Is the third time the charm?

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CHAPEL HILL, N.C. (MarketWatch) — For the third time in two weeks, blue chips are back to the level to which they rose at their April high.

On both prior occasions, of course, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJIA 11,150, +31.56, +0.28%) retreated later in the session and ended up closing below the gauge’s April high of 11,205.03.

Will today’s attempt be more successful? And what will it mean for the stock market if the Dow fails for a third time?

The conventional wisdom is that today’s attempt represents a make-or-break moment for the rally. After all, goes the rationale, a third failure in a row indicates that the rally is getting rather long in the tooth.

But at least some advisers see a silver lining in how long it has taken the Dow to eclipse its April high. Among this group is Jack Schannep, editor of TheDowTheory.com, who has one of the better stock-market-timing records over the last decade among the nearly 200 tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest.

“The longer it takes for the Dow to close above its April highs,” Schannep argues, “the more vigorous should be the breakout. Breaking through this resistance level should bring some welcome press coverage and attention to the fact that the market would be up some 15% off the summer lows and over 70% above the March 2009 lows.”