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Why is SembMarine still going up today ?
With no new orders and possible cancellations SCM is walking on an icy path. The PE is at low teens of abt 12-13X, which is still epensive, as the E part will deteriorate in next 12 -18 months. even by P/B valuation (which is @2.247X) the stock is still expnesive compared to other battered down stocks. Take your profits now and maybe re-enter only when the stock hits $1 and below.
Sry didnt see properly my mistake, but small ads. Usually is half page or full page for semb corp standard, cause big companies. Maybe they are cost cutting bad times. Anyway, i not vested in this counter just want to share my view on method on assessment shipyard outlook. Find this method quite good to see its short term future. Did notice that when paper start to do mass recruitment, stock also will move.
bucky_bunny ( Date: 04-Nov-2008 21:29) Posted:
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FYI, SembMarine is indeed hiring. Please look up last Saturday's Recruit on ST.
One way to tell if media is not overselling it backlog as semb corp claim is. If there is a huge backlog claim, why are they not doing big recruitment to pull retrenchment workers into the yards. Building a rig need at least 2000 workers a day. If they claim backlog in the next few year, now will be a good time to do mass recruitment. To work in a yard for newcomer require to sign at least 2 year bond.
Flip many papers didnt see any recruitment recently. The last time i remember when the shipyard stocks move upward trend, the newspaper is full of recruitment ads by shipyard. News complainting shipyard cannot get local people to work in yard. Remember that period, when the price keep shooting upward. - (This is the best way to guage the shipyard health, not the report)
Want to see singapore export will be up or down, everytime u travel along keppel road near world trade centre see the container stack up high high and many activities inside. U will know export figure is up or down.
This news can show only it is still doing alright in crisis. Probably the strength of US dollars and dropping of steel price is in their favour.
Singapore's Sembcorp Marine Q3 net jumps 73 pct
Tue Nov 4, 2008 4:25am EST
SINGAPORE, Nov 4 (Reuters) - Sembcorp Marine (SCMN.SI: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz), the world's number two builder of offshore oil rigs, said on Tuesday its third-quarter net profit rose 73 percent as it worked through its large backlog of orders and recorded higher margins.
The firm said it expects ship repair demand to remain strong amid global tightness in yard capacity.
"The Group is in a strong net cash and balance sheet position and expects the current year's overall performance to be stronger than 2007," the firm said in a statement.
Sembcorp Marine earned S$140.9 million ($95 million) in the three months to September compared with S$81.4 million a year earlier.
The Singapore company said its order book stood at S$9.9 billion at the end of the third quarter, including S$5.5 billion of new orders since January this year.
Sembcorp Marine's large orderbook will ensure its yards remain busy until 2012. (Reporting by Saeed Azhar; Editing by Jennifer Tan)
PRESS RELEASE
ANOTHER RECORD QUARTER: 3Q 2008
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PATMI increased by 73% to $140.9 million• Operating Profit grew by 92% to $142.1 million
Wow....66% fall in one month ...must put this in my watchlist.
In btw, any reason for the drastic fall beside the gloomy market???
One month ago clsoing price was $3.44 and yesterday is $1.23.
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Volume | Adj Close |
| 10/23/2008 | 1.32 | 1.43 | 1.31 | 1.36 | 15944000 | 1.36 |
| 10/22/2008 | 1.48 | 1.52 | 1.34 | 1.41 | 24396000 | 1.41 |
| 10/21/2008 | 1.53 | 1.62 | 1.52 | 1.52 | 20921000 | 1.52 |
| 10/20/2008 | 1.61 | 1.62 | 1.39 | 1.48 | 35064000 | 1.48 |
| 10/17/2008 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.57 | 1.57 | 20046000 | 1.57 |
| 10/16/2008 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.69 | 1.76 | 46445000 | 1.76 |
| 10/15/2008 | 2.25 | 2.25 | 2.02 | 2.04 | 21449000 | 2.04 |
| 10/14/2008 | 2.61 | 2.73 | 2.32 | 2.35 | 17358000 | 2.35 |
| 10/13/2008 | 2.09 | 2.6 | 2.03 | 2.4 | 16873000 | 2.4 |
| 10/10/2008 | 2 | 2.08 | 1.95 | 2 | 11585000 | 2 |
| 10/9/2008 | 2.15 | 2.3 | 2.13 | 2.24 | 13744000 | 2.24 |
| 10/8/2008 | 2.25 | 2.31 | 2.06 | 2.09 | 9573000 | 2.09 |
| 10/7/2008 | 2.31 | 2.55 | 2.3 | 2.39 | 10085000 | 2.39 |
| 10/6/2008 | 2.59 | 2.59 | 2.35 | 2.38 | 12401000 | 2.38 |
| 10/3/2008 | 2.83 | 2.87 | 2.67 | 2.75 | 14168000 | 2.75 |
| 10/2/2008 | 3 | 3.08 | 2.86 | 2.96 | 7380000 | 2.96 |
| 9/30/2008 | 2.66 | 3.06 | 2.33 | 2.99 | 13011000 | 2.99 |
| 9/29/2008 | 3.2 | 3.26 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 3873000 | 3.11 |
| 9/26/2008 | 3.35 | 3.37 | 3.22 | 3.25 | 3570000 | 3.25 |
| 9/25/2008 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.32 | 1773000 | 3.32 |
| 9/24/2008 | 3.44 | 3.45 | 3.37 | 3.4 | 4823000 | 3.4 |
| 9/23/2008 | 3.46 | 3.52 | 3.38 | 3.44 | 3141000 | 3.44 |
By TA, STI is not yet bottom. From what i see on chart is range 1300-1400
;)
Livermore ( Date: 25-Oct-2008 06:51) Posted:
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I doubt STI has bottomed out
HLJHLJ ( Date: 25-Oct-2008 01:44) Posted:
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Technical analysis fails 80% of the time? Have you seen past charts? That would be proof if it works or fail. If it fails, it won't be a topic of discussion at all.
