SingTel    Last:4.63    +0.13

Singtel Bullish???

SingTel's Optus business completely crushed by Telstra

It was a complete decimation of their Optus business.
SingTel subsidiary Optus is struggling for its proverbial 4G life in Australia and new figures show the carrier is at risk of losing the fight for its future. This is very serious news for Singtel and has already been highlighted in their results.

But the results, whilst flat, don't tell the true story of a strategy that is leading to fundamental failure in the Australian market. As Australia, like Singapore, moves to 4G, Optus is getting crushed by Telstra, the number one telco. How crushed?

Let's look at the facts. In the last six months Telstra added about 600,000 new customers - half of them for the 4G service. Optus managed not even one tenth of that number - 53,000 new customers in all. This is not just a loss, its not a blip, its a complete rout and a disaster for Optus as it loses the race to 4G.

And it gets even worse. If you don't get new customers its pretty hard to grow profits. Telco's should be profit machines, yet Optus managed to see its profit decline 9% over the fourth quarter. This was a prime reason for SingTel seeing its own profits fall 8.3 % in the fourth quarter.

If SingTel can fix Optus, it can fix its own profitability woes. But the numbers suggest that its not just losing, it has been completely routed. It's only proposed solution is to invest some more money in more retail outlets and cut some ties with existing resellers.

But the number of shops selling Optus may not be the reason it is not picking up all those new 4G subscribers. Network speed are key for 4G customers and Telstra has the perceived advantage.

Optus increased its spending on its core infrastructure by 41 % to $176 million, but the customer decisions to choose Telstra over Optus by a 10 to 1 advantage would suggest this may not be enough. Shifting shops and distributors may not be enough to turn this ship around

 

wow ... singtel might forge partnership with Ntegrator then??? i sure hope that happens....... I shall pray hard that happens.....

FearValueGreed      ( Date: 12-Feb-2013 16:05) Posted: singtel price goes up not because of the boring results but the fact it is eyeing for the mega contracts in Myanmar. Since the Myanmar government is providing only two initial licences to grab, M&A opportunities would be limited.OSK research expect the bidding to be intense and highly-charged.This leads them to believe that some operators may forge partnerships and bid as part of a consortium to improve their chances of winning.It understands that the Myanmar government is keen to see foreign investors form joint ventures with two state-owned enterprises - MPT & Yatanarpon Teleport - which will be awarded separate licences. I suspect price would head up towards contract announcement.

 

I am waiting below 3.40!!!

 

Unlikely drop a lot on Monday, but may continue dropping few cents everyday until its support level.

 

Keep on collecting yes...

Accumulate no, unless accumulate at same price over many months.

Octavia      ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 22:43) Posted: can consider to  accumulate if down to $3.30 iPunter      ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 22:11) Posted: This counter may drop like sheet on Monday.

 

Technically on the chart, it closed a Doji, indicating price  stabilized. Then it might move up on Monday. 

iPunter      ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 22:11) Posted: This counter may drop like sheet on Monday.

 

can consider to  accumulate if down to $3.30

iPunter      ( Date: 15-Feb-2013 22:11) Posted: This counter may drop like sheet on Monday.

 

This counter may drop like sheet on Monday.

 

SingTel saw its 3QFY13 group revenue dipping 4.8 per cent YoY to S$4,597 million, and while EBITDA rose 0.5 per cent to S$1,262 million, net profit fell 8.3 per cent to S$827 million. However, excluding exceptional items, underlying net profit was down 2.3 per cent at S$874 million. 9MFY13 revenue fell 2.4 per cent to S$13,702 million, meeting 73 per cent of our FY13 forecast, while net profit slipped 2.2 per cent to S$2,640 million core earnings was down 1.6 per cent at S$2,610 million, or 69 per cent of full-year estimate. Going forward, SingTel has kept its previously revised guidance unchanged for FY13 i.e. consolidated revenue to see single-digit decline, although EBITDA will remain stable. Free cashflow (FCF) is expected to remain around S$2.6 billion capex for Singapore still around S$950 million and Australia about A$1.1 billion. SingTel adds that consolidated revenue and EBITDA would be impacted by material exchange rate movements in A$ and regional currencies. While SingTel will continue to focus on its transformation plan to grow in the new digital era, it can also grow its regional business. We understand that the telco is understandably keen on getting into a new and untapped market in Myanmar. However, management notes that it is still early days as the government there has just called for an expression of interest. It adds that many global telco players are also keen on securing one of the two licenses potentially on offer. As results were in line with our expectations, we opt to leave our forecasts unchanged for now. However, in line of the recent recovery in the price of its listed associates, our SOTP-based fair value improves from S$3.53 to S$3.68. – OCBC Investment Research

 

