Insider Info/Tips   

Dow Outlook

This sell in May and go away is quite a silly thing.  Its not a sure thing some years it  went down and some years it went up.   I also sold some before May but all those I sold have gone up significantly.  Worse some short the market, including the US market - maybe that's why we don't see their posts now.

nqing87      ( Date: 01-May-2013 16:02) Posted: the more dow goes up, the higher chances of it dropping soon imho opinion lol.. wonder which asset will get liquidated next after gold and fund the dow rise.. once nth can be liquidated to push dow up, it will surely goes back down.. but may not need to wait till that for the fall, since we have US debt issue in may that may give a legitimate excuse for a correction.. see how the politicians & media play the news.. media is one of most important elements to fuel rise or fall in market sentiment.. hoping for a fall in may, then pick up stocks cheaply guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 01-May-2013 11:13) Posted: Dow Jones Industrial Average 14,839.80 21.05 (0.14%) ...with this closing at end April.... touching 15,000 in May should be very likely......?... ...this May may not be similar to the usual May (ie sell in May and go away...the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August)...

 

U.S. stocks rise for third week records set

_{Dow and S& P 500 finish week at all-time closing highs}

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — U.S. stocks rose Friday as Wall Street racked up a third week of record-setting gains while considering global monetary easing and as finance ministers started a two-day meeting.

The Dow added 35.87 points to 15,118.49, its highest close ever.

Also finishing at an all-time high, the S& P 500 index added 7.03 points to 1,633.70, with health care the best performing and energy the worst performing among its 10 sectors.

“My sense is that we will see some weakness in the very short term, but that weakness will set up the markets for the next push higher, eventually carrying the S& P 500 towards the 1,700 mark by July,” said Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates.

A steep decline in commodity prices slammed shares of energy and natural-resources companies, while the dollar rose to a four-and-a-half-year high against the Japanese yen .

Energy companies including Tesoro Corp. fell as oil prices dropped 35 cents to $96.04 a barrel.

The Nasdaq Composite index rose 27.41 points to 3,436.58, with the index drawing a lift a day after Nvidia Corp.  and Priceline.com Inc. reported quarterly profits that beat estimates.

The benchmark indexes all settled with weekly gains, with the Dow up 1%, the S& P 500 ahead 1.2% and the Nasdaq Composite rising 1.7% from last Friday’s close.

The rise has short sellers scrambling to cover bearish bets this week on high-profile stocks.

For every five stocks that fell nine gained on the New York Stock Exchange, where 619 million shares traded.

Composite volume approached 3 billion.

 

Expect 10% stock-market tumble: S& P analysts

The S& P’s 500 Index notched another record close on Tuesday, bringing the U.S. benchmark to a level more than 11% above its 200-day moving average, compared to a more typical 2.4% spread.

To the analysts at S& P Capital IQ, U.S. stocks look stretched.

The U.S. Investment Policy Committee at S& P Capital IQ is concerned that the S& P 500 has limited upside from here. The index has gained more than 20% since mid-November and now trades on the high side relative to measures such as its 200-day and 50-day moving average. Just 2 of 10 key S& P 500 sectors – industrials and health care – now trade at discounts to their 20-year median valuations. The most overvalued sectors: telecoms and utilities.

Based on this, S& P’s seers are predicting an 8% to 10% correction for the S& P 500. The committee envisions a scenario where the index rises to 1,650 or 1,660 from its current 1,633, a thin gain of less than 2% on the upper end of that range, before rolling over.

“We expect the topping formation, either a head-and-shoulders or double top, to develop over the coming weeks and months before the bulk of the decline materializes and accelerates,” the S& P committee members wrote in a research note late Tuesday.

But they point out that a correction won’t derail the bull market: S& P Capital IQ still pegs the S& P 500 at 1,670 in 12 months.

– Jonathan Burton

 

 

_{May 6, 2013, 11:56 a.m. EDT}

Sell in June for the market swoon? ....

(an outlook of S& P 500 base on Elliott wave count)

... I do not see the top as being in place just yet, and it may take several more weeks until this wave is completed.

... a Fibonacci 1:1 relationship between waves 1 and 5 would provide a top in the 1635 region. But before I call that as a top, I need to see how the structure and technicals develop over the next week. Of course, we can still see extensions take us up to the higher Fibonacci extension around 1672, which would be where the 5th wave would be equal to 1.382 times the size of wave 1...

