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metaphoricsymbol ( Date: 12-Apr-2011 10:16) Posted:
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The BIG Jinx has struck again. News is out finally - but market is down.
Will just have to wait for analysts upgrade to take effect before we see share price move up to 1.30.
OCBC Research-Biosensors International Group: Nobori stent approved in Japan
Summary: Biosensors International Group (BIG) announced that Terumo Corporation (Terumo) has received approval for the sale of its Nobori drug-eluting stent (DES) in Japan, based on a document released by Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. The Nobori DES uses the stent technology and proprietary Biolimus A9 drug licensed from BIG (similar to BIG’s BioMatrix DES) in exchange for royalty payments. Hence BIG would be able to reap additional licensing revenues from Terumo moving forward. The DES market for Japan is estimated to be worth ~US$600m and is currently dominated by the four U.S. medical technology giants. We expect Terumo to penetrate this market strongly, underpinned by (i) the proven safety and efficacy of BIG’s DES technology and (ii) Terumo’s ability to leverage on Japanese physician’s loyalty given that it is the first local firm to rollout a DES. We update our assumptions for BIG’s licensing revenues and bump up our FY12F revenue and core earnings forecasts by 7.3% and 10.6% respectively. This in turn raises our DCF-based fair value estimate from S$1.32 to S$1.48. Reiterate BUY
Some extracts from Nomura's report on Biosensors, dated 8th Apr 2011.
Key catalysts over the next 12-months:
Potential restructuring/value-unlocking of China assets – We believe BIG’s recent share placement to Atlantis Investments (11% shareholder of Weigao) is not only a move to strengthen its balance sheet but also has strategic implications with regards to its China operations.
Moreover, the appointment of Dr Jack Wang as co-CEO in November 10 also reflects BIG’s strategic shift towards the key growth market, in our view. To this end, we expect the ongoing restructuring of its China assets to be accelerated for the benefit of the stakeholders involved.
SFDA approval of BioMatrix in China – Owing to the heightened regulatory standards in China, BioMatrix’s approval has been repeatedly delayed with limited visibility.
BIG’s management, who earlier provided guidance on the approval timeline, has since turned conservative in guiding the market. We believe eventual approval is on the cards, which could surprise on the upside we have not built in any forecasts for BioMatrix in China given the uncertainties in timing of approval.
CE approval of BioFreedom – Management expects BioFreedom to receive CE Mark by this financial year (end-Mar 13), which would allow the group to commercially launch its next-generation stent in the EU. While initial earnings contribution is not expected to be significant until a large-scale clinical trial is conducted, we believe the approval would reaffirm BioFreedom’s leading-edge technology, allowing BIG to explore potential collaborations to penetrate the US market.
ANother extract from the same report...........
JWMS – more synergies with BIG going forward? During the earnings call, Weigao did not deny the possibility of BioMatrix’s distribution via JWMS upon its approval in China, which is imminent according to Weigao’s management.
While Biosensors has not confirmed such a scenario, we believe there are significant synergies to be extracted between JWMS and the two JV partners.
In this regard, we believe a key event to watch out for in 2011 is any potential restructuring of the JV ownership structure to align the interests of both shareholders.
Above for info only. Not a call to buy/sell.
Singapore, 11 April 2011 ‐ Biosensors International Group, Ltd. (“Biosensors” or the “Group”, Bloomberg: BIG SP) is pleased to announce that it has hired veteran financial executive Ronald H. Ede as Chief Financial Officer (“CFO”).
Mr. Ede brings to Biosensors more than 18 years of executive‐ level financial management experience, including positions as CFO of New York Stock Exchange‐ listed and NASDAQ‐ listed public companies.
Since 2006, Mr. Ede served on the Board of Directors, and later as CFO, of Mindray Medical International, the largest medical equipment company in China which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, where he led the integration initiatives of Mindray’s acquisition projects in the United States.
After he leaves Mindray, he will remain as a non‐ executive board member for the company. Prior to his service at Mindray, he was CFO for the Asia Pacific region of JDSU Corporation, a NASDAQ‐ listed company which is one of the largest global providers of optical components and testing solutions for telecommunications companies.
After gaining his MBA from the University of Washington, USA, Mr. Ede started his career as a financial analyst with Hewlett Packard, before joining ATL Ultrasound as Finance Manager. Following a promotion to Director of Finance, he was appointed Managing Director for the Asian region of SonoSite, a spin‐ off company from ATL Ultrasound. He has also acted as a Consultant to a variety of organizations on their Asia‐ based operations.
A US citizen, Mr. Ede reads Chinese and speaks Cantonese, Mandarin and Shanghai dialect.
“Ronald’s extensive financial and corporate experience will play a crucial role in the implementation of Biosensors’ business strategy”, commented Biosensors Co‐ CEO Dr. Jack Wang. “His reporting and compliance experience from working in NYSE and NASDAQ listed companies will provide a particularly valuable asset as we look to consolidate and further expand our operations in the Asia‐ Pacific region.”
