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Wanna go lido.... ? Bye bye...time up...
We expect fed to maintain its QE ..... while a few of the members have voiced for tapering....but economy recovery is not stable.... unemployment remains high.....inflation remains low..... fed are expected to stick on its bond buying program until september where seasonals effects may balance off the fed tapering.....
Tapering may even be good during 4th qtr....
We maintain our STI year end target to 3812-3835....
Huat ah....
Dow future + 132
All mice... How is your heart beat now?
Day 2 rebound.... tomorrow we will likely to break 3200 level and heading back to 3220 before consolidation..... for fed announcement...
Watch out Japan can be much bigger problem than Greek.
I am cautious optimistic. I start to buy today. But got to be careful about Japanese bond crisis.
I read this from my friend's blog
http://investorsg.blogspot.sg/ Japanese bond crisis become our new focus.
In past 20 years, Japanese Government
relied on issuing bond. Total Government debt is around 250% GDP. In
the past, interest rate was low which was around 1%. But the total debt
amount is huge. Therefore bond interest cost 25% of total Government
revenue.
The new PM decided to drive interest
rate down further by double the amount of their QE progromme to 7 T Yen.
Lower interest rate would promote spending and investment. It could
reverse deflation into 2% inflation. Small amount of inflation may
promote economic grow.
Government bond with less than 1 %
interest. If inflation would go up to 2%, bond holder's real interest
rate will be 1% - 2%= -1%. Investors want to sell their bond
immediately. Central bank's 7T bond purchasing can't meet sellers
demand. Bond seller drive up both interest rate and currency......................
Visit
http://investorsg.blogspot.sg/
Thanks for respect :)
In any case, one shouldn't follow one's post blindly
be it someone who's experienced or having seniority in the forum..
but i always believe, that if one were to buy stock on fundamentals at a reasonable margin of safety
you will definitely profit in the long run..
gd luck dyodd
SFGuyRuleZ ( Date: 16-Jun-2013 16:03) Posted:
I may be new to SJ, but i have been investing for a long time. Never have i lost any money, except when i just started. I don't consider myself a trader, but rather an investor. I look at long term, and not short term. I don't ask to reap profits in a short time, but just seek to continually grow my money. And never once i consider myself a greedy mouse, as much as you would like to think everyone who " play" in the stock market is. I shall not comment on your views about the stock market and your philosophy for investing or trading.
Precisely because i am new to SJ, and from so many posts here in SJ, I am pretty shocked to see so many people has such a distorted view of the stock market and how much they want to earn in so short a time. What really is the essence and function of a stock market and what's the purpose of them serving the economy? Why do companies get listed? I am afraid many people here will just think of the stock market as a giant casino, which dictates what they are doing here and how they trade. Mice or pipers or sharks, whether for BBs or small-time retail investors, one's philosophy in life and views of the stock market will determine the kind of " game" u play in the stock market, and with it therefore comes certain rules for playing that game.
Your rules may probably be right for the game you are playing, but that's your game, and not mine. So don't try to see me the way you see yourself. Shall say no further. Lastly, you do post some unbiased and nice facts and updates about indices and the market. I do appreciate because from all the information here, from you and others, I can spend less time sourcing for them. Good luck in your game!! =)
kelvinLim123 ( Date: 16-Jun-2013 14:27) Posted:
Retailer are mice, BB are the piper.
It is the BB that move mkt, it s the greedy retailer like u and me that go for it and take their bait.
U must follow the trend, the trend is your friend, thus follow smart money, not anyone here.
All here are like u and me, small timer,
u think all those so call sifu are really tofu. they are as good as zero,
u want to trade, u go learn, not form here. not from asking me or anyone.
u will pay a price for this,
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Dow future +118 every day huat!
Dont worry God will keep some for you to buy n huat.
Dulu saya church camp di lomping kereta kena rosak...Hati hati
halleluyah ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 15:22) Posted:
Arh baru check into my rm. Sangat letih sejak awal pagi, jam 8 sampai sekarang....church camp di JB. Spending sometime wth God n frens here. Anyway still hv to report to SJ here also....lol. Wishing all of u gd luck ya....huat big or small also gd lah.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:58) Posted:
| Hahaha! All the mice...curi makan di store room lah!!!sista halleluyah muking curi makan Chang beer n Cmz....or masih tidur belum keluar takut uncle kelvin!!!! Hahahaaa!!! |
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Smart monies are buying into the dips.