  So, while I am looking for a larger degree pullback potentially starting later in May, or even as late as June, I still see the potential for all worldwide markets to see much higher levels...

 

What to watch: 5 red flags that may signal bull's end

  NEW YORK -- More than four years after it started and 140% in gains later, it's no longer news that there's a bull market underway on Wall Street. But history says bull markets rarely die of old-age alone.

What are some warning flags to look out for that will tip you off to a looming market decline?

James Stack, editor of  InvesTech Researchnewsletter, addressed that very question in his latest issue. While he says stocks have some things going in their favor for now — namely, improving investor and CEO confidence, economic indicators still pointing up and a continued recovery in housing — he ticks off " Top 5 Warning Flags to Watch."

1. Long-term bond yields.

If yields on 10- and 30-year Treasuries, already trading near record lows under the Federal Reserve's easy-money policy, fall further, it would " carry a deflationary message," he says.

2. U.S. dollar.

" If the dollar suddenly drops to the lows in 2008, (it would) put pressure on long-term interest rates."

3. Advance/decline line.

If the number of stocks rising starts to narrow but major indexes continue to rise, it could be a sign of coming weakness.

4. Cyclical stocks.

If stocks that benefit from a healthy economy, such as tech, industrial and transportation companies, start to falter, it's a sign investors see weakness ahead.

5. Selling pressure.

A " fail-safe" tool to spot a bear is if the number of stocks hitting new yearly lows starts to accelerate, Stack adds.

 

any1 got any news about the coming US debt ceiling issue? the media are totally muted about this & it seems like no one remember about it, just like december that time fiscal cliff last minute media brought it up & dow drop.. seems like in bullish environment, ppl only want to hear good news

 

Long way back with Dow at 13K++, my sifu told me that DOW would go above 15K and build a base there before going further north. From our Moon to Mars. Hahaha.   I am sure you all know who my sifu is.   March on and don't look back.   Cheers!

 

The Dow Jones Transportation Average reached an all-time high for a second consecutive day after lagging behind the major US benchmark indices in April, intensifying concern that the broader market gains would soon falter.

So-called Dow Theory holds that gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average must take place in tandem with Dow Transports.

A move higher for Dow Industrials can only be confirmed and taken higher with a similar rise in Dow Transports, its proponents argue.

This month transportation stocks have resumed their outperformance of the major US benchmarks, including the Dow Industrials, wiping away fears of an imminent decline in shares prices.

“Anyone that believes in Dow Theory has had the market’s recent bullishness confirmed by the recent move in transportation stocks,” said Kenny Polcari, director of floor operations O’Neil Securities.

For those worrying about the divergence in the Transports during the past few weeks, the recent rally has confirmed the broader markets shift higher, analysts at Bespoke Investment Group said. “While things remain very overbought in the short term right now, this is a positive sign for the longer term prospects of this market.”

 

 

Dow Has Its First Close Above 15,000 Points

Just two months after recovering the last of its losses from the financial crisis, the Dow Jones industrial average charged higher Tuesday, closing above 15,000 for the first time.

It was another milestone in the market’s epic ascent of 2013. Good economic reports, strong corporate earnings and fresh support from central banks have eased investors’ concerns about another economic slowdown. Many had been on the lookout for signs that a spring swoon would derail the rally, as happened in each of the past three years.

Instead, Wall Street has climbed almost 15 percent since Jan.  1.

“The thing that’s been driving stocks is rising confidence,” said James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management. “Economic growth, job creation and the housing market have been better than expected.”

News of stronger hiring over the past three months briefly propelled the Dow over 15,000 on Friday, but it ended the week below that mark.

Wall Street followed Japanese and European markets higher after they responded to good news about central bank stimulus and the German economy. In the U.S., the market got a lift from higher quarterly profits at satellite TV company DirecTV and watchmaker Fossil.

The Dow closed at 15,056.20, up 87.31 points, or 0.6 percent. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index added 8.46 points to  1,625.96, a gain of 0.5 percent. Both indexes reached all-time highs earlier this year, then kept climbing, largely driven by optimism that the U.S. economy will continue gaining strength.

“We don’t think people are giving enough credit to the strength of the economy,” said Ryan Detrick, a senior technical strategist at Schaeffer’s Investment Research. “We still like the market.”

The gains piled up with the growing realization among investors that the traditional threats to a rising market — higher interest rates, falling profits, a possible recession — are unlikely to appear anytime soon. What’s more, with interest rates near record lows, they see few other places to put their money.

