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Dear Hotokee, your worry about drug stent and nuclear crisis may not hold water as it is too simplify to link all developments to the nuclear crisis negatively. On the contrary, it may boost some local patriotic behaviour in supporting local products.
For eg, the mental stress and extreme anxiety can precipitate more cardiovascular event.in existing heart patient pool and the Japanese doctors may be more patriotic than ever before to support local/ own country product (eg Nobori) in their effort to stimulate local economy.Lets have some lateral thinking .
hotokee ( Date: 04-Apr-2011 10:11) Posted:
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investor ( Date: 04-Apr-2011 10:06) Posted:
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Latest news from Nomura.... For Info.
Biosensors International [BIG SP] - Buy : Nobori: approved in Japan
( S$1.18 / PT: S$1.5 )
Jit Soon Lim Yuan Yiu Tsai
According to an official document released by Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, Terumo has received approval for its Nobori stent for sale in Japan on 9 March. We believe Nobori's market share would receive an initial boost from the 3,200-patient clinical trial starting in May and we forecast an 11%/25% market share in FY12/13F (Mar-end). The timely approval reaffirms our bullish earnings growth forecast for BIG (+52/63% in FY11/12F). Reiterate BUY.
topdog22 ( Date: 02-Apr-2011 06:16) Posted:
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There are 2 aspects to the rise of Biosensor's share price.
Technically, due to DBS Vickers' analyst upgrade, the stock broke the resistance of 1.20, which further entice more buyers into the stock. However, technically, the previous high of 1.24-1.26 is the next resistance.
A resistance, however can be broken, just as 1.20 was broken, when new 'news' come in, in this case, the upgrade by DBS. However, you would probably expect the share price to do the 'up, down sequence, but still in an uptrend' kind of movement. (I may be wrong here, take it with a pinch of salt).
The SECOND ASPECT, from the fundamental angle is actually more important. DBS Vickers by upgrading the stock to a buy, has actually projected an annualised net profit contribution of US$30m from Japan for FYE mar 2012, and US$45m for FYE mar 2013.
In doing so, Biosensors is projected to grow net profit from US$43m for FYE mar 2011 to US$105m in FYE 2013, (a more than 100% increase !).
By doing so, DBS is adding credibility to these projections as Nomura had already did their own upgrade earlier, with Nomura's own projection going from US$51.4m for FYE 2011 to US$126.8m for FYE 2013 !.
Now what all these figures mean is that Biosensors' PE ratio will drop from PE of 27.9 to PE of 11.5 (DBS Vickers) and from PE of 22.1 to 10.4 (Nomura), for the FYE 2011 to FYE 2013.
Obviously, if these projections are true, what you have is a company growing by more than 100 % in the next 2 yrs, and with its PE ratio going down to low teens.
This is probably the more important reason, why the stock is going up. However, if the company does not live up to these projections, in the coming mths, than the price may well suffer a big correction.
So, enjoy the ride, while you can, scrutinise carefully the developments in Japan, China, the new product launch (Devax, Biofreedom), organic growth, and then make an assessment whether the stock is worth this price, or the analyst's target price of 1.35 (DBS Vickers) or 1.50 (Nomura) or even more than this.
Again, some personal observation. Not a call to buy/sell.
On Thursday, Biosensors re-test the resistance at $1.19 and closed at $1.18 with HIGH volume of 13.77 million shares traded.
Three white candles occurred in the last three days. Although these candles were not big enough to create three white soldiers, the steady upward pattern is bullish.
RSI & MACD are bullish as MACD perform a golden cross today.
Important Resistance of Biosensors: $1.19
Immediate Support of Biosensors: $1.14
Currently prices are supported by the 20/100 days MA at $1.14
Today prices tried to............... READ MORE
bishan22 ( Date: 31-Mar-2011 10:15) Posted:
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Excerpts from DBS Vickers - For Info.............
Expect
• We believe
• Anticipate BIG to book at least US$30m annually in
licensing revenues raised FY12F earnings by 28%
• Making good progress in other areas
• Upgrade to BUY, TP raised to S$1.35
BioMatrix approval in
the next 12 months.
We believe that
observed historically that, for past coronary stents, the time period from CE mark to Japanese market approval took an average of about three years.
BioMatrix, having obtained its CE Mark in 2008 and also submitting it for approval in
This raises the possibility of a near term catalyst for the counter.
US$30m of annualised licensing revenues. We estimate the
Japan market to be worth US$800m and growing at a 6%
annually.
Management believes Terumo is capable of easily
taking a 20% market share, should BioMatrix be approved for
sale in
We have factored BioMatrix’s approval in
and raised BIG’s FY12F/FY13F pretax profit by at least
US$17m/US$45m or 28%/55% annually.
Making good progress in other areas. Apart from
believe BIG is making progress in other operational areas through
market share gains/ penetration, flanked by new product
launches.
Management is also putting in longer-term growth
drivers, as we understand that they are exploring new markets
and products for M& A, especially in
BIG is also working closely with Shandong Weigao to renew their JV agreement,
which expires in 2013.
Upgrade to BUY, SOTP TP raised to S$1.35. Our upgrade
assumes that
Hence, we raised our FY12F forecasts by 27.6%. With near term
catalyst in sight, coupled with contribution from existing
operations, we upgrade BIG to Buy with a revised sum-of-parts
TP of S$1.35, translating to 21x FY12F PE.
Risks. Risks to our recommendation include: (i) reliance on single
product, BioMatrix, at this stage (ii) delays in approvals/ market
penetration in
Analyst: Andy Wong
Biosensors International Group (BIG) announced that it has obtained approval in-principle from SGX for the private placement of 216,325,800 new ordinary shares to Atlantis Investment Management Hong Kong Limited (Atlantis) and Ever Union Capital Limited (Ever Union).