Arh baru check into my rm. Sangat letih sejak awal pagi, jam 8 sampai sekarang....church camp di JB. Spending sometime wth God n frens here. Anyway still hv to report to SJ here also....lol. Wishing all of u gd luck ya....huat big or small also gd lah.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:58) Posted:
Hahaha! All the mice...curi makan di store room lah!!!sista halleluyah muking curi makan Chang beer n Cmz....or masih tidur belum keluar takut uncle kelvin!!!! Hahahaaa!!!!
Octavia ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:07) Posted:
| Volume is low.All the mice scare and still hiding. Tak takut?...lol |
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Base view:
As DBS Economics Research's view is that the FED will sit tight on QE,
we take the view that the outcome of Wednesday's press conference will
please markets and STI's correction ended last Thursday in the
short-term at c c.3100. At that level, valuation had fallen to 13.1x
(-0.5 SD) 12-mth forward PE. The immediate support is 3120-3130. STI
should rebound to 3235 (38.2% upward retracement) or even 3280 (50%
upward retracement).
Alternate:
What if Ben spooks financial markets on Wednesday that results in
another sell-off in both bond and equity markets? While previous
post-GFC market corrections have stressed the index down to around 12.3x
(-1SD) 12-mth forward PE (2915 based on current forecast) before
bottoming, we do not see the current correction pulling the STI down to
such extreme this time round. At worst, we expect a bottom that is
'moderately lower' below 3100 but comfortably above 2915.
This
is because unlike previous corrections that were ignited by the fear of
the Eurozone debt crisis deteriorating into another GFC, the current
one started after Ben Bernanke commented that the FED may lower QE3
support if the US economy can sustain its recovery. Investors were
caught off guard by the FED's comments and stress tested equity markets
on the assumption that QE3 will be removed sooner and interest rate
starts to rise earlier.
Compared
to the dangers of another GFC, the roots behind the recent correction
is much less menacing. Between earlier stimulus cut-back, a rise in
interest rates rise from record low levels down the road as the economy
improves in a sustainable manner versus another GFC, no prize for
guessing which situation investors would rather be in.
Stock Futures
Americas
Index Future Future Date Last Net Change Open High Low Time
Dow Jones Indus. Avg Sep 13 15,089.00 +101.00 15,045.00 15,092.00 15,036.00 02:41:29
S&P 500 Sep 13 1,629.50 +11.10 1,619.70 1,630.60 1,618.30 02:41:24
NASDAQ 100 Sep 13 2,957.75 +20.75 2,948.25 2,958.50 2,947.25 02:41:17
S&P/TSX Jun 13 696.50 -7.40 703.60 704.60 696.40 17:10:06
Mexico IPC Jun 13 39,214.00 -359.00 39,480.00 39,595.00 39,200.00 17:29:23
Bovespa Aug 13 49,496.00 -1,105.00 50,800.00 50,825.00 49,365.00 17:01:22
Dont Fear the Taper
Quantitative easing (QE) programs, courtesy of the Federal Reserve, have pushed cash into Primary Dealer accounts at the fastest rate in history. This has been massively bullish for equities over the past four years, as the Primary Dealers used some of that cash to bid up equity prices. This will likely continue until the Fed significantly curtails or discontinues its QE operations.
US stock indices have been marking time during the past four weeks gauging “talk” about whether Chairman Ben Bernanke will slow down his printing presses. Notwithstanding the rumors, we doubt that QE tapering is on the horizon.
In our view, unless the Fed stops funneling money to the Primary Dealers, which we deem doubtful, pullbacks in stock prices are likely temporary pauses along an upward path. Therefore, in both of our Virtual Portfolios (Value and Put Selling), we are remaining long and unhedged.
The Fed is Unlikely to Taper
America’s national debt now runs approximately $16.5 trillion. President Obama use his power to hold rates down because the cost of higher debt service would devastate his political agenda.
Bernanke does Washington’s bidding so he is probably just ‘talking down’ market enthusiasm by leaking news of a coming ‘taper.’ In this fashion, he uses fear of reduced QE to contain equity prices without actually changing the Fed’s policy.
During the fiscal cliff debate in December 2012, people assumed tax rates would be much higher in following years. That precipitated an enormous amount of accelerated income and dividend payments that would have been made in 2013. Because of the higher income booked in Q4 2012, estimated tax payments due January 15, 2013, soared. This reduced the size of the expected Q1 deficit.