“Ronald’s specific expertise in the mergers and acquisitions area is especially welcome as we enter what looks set to be a particularly active phase of the company’s development through these means.
We very much look forward to working with Ronald as we continue to build our business” added Co‐ CEO Jeffrey B. Jump.
fragaria ( Date: 11-Apr-2011 14:41) Posted:
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Announcement from Biosensors - Acknowledgement of Approval from Japan's Ministry of Health.....
For info.
The board of directors (the " Board" ) of Biosensors International Group, Ltd. (the “Company”)
wishes to announce as follows:
1. Appointment of Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary
Mr. Ronald Ede will be appointed as Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary of the
Company with effect from 11 April 2011.
The detailed template announcement pursuant to Rule 704(7) of the Listing Manual of the
Singapore Exchange Securities Trading Limited (“SGX-ST”) relating to the appointment of
Mr. Ede will be announced separately.
2. Update on Japanese Approval
According to a document released by Japan’s Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, it
has come to the Company’s attention that Terumo Corporation (“Terumo”) has received
Governmental approval for the sale of its Nobori stent in Japan. Terumo is a company
whose shares are listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange and is the Company’s licensee for
Biomatrix technology in Japan. We understand that Terumo has not announced or rolled
out its plans for the launch of its Nobori stent in Japan.
Biosensors International BIG SP
HEALTH CARE & PHARMACEUTICALS |
Jit Soon Lim, CFA +65 6433 6969 jitsoon.lim@nomura.com
Yuan Yiu Tsai +65 6433 6964 yuanyiu.tsai@nomura.com
Closing price on 7 Apr S$1.23
Price target S$1.50
(set on 8 Mar 11)
Upside/downside 22.0%
Difference from consensus 22.0%
FY12F net profit (US$mn) 77.9
Difference from consensus na
Source: Nomura
Nomura vs consensus
We believe consensus has not
recognized the potential of Terumo’s
Action
Our review of the global DES industry dynamics (market size, growth opportunities, R& D pipeline) reaffirms our bullish view on Biosensors, which we believe is emerging as a credible new force in a competitive landscape traditionally dominated by US med-tech giants. Following the approval of Nobori in March, we believe further re-rating will be underpinned by several catalysts. BUY.
Catalysts Continued momentum in its forthcoming results, the potential value-unlocking of its
Anchor themes The US$5bn DES industry is one of the most profitable segments in the medical tech space, with market share changes driven by innovation. Biosensors, with its leading-edge technology, could be an M& A target for incumbents, in our view.
US$5bn industry: volume growth offset by ASP decline
Despite the ASP declines seen globally, the overall DES market size
has held up well with robust volume growth. Global med-tech giants
believe the worst was over in 2010 in terms of regulatory ASP
pressure, and are bullish on the volume growth potential in the
relatively under-penetrated markets – eg,
Abbott Vascular/Boston Scientific’s (ABT/BSX) Xience V/Promus
remains the market-leading stent platform, while Biosensors/Terumo’s
BioMatrix/Nobori platform stands out for its remarkable market share
gains against the incumbents.
The 2011 revenue growth guidance (+15~17%y-y) from both Weigao
and MicroPort reaffirms the attractive market dynamics for the local
incumbents, which are well-entrenched in the face of potential new
entrants. ASP pressure also appears to be less of an issue at this
stage. On the flip side, we note that global med-tech giants are
beginning to realize the importance of this key growth market and
have started to invest heavily in sales infrastructure.
Following its timely approval in March, we believe Nobori’s
commercial launch in
will likely be boosted by the 3,200-patient NEXT trial starting in May.
BIG is well-positioned to benefit from top-line growth via royalty
payments, without any associated costs from the trial sponsorship.
Reaffirm BUY – highlighting key catalysts in 2011/12
We reaffirm our BUY rating for BIG. We believe further re-rating will
be underpinned by: i) potential restructuring/value-unlocking of its
Mark approval of BioFreedom by end-FY12.
The last time it touched 1.26 was 9 Nov 2010 when full day volume was about 26 million. Last week only manaed to hit 1.25 with full day volume of about 10 million.
Today with volume of 18 million in just three hours, it looks set to cross 1.26 in the afternon or tomorrow. If so will attempt 1.30-1.32.
If not could see a pull back to 1.21.
investor ( Date: 04-Apr-2011 10:06) Posted:
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A bit confused. I thought from this earlier posting, there was some sort of approval? Yet DBS and Daiwa states that the approval is imminent which means no approval yet?. Can anyone explain? Anything to do with the statement by the MD of the Japanese approving body on the 18th of march that all matters will be on hold because of the earthquake?
infancybird ( Date: 04-Apr-2011 10:30) Posted:
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Highlights from our corporate day meetings
Pyari Menon
(65) 6499 6566
pyari.menon@sg.daiwacm.com
• Licensing revenue from Terumo should be the next earnings driver
• The recent S$200m placement has strengthened the group’s balance sheet, giving it
flexibility for M& A opportunities
• In discussions with an accredited certification body with regards to applying for
CE Mark approval for BioFreedom
� � Background
We hosted Biosensors International Group (Biosensors) (market cap: US$1,290m) during the Daiwa Discovery Day on 5 April 2011
� � Highlights
The company was bullish with respect to its prospects, driven primarily by its belief that it is ahead of its competitors with respect to technology in the drug eluting stent (DES) market.
