THE ENERGY STOCKS I BOUGHT THURSDAY/FRIDAY - AND WHY
So what do we retail investors do now?
Gut wrenching volatility in the markets due to gut-less politicians has left investors dazed – do we still buy the dips or this 2008 all over again?
I was a buyer on Thursday and Friday of my favourite oil producers and energy services companies.  I see this steep market downturn as a crescendo of fear that had been building up in the markets over politics mostly – NOT as any kind of actual drastic economic downturn. 
Now, I didn't waste all my bullets as I may be able to buy them lower in the next month, i.e. there could be a reset of valuations (Lord, please let there be a reset so we can get on with making money again!) but the many investors with lots of cash around would welcome that.
And the reality is that in my specialized sector, junior oil and gas valuations were already hit so hard in June that many of the stocks that I follow barely moved, telling me the reset in this sector is almost complete.
I'll tell you more about these purchases in a minute.
But first, I see that the economic numbers – especially when you look globally – are not that bad.
Credit Suisse reports that global emerging markets  now account for 49% of global GDP – and with estimated trend growth of 9%, 7.5% and 4% in China, India and Brazil, those three economies alone would add 1.8 percentage points to global GDP if they grow at trend.
 
You don't read stuff like that in our financial pages.  Our financial media is very biased towards shrill negative US and European bad news.  (And
most news reporters have
never spent any time in business, doing real business – never forget that as you read the media.  They are unionized staff who have not been trained to think like entrepreneurs so they don't see solutions, only problems.  My degree is journalism
-).)
 
US GDP is still positive, and most forecasters are now just calling for reduced growth, not recession.  Of course, there could be another recession in the US, though I think investors will do better than workers as this will guarantee North American interest rates stay at zero for another 18 months.  The market loves cheap money as much or more than a strong economy, and this will fuel stock market participation.
 
I think it will also help fuel corporate growth, and here's why – now corporate debt is more attractive than sovereign debt.  So cheap corporate debt – already very cheap with 10 year + notes going out at 3% - will continue to allow whatever low cost growth consumer spending will support.
 
This mini-crash was mostly due to investors' uncertainty that political leadership and un-elected autocrats could contain the European debt problem. 
(Being a politician isn't easy as you are elected on your integrity (or your party leader's integrity) but your job is to be a professional compromiser.  Whether it's getting a business deal done or passing laws, you have to compromise with the other side to get a win-win.  But the people who elected you don't see you that way.  When was the last time you saw an election sign saying "
I'll compromise for you!" ).
I find it funny that the common man has reduced his credit and increased his savings over the last three years (especially in the US), but big banks have continued to lend weak states like Greece et al hundreds of millions or billions of dollars.  They remain vulnerable to collapse and as a result will likely have to reduce lending to their customers even more. 
A perfect example of this is The Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS), whose collapse in 2008 sent junior market darling but heavily indebted Oilexco (a $20 stock at the time) into bankruptcy.  Greece owes RBS just under US$1 billion.
This reduced bank lending in the coming year will reduce consumer spending, but it won't kill it.  I believe a good chunk of that is now priced into the market (worst case we're at 9x PE for the S& P 500, now is 11.7x).
To me, worst case is that austerity measures in the western world remain a drag on overall equities for several years - but emerging markets continue to be strong, which will keep the oil price at a level that will reward growth in both producers energy services companies.
The market just wants clarity.  Short term, it doesn't even care if it's the perfect solution.  It knows everybody has to take a haircut on this debt, so just tell us the number for each party and let's get back to business.  The
global economic backdrop is strong enough that I believe these political crises that spill into the stock market are buying opportunities - though I confess I'm a lot more selective than I was six months ago.
I see two possibilities out of this week's drama, and both are positive for investors who bought stock the last two days.  One is that the European debt problem here is so big and so immediate and so PUBLIC that some kind of concrete, credible action will be taken to resolve the issue.  That would create a positive shift in market sentiment, even if it meant significant short term economic pain.
But some kind of action must be taken now, and even if it's NOT completely credible, I see that action (Italian PM Berlusconi's promise of a balanced budget and tackling welfare and labour reform would count as this) being rewarded by the market.
This would mean the index charts will look like a bouncing ball from these levels, and you use these instances to buy stock in your favourite companies.
So let's talk about my favourite companies – what did I buy this week?
I bought two types of stocks.  One was energy services – these are the companies that do the drilling, the fracking, supply most of the hardware that producers need.  The global shift to shale oil and gas production and horizontal drilling is still in its infancy.  In North America it's really only become mainstream in the last 5-7 years. 
And the energy services sector is still catching up to producers' demand for their products and services. Calfrac (CFW-TSX) is one of Canada's largest fracking companies, (but was NOT a company I bought or own), and they announced their Q2 numbers this week and they beat The Street's consensus cash flow by 74%!  Canadian brokerage firm Raymond James says Calfrac is growing its capacity 48% this year – the demand is so strong for fracking by the energy producers. Their main growth was in the US, in the face of a very weak US economy.  That's very bullish for the sector. Service companies also have pricing power – sometimes by as much as 5% per quarter Raymond James said in a report earlier this year.
The technology innovation that is coming out of the energy services sector --
steadily -- is astounding.  There are companies that have technologies or tools that can get more oil and gas out of the ground or reduce time and costs, which increase profits and stock prices for producers.
These companies have huge sales backlogs now, and strong pricing power.  Even if oil goes to $50/barrel (which it's not, it's going higher folks), the demand for these innovative services would not decrease. 
The second type of stock I bought has yield.  Both producers and service companies pay dividends, and with all this negative economic chatter, I believe interest rates will stay near zero for another two years, insulating yield stocks.  Many dividend stocks dropped 10%-20% in intraday swings, and I was able to scoop up a juicy 10% yield! I missed another because I couldn't end my phone call at the time!  Even big companies like Pembina Pipelines (PPL-TSX) had a 20% swing Friday.
The market may not have bottomed yet. Interbank lending rates are spiking (the TED spread) and PE levels for the S& P 500 are still, at 11.7x, above what they are at market bottoms (8-9x).  Political indecision in Europe and the US could endure.
But this is not 2008.  And there are great companies growing quickly with HIGH profit margins that went on sale this week which I believe I will profit from handsomely in the coming quarters.
 