Bernanke’s primary mission is to monetize the debt created by federal budgets that far exceed revenues. We see no way for the Fed to reverse course on QE regardless of the whispers to the contrary.
The Fed has painted itself into a corner and there is no way to unwind the QE trade without debt service costs eating everyone alive. Unwinding would cause interest rates on U.S. sovereign debt to soar, because no one would buy debt at interest rates the government could manage. For every one percent rise in interest rates, there would be an estimated $80Bn in increased annual debt service costs at the federal level. The payment of interest would overwhelm all other spending.
In love with Tina explains why stocks are attractive. There are no viable competing investments if you seek to protect your life saving’s long-term buying power. Absent a major change in policy, a full allocation to equities seems reasonable, as does avoiding fixed income. Bonds today are in a bubble, and a pop of the fixed income bubble is apt to be louder and more astonishing than anything we will see in the equity markets.
Bro,guess you have to hear it from the horse mouth over 18-20 Jun 13 on the Fed's commitment to interest rate.
But interesting the International Monetary Fund had cut its forecast for US economic growth in 2014 from 3% to 2.7%. It also warned that tapering of the Fed stimulus may be risky if not handled properly.It is a kind of hint to Fed to stay on to the QE longer.
novice_trader ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 12:49) Posted:
I'm waiting to see how the FOMC goes... Any idea guys?
Octavia ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 11:23) Posted:
Market seems a bit firm now compared to opening.Mice start coming out and play.
Sista Halleluyah eating Singtel chesse happily lah.
I think this week will be better than last week.
Watch out for FOMC on 18-20 June 13.
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I'm waiting to see how the FOMC goes... Any idea guys?
Octavia ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 11:23) Posted:
Market seems a bit firm now compared to opening.Mice start coming out and play.
Sista Halleluyah eating Singtel chesse happily lah.
I think this week will be better than last week.
Watch out for FOMC on 18-20 June 13.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:58) Posted:
| Hahaha! All the mice...curi makan di store room lah!!!sista halleluyah muking curi makan Chang beer n Cmz....or masih tidur belum keluar takut uncle kelvin!!!! Hahahaaa!!! |
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Asean witnessed US$1,425m of foreign outflows from the equity markets, the highest weekly outflow since September 2011. Since the beginning of QE taper fears, Indonesia has witnessed foreign outflows of US$1,783m, wiping out YTD inflows (to May 22, 2013) of US $1,761m. Thailand has witnessed net foreign outflows of US$1,646m since QE tapering fears, bringing its YTD foreign outflows to US$1,792m. Philippines witnessed net foreign outflows of US$109m only, while YTD it still has strong inflows of US$1,492m.
Market seems a bit firm now compared to opening.Mice start coming out and play.
Sista Halleluyah eating Singtel chesse happily lah.
I think this week will be better than last week.
Watch out for FOMC on 18-20 June 13.
GorgeousOng ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:58) Posted:
Hahaha! All the mice...curi makan di store room lah!!!sista halleluyah muking curi makan Chang beer n Cmz....or masih tidur belum keluar takut uncle kelvin!!!! Hahahaaa!!!!
Octavia ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:07) Posted:
| Volume is low.All the mice scare and still hiding. Tak takut?...lol |
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Hahaha! All the mice...curi makan di store room lah!!!sista halleluyah muking curi makan Chang beer n Cmz....or masih tidur belum keluar takut uncle kelvin!!!! Hahahaaa!!!!
Octavia ( Date: 17-Jun-2013 10:07) Posted:
| Volume is low.All the mice scare and still hiding. Tak takut?...lol |
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As macro recovery remains modest, we pick stocks where
earnings growth is highly visible and sustainable: Ezion (TP
S$3.00) will continue to outperform on secured contracts
and its unique market positioning Tat Hong (TP: S$1.80)
is positioned to benefit from the regional infrastructure
boom Del Monte (TP: S$0.97) is a proxy to Philippines,
SEA’s 2nd largest consumer market. Kreuz (TP: S$0.78) is
our top pick in the O& G services sector for its proven
execution track record while Midas (TP: S$0.60) is poised
for earnings recovery backed by its growing order book.
For value, Vard (TP: S$1.46) is a bargain at 6.3x FY14PE vs
normalized 10x PE. We believe the Myanmar theme will
continue as reforms continue to attract FDIs. Results of
telecom license and Yangon Airport development
contracts are imminent events. Picks are Yoma (TP:
S$1.05) and Yongnam (TP: S$0.41).
Source DBS