Both independent investment boutique firms will get 50% of the placement shares or approximately 8.18% each of the enlarged share capital.
Maintain BUY albeit dilutive impact. The dilution factor works out to be 16.4%, which seems quite substantial, in our view. Nevertheless, we are confident that management would be able to efficiently utilise the proceeds to generate value for their shareholders.
Reiterate BUY with a revised fair value estimate of S$1.32 (previously S$1.36).
topdog22 ( Date: 26-Mar-2011 20:14) Posted:
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Biosensors full year results is normally announced on 26th May, or somewhere near there.
Other than the results to provide some catalyst, the EuroPCR medical conference to be held between 17th May to 20th May should provide some excitement.
In the conference, Biosensors will officially launch the Devax bifurcation DES. Also, there is normally, a symposium to be held by Biosensors, as well as possibly some clinical data to be released.
For info. Not a call to buy/sell.
Great analysis Investor:
BIG's FYE is over at end of month. Any idea when post YE results?
Based on JWMS and withdrawal from US, expecting upside earnings surprise. Hope it is soon as I would finally like to see good news come in a relatively stable market so stock can finally reach its potential.
On 11th Mar, the day of the Japan earthquake, Biosensors closed at 1.18, yesterday, it closed at 1.16, a 2 cents difference.
In the recent correction (due to the earthquake), the stock showed greater resilience, by dropping to an intra-day low of 1.09 on 18th mar, but closing at 1.10. This low is very much higher than the previous low of 0.96 (on 18th Feb), showing that the stock is in stronger hands this time.
From a technical perspective, the recent low of 1.09 should act as a support, while clearing the recent high of 1.20 remains a barrier.
If 1.20 is cleared, this may bring about more buyers, and the stock will probably attempt to go to this year's all time high of 1.24-1.26.
If 1.09 is broken to the downside, (which looks unlikely at the moment, unless something worst than the Japan earthquake takes place), than 0.96 to 1.00 looks very likely. (ALso 1.03-1.05 also looks like a minor area of support).
The overall technical picture looks positive at the moment, with all its moving averages in their proper places, and with the 20 mva cutting above the 50 days.
But bear in mind, stocks do not go up one way all the time, given that traders do lock in profit now and then. (Neither do stocks do down one way all the time). The caveat of course, is that there is no significant deterioration in its fundamentals, in which case, all bets are off.
Again, just a technical observation. Not a call to buy/sell.
From Nomura
Biosensors International [BIG SP] - Buy : MicroPort 4Q10 earnings call: reaffirms robust volume growth dynamics( S$1.13 / PT: S$1.5 )
For info. Not a call to buy/sell.
Biosensors/JWMS' major competitor in China, MicroPort (853 HK, Non-rated) reported its 4Q10 earnings today.
On the overall DES market in China, management provided similar guidance as Weigao -- 15-17% revenue growth in 2011 on the back of 25~30% volume growth offset by a 10% cut in ASP due to competitive and regulatory pressure (government tender likely in 2H11).
Management believes the market share dominance by the three major local DES makers will continue despite the entry of new players.
Biosensors International Group: Forms new subsidiary in Germany
Biosensors International Group (BIG) reported that it has incorporated a
subsidiary, Biosensors Deutschland GmbH in Germany with an initial issued
and paid up capital of €25k. Its principal activities are the sales and marketing
of medical devices. The transaction is funded by internal resources and is
not expected to have any material impact on the EPS or NTA of BIG for
FY11. Europe remains the key market for BIG although it has been trying
to increase its strategic focus in Asia. We note that BIG has highlighted
the acquisitions of new assets as one of its key reasons for undertaking a
private placement to raise ~S$200.8m (still pending SGX approval). Hence
we expect more upcoming acquisitions that could potentially complement
its product portfolio and enhance its capabilities. Maintain
value estimate of S$1.36 (S$1.13 after accounting for dilution)
Ching Andy)
BUY and fair(Wong TeckST
BIOSENSORS INTERNATIONAL GROUP, LTD.
(Incorporated in Bermuda with limited liability)
(Company Registration Number: EC 24983)
NEW SUBSIDIARY IN GERMANY
The principal activities of Biosensors Deutschland GmbH are sales and marketing of medical devices.
The Board of Directors of Biosensors International Group, Ltd. (“the Company”) wishes to announce that its wholly owned subsidiary, Biosensors Europe SA, has incorporated a subsidiary, Biosensors Deutschland GmbH in Germany with an initial issued and paid up capital of Euro 25,000.The transaction is funded by internal sources and is not expected to have any material impact on the earnings per share or the net tangible assets of the Company in the financial year ending 31 March 2011.
None of the directors or substantial shareholders of the Company has any interest, direct or indirect, in this transaction.
BY ORDER OF THE BOARD
Yoh-Chie Lu
Chairman
18 March 2011, Singapore
FROM CEO OF JAPAN's PMDA
" .....PMDA's major operations of product application review, product safety monitoring, and relief services are not much affected by the earthquake and our personnel suffered hardly any damage. Mainly due to the current traffic disturbance, however, some of PMDA activities including inspections and meetings with external parties have been canceled or rescheduled.
I believe that the concerted efforts by PMDA staff can restore the Agency's sound operations fairly quickly. Our earliest restoration should contribute to the nation and eventually to the people suffering from the disaster.
We continue our endeavor to overcome this hardship. I would appreciate your kind understanding and continuous cooperation.
Best regards,
Tatsuya Kondo, M.D.,Ph.D.
Chief Executive
Pharmaceuticals and Medical Devices Agency (PMDA)