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Why scare... BUY BUY BUY... Dow Jones has yet to break high...going to break soon... Corporate earning so far seem positive and no reason not to break new high...even though there seem to be slowing down but still earning profit..... All fear in 2nd Quarter caused by Europe uncertainty is clear and Euro has seem stability. US also going to announce new plan which i see it positive.
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 20:23) Posted:
yup, i will not be buying anything this week. at least till after the QE is announced, which is thurs. nvm the fact that goldenagri now very cheap and at its term low. reducing risk more important than maximising profit in times of uncertainty.
even if goldenagri this qtr not good, there is still next qtr. i dont really see a reason for commodity stocks to die.
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yup, i will not be buying anything this week. at least till after the QE is announced, which is thurs. nvm the fact that goldenagri now very cheap and at its term low. reducing risk more important than maximising profit in times of uncertainty.
even if goldenagri this qtr not good, there is still next qtr. i dont really see a reason for commodity stocks to die.
Singapore stock market retreated this week. Straits Times Index (STI) had its second consecutive weekly drop.
Market should continue to be cautious next week as investors remain uncertain about the outcome of US Congressional Election and FOMC meeting. What makes this FOMC meeting more uncertain is that a second round of quantitative easing may be announced. While market expects more quantitative easing from the purchase of more US Treasuries and perhaps other securities, the quantity to be purchased is uncertain. Market reactions to the results of these events should be hard to predict in the short term. Also investors need also be aware of our Deepavali Friday holiday shortened trading week ahead.
Many Singapore companies shall announce results in the next two weeks. Given the recent rally last month and early this month, much of the good results may already be priced in.
In short, market direction next week may be uncertain hence may be prudent to stay sideline for next week still.
Regards,
I believe we could put the equivalent of five Las Vegases with 140,000 hotel rooms each in five different locations in Asia, and it still wouldn’t saturate demand.
Las Vegas Sands chairman and CEO Sheldon Adelson speaking to Today | June 24, 2010
CPO RM3,061
prIce hIke due tO pOOr harvest [bad weather]
Saturday: 30 10 2010 PHILLIP GLOBAL MARKET DAY HILTON HOTEL
Malaysian Speaker advised:
CPO prIce will ease tOwards RM2,400 ~ 2,500 [2011]
after the Chinese New Year
BullishTempo ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 08:23) Posted:
Keep us posted. website to keep track of palm oil prices. http://palmoil.com/
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 07:37) Posted:
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BullishTempo ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 08:23) Posted:
Keep us posted. website to keep track of palm oil prices. http://palmoil.com/
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 07:37) Posted:
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What do you think is a gd price to buy in ?
Now it's already at its short term bottom.
The last dip was at 0.655 then within 2 days ,it went up to 0.70
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 09:06) Posted:
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monday 9am.
BullishTempo ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 08:57) Posted:
Not sure when Thomson medical will resume trading, but keep a close eye on it.
Ok research and preparations done. Time to go enjoy a good Sunday outing with family.
Have a great Sunday! |
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that site needs subscription.
http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil&months=120
this site shows cpo climbed 38%
http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=IDR&view=1Y
while this shows that USD dropped 6% against indo rupiah over 1 year.
what this translate into is that the price went up by more than 30%.
this is really very good news for the company i guess. they lost 6% in exchange rate, while using it as an excuse to up prices by 38%.
all else equal, i think now we can buy goldenagri when it drops lower.
BullishTempo ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 08:23) Posted:
Keep us posted. website to keep track of palm oil prices. http://palmoil.com/
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 07:37) Posted:
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Not sure when Thomson medical will resume trading, but keep a close eye on it.
Ok research and preparations done. Time to go enjoy a good Sunday outing with family.
Have a great Sunday!
Like I said UOB is a different business entity from OCBC.
Positive analyst prediction for OCBC was released on friday. Read my previous posts.
As to whether to buy on Monday 9am or not depends on market opening conditions.
Write down your game plan and see how close the market reacts to your game plan. If it goes as planned, congratulate yourself. If it doesn't, find out what went wrong.
There are so many factors that move markets and individual stocks. So keeping track of market conditions during market hours is very important.
