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Huat Ahhh!!!!!
88888888
How to have inflation when the top 5 bank are holding 200 t in derivative ?
Just 1% default, is 2t. Now the total capitalisation of top 5 bank are just roughly 1 t.
They are technically bankrupt. If 1% default. and in a crises it is hard to believe 1 % default only, more than this my boy.
money will disappear into thin air. The remaining money is going to be very expensive.
deflation boy, deflaiton, time to deflate, we have been on inflating mode for as longggggg time, now time to deflateeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee. so long is the deflaiton that 1929 will be a walk in the park.
MasterNg9999 ( Date: 10-Jul-2011 23:13) Posted:
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hahaha
Singapore or the rest of the world print money = sg and the other country dollars become toilet paper like the banana one
US print money = sg and the other country dollars become toilet paper cos they suck thumb on us dollar deal
next 3 year will have inflation or even hyperinflation
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/10/business/global/chinese-inflation-jumps-again-as-pork-prices-soar.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/jul/07/food-prices-head-back-to-record-levels
No matter what, Singapore will have the means and will to see this through
Cheer
andreytan ( Date: 10-Jul-2011 02:46) Posted:
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This is instead what the obama administration is proposing
to consider as much as $1 trillion in unspecified new revenues as part of an overhaul of tax laws in exchange for an agreement that made substantial spending cuts, including in such social programs as Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security — programs that had been off the table.
WHY?.... cos it affect social class with the least power
Cheer
haha who print .... the congress? or the fed reserve .........
if its the congress, then its in a sorry state that they dont have the power (they have the constitution) to do it
There were several banking panics in the years preceding that led to a centralized banking system being developed in 1913. Basically, banks stopped loaning money to each other (sound familiar?) That’s why it was created. But I agree with you, it is unconstitutional. Congress has tried at various times over the years since then to have it disbanded. Which usually results in those congressmen losing their seats or assassination.
and ifs the fed reserve, do take console then it will land in our banks
Before the Banking Act of 1935, the government was able to borrow directly from its own central bank. Other countries followed that policy as well, including Canada, Australia, and New Zealand and they prospered as a result. After 1935, however, if the U.S. central bank wanted to buy government securities, it had to purchase them from private banks on the “open market.” Former Fed Chairman Marinner Eccles wrote in support of an act to remove that requirement that it was intended to keep politicians from spending too much. But all the law succeeded in doing was to give the bond-dealer banks a cut as middlemen.
Worse, it caused the Fed to lose control of where the money went. Rather than buying more bonds from the Treasury, the banks that got the cash could just sit on it or use it for their own purposes and that is apparently what is happening today.
In carrying out its QE2 purchases, the Fed had to follow standard operating procedure for “open market operations”: it took secret bids from the 20 “primary dealers” authorized to sell securities to the Fed and accepted the best offers. The problem was that 12 of these dealers – or over half -- are U.S.-based branches of foreign banks (including BNP Paribas, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, UBS and others) and they evidently won the bids.
The fact that foreign banks got the money was established in a June 12 post on Zero Hedge by Tyler Durden (a pseudonym), who compared two charts: the total cash holdings of foreign-related banks in the U.S., using weekly Federal Reserve data and the total reserve balances held at Federal Reserve banks,
from the Fed’s statement ending the week of June 1. The charts showed
that after November 3, 2010, when QE2 operations began, total bank
reserves increased by $610 billion. Foreign bank cash reserves
increased in lock step, by $630 billion -- or more than the entire QE2.
In a June 27 blog, John Mason, Professor of Finance at Penn State University and a former senior economist at the Federal Reserve, wrote:
In essence, it appears as if much of the monetary stimulus generated by the Federal Reserve System went into the Eurodollar market. This is all part of the “Carry Trade” as foreign branches of an American bank could borrow dollars from the “home” bank creating a Eurodollar deposit. . . .
