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Nobody knows for sure where is the bottom. It might just take off from here or there may be another leg down before turning around. So I would advise to get in slowly and not doing it at one go! Current valuation is very condusive to turn around, price trading below NAV which is about 86¢. I am not surprised for Property counters to trade below NAV, but for a technology to trade at this price, I felt it's tempting. This is just my analysis, you may like to check it out before getting in. Cheers.
IMO.. 2nd half and following next year will see tis counter perform.... as per their projects tat i know of.. as for M&A, it depends on how market reacted to it, if this is any. I would come back to this counter mayb around june for review.
Not vested.
I am accumulating for long term. Looking into the historical price of all technology counters, it was on down trend since 2000-1. Technology play had been cyclical and I am anticipating a turn around. However, I am not sure it will dip further. I think 12 months going forward, it should reach $1.00 if US does not go into recession.
I bought end of Nov at $1+ and didn't cut loss
Any recommendations should I hold on to it even though I can still hold on to it for another few yrs?
Thanks!
0148 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: JP Morgan cuts Chartered Semiconductor (C27.SG) target to S$0.60 from S$0.90, keeps Underweight rating; target price downgrade due to questions over 65nm profitability, increase in break-even utilization rate to around 85% from company''s target of 65% due to price erosion, unfavorable product mix. Says company to remain loss-making in near-term; "despite running at high utilization on 200mm, Chartered is likely to be loss making" in 1H and at most break-even in 3Q, turning slightly profitable in 4Q. Shares now +0.6% at S$0.84.(KIG)
Today's up may be due to overall market sentiment..........
cos' there are positive reports out there recently about Chartered and it has always been a counter that is being monitored by many...with such a news...when it dropped so much from more than a dollar down...it is always psychological to pick it up as many will hope it to rebound up to tt level
Why are ppl touching this counter these 2-3 few days?
I wonder if the stock price performance in the NASDAQ matches the performance in SGX closely?
Thanks Singaporegal. You are right that the last 2 trading days volume were 7 & 8 million respectively. I shall monitor this counter a couple more days. This counter surged in US mkt with double volume. Hope it's a renew interest after CHRT closed for trading in Singapore on Friday. Cheers.
Hi ideasa168,
If you look at the previous 2 days when this counter was in the red, the volumes were 7.5 and 8.8 million respectively. That was why mentioned that 11 million isn't especially large.
Also, I usually look at the Acc/Dist (which is price and volume based) chart for a counter. If there is a sudden change in sentiment, it is usually reflected that. For this counter, I don't see much change yet.
Prepare for a surge again on Monday. Nasdaq currently trading in RED but CHRT is positively green, +15% (US$6.22). Converting the ADS is about S$0.87. If things do not go wrong tonight at the US, we might see CHRT trading around this price comes Monday, up another 4 cents.
For those who bought CHRT at around $0.90 will be hopping to exit with little loss after the meltdown that brought everyone on our knees. As for those who took position on Thursday @$0.77 should be happy by now.
Singaporegal, today's surge with volume of about 11 million is much higher than last 30 trading days which was about 3-5 million on average. Did you mean something that I do not understand?
Looking at the TA charts, the large rise today may not be sustainable over next week.
The volumes are not overwhelmingly large.
http://www.remisiers.org/research//dailyex.pdf
Chartered Semi: Blinding Me With Numbers
01 Feb I have been an armchair critic of Chartered Semiconductor for many years. But it's been a while since I looked at the stock in great detail, so when they released 2007 earnings this morning I wanted to check on how things had improved. If at all.
From the outset I want to point out that I don't have an inherent bias against the company. On the contrary. Their transparency and disclosure have improved markedly since the PR disaster of a rights issue a few years ago. Recall, the company had denied for weeks rumours it was going to have a steeply-discounted rights issue, only to then announce one. It took a visit to the offices of the Securities Investors' Association (Singapore) to straighten that one out.
Conducting an interview with CEO Chia Soon Hwee for CNBC more than two years ago, I witnessed an incredible fighting spirit in a sector where the profit margins are so thin one could measure them in microns, just like the silicon wafers it produces. When I visited their headquarters in Ang Mo Kio I got a real sense this company was going places. They ought to be congratulated for sticking it out against all odds and commercial sense.
So, should I stop being an armchair critic?
Let's look at the evidence:
1. Candid assessment of the situation. I like that Chartered calls a spade a spade. No sugar coating of difficult times. Top marks for telling it like it is.
2. Specific guidance. Most SGX-listed companies could learn a lot from the very specific guidance Chartered gives. Clearly this is because Chartered is also Nasdaq listed, and US investors expect this. But whatever the motivation, their fairly precise guidance is a huge improvement on the lame-duck "barring unforeseen circumstances, we expect to still be breathing next year"-type of guidance most SGX-listed companies provide.
