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ayo ..so serious meh? juz kidding ard lah...any i dun short BIG ..play small oni...hee...so any1 shorted this burger? i juz did for CAO :D
Hi nickyng,
this is my own personal opinion on shorting. I feel that the returns are quite low because of the short time frame as you are only given one day. Add to this the transaction costs that you incurred which will further eat into your profits. I rarely do short selling unless I'm pretty certain of earning a profit. The most recent times when I did it I have been fortunate enough to earn a few hundred dollars each. (specifically for Jurong Tech and Cosco). For me it's high risk low return if you do it often. You just need to get caught out once and you will lose your previous profits.
Anyway just my thots. Not any advise to participate or not participate in short selling.
nickyng,
Thanks for your advice.
Unfortunately, I am not so fleet footed......as such, I neither short or contra.
Also, I am not big enough to stand with you...so I am neither with or against you.
When I decide to take a stand, I will do so at my own time and on my own terms.....and I take the stand alone.
aya..dun speculate too much...wan u SHORT...if not u CONTRA lah !! :P take a stand!!! u with me or against me? hee....
Re meilian's post.....just another case of analysts conning the market.......hoping retails investors fall for their ruse.
Results came in 11% below consensus expectations.
"Cosco's earnings stream (mostly shiprepair) is widely perceived as high quality due to high predictability & relative stability. This negative EPS surprise is disturbing. Has the market been too generous in according premium execution to Cosco?" said an institutional dealer.
Personally I find it amazing that with such poor Q1 results, the analysts can still call a buy on the counter. CIMB and Kim Eng all have a buy on this counter with target price of even $4 plus for CIMB. The counter is already trading at close to 30X PE of its forward EPS. Dun think it can trade any higher. And once all these reports became publicly available, the price just went up after lunch time. Both of these houses must be rubbing their hands in glee when the prices picked up for them to unload their holdings.
Down the track, the company may really earn big big profits but right now, the results just does not justify the prices. With the buoyant US market today, my guess is that the stock may well rise up tomorrow
This counter result isnt promising hence price fall. I wil look at accumulating at 2.65 level. Anyone keen on this counter? Which 2 discuss more wif value investory. Lets share some ideas
This counter is trading about 30X P/E of its forecast 2007 earnings.
Acc/Dist and Chaikin heading south - bearish sign
Price has cut bottom bollinger band - another bearish sign
SINGAPORE, May 2 (Reuters) - Singapore's Straits Times Index <.STI> rose 1.07 percent to 3,397.16 points at 0710 GMT.
Stocks and factors to watch:
Cosco Corp (COSC.SI: Quote, Profile , Research) fell as much as 5.7 percent to S$2.67, after the shipbuilding and repair firm saw lower gross profit margins in the first quarter, and as Citigroup warned of high execution risks for Cosco's new offshore construction business.
Cosco posted a 12 percent rise in quarterly profit to S$42 million on Monday, compared to the same period a year ago. Its gross profit margin fell to 26 percent, against 30.8 percent posted in same year-ago quarter.
For more details, click on [ID:nSIN144786].
"Cosco delivered an uninspiring set of first-quarter results," said Citigroup analyst Kevin Chong.
"We continue to believe that the risks to execution are high with their new facilities and arguably even higher with their recent move into offshore construction."
"With tight delivery of some of the offshore orders and the group's lack of experience, problems could emerge as early as end 2007," added Chong, who has a "sell" rating on the stock.
Cosco was one of the top percentage losers among blue chips.
melvingoh,
You may like to read some earlier posts in this thread.
Hi, anyone have any ideas why this counter plunge so much today? Any bad news? Is it a good time to buy in now? Pls advise...
wow, nickyng, you are really good at shorting man.... congrats !
just short that burger lah !! :P
Was rather suprised to see the counter start out at such a high price today. Short sold at $2.82 and managed to close out position at $2.75. $300 extra spending money for the weekend
Namaste everyone. Just came back from a trekking trip in Nepal a couple of hours ago. This counter always brings a smile to my face but if i may add on, i fully agree with the comments from shplayer and meilian.
No longer vested as i had sold all my holdings in Cosco slightly over 2 weeks ago prior to the trip. The main concern was over the overly high value of the company after studying the report.
In an increasingly competitve sector, the ability of Cosco to deliver sustained growth over the mid-term has probably been priced in as reflected in its high PE ratio. Further, i don't see this stock being able to deliver competitive dividend yields.
Retional and balanced posts from forumers that are not vested should be viewed more highly...cos there is unlikely to be any ulterior motive behind it. That is why I always declare my position so that readers are fully informed where I am coming from.
Yup, I was on the optimistic side. my calculation is basically based on management's representation that current year will be better than 2006. The current share price to me is way too high. That's why all the directors have been exercising their options and then selling them in the open market. They are reaping in the big bucks where the options are around 0.807 to 1.23 and selling them around 2.90 plus region. What I find amazing is that the newpapers are putting it like the the company is going from strength to strenght. Even if it is $2, this counter is still overpriced. Anyway, just my 2c worth. Not vested in this counter
To add to meilian's comments..........
GP margin declined from 31% to 26% => lower margin jobs or COS increase. Commentary attributed lower margins to offshore projects.....looks like Co. is going through a learning curve in this new business.
Expenses increased by 27%.
PBT increased by 16% assisted by 'other gains' (by approx $8m)......stripping this, PBT is stagnant.
Definitely something to be concerned with.
Need to monitor how quickly it can climb the offshore learning curve.......2Q will be interesting.
meilian, my est of FY2007 eps is 8-9cts.......think 10 cts is abit aggressive at this point in time.....