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World Markets
North and South American markets are mixed today. The Bovespa is up 0.72% while the S& P 500 gains 0.07%. The IPC is off 0.24%.
North and South American Indexes
HSBC: Don't Sweat An Early Taper
Impressive non-farm payrolls. The US added far more jobs than expected over the last three months. That means tapering is back on the table. True, inflation is still low. But officials are itching to ease off the gas. After this summer's market rout in Asia, partly sparked by fears of tapering, one might be forgiven for worrying about another slump. But things aren't quite so dire. The region should withstand the approach of tapering better this time around. This doesn't mean a Fed policy shift will not cause wobbles. It's just that these will be more easily digested than before.
That was a pretty convincing payrolls print. The US economy also grew at an impressive 2.8% in the third quarter. Sure, the latter was flattered by inventories and growth may again slow into year-end. But, all considered, America is holding up much better than feared. Our chief US economist, Kevin Logan, long had a fat circle drawn around the December FOMC meeting. He still thinks there is a good chance that tapering may be announced next month. Even if not, the scale-down of Fed asset purchases appears a lot closer now than it did at the height of the budget tussle in October.
For investors in Asia, this may not be welcome news. After all, when expectations of a September tapering intensified over the summer, markets sold off heavily. Especially Indonesia and India, more dependent on capital inflows than others, got pummeled. The thinking is that higher interest rates in the US will slow, if not reverse, the stream of money pouring into the region, knocking down growth that has come to rely more and more on leverage. With Fed tapering now back on the table, should investors run for cover?
Not necessarily. There are a number of reasons to be a little more optimistic about Asia's ability to digest gradual tapering over the coming year. Start with what caused this summer's sell-off. First, interest rates in the US jumped over 100bp, being unusually depressed to begin with. Now, the starting point is much higher not quite where rates peaked over the summer, but certainly well above where they stood earlier in the year.
Second, it wasn't just prospects of the Fed's tapering that spooked markets this summer. China, too, looked decidedly shaky. Interest rates in the interbank market shot up in June and economic momentum fizzled. Talk of a hard-landing was abundant. Since then, the Mainland has delivered a convincing rebound both in lending and growth. Yes, structural reforms are urgently needed to put things on a more sustainable path. But, for the time being, China looks a lot more robust than a few, short months ago. This should support confidence even if the Fed starts to taper.
Next, there is the matter of further easing by the Bank of Japan and the ECB. The latter cut interest rates only last week. With inflation falling faster than anticipated, our chief European economist, Janet Henry, believes the central bank still has an easing bias (although it's not entirely clear what tools it may deploy to give the Eurozone economy another boost). As for the BoJ, it continues to pump liquidity at an unprecedented pace. This, we still believe, will increasingly reverberate across Asia, especially ASEAN, over the course of 2014. Watch bank lending, not just portfolio flows. What's more, officials, according to Izumi Devalier, HSBC's Japan economist, may add further stimulus starting in the second quarter.
Then there is the issue of resilience. For all the taper jitters, the region has held its own in the past few months. Talk of a 1997 style crisis was always overdone. Some are more vulnerable than others, of course. Korea looks as robust as ever, with record reserves and a sturdy trade surplus. In ASEAN, the picture is more mixed. The Philippines remains among the best performers, with a now weaker currency being a positive. In Malaysia and Thailand, more needs to be done in terms of reforms, but recent financial jitters have failed to deliver a terminal blow.
Indonesia and India face still the biggest challenges. And yet, there are signs that these markets have withstood taper-talk much better than feared. In the former, while growth slowed and the current account deficit remains a challenge, foreign direct investment is holding up and slower, though not collapsing, growth should ultimately help to dampen import demand. In the latter, a lot of adjustment has already occurred. Yes, politics and reform implementation remain key, and rising price pressures still pose headaches. Still, investors appear to give India the benefit of the doubt.
None of this is to say that emerging Asia can ease up on reforms. One of the less recognized benefits of this summer's volatility was that it impressed on officials the need for faster structural adjustment. The pruning of costly subsidies was put on the table, and other measures, such as opening economies to more direct investment and boosting infrastructure, are at least being discussed. Early tapering could help to maintain the pressure, even as markets react a little more calmly this time around. That would be a good thing.
STI sakit. No energy.
Market Recap
A better-than-expected job reports pushed US equities higher on Friday.
All but three Dow components gained with JPMorgan (+4.5%) leading the pack. The index gained 0.9% for the week. The S& P 500 was led by the financials and consumer discretionary sectors, and the index closed just below its 29 Oct record close. For the week, the S& P 500 gained 0.5%. The NASDAQ Composite fell 0.1% for the week for its second straight weekly loss....
WTI Crude for Dec added 40 cents, or 0.4%, to end at US$94.60 on while Dec Brent gained US$1.66, or 1.6 %, to settle at US$105.12/barrel. For the week, WTI lost a cent while Brent lost 0.8%.
Gold for Dec delivery lost US$23.90, or 1.8%, to end at US$1,284.60/ounce on tapering expectations while Dec Silver fell by 34 cents, or 1.6%, to end at US$21.32/ounce. For the week, gold and silver lost 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively.
Implications for Singapore
The strong rebound on Wall Street last Friday night and the positive Nikkei start (up 1.2% now) are likely to boost local sentiments this morning.
As a recap, the STI finally cracked the 3200 psychological support after a 0.8% retreat in the last session this suggesting a more bearish stance going forward.
But