Biosensors   

Is Biosensors a good buy?

Anyone know why BIG is buying Treasure Solutions Ltd???

Who are the shareholders of Treasure Solutions Ltd???

BIG did NOT announce anything about this acquisition except for the notice of meeting.

 

 

 

I already sold my Biosensors last Friday.

bishan22      ( Date: 04-Sep-2011 21:49) Posted: Hope to join at 1.20-1.25 tomorrow.  alexchia01      ( Date: 31-Aug-2011 15:59) Posted: Buy Biosensors again today. Hopefully, this time can break higher. Stop-Loss at $1.260. Immediate Resistance at $1.330. T.P. is $1.40.

 

Hope to join at 1.20-1.25 tomorrow. 

alexchia01      ( Date: 31-Aug-2011 15:59) Posted: Buy Biosensors again today. Hopefully, this time can break higher. Stop-Loss at $1.260. Immediate Resistance at $1.330. T.P. is $1.40.

 

On Friday, Biosensors re-test the resistance at $1.33 and closed at $1.315 with LOW volume of 1.82 million shares traded.

A black candle sticks with long lower shadow similar to “Hanging man” affirms on the weakness of the rally and pullback will be expected.

RSI & MACD are bullish as RSI trend upwards.

Important Resistance of Biosensors: $1.33

Immediate Support of Biosensors: $1.25

Currently prices are supported by 20/50/100 days MA.

Prices have consolidating .................. READ MORE

 

 

Buy Biosensors again today.

Hopefully, this time can break higher.

Stop-Loss at $1.260.

Immediate Resistance at $1.330.

T.P. is $1.40.

 

Biosensors manufactures medical devices, producing drug-eluting stents used to widen narrowing arteries, critical care catheter systems, and blood pressure transducers.

Our Equities Team has picked out this stock to be a Growth Gem. We define a growth Gem as follows:

1. Strong growth in Sales relative to its industry for the past 5 years (13% CAGR* for Biosensors)
Significance: Receiving increasing business from customers

2. Strong growth in Earnings from Operations relative to its industry for the past 5 years. (9% CAGR for Biosensors)
Significance: Recurring earnings from core business is increasing

3. Strong growth in Profit Margin relative to its industry for the past 5 years. (53% CAGR for Biosensors)
Significance: Operations are improving even as sales increase, expenses decrease

4. Strong growth in Free Cash Flow relative to its industry for the past 5 years. (40% CAGR for Biosensors)
Significance: The amount of free cash to pursue future growth opportunities is increasing

5. Total number of Analyst Coverage is less than median of its industry.
Significance: The less analyst coverage, the less people know about it – undiscovered gem

*CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate

Biosensors meets all the above conditions. What about technical analysis? Let’s take a look at today’s chart.

View Full-Sized Image

Biosensors Daily Chart With Fibonacci Retracement

Not too bad. Biosensors enjoyed a 47% run up in the early half of this year, and has been consolidating ever since. This Growth Gem has weathered the recent downturn pretty well, supported by the 50% retracement level.

 

Buy Biosensors.

Kind of like what I see.

Stop-Loss at $1.245.

T.P. is $1.365.

 

On Friday, Biosensors re-test the support at $1.25 and closed at $1.26 with LOW volume of 6.048 million shares traded.

A black candle sticks with long upper indicates prices attempt to rebound on the support of $1.25 but failed to close higher.

RSI & MACD are turning bullish as RSI perform a up tick on Friday.

Important Resistance of Biosensors: $1.34

Immediate Support of Biosensors: $1.25

Currently prices are resisted by 20/50/100 days MA.

Prices have............. READ MORE

 

 

Fund sold ~0.75M shares @1.235-1.28/share. Panic? Redemption? Fat Finger? Buy High-Sell Low Strategy? After all fund managers are also human!!!


10-08-2011

1.	Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :

	Direct	Deemed
No. of shares held before the change	0	121,238,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0 %	9.01 %
No. of shares held after the change	0	120,833,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0 %	8.98 %

tiptop123      ( Date: 04-Aug-2011 20:44) Posted:   Bought another ~13.4M shares @ $1.24-1.38/share in 6 weeks.    29-07-2011 1. Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :   Direct Deemed No. of shares held before the change 0   120,250,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 8.94 % No. of shares held after the change 0   121,590,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 9.04 % tiptop123      ( Date: 19-Jun-2011 11:26) Posted:   Wow! They bought another ~13.3M shares @ $1.22-1.29/share in 2 weeks.    15-06-2011 1. Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :   Direct Deemed No. of shares held before the change 0   107,007,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 7.97% % No. of shares held after the change 0   108,107,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 8.05 %

 

 

Bought another ~13.4M shares @ $1.24-1.38/share in 6 weeks. 