Cash assets at the smaller [U.S.] banks remained relatively flat . . . . Thus, the reserves the Fed was pumping into the banking system were not going into the smaller banks. . . .
[B]usiness loans continue to “tank” at the smaller banking institutions. . . .
The real lending by commercial banks is not taking place in the United States. The lending is taking place off-shore, underwritten by the Federal Reserve System and this is doing little or nothing to help the American economy grow.
Tyler Durden concluded:
. . . [T]he only beneficiary of the reserves generated were US-based branches of foreign banks (which in turn turned around and funnelled the cash back to their domestic branches), a shocking finding which explains . . . why US banks have been unwilling and, far more importantly, unable to lend out these reserves . . . .
. . . [T]he data above proves beyond a reasonable doubt why there has been no excess lending by US banks to US borrowers: none of the cash ever even made it to US banks! . . . This also resolves the mystery of the broken money multiplier and why the velocity of money has imploded.
Well, not exactly. The fact that the QE2 money all wound up in foreign banks is a shocking finding, but it doesn’t seem to be the reason banks aren’t lending. There were already $1 trillion in excess reserves sitting idle in U.S. reserve accounts, not counting the $600 billion from QE2.
According to Scott Fullwiler, Associate Professor of Economics at Wartburg College, the money multiplier model is not just broken but is obsolete. Banks do not lend based on what they have in reserve. They can borrow reserves as needed after making loans. Whether banks will lend depends rather on (a) whether they have creditworthy borrowers, (b) whether they have sufficient capital to satisfy the capital requirement, and (c) the cost of funds – meaning the cost to the bank of borrowing to meet the reserve requirement, either from depositors or from other banks or from the Federal Reserve.
Cheer
Hulumas ( Date: 06-Jul-2011 09:26) Posted:
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China bubble is waiting to burst. It economy must have at least 11% growth so to maintain unemployment rate at current level. And by recent monetary and credit tightening it had to be happy with 5 to 6% growth. And yet inflation remain high. Now with high inflation and umemployment, social unrest will happen, just a matter of time. And with China growth at current rate, expert are warning that commodities are set to come down by some 20%.
And with Global industrial growth set to slow. Euro debt can only get worse, no growth means no money to pay, means default.
To declare bankrupt is faster than printing money. Deflation will be the theme of the coming crises. Even US debt clear, their economy is still sluggish. Housing and construction is getting worse.
Do you know , 9 out of 10 unemployed are from construction and service which are still in the hole?
And do you think Republican are there to help Obama to win election? They may paly on the debt ceiling and blame on Obamanomic.
So there is a chance that this debt ceiling can get woirse as to cause mkt chaos.
Heresay, they are settling this debt on Sunday, hope Monday can hear good news, which i do not think .Republican want to cut spending and with a slowdown in the economy, to cut spending is to drive the economy back to recession. And there will be no stimulus like QE3.
So what can we do? nothing
just cut when big drop come. to protect your current profit or capital. That is all we can do.
hope for the best and prepare for the worse, like they said.
Wrong thread just now
Hahaha..dont count on the Americans to push the South East Asia Countries economy up......... hopefully China dont cut into Europe Powers territory and make them nervous
Data at US is not ideal
#1 Right now, the U.S. government says that 14.1 million Americans are unemployed.
#2 There are fewer payroll jobs in the United States today than there were back in 2000 even though we have added 30 million people to the population since then.
#3 The number of Americans that are " not in the labor force" is at an all-time high.
#4 The United States has never had an employment downturn this deep and this prolonged since World War 2 ended.
#5 There are officially 6.3 million Americans that have been unemployed for more than 6 months. That number has risen by more than 3.5 million in just the past two years.
#6 It now takes the average unemployed worker in America about 40 weeks to find a new job
#7 There are now about 7.25 million fewer jobs in America than when the recession began back in 2007.
#8 Back in 2000, the employment to population ratio was over 64 percent. Today, it is sitting at just 58.2%.