� � Valuation
Based on the Bloomberg-consensus forecasts, the company trades currently at PERs of 28x for FY11 and 23x for FY12.
Much of the discussions during the corporate day focused on four
themes:
1) the potential for further market-share gains
2) JW Medical’s (Not Listed) contribution and approval of BioMatrix in
3) the contribution from Terumo (4543 JP, ¥4,550, from its launch in
4) the purpose of the recent fund-raising
Potential market-share gains in
The company indicated that it is one of two DES makers to have been consistently gaining market share in
countries within which it operates, and believes market-share gains are
likely to be slower going forward as it has already gained substantial market share.
Besides Europe, Biosensors expects some organic market-share gains in
BioFreedom and is in discussions with certification bodies to see if the results have sufficient depth for applying for CE Mark approval.
JW Medical’s contribution and launch of BioMatrix in
The company indicated that subsidiary JW Medical’s Excel stent was probably the second-bestselling stent in
would receive approval to market and distribute BioMatrix in
While foreign brands comprise just 20% of DES volumes sold in
stent makers see. This is part of
the reason that Biosensors is keen to launch BioMatrix in
though it has a leading position in the DES market through JW Medical’s Excel stent.
Contribution from Terumo:
Biosensors pointed out that Terumo has still not announced its launch of
Nobori in
Hirozumi, in a note in February (based on his discussions with Terumo) expects Terumo to launch Nobori in mid-summer this year at the earliest, and at the latest by the end of this year
According to Katsuro, Terumo anticipates Nobori winning a 30% market share at its peak.
Purpose of the fund-raising:
According to the company, the recent fund-raising gives it flexibility with regards R& D, as well as a wider range of potential acquisitions
Share price performance
12-month share price performance Straits Times Index
12-month range 0.74-1.24
Average daily turnover (US$m) 6.71
By Najeeb Jarhom
Poised to test long standing $1.52 peak and move to new highs in medium term but may need time to clear upper end of historic $1.24-$1.31 resistance area
Apart from RSI entering overbought zone, other short and longer term technical indicators point to Biosensors moving higher going forward to test its Oct 2005 record high of $1.52, not long after market debut in May that year.
It has been climbing steadily since Oct 2008 bottom at 22.5c only reacting negatively to the recent market correction phase as well as the one a year ago. Otherwise even the worst skeptics would not argue against the convincing 2-1/2 year uptrend that should lead to new highs this year to
beat the one recorded more than 5 years ago in Oct 2005.
All Fibonacci counts from 1 year to 5 years taking highest at May 2006 high of $1.31 to 22.5c, show all have been breached thus pointing to $1.31 as next target. Even taking the $1.52 peak, the 76.4% mark at $1.21 has also been taken out implying target of $1.52 is also coming. Thus $1.21 is new support backed by the one year 76% mark at $1.13-14, which should hold up unless another crisis emerges.
Another interesting feature is the rising 50 and 100 days SMA (at $1.13 and $1.14 ) are on brink of golden cut, for first time since July last year. Even a neutral cut between the then falling 50 and rising 100 towards end-Feb, led the strong rebound from 96c at worst of recent Mideast crisis to continue to as high as $1.20. What more now with the imminent bullish crossover.
Strong rising daily MACD has sparked the weekly to be on brink of a bullish cut with signal line for first time since Sept last year. The strong run-up from 80c to as high as $1.26 last Nov should spill over this time taking the counter to break $1.31-35 and move to $1.52.
Interestingly during Oct 2005 when $1.52 was recorded, the month’s low was $1.23, finishing at $1.25. The earlier high was $1.35 and the subsequent month’s high was $1.38 before it plunged to the $1 area.
Subsequently $1.13-15 emerged as support when $1.24-29 resistance failed to break. This time support is expected to be higher at $1.18-21, the highs reached soon after listing.
Your point taken but common people are not allow to buy stent...it is not purchaseable by layman but it is through doctors recommendation and is the doctor`s choice. Successful and favourable trial results are very important to influence the doctors to choose say BIG stent for their patients .
hotokee ( Date: 04-Apr-2011 11:30) Posted:
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Well, what you said is not wrong about heart-problem people getting more worried about the situation and thus have to either order stents to help their heart function better, or new patients are created thus increasing purchase of stents by doctors treating these people.
But I think the people buying stents are the heart patients so not all Japanese will be supporting to buy Biosensors' stents because although the disaster is so destructive it doesn't turn many Japanese to have heart problems.
I think the stock market is so bullish everywhere, and it will result in lesser heart attacks so less stents wanted. So how to say the disaster might help Biosensor, although I cannot rule out that it will help in many other sectors of the global economies owing to re-construction and rebuilding infrastructures.
Hahaha. Just my opinion, maybe I'll see later developments whether to buy or sell.