  29-07-2011

1.	Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :

	Direct	Deemed
No. of shares held before the change	0	120,250,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0 %	8.94 %
No. of shares held after the change	0	121,590,000
As a percentage of issued share capital	0 %	9.04 %

tiptop123      ( Date: 19-Jun-2011 11:26) Posted:   Wow! They bought another ~13.3M shares @ $1.22-1.29/share in 2 weeks.    15-06-2011 1. Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :   Direct Deemed No. of shares held before the change 0   107,007,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 7.97% % No. of shares held after the change 0   108,107,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 8.05 % tiptop123      ( Date: 03-Jun-2011 23:51) Posted:     They have bought ~13.7M shares since 27 April 11, for $1.28-1.40 a share. Why are they so confident? Do they know something that we don't?   30-05-2011  1. Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :   Direct Deemed No. of shares held before the change 0   93,520,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 6.97 % No. of shares held after the change 0   94,764,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 7.06 %   27-04-2011  1. Holdings of Substantial Shareholder , including direct and deemed interest :   Direct Deemed No. of shares held before the change 0   76,751,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 5.74 % No. of shares held after the change 0   81,045,000   As a percentage of issued share capital 0 % 6.06 %

 

Sorry, it was 29th of July  2011 that    FMR LLC bought 1.34 mln BIOSENSORS shares, raising holding to 121.59 mln shares

allright      ( Date: 04-Aug-2011 09:07) Posted: On the 27th of July 2011,  FMR LLC bought 1.34 mln BIOSENSORS shares, raising holding to 121.59 mln shares investor      ( Date: 03-Aug-2011 22:31) Posted: Biosensors hit an intra day low of 1.30, corresponding to its 50 day mva,  closing at the day's high. Technically, the stock looks remarkably resilient. Resistance at recent high  of 1.39, does not look very formidable. If cleared, the 1.41 high should be within reach, and possibly breached  as well. On the downside, if the recent low of 1.26 were to be violated, with high volume, it may signal the beginning of a more serious correction. Also, a point to note - in the recent Qtrly conference, 3 new analysts were present, ie Deutche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and our old friend Credit Suizze. A possble catalyst for the stock to clear resistance would be an 'initial coverage' by any one of these new analysts. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

On the 27th of July 2011,  FMR LLC bought 1.34 mln BIOSENSORS shares, raising holding to 121.59 mln shares

investor      ( Date: 03-Aug-2011 22:31) Posted: Biosensors hit an intra day low of 1.30, corresponding to its 50 day mva,  closing at the day's high. Technically, the stock looks remarkably resilient. Resistance at recent high  of 1.39, does not look very formidable. If cleared, the 1.41 high should be within reach, and possibly breached  as well. On the downside, if the recent low of 1.26 were to be violated, with high volume, it may signal the beginning of a more serious correction. Also, a point to note - in the recent Qtrly conference, 3 new analysts were present, ie Deutche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and our old friend Credit Suizze. A possble catalyst for the stock to clear resistance would be an 'initial coverage' by any one of these new analysts. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

Biosensors hit an intra day low of 1.30, corresponding to its 50 day mva,  closing at the day's high.

Technically, the stock looks remarkably resilient. Resistance at recent high  of 1.39, does not look very formidable. If cleared, the 1.41 high should be within reach, and possibly breached  as well.

On the downside, if the recent low of 1.26 were to be violated, with high volume, it may signal the beginning of a more serious correction.

Also, a point to note - in the recent Qtrly conference, 3 new analysts were present, ie Deutche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and our old friend Credit Suizze.

A possble catalyst for the stock to clear resistance would be an 'initial coverage' by any one of these new analysts.

Not a call to buy/sell. 