Jfierce ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 03:44) Posted:
Eh... If i'm not wrong.. would the gameplan be buy on opening on Mon and sell after lunch if results are good if there is no bad news about QE2 or OCBC on Mon morning? I still think the surge for OCBC on friday was due to the good UOB results after lunch but general investor sentiments towards OCBC definately better than UOB. Would be much appreciated if can let me know what mistakes i made in this analysis. Thanks!
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:27) Posted:
LoL bladez, you can be a very promising trader in the future. You are improving fast.  Having said that, be prepared for unexpected news during Monday morning. For example, news about QE2 or OCBC. Otherwise your game plan sounds pretty good.  |
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Not to forget our dear GenSp.
Chart pattern looks like consolidation sideways with upside bias.
I am still keeping my position on GenSp in case it runs.
Keep us posted.
website to keep track of palm oil prices.
http://palmoil.com/
bladez87 ( Date: 31-Oct-2010 07:37) Posted:
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http://www.icis.com/Articles/2010/03/12/9342131/se-asia-mek-prices-to-extend-gains-as-supply-runs-dry.htmlfind out the companies that produce this MEK. and buy their stocks. MEK prices doubled within 1 year. i expect the producers of this MEK to report very good profit during this year at least.
it is industrial solvent, meaning confirm need to buy even if price inflate. cause my company suck thumb that the price doubled within 1 year so i realised this is a staple for industrial factories.
On the downside,
being a long-term investor can also mean losing money over many many months
whenever the market is in a down-trending mode...
Which means, one is likely to be in 'depression-mode', psychologically speaking
as long as the downtrend lasts...
Thus, in this context, mastering the art of trading is a compromise if sorts. 
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 21:58) Posted:
Indo Agri just reported earnings which did not meet consensus estimates. Do your research properly before you jump in. 100 lots of OCBC or even UOB can be done with CFDs. But like I said, leveraged trading is not for everybody. High risk, high rewards. But I also know people who got so badly burnt they never recovered. Are you prepared to put yourself through the training and put in the necessary time and effort to train yourself to be a trader? Trader's skills require laser sharp accuracy, excellent timing of exit and entry, solid nerves and fast reaction during market hours. Not to mention hours of research and preparation before market opens. If you are not prepared to do all these, I suggest you keep your money safe in the bank and perhaps invest as a long-term investor.
bladez87 ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 21:44) Posted:
WOW! indoagri what happened sia. super long shadow. high volume, looks set for a strong reversal. but needs confirmation. ocbc too ex to buy, 1 lot commission in and out will take up $50. need it move 5 cents to breakeven.
btw where you get all the news update on individual counters ah BT? i wanna find for news sources too.
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Eh... If i'm not wrong.. would the gameplan be buy on opening on Mon and sell after lunch if results are good if there is no bad news about QE2 or OCBC on Mon morning? I still think the surge for OCBC on friday was due to the good UOB results after lunch but general investor sentiments towards OCBC definately better than UOB.
Would be much appreciated if can let me know what mistakes i made in this analysis.
Thanks!
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:27) Posted:
LoL bladez, you can be a very promising trader in the future. You are improving fast. Having said that, be prepared for unexpected news during Monday morning. For example, news about QE2 or OCBC. Otherwise your game plan sounds pretty good.
bladez87 ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:18) Posted:
this would explain why the surge after the release. 1st round of profit taking over liao, pre closing surge again. retail will probably buy in on monday morning, causing it to move up again, but i suspect pre lunch will profit taking. since ocbc also got good analysis, then due to the moving of funds from uob to ocbc, pre release will go up in anticipation, post release will cause a surge if exceed expectations like UOB and fast profit taking, due to the rise prior to the release. ending expected to be same like UOB. that is my guess on monday's movement. BT is my game plan same as yours?
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Good blessing for all sifus for your good investment liao. Cheers
Wow UOB posted good profit... going to surge liao.... expected DBS and OCBC will surge also.... All in the same business...BT great that u bought OCBC...
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:27) Posted:
LoL bladez, you can be a very promising trader in the future. You are improving fast. Having said that, be prepared for unexpected news during Monday morning. For example, news about QE2 or OCBC. Otherwise your game plan sounds pretty good.
bladez87 ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:18) Posted:
this would explain why the surge after the release. 1st round of profit taking over liao, pre closing surge again. retail will probably buy in on monday morning, causing it to move up again, but i suspect pre lunch will profit taking. since ocbc also got good analysis, then due to the moving of funds from uob to ocbc, pre release will go up in anticipation, post release will cause a surge if exceed expectations like UOB and fast profit taking, due to the rise prior to the release. ending expected to be same like UOB. that is my guess on monday's movement. BT is my game plan same as yours?
