boys....leave them alone, and they end up squabbling! bad boys!
haha. :P
cks, relax....i don't believe kilroy's 'shouting for it to go down'. he's just saying what the charts say. which honestly, does indicate downtrend. the one green candlestick today shdn't be taken prematurely as a reversal, as that'd be overstepping one's techs. but may i note here that due to the general MACRO TREND, everything is exhibiting the same pattern lah. red, red, red, one solo green. any indicator you look at. almost all the same. from pennies, to blues.
so perhaps now of all times is the time to return to fundamentals: what a fund mgmr friend (whom i've been learning FA from) taught me: what do you think the company is worth, based on facts? ie, look at its NAV, look at its dividends, cash flow, PE ratio, profitability, forward ROE, net gearing. If all these figures tell you it's going well, then, that's your answer.
meanwhile, gotta ignore all the short term noise in the market. the FA strategy is to buy on dip. so the rest of it, really, is just white noise.
in any case, major forces at work now. Your support for SPC is the May and March 07 prices. so even factoring the dividend, that's 4.9 fair value. quite a steep fall. so please do be careful.
peace, all.
...if you continue arguing, elfie gonna smack you! :P
Ya ya...
Correct.. cool down cool down... relax... market already very hot.. haha.. pls refrain from bringing the heat to SJ.. Haha... relax guys..
Cheers,
Anything.
Cool down! Voices are good exchanges from different camps. The differences will put in place checks and will bring us back to reality when sometimes we are too overwhelm by the gains and losses. I am open to both camps, as far as I have a right frame of mind for what I believe in...SPC will gain back the losses in no time. It takes a while though. I do believe that both camps will not defy each other that SPC could reach $7.00 by next year, or 2009. PATIENCE is the game. Hope both camps can still continue to pour in your worth, which are invaluable, to me at least. Cheers to all my good friends here! We need to share INFORMATION!
I am not trying to frighten anyone. Probably wont have the ability to. Anyone with eyes can tell its bearish. If it reverse, good for you, else good for me <fullstop>. 
Price trend may not have changed yet... caution on this one.
"i think i hv hit.....kilroy", well said chinkaisu, hit the nail on the head??
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