#9 Only 66.8% of American men had a job last year. That was the lowest level that has ever been recorded in all of U.S. history.
#10 During this economic downturn, employee compensation in the United States has been the lowest that it has been relative to gross domestic product in over 50 years.
#11 The number of " low income jobs" in the U.S. has risen steadily over the past 30 years and they now account for 41 percent of all jobs in the United States.
#12 Half of all American workers now earn $505 or less per week.
#13 According to a report released in February from the National Employment Law Project, higher wage industries are accounting for 40 percent of the job losses in America but only 14 percent of the job growth. Lower wage industries are accounting for just 23 percent of the job losses but 49 percent of the job growth.
#14 The United States has lost a staggering 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.
#15 Between December 2000 and December 2010, 38 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Ohio were lost, 42 percent of the manufacturing jobs in North Carolina were lost and 48 percent of the manufacturing jobs in Michigan were lost.
#16 Back in 1970, 25 percent of all jobs in the United States were manufacturing jobs. Today, only 9 percent of the jobs in the United States are manufacturing jobs.
#17 Do you remember when the United States was the dominant manufacturer of automobiles and trucks on the globe? Well, in 2010 the U.S. ran a trade deficit in automobiles, trucks and parts of $110 billion.
#18 In 2010, South Korea exported 12 times as many automobiles, trucks and parts to us as we exported to them.
#19 The United States now spends more than 4 dollars on goods and services from China for every one dollar that China spends on goods and services from the United States.
#20 Since China entered the WTO in 2001, the U.S. trade deficit with China has grown by an average of 18% per year.
#21 The U.S. trade deficit with China in 2010 was 27 times larger than it was back in 1990.
#22 The United States has lost an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.
#23 In 2002, the United States had a trade deficit in " advanced technology products" of $16 billion with the rest of the world. In 2010, that number skyrocketed to $82 billion.
#24 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry was actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.
#25 Since 2001, over 42,000 manufacturing facilities in the United States have been closed.
#26 There were more manufacturing jobs in the United States in 1950 than there are today.
#27 Since the year 2000, we have lost approximately 10% of our middle class jobs. In the year 2000 there were about 72 million middle class jobs in the United States but today there are only about 65 million middle class jobs. Meanwhile, our population has gotten significantly larger.
#28 When you adjust wages for inflation, middle class workers in the United States make less money today than they did back in 1971.
#29 One recent survey found that 9 out of 10 U.S. workers do not expect their wages to keep up with soaring food prices and soaring gas prices over the next 12 months.
#30 Only the top 5 percent of U.S. households have earned enough additional income to match the rise in housing costs since 1975.
#31 One out of every six elderly Americans now lives below the federal poverty line.
#32 According to one recent study, approximately 21 percent of all children in the United States were living below the poverty line in 2010.
#33 Back in 1965, only one out of every 50 Americans was on Medicaid. Today, one out of every 6 Americans is on Medicaid.
#34 As 2007 began, there were 26 million Americans on food stamps. Today, there are more than 44 million Americans on food stamps, which is an all-time record.
#35 Today, one out of every four American children is on food stamps.
#36 59 percent of all Americans now receive money from the federal government in one form or another.
#37 The number of Americans that are going to food pantries and soup kitchens has increased by 46% since 2006.
#38 In the United States today, the richest one percent of all Americans have a greater net worth than the bottom 90 percent combined.
#39 According to Moody's Analytics, the wealthiest 5% of all households in the United States now account for approximately 37% of all consumer spending.
#40 The poorest 50% of all Americans collectively own just 2.5% of all the wealth in the United States.
And while most Americans are going thru all this mess, the obama administration think otherwise ,
U.S. federal agents actively placed over 30,000 fully-functional weapons into the hands of Mexican drug gangs, then halted all surveillance and tracking activities of where those weapons were going.
It is now an openly-admitted fact that this was pulled off by the BATFE (Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives, more commonly called “ATF”) under orders fromWashington. The program was called “Fast and Furious.”