P.S.   In my newest video, I explain why the Global Shale Revolution has the new energy services sector booming… and why energy services stocks aren't actually dependent on the price of oil or gas to deliver huge profits for investors (unlike most oil & gas stocks). Click here to watch.  
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PDXhGV3g2kE-Keith
 
2nd UPDATE: Japan Launches Intervention to Push Down Yen
BOJ Steps Awaited
-- Japan intervenes in foreign exchange market to push down yen
-- Finance minister says action was needed to stop " one-sided" moves in market
-- Dealers estimate amount at Y500 billion
-- Dollar rises to above Y79.00
-- BOJ to cut short policy board meeting further easing measures expected
(Adds finance minister's quotes, analysts' reaction, updated foreign exchange levels in the 2nd-6th, 13th-14th paragraphs.)
By Takashi Mochizuki, Takashi Nakamichi and Andrew Monahan
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
TOKYO (Dow Jones)--Japan's government Thursday launched a foreign exchange intervention campaign to push down the yen, sending the currency lower but leaving traders uncertain about the longer-term impact.
The government plunged into the market at 0100 GMT via the Bank of Japan, causing the yen to spike lower against other key currencies. The dollar quickly jumping to Y78.20 from Y77.13 and the euro rose to Y111.80 from Y110.72.
To underscore its conviction, the government continued selling yen through the morning, pushing the dollar to Y79.15. At 0407 GMT the dollar was at Y78.95.
Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda said at a hastily called news conference the measure was meant to stop speculative, excessive yen moves.
" If this movement continued, it would have adverse effects on the stability of Japan's economy and financial conditions at a time when Japan is making various efforts to recover from the (March 11) disaster," Noda said.
Some market watchers predicted a long campaign. " What we've seen is a skirmish, in what could become a war of attrition," said Robert Rennie, chief currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney.
Despite recent talk of global cooperation, Noda said Japan acted alone.
Dealers said the buying appeared to total around
Y500 billion in the morning session.
Soon after Noda spoke, the Bank of Japan announced it was cutting short its two-day policy board meeting scheduled to conclude Friday, and would make an announcement later in the day.
The BOJ is expected to announce additional easing measures [JQE] , including an increase in its Y10 trillion asset purchase program.
Some think the central bank could add another Y5 trillion or Y10 trillion to the fund, which buys a wide range of assets in the open market.
The yen's recent strength has clouded the outlook for Japan's export-driven economy as it recovers from the March 11 earthquake and tsunami, drawing increasing complaints from big Japanese exporters.
But many traders questioned whether the intervention will turn the tide and push the dollar comfortably back above Y80, the level widely seen as the pain threshold for manufacturers.
" As long as concerns for downside risks in the U.S. economy and expectations for further Fed easing measures persist, it is hard to expect the dollar/yen pair to return to high enough levels to alleviate the negative pressure on exporters' earnings," said Junko Nishioka, chief economist at the Royal Bank of Scotland, in a report.
Japan last intervened just over four months ago after the dollar dropped to a post-World War II low of Y76.25 on March 17. The March 11 disaster put upward pressure on the yen by leading to speculation Japanese firms operating overseas would repatriate funds to meet reconstruction and other costs.
In March, the finance ministry sold Y692.5 billion, following a rare declaration of joint intervention by the Group of Seven economic powers.
The dollar rose as high as Y85.53 in early April, but has ceded ground since as concerns mounted over the U.S. economy and debt.
Despite Japan's own woes and massive indebtedness, the yen has emerged as a safe haven for investors increasingly worried about the U.S.
-By Takashi Mochizuki, Takashi Nakamichi, Andrew Monahan Dow Jones Newswires +81-3-6269-2782
takashi.mochizuki@dowjones.com
-Leslie Shaffer and Martin Vaughan contributed to this story
This article first appeared in HWM Jul 2011.
Perfect, Easy and Somewhat Incomplete.
With so much of our lives living on our computers, backing up regularly should be as essential a task as eating. After all, every hard drive will eventually fail at some time. Imagine having your mission critical work files wiped, a lifetime's worth of photographs erased, and your collection of favorite songs disappear – all because your hard drive died and you didn't back up your files.
Yet, most people don't do backups one reason is because it's a tedious process. Getting an external hard disk to back up to is easy enough, but without software to help you do it automatically, you have to remember to copy and paste your files on a regular basis, not to mention keep track of which files have been changed since your last update. And even when you do get software to help you out, configuring backup rules can be an exercise in confusion.
The Clickfree Wireless Backup Drive promises to solve your backup problems. It's an external hard disk, available in both 500GB and 1TB versions, that comes with backup software so it can backup your data automatically. The key feature is that it connects wirelessly, which means you can leave it plugged to a power source, unplugged from your PC, and it'll still backup your data over the air as long as they're both on the same network. Not only that, it can wirelessly backup multiple PCs, as long as it's been plugged into each machine prior.
The Clickfree comes in the shape of a little black box with rounded corners. It's simple but attractive enough the upper panel has a clear finish and adds a dash of sophistication. It would be completely unobtrusive but for the fact that the bottom panel emits a glow orange for when it isn't connected and blue for when it is.
When you first plug it in, the drive will install its backup software into your PC and start the initial backup of your data. Backup is incremental by design, after the initial seeding, it will only backup new files or files that have been changed. That means files which have been previously backed up, then deleted on the PC, remain on the Clickfree during subsequent backups so you can restore accidentally deleted files.
On the flipside, the Clickfree doesn't support versioning so backups aren't redundant. This means that if you edit a document, on the next backup, Clickfree will overwrite the previous version of your document with the latest one, and you won't be able to restore earlier versions of your document.
The Clickfree also doesn't let you select which files to backup and which not to. You can check which files have been backed-up through the software's browser, but you won't be able to change anything. The good thing about that is that the Clickfree makes backup easy you won't have to fuss and figure out anything. The bad thing is that you risk losing completeness for the sake of simplicity, as you have to work within Clickfree's backup rules rather than have it work for you.
The Clickfree's hardware and software implementation is flawless and easy, but it offers a very basic insurance plan. It makes backup automatic and painless, but sacrifices completeness for simplicity. We'd recommend it for basic users, but not users who need more customizable features, as having a simple backup done regularly is better than having none at all.
By Channel NewsAsia, Updated: 03/08/2011
PE: Presidential hopefuls call for dignified campaign
 