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Your chart should also include inflation rate. Normally dollar depreciation, means higher inflation (more money around to buy stuff) and therefore higher commodity prices.
If QE2 happens, we can expect more money to flow into Indonesia to buy up the palm oil. Palm oil traders will probably want to use that extra cash from QE2 to stock up on palm oil, and sell it at a higher price to the market later on. Inflation therefore happens, and palm oil prices will rise significantly.
Unless Indonesia blocks capital inflow, which is highly unlikely, the prospects of palm oil stocks remains very rosy.
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:56) Posted:
There are many ways to restrict capital inflow. One way is to raise capital tax on stock profits or property sales profits. Details not out yet. Tracking of palm oil price rise Vs US dollar depreciation is a good idea. You can do up a chart on this? We want to compare and see if the palm oil price rise is rising higher comparatively than the rate of depreciation of the US dollar. We will then know if profits is rising faster than dollar depreciation or otherwise. QE2 is in tentatively in the billions not trillions. This news was released last week Wednesday and resulted in global sell-down, because QE2 was already priced into the stock prices before that.
bladez87 ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:32) Posted:
no la. internal auditor by name. go there also nv do much 1 cause inexperienced. so still learning. quite terrible at accounting frankly. but taking up accounting & finance degree part time now. financial savvy i would think so , since i interested in stocks since young, but started out as fundamental investing in poly, resulted in a 80% loss in pennies in NS, now learning technical from you. prior to my current job i was a insurance agent, so had a little touch with mutual funds and financial planning. by restricting capital inflow, what do they mean? US fundhouses are not allowed to buy china stocks? if we can track the palm oil prices since the weakening of the US dollar, we might have a clearer pic on how goldenagri profitability will be affected. QE2 broken into packages within period of 6-9 months. total of 2trillion. if we go by 3 packages, that will be 600 billion per quarter. big or small?
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There are many ways to restrict capital inflow. One way is to raise capital tax on stock profits or property sales profits. Details not out yet.
Tracking of palm oil price rise Vs US dollar depreciation is a good idea. You can do up a chart on this? We want to compare and see if the palm oil price rise is rising higher comparatively than the rate of depreciation of the US dollar. We will then know if profits is rising faster than dollar depreciation or otherwise.
QE2 is in tentatively in the billions not trillions. This news was released last week Wednesday and resulted in global sell-down, because QE2 was already priced into the stock prices before that.
bladez87 ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:32) Posted:
no la. internal auditor by name. go there also nv do much 1 cause inexperienced. so still learning. quite terrible at accounting frankly. but taking up accounting & finance degree part time now. financial savvy i would think so , since i interested in stocks since young, but started out as fundamental investing in poly, resulted in a 80% loss in pennies in NS, now learning technical from you. prior to my current job i was a insurance agent, so had a little touch with mutual funds and financial planning. by restricting capital inflow, what do they mean? US fundhouses are not allowed to buy china stocks? if we can track the palm oil prices since the weakening of the US dollar, we might have a clearer pic on how goldenagri profitability will be affected. QE2 broken into packages within period of 6-9 months. total of 2trillion. if we go by 3 packages, that will be 600 billion per quarter. big or small?
BullishTempo ( Date: 30-Oct-2010 23:22) Posted:
Oh bladez, you are an auditor? So you should be quite good with numbers and quite financially savvy? Yes, you are right about the forex losses. However conversely, a weak US dollar also tends to push up commodity prices because of inflation effect, so it kind of cancels out the forex effect. It only depends on which has a greater effect, the rise in palm oil price or the weak US dollar. I have to do more research on this, but Golden Agri is an attractive trade I have to admit, especially since it is so cheap. QE2 will be positive for stock market for at least 6 months depending on the size of the QE2 package. If bad news on Tuesday/Wednesday, eg. no QE2 or too little, better run for your lives. As to popping of bubble, governments will not let that happen. China is already restricting capital inflow. Singapore unlikely to do that yet. Just follow the news closely on this. |
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