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/15/us-usa-mexico-guns-idUSTRE75E49N20110615
Cheer
As market players enjoy on d last horay on China 5th increase in, interest rate hike.
Market can be volatile till end of July and just B4 Aug 2, there after, DOW trading can enjoy a little more stability.
See oso China monetary policies on thightening it fight against inflation and it interest rate, and on PIIG (EU), will hav some news on greece debt (news will neither be good or bad as greece must roll over their $340 billion debt.).
http://www.nst.com.my/nst/articles/Chinainflationacceleratesto6_4_/Article/
China June Inflation Rose 6.4%
China's inflation jumps to three-year high Straits Times - 09 Jul 11:22
China June inflation hits three-year high The Malaysian Insider - 09 Jul 11:23
China's inflation hits three-year high in June IANS India... - 09 Jul 15:36
teeth53 ( Date: 08-Jul-2011 22:41) Posted:
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Which is faster?
To print money or to declare bankruptcy?
Now, going forward,doo you think we will have inflation or deflation or stagflation?
Your take???
Some news from U.S. on debt, on Aug 2, 2011.
More »Obama's challenge: A debt deal and jobs, too
More »Partisan rhetoric may shrink deficit aspirations
President Barack Obama is appealed to Democrats and Republicans to " make some political sacrifices" and take advantage of an extraordinary opportunity to tackle the government's budget crisis.A reminder of what can happen when both Democrat and Republican can't make peace on Aug 2, 2011.
Meanwhile...Minnesota loses its pristine debt rating, for failed to make peace over their budget dispute to fill a $1.4 billion gap. (shortage of cash - $1.4B)
A lower debt rating hurts Minnesota because the increased risk means it will need to pay higher interest rates to investors.
The state shutdown all but essential govt services on July 1 after Governor Mark Dayton, a Democrat, and Republican lawmakers are fighting over whether to raise taxes or cut spending.
This caused the state parks to close down throughout the Independence Day weekend and triggered the layoffs of more than 20,000 state employees. Road construction projects are on hold and highway rest stops are shuttered.
Surprise! U.S. govt's $14 trillion intervention, Can make money....bailing out of the financial system.
http://finance.fortune.cnn.com/2011/07/08/surprise-the-big-bad-bailout-is-paying-off/?iid=HP_Highlight
We're counting these payments as an offset to the bailout's cost because they stem from the Fed's bailout activities. The Fed's increased profits come primarily from income on the $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities it bought in 2008–09 to stabilize credit markets (Quantitative Easing 1), and the $600 billion of Treasury securities it bought in 2010–11 (QE2) to hold down interest rates and raise asset values. Even though QE2 is usually considered " economic stimulus," we're treating it as part of the bailout because rising asset values have helped stabilize the financial system.
It is coming QE 2.5, another 300 billion, U.S. money machine is busy printing....not enuff, can print more..Ya.
teeth53 ( Date: 08-Jul-2011 21:28) Posted:
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http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/08/news/economy/debt_ceiling/index.htm?iid=HP_LN
With 25 days to go before debt ceiling D-Day
" There's going to be pain involved politically on all sides" with any debt deal, President Obama said after meeting Thursday with congressional leaders, including House Speaker John Boehner.
NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- President Obama says he's gunning for the big deal -- the comprehensive, balanced plan that would take a big knife to the country's debt.
That so-called " grand bargain" would be worth up to $4 trillion in debt reduction over the next decade.
But getting that grand bargain will be very hard and not just because time is short.