Noticed that today's sell-off didn't have overly high volume than what we normally see for Singtel. Hope BBs are still looking beyond the current quarter results to the future potential of singtel..India recovery, Optus restructure, Myanmar opportunity... Now at 3.50 which had earlier taken awhile to cross...hope can bounce from here and resume uptrend tomorrow. Vested. :)

Octavia      ( Date: 14-Feb-2013 08:45) Posted: SingTel's net profit attributable to shareholders fell 8.3 per cent year-on-year to S$827 million for its third quarter ended Dec 31, 2012, it said on Thursday. This was due to the telco's investments in networks and transformational initiatives, increased depreciation, spectrum amortisation charges, acquisition costs, exceptional charges, as well as the impact of weaker foreign currencies. Group revenue for the quarter also declined 4.8 per cent to S$4.6 billion, from S$4.8 billion in the previous year. For the first nine months of FY2012, its net profit fell 2.2 per cent on-year to S$2.6 billion, as group revenue slid 2.4 per cent to S$13.7 billion.

 

SingTel's net profit attributable to shareholders fell 8.3 per cent year-on-year to S$827 million for its third quarter ended Dec 31, 2012, it said on Thursday.

This was due to the telco's investments in networks and transformational initiatives, increased depreciation, spectrum amortisation charges, acquisition costs, exceptional charges, as well as the impact of weaker foreign currencies.

Group revenue for the quarter also declined 4.8 per cent to S$4.6 billion, from S$4.8 billion in the previous year.

For the first nine months of FY2012, its net profit fell 2.2 per cent on-year to S$2.6 billion, as group revenue slid 2.4 per cent to S$13.7 billion.

 

Most probably middle of this year. 

 

Thanks for your insight. This is getting exciting..something you dont normally expect from singtel. Would you know what is the timeline to announcr and award the contract?

 

singtel price goes up not because of the boring results but the fact it is eyeing for the mega contracts in Myanmar.

Since the Myanmar government is providing only two initial licences to grab, M&A opportunities would be limited.OSK research expect the bidding to be intense and highly-charged.This leads them to believe that some operators may forge partnerships and bid as part of a consortium to improve their chances of winning.It understands that the Myanmar government is keen to see foreign investors form joint ventures with two state-owned enterprises - MPT & Yatanarpon Teleport - which will be awarded separate licences.

I suspect price would head up towards contract announcement.

 

singtel price goes up not because of the boring results but the fact it is eyeing for the mega contracts in Myanmar.

Since the Myanmar government is providing only two initial licences to grab, M&A opportunities would be limited.OSK research expect the bidding to be intense and highly-charged.This leads them to believe that some operators may forge partnerships and bid as part of a consortium to improve their chances of winning.It understands that the Myanmar government is keen to see foreign investors form joint ventures with two state-owned enterprises - MPT & Yatanarpon Teleport - which will be awarded separate licences.

I suspect price would head up towards contract announcement.

 

Good the see the uptrend intact. Much focus will certainly be on this week's Q3 results. Hope Singtel gives us a good surprise here.

Happy CNY to everyone!!

edchai      ( Date: 07-Feb-2013 16:59) Posted: Good show today and quarterly results will only be announced after CNY .... sit back and relax first. Gong Xi Fa Cai !!

 

Good show today and quarterly results will only be announced after CNY .... sit back and relax first.

Gong Xi Fa Cai !!

 

 

Finally crossed over the 3.51 resistance at close today! Hope can reinforce this breakout in tomorrow's session...

 

StarHub and SingTel's upcoming quarterly results will be out on 7 and 14 Feb 2013 respectively. We expect StarHub to report SGD80-84m for 4Q12 and SGD880-900m for SingTel for 3QFY13. The trajectory is similar, namely both down YoY, but the calls could not be more different. We continue to like StarHub for its improving cashflow and low net debt/EBITDA, which gives it room to raise dividend payout, either as recurring ordinary dividends or as a special payout later in the year. It is also competing well against an increasingly aggressive SingTel, unlike M1. BUY, TP SGD4.31. SingTel's increasingly cost-heavy strategy however is expected to weigh down on profits. It is beefing up Pay TV content to shore up its bundling offers and spending big money on acquisitions of start-ups that have no chance of positive returns in the short-term. Speculation on a Myanmar licence is likely a " buy on rumor, sell on news" event. SELL. TP SGD3.03

Source: Maybank Kim Eng Research - 05 Feb 2013

 

Sifu is right...

  Stock-betting is not always a bed of roses.

      Often, after one has bought, the stock falls...

            And after one has sold, the stock rallies.

                  Thus, developing a viable system of play is best ...

edchai      ( Date: 05-Feb-2013 07:20) Posted: It's always good to have an exit plan, be it take profit or otherwise.