3. Lots of numbers, but what do they mean? You can see the numbers for yourself ? revenue down 4.2%, profit boosted substantially by a tax credit. But to what extent are they a true reflection of the company's financial health?
4. The numbers that really matter. You have to turn to the last page of the earnings document to get those: page 17.
? Cash from business operations: positive cashflow of US$521 mln compared to US$479 mln last year.
? Cash from buying and selling equipment (investing): negative cashflow of US$420 mln compared to cash outflow of US$845 mln.
? Cash from going to the bank to get and repay loans (financing): negative cashflow of US$205 mln compared to positive cashflow of US$386 mln last year.
Bottom line: they had US$100.8 mln more cash flow out of the company than they had coming in.
Their cash and equivalents (=loans, overdrafts, term deposits, etc) balance dropped to US$719 mln. In other words, the company has a pulse, but it's still bleeding.
And yet, among Average Selling Prices, Capacity Utilisation and all those other metrics, there's nary a mention of cashflow in the rest of the document. While blinding me with all sorts of details, there is not enough emphasis on the numbers that really matter.
I think I will remain an armchair critic a little longer.
Mark Laudi, who would really like to see them generate more cash than they have to spend or invest, so their profitability promises don't ring so hollow.
01 Feb I have been an armchair critic of Chartered Semiconductor for many years. But it's been a while since I looked at the stock in great detail, so when they released 2007 earnings this morning I wanted to check on how things had improved. If at all.
From the outset I want to point out that I don't have an inherent bias against the company. On the contrary. Their transparency and disclosure have improved markedly since the PR disaster of a rights issue a few years ago. Recall, the company had denied for weeks rumours it was going to have a steeply-discounted rights issue, only to then announce one. It took a visit to the offices of the Securities Investors' Association (Singapore) to straighten that one out.
Conducting an interview with CEO Chia Soon Hwee for CNBC more than two years ago, I witnessed an incredible fighting spirit in a sector where the profit margins are so thin one could measure them in microns, just like the silicon wafers it produces. When I visited their headquarters in Ang Mo Kio I got a real sense this company was going places. They ought to be congratulated for sticking it out against all odds and commercial sense.
So, should I stop being an armchair critic?
Let's look at the evidence:
1. Candid assessment of the situation. I like that Chartered calls a spade a spade. No sugar coating of difficult times. Top marks for telling it like it is.
2. Specific guidance. Most SGX-listed companies could learn a lot from the very specific guidance Chartered gives. Clearly this is because Chartered is also Nasdaq listed, and US investors expect this. But whatever the motivation, their fairly precise guidance is a huge improvement on the lame-duck "barring unforeseen circumstances, we expect to still be breathing next year"-type of guidance most SGX-listed companies provide.
3. Lots of numbers, but what do they mean? You can see the numbers for yourself ? revenue down 4.2%, profit boosted substantially by a tax credit. But to what extent are they a true reflection of the company's financial health?
4. The numbers that really matter. You have to turn to the last page of the earnings document to get those: page 17.
? Cash from business operations: positive cashflow of US$521 mln compared to US$479 mln last year.
? Cash from buying and selling equipment (investing): negative cashflow of US$420 mln compared to cash outflow of US$845 mln.
? Cash from going to the bank to get and repay loans (financing): negative cashflow of US$205 mln compared to positive cashflow of US$386 mln last year.
Bottom line: they had US$100.8 mln more cash flow out of the company than they had coming in.
Their cash and equivalents (=loans, overdrafts, term deposits, etc) balance dropped to US$719 mln. In other words, the company has a pulse, but it's still bleeding.
And yet, among Average Selling Prices, Capacity Utilisation and all those other metrics, there's nary a mention of cashflow in the rest of the document. While blinding me with all sorts of details, there is not enough emphasis on the numbers that really matter.
I think I will remain an armchair critic a little longer.
Mark Laudi, who would really like to see them generate more cash than they have to spend or invest, so their profitability promises don't ring so hollow.
Posted this on 25 Jan 2007 under another Chartered thread. My opinion has not changed.
Aiyah, I won't waste time with this counter.
Since its listing, it turned in profit only 2 or 3 quarters. I believe its made more cash calls than quarterly profits. Its a $$$ drainer....and they are 2-3 technology generations behind the Taiwanese and Koreans.
Until some sunlight appears at the end of this tunnel, I will steer clear of it.
I remembered how I envy an ex-colleague when the price was at about $1.70 (which he bought it at $1.00). Now even at 80 cents, I dare not buy... I hope this ex-colleague is no longer holding and has profited from it.
bottom ar? 52 weeks target 50 cents la.
yup not sure where the bottom is :(
ya, now tech stocks are not in play and market condition is bad.
Thus dont think will have any upside for this counter for now ba
Next level - $0.70 !!