 

Details of Normura's recommendation

Action: Raising TP following strong 1Q FY12 results
We raise our target price to SGD1.76 (from SGD1.59) and our earnings
estimates by 7-23% over our forecast period to reflect strong 1Q FY12
results. A key reason for the earnings lift is the strong market share gains
in Japan and continued progress in Biomatrix sales globally. We reiterate
our BUY rating for the stock.
Catalyst: Further gains in Japan, pending approvals
Japan will be a key earnings driver for Biosensors as Terumo achieves
higher market share there. The strong momentum in the 1Q results also
shows that Biomatrix is gaining acceptance globally. Other catalysts that
could further rerate the stock include CE mark approval for BioFreedom,
SFDA approval in China and strong clinical trial data for BioFreedom when
new data is released at the end of this year.
Valuation: Trading below our SOTP-derived TP of SGD1.76
Biosensors is trading below our sum-of-the-parts derived TP of SGD1.76.
Current valuation of 16x FY12F P/E and 12xFY13F P/E is undemanding,
in our view, given its strong growth prospects and enhanced balance
sheet. We expect the group to embark on M& A to further strengthen its
position in the DES space and other product adjacencies.

Good Luck

 

Nomura  has upped Biosensors' target price to 1.76. Report dated 01st Aug 2011.

For Info.

 

 

According to Terumo's presentation, Nobori was launched on 5th May 2011 so the licence contribution is for nearly 2 months.  Further when a new product launches there is always some demand from " stocking up" so it is hard to tell now how much of the incremental $10m in the 1QJun11 Qtr would be continuing sales for future quarters - could be more or could be less.  I would wait for at least 6 more months before making an assessment.


I find that the 30% market share reported by Terumo very encouraging.  This should grow in future years because it is the only Japanese made DES. My guess is 50% to 60% would be achievable.

As for the licensing percentage, the Biosensors declined to reveal the exact number.  If you look at the Terumo presentation for FYE Mar2012, they sold about 6 bil yen, roughly US$75m.  Taking Biosensor's licensing revenue of US$17.2m and dividing, we get about 23%.  However we must bear in mind Biosensors also receive licensing income from other companies (albeit not very much).

 

I love Biosensors.

Currently, my Best performing counter.

May hit a resistance at $1.40, but it's ok.

I believe it would break through quite easily.

 

For those who are wondering just how much percentage of the revenue, that Terumo is paying to Biosensors for their sale in Europe, well, some info released by Terumo themselves, has help to clear the air.

Terumo stated that since the launch of the Nobori, they have accumulated revenue of 10 billion yen (as at end mar 2011) , or approx US$125m, taking 80 yen as 1 US$.

IF you accumulate the licensing fees that Biosensors has earned in end Mar 2009, end mar 2010, and end mar 2011, the fees are US$5m, US$9.09m and US$17.17m respectively, totalling US$31.26m.

Taking US$31.26m divided by US$125m, the percentage of revenue paid by Terumo to Biosensors, is 25 %!. (Plus or minus a few points due to FX rate, etc)

Now, we all know that Terumo negotiated with Biosensors, in 2008, and paid US$40m upfront, so as to lower the % of revenue paid, but the licensing agreement for Japan's sales was NOT negotiated, meaning that the percentage of revenue from Japan is HIGHER than 25 % !.

Now that is definitely, a plus for Biosensors.

Again, just some conjecture. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

Just went to Terumo's website to see their results' presentation.

Nobori was launched on 5th May 2011. According to the presentation, Nobori achieved a mkt share of 30 % in the mth of June !.

ALso, Terumo has forecast that total sales of Nobori for yr ending mar 2012 will be 20 billion yen, ie taking 80 yen to 1 US dollar, the forecast sale will be approx US$250m !.

Assuming that Nobori's  royalty contribution to Biosensors  in Europe for Q1 (ie end Jun 2011) is approx US$5m, that means that Nobori's  royalty from  Japan's sales  is approx US$10m, and that is only for 1 and 1/2 mths of the qtr !

If  sales remain the same, then the royalty contribution from Japan's sales for the  next 3   qtrs will be US$20m per qtr, adding upto US$60m in royalties from Japan alone for the next 3 qtrs.

THat is, royalties from Terumo for the whole yr to Biosensors will total US$15m (Q1) + US$60m (from Japan for the next 3 qtrs), + US$15m (from Europe for the next 3 qtrs), giving a total contribution of US$95m. (before tax)

I don't know whether my maths is right or not, but OCBC's forecast for net profit for Biosensor's full yr ending Mar 2012 is only US$93m, which looks very, very conservative, when the contribution alone from Terumo is that much. (assumed )

My simplistic view may not be correct. Not a call to buy/sell.

 

same old tactic!!

if they do the same as yesterday, shd close @ 1.38!!