Dr Tony Tan (Photo: channelnewsasia.com, Hester Tan)
SINGAPORE: Potential candidates vying to contest the forthcoming Presidential Election have issued their statements following the announcement of the dates for Nomination and Polling Day.
Former deputy prime minister Tony Tan said given the present economic uncertainties, it is highly likely that the next President will be involved in decisions about the economic future of Singapore.
He said this may require the President to invoke his formal powers on whether to draw down past reserves.
Dr Tan said that was why he had resigned from jobs that he loved — to step forward and offer his candidacy.
He added that he looks forward to a vigorous exchange of views during the campaign, which should be carried out with decorum and in a manner befitting the Office at stake.
Dr Tan said he remains confident that Singaporeans are able to make an informed choice about who best can carry out the responsibilities of the President.
Separately, the former CEO of NTUC Income, Tan Kin Lian, said he looks forward to receiving the result of his application for the Certificate of Eligibility to contest the Presidential Election.
He expressed confidence that he has met the stipulated criteria.
Upon receipt of the Certificate of Eligibility, Mr Tan said he will finalise his nomination papers to contest the Presidential Election.
He called on donors, companies and civic organisations not to be wasteful when spending on political advertisements for their preferred candidate.
Another hopeful, business man Andrew Kuan, said he will submit his forms for the Certificate of Eligibility on Friday.
The other two Presidential hopefuls are former MP Tan Cheng Bock and former opposition member Tan Jee Say.
Meanwhile, observers said Singaporeans want a President who can articulate their concerns, but at the same time be able to work with the government.
They said this is a sign of changing times and reflects an electorate that is more demanding.
Dr Eugene Tan, assistant professor of Law at the Singapore Management University, said: " But I think that doesn’t take away from the basic criteria of someone who has the ability and the experience.
" Because I think in the end, to do the job of the Elected President, especially in the exercise of custodial powers, whether to draw down the past reserves of the country (or) to make key appointments such as the Chief Justice, you need someone who has the experience, the capability, but also the temperament."
— CNA/al