In a round of interviews on Monday, investor Warren Buffett said the stock market looked “reasonably priced” even after its surge. But, Buffett added, people pay too much attention to markets reaching new highs. They ought to pay attention when markets hit new lows.

“That’s when stocks are getting cheaper,” Buffett said. “That’s when stocks are going on sale. But people do get more excited when they see new highs.”

Record-high profits have also encouraged investors who fretted that slumping sales would lead to shrinking earnings. More than 400 of the S& P 500 companies have turned in first-quarter results, and more than seven out of 10 have beaten Wall Street’s earnings expectations, according to S& P Capital IQ. Those analysts estimate that earnings increased 5 percent in the first quarter and will pick up their pace through the rest of the year.

...

For the Dow, it was the 17th straight Tuesday of increases. The only day of the week with a longer series of consecutive gains is Wednesday, which logged a streak of 24, Detrick said.

In other trading, the Nasdaq composite rose 3.66 points to 3,396.63, up 0.1 percent.

Japanese stocks surged, pushing the Nikkei above 14,000 for the first time in nearly five years. The Nikkei has jumped 36 percent this year after the Bank of Japan announced a new aggressive monetary policy to get the country out of its two-decade stagnation.

In Europe, Germany’s main DAX index touched a record of 8,195, bouyed by surprisingly strong industrial orders.

Detrick said he was particularly encouraged by the resurgence in smaller stocks, which suggested a broad recovery beyond larger companies. The Russell 2000 index of small companies has gained 14 percent this year.

 

Dow highest at 15,009.59 (above 15,000 for the first time), and close at 14,973.96  _+142.38 due to a far better-than-expected number on job creation last month.

The first closed above the 14,000 level was in July of 2007.

…" we remain fully invested in U.S. stocks," said David Kotok, chief investment officer at Cumberland Advisors, who favors growth stocks over defensive shares. " We think the U.S. stock market is headed higher." …

 

DOW drop 100 points amid the poorer ISM and ADP employment results

 

the more dow goes up, the higher chances of it dropping soon imho opinion lol.. wonder which asset will get liquidated next after gold and fund the dow rise.. once nth can be liquidated to push dow up, it will surely goes back down.. but may not need to wait till that for the fall, since we have US debt issue in may that may give a legitimate excuse for a correction.. see how the politicians & media play the news.. media is one of most important elements to fuel rise or fall in market sentiment.. hoping for a fall in may, then pick up stocks cheaply

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 01-May-2013 11:13) Posted: Dow Jones Industrial Average 14,839.80 21.05 (0.14%) ...with this closing at end April.... touching 15,000 in May should be very likely......?... ...this May may not be similar to the usual May (ie sell in May and go away...the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August)...

 

if u are a bull, I suggest u better don touch this thread..

based on the past few posts.. it seems like  most of the  posts lead a sharp drop after a few months

guoyanyunyan      ( Date: 01-May-2013 11:13) Posted: Dow Jones Industrial Average 14,839.80 21.05 (0.14%) ...with this closing at end April.... touching 15,000 in May should be very likely......?... ...this May may not be similar to the usual May (ie sell in May and go away...the best six month period in the first year following a presidential election is March through August)...

 

 

Tonight up!

Hulumas      ( Date: 03-Nov-2010 17:44) Posted: Up or down loh.............. addirk      ( Date: 19-Jun-2006 12:08) Posted: Hi, Anybody have any "feelings" on how the dow is gonna perform tonite?

 

Up or down loh..............

addirk      ( Date: 19-Jun-2006 12:08) Posted: Hi, Anybody have any "feelings" on how the dow is gonna perform tonite?

 

Just an update on last friday closing..............

STI
  3615.38 -24.11


SESALL
  997.75 -1.22


AS51
  6332.9 -49.7


KLCI
  1391.57 3.61


FTSE
  6567.4 -28.6


DOW
  13360.26 -185.58


NASDAQ
  2588.96 -28


SP500
  1502.56 -19.63


NIKKEI
  18156.41 -32.22


TPX
  1775.45 -2.54


HSI
  21999.91 45.24

 

Is going to open abit higher b4 ppl take profit, down it goes, then end of the day, guess it is up, (note oil falling on electronic trading oni good for today) i guess so, it from http://money.cnn.com

 

Ding dong i guess..its pre release of data..

 

Hi, Anybody have any "feelings" on how the dow is gonna perform tonite?