" This is a really heavy lift," said longtime political observer Norm Ornstein, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
So heavy, in fact, that Ornstein is not convinced lawmakers will get past their partisan furies before markets go nuts and jolt them into action if only to raise the debt ceiling.
sInce All the gOvernments fAiled the peOple
fIrst aUsterIty measUre shOUld be tO
cUt gOvernment sAlArIes by 50%
fOr fAiled perfOrmAnce ? ? ? ?
teeth53 ( Date: 05-Jul-2011 22:46) Posted:
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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-05/china-bank-outlook-may-be-souring-on-local-government-loans-moody-s-says.html
Chinese banks’ loans to local govts are about 3.5 trillion yuan ($540 billion) more than the national auditor’s estimate, and the industry’s credit outlook could decline, Moody’s Investors Service said.
“The Chinese audit agency could be understating banks’ exposure to local governments,” Yvonne Zhang, a Moody’s analyst in Beijing, said in the report today. The “apparent absence of a clear master plan to deal with this issue” is likely to exacerbate problems and lenders may be left to manage a portion of the souring loans on their own, it said.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/04/news/economy/debt_ceiling_debate/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
Debt ceiling FAQs: What you need to know
The $1 trillion in cuts would probably be spread out over the next decade or so, meaning roughly $100 billion less in federal spending each year, although the savings might be larger in later years.
Sawhill said the cuts are likely to be focused on non-security discretionary spending, a small section of the budget that includes funding for food inspectors, the FBI and education grants, among many other programs and services people associate with government.
" The public is going to be a lot more concerned when they see the details and not just the abstraction of less spending."
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/04/news/economy/economic_risks/index.htm?iid=Popular
U.S. policymakers are racing to reach an agreement before the debt ceiling is breached. But the biggest risks to the U.S. economy are mostly out of their hands. Greece
CNNMoney surveyed 27 economists and asked them to choose from a list of possible threats facing the economy. What scares them most? A sovereign debt default by a EU country such as Greece. More than half of those surveyed ranked it as one of their top two concerns, with 10 choosing it as their number one worry.
" A Europe debt default could cause financial crises as large as the 2008 one due to financial system interconnections," said Bill Watkins, executive director of the Center for Economic Research and Forecasting.
Another oil price shock, which most likely would come from further political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa, is their next biggest worry.
See the full survey results
Isabel Sawhill, an economist who studies fiscal issues at the Brookings Institution and worked in the Clinton administration.
http://money.cnn.com/2011/07/04/news/economy/debt_ceiling_debate/index.htm?iid=HP_Highlight
Deal or no deal? (teeth53 thot: Not when both party is putting up a good fight till Aug 2)
Huge spending cuts, and maybe some targeted tax hikes.
That's how the deal to raise the debt ceiling is shaping up. Details are thin, as negotiations have been carried out behind closed doors and involve only a few of Washington's heaviest hitters.
This much is known: Lawmakers must raise the nation's $14.3 trillion legal borrowing limit soon. The Treasury Department says that on Aug. 2 it will run out of money to pay the nation's bills in full and on time.
That's only a few weeks away. So what's it gonna take?
The group of lawmakers who participated in negotiations led by Vice President Joe Biden have already identified more than $1 trillion in budget cuts.
Republicans want far more.
http://sg.news.yahoo.com/p-warns-bank-plan-cause-greek-default-091623100.html
Monday: A leading credit ratings agency warned. Greece would be considered to be in default if banks rolled over their holdings in the country's debt as proposed French. S& P said in a statement that two proposals by an association of French banks " would likely amount to a default" under its criteria because both options offer " less value than the promise of the original securities."
S& P's position could wreak havoc on EU attempts to deal with the Greek debt crisis, especially if rivals Moody's and Fitch come to the same conclusion. A so-called " selective default" could trigger insurance claims on Greek bonds and cause another bout of turmoil in the financial markets.
" A default is exactly what the European politicians want to avoid," said Louise Cooper, markets analyst at BGC Partners. " I imagine there are a lot of phone calls being made between the European political elite and the bosses at S& P."
The French banks had said they were ready to help Greece by accepting a significant debt rollover as part of a second bailout for Greece. Germany's banks later said they were also considering helping out on similar terms as the French plan.
teeth53 ( Date: 27-Jun-2011 15:14) Posted:
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