kawaiiboi ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 11:49) Posted:
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Sorry. Don't know how to post chart. But I do have the 5-yr STI. From channel method, it seems that it is bottoming out.
HLJHLJ ( Date: 25-Oct-2008 01:28) Posted:
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Here is one. I've drawn the channel line for you (my first time using channel ...LOL) Not sure if it is right but looks like bottom from channel method.
sjgoblin ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 17:23) Posted:
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The bottom line is that TA is not a prophecy that will confirm come true, often not even close, so don't rely too heavily on it. Whether you want to interpret it as failure or the interference of other factors, will depend on whether you're a TA fan or not. I personally don't see any misconceptions here.
Does anyone know where to find charts showing stock prices/ihndex levels that go back longer than 2 years? I sure could do with knowledge of 2003 and 1997 levels. Thanks in advance.
hi kawaiiboi,
just to correct a misconception about technical analysis:
it's not true that TA fails. Where it 'fails', is because most pre-empt the signal and jump in, when in fact there may never have been any confirmatory signal at all.
The aim of TA is not to get the exact lowest or the exact highest price (that's human greed): the aim of TA is to identify high probability set-ups, where your chances for gain are greater.
And the common misconception about supports and resistances; just because a tech has given a certain price zone as support, it does NOT mean the price will automatically ping off it. after all, if every support is a buy, and every resistance is a sell, no one needs to hold a day job.
Supports/Resistances are merely points to watch out for. price-volume action is what determines if it is a buy or not, at that support.
And it is in the reading of price-vol action that most fail. Because most do not actually see the charts: they only see what they want to see.
Yes. JJ well said. 99cents shop. Great singapore sales.
At this time, should not worry too much about charting, look at the NTA.
Thanks. MA will just give a rough guide on the trend. Currently, it is still downtrend. Note that MA is lagging a bit, so sometimes we have to pay slight premium just to be sure. In other words, it might trend up after some buying. But at least we are not buying at high. BTW, MA cannot detect sudden crash or surge up. So if now, there is a big rally, high chance MA will miss it. So we have to balance.
I have this problem as well. Normally, acted too fast. On hindsight, if i follow MA closely, i would have done better, esp for these 2 mths. If you look at all the MA charts for these 2 months, we should not be buying at all because it is downtrend. Also the MAs (short and medium term, maybe 5 to 14 days) did not cross at all. For those who dare to invest short, they will be rewarded!!
Also, if you look at historical charts, even at the start of bull, if we pay slight premium, we are still ok. In other words, buy on uptrend. This is momentum theory (Newton's Law??).
I'm changing tactic slightly as well. Want to buy on momentum now. Avoid falling knives on bears. During bears, i only buy good blue chips. I've learnt a bit from all the sifus here as well. But diff methods apply in diff situation. Not easy..
crimson ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 09:15) Posted:
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Its better not to predict maximum drop.. cuz its never accurate.. but if you were to see the impact of the then 1997 crisis and todays one... definately most of the public will denouce it will drop further than 1997.. thus bottom is of course higher that that... in 99% confidence level...
To me technical analysis fails 80% of the time... in accurately predicting even the recently prediction of 1800 is too optimistic.. Therefore i rather you go to use Public sentiments and statistic to guage confidence level of the minimium level cuz at the end of the day.. its HUMAN who cause the min and max level to reach..
goondoo ( Date: 24-Oct-2008 10:26) Posted:
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We are reaching the point of maximum fear soon, but the fall in this last stage is horrifying as seen in the last 2 mth from STI 2700 to STI 1600+.
It may even go down to ridiculous levels like 1200 during Apr 2003 SARs/Iraq war, but then we can buy distressed blue chips at extreme undervalued prices.
And remember STI drop from 2500 in mid1996 to 800 in Oct1998, only to rebound back to 2500 by early2000.
Human psychology is working against investing now, it is extremely frightening to see what u put in, to lose 10% in value everyday, and up to 50% in 1 to 2 weeks.
U need nerves of steel and extremely strong conviction as well as long term holding power (at least 2 to 3 years), but the rewards can be extremely high.
But I think we need to buy in stages like Warren Buffet, maybe go in 20% capital for every drop of 150 to 200 pt from now on.