SPC   

SPC

Given my negative outlook of US that is set to worsen, my investment portfolio is still zero. However I agree with Chinkiasu view that SPC earnings outlook for this year is likely to be good.

My views are neutral. I also see no relevance of referencing outside SPC. 

 

Mani, On this issue of TA and FA. If I remember correctly I think you and Singaporegal bought Wing Tai at about $1.50? That was about a year ago. I am not sure if you guys still have it as Wing Tai is now $3.48  

 

Have both TA and FA skills

 

jkbk007, did you have a big chunkof your saving in SPC? I think so...hehehe...good luck bro.

 

Singaporegal,

The market is indeed a complex market that is highly chaotic in nature. When you posted your TA prediction for SPC, I did not came in comment that your prediction is wrong shortly after your message because it was quite tame. I still enjoy the frequent TA prediction that you post and hope that you would continue to do that for SPC.

The stronger comment came in only because of how I saw Mani strongly objected to fundamental analysis. More importantly, as a staunch follower of SPC, I hope to share with SPC investors on what I know.

Cheers jkbk

 

oil prices up , this counter up on monday.

 

This is the reason why trading/investing in the market is not as easy as ABC.

 

Like DaJieJie, I very quickly dump when the price movements tell me I am wrong...

I don't feel the least bit ashamed or stubborn about it at all...
If I am wrong, I am wrong... I just obey the beastly market...
It's that simple for me...

 

idesa168,

The 'feeling' part is very important in a volatile trade.  Something no words can describe - it's all your experience forming up in your subconscious mind to execute that trade.  Traders termed that as intuition and some as emotion.

btw, my recent entry for SMRT was 1.67SGD.  No chance to unload at today's opening 1.76SGD since I didnt place it on queue. Will use the indicator/s to unload OR mebbie 'feeling'. hehe.  Talk to you on SMRT thread for any progress.

Have a good weekend~

 

Hi jkbk007,

Yah.... I remember that I made a wrong call for SPC sometime back. I thought it would fall but it rose instead. This isn't surprising because I interpret what the chart tells me at a point in time. However, things may suddenly change in the business environment or market conditions that affect the price trend.


This happens frequently for TA people. That is why cutting loss is important to people like me. Bailing out quickly is a matter of survival.


Cheers!

 

Hi Kilroy...I am back, finally! Although I had left the country, I did not leave the STI! I did not get to see the last part of the closing today. But I just did a while ago, last 5 mins was the killing! Ney, I don't think I will get into SPC for the time being. I was quite confident in my last trade of $5.85 to $6.10, but I dun think I will be that confident this time, NO FEELING LAH, joking! Perhaps I will get my feeling back if it stays at $5.90 for a while. Will see, will see! Cheers....BTW, I tried my luck at SMRT today, entry at $1.72, target $1.83 in the range as you mentioned. See got luck or not...hehehe!

 

Jus nice for idesa168's return. 5.85SGD entry again? hehe.

 

I just checked my post of 4th August, and I quote

"assuming the RM for 3Q07 & 4Q07 is conservative $4... this works out to be profit of 4 x 1.51 x 140000 x 180 / 515.582 million which is equal to 29.5cts. We gave earlier estimated Ouyong upstream contribution at 9.8cts (6,000 bpd x 70 (assume crude price $70 net extraction cost $20 x1.51 exchange rate to S$) x120 / 515,582). Together with the already in the bag eps of 56cts for 1H07, the most conservative yr07 eps will be 56+29.5+9.8 we have a eps of 95.3cts which at 8x PE will be $7.62... here I have not set aside admin costs but I also did not factor trading profits and the current upstreams etc..

 now based on fundamentals... with margin even at $6, surely that Merry Lynch (lynching SPC) analyst seems to me to be pushing some agenda when he says it is not worth the current price... if not he is talking thro his rear...
 

 

i agree JBK007..  and even if we agree to the $6 margin, as we have calculated before it still translates to a eps of say etc etc....  pls see our earlier posts.. the price is still above 7.0..  I think they are just trying to talk down the price so that they can .... et etc  in any case todays price has got nothing to do with fundamentals anymore... it is simple sentiments.. i.e fear..

 

 

Usually I would read institution report with care. Typically their info is late. In particulat the info about refining margin is late. Refining margin has since rebounded somewhat in the last 2 weeks or more.

 

 

Merrill Lynch - Least Preferred Stock

Catalysts

�� Catalyst 1: Refining margins have more than halved from highs of US$13/bbl seen in May 2007, however SPC?s share price has not reflected this downward movement in margins.

�� Catalyst 2: Lack of drilling activity this year has been disappointing. SPC, with strong ambitions to expand upstream, has been unable to drill any wells of significance this year as its position as a non-operator in its exploration blocks has meant that its destiny is ultimately in other companies? hands. The market has yet to see any announcement regarding Kikeh, its first well drilled in June this year in Indonesia.

�� Catalyst 3: Risk of expensive M&A. The company?s increased upstream focus has led it to take a ~8% stake in Cue Energy of Australia. Cue, or any upstream company in a US$65/bbl oil price environment, is unlikely to be bought cheaply and there is a high risk that any acquisition will have to be made at a P/E higher than that of SPC?s of 9x for 2007E.

Risks

�� Risk 1: Upside risk from margins due to weather. Hurricanes Dean and Erin have threatened refineries in the Gulf of Mexico this year but ultimately did not do any damage. With the hurricane season only ending in November, there is a possibility that other hurricanes may knock out GOM refineries and thus cause margins to spike due to supply disruptions.

�� Risk 2: Increased market risk/volatility may see investors turning to safe havens, so stocks such as SPC, which has relatively stable cashflows may appear more attractive. In addition, its dividend yield of 5-6% may provide downside support.

�� Risk 3: Earnings season for 3Q not expected to be a bad one. Despite earnings that will be sequentially worse, refiners are expected to report slightly stronger (or flat at worst) 3Q results on a year-on-year basis.

 

Actually, there is nothing to compare between "TA" and "FA"...

When one says "compare TA and FA",  it is just like saying compare "Map" and Geography"...

That's rather absurd... because one is an indicator while the other is a host of vast amounts of quantities of information, some known, some unknown, some unknowable, etc...

So why compare the two when "TA" is simply the interpretation of the actual price action of buyers and sellers?

Thus TA people must as far as possible close their ears to 'fundamentals' talk. Otherwise, their judgement will be clouded and thus they commit trading errors.

 

hi slimsk, now in Joberg... a quick post to say your SPC investment gona be alright... you can rest easy like me... will post later.. got another plane to catch.. auroir

 

Sorry guys, supporters of SPC, the tide turns on me quite fast...hehehe. I am out already as I sensed buying dries up and selling starts kicking in. Managed to sell @$6.10. Will revisit again. Cheers.

 

TA & FA are both applicable at different times of the trading period. However, I see that these TWO methods of predicting the future share price movements are only applicable to "peaceful time". When the mkt force of FEAR sits in, all these have to put aside and one have to sail along the wave if one wants to survive in this turbulent. I guess by now I am known as the kopi$$ man. I capitalise on human fear these period when all sells and when the selling were overdone, I went in to pocket a little of kopi $$ and exit before the next wave down. I would say I had been quite successful ducking in and out of SPC without getting caught but once with a nominal loss as compared to the gains I had made so far...Now what I see the future of SPC, still bright, but volaitility is still there. Although the share price is "quite" settle, but please take note of the volume being very thin. The drop of DOW of -280 pts and the following day (yesterday) surge +247 pts with also very thin volume, hence I see volatile in the days a head until the FED has a clearer direction that the investor starts coming in again or out for good. I may be wrong saying these...I see SPC trading in a band of $5.90 to $6.40 in the coming days before advancing to $7.00 in NOVEMBER. I had made a paper gain now with SPC but not decidingly firm whether to stay or not, all depends on the mkt force now. I will let the mmkt decide for me in the coming days....Gotta go now, I am holiday lei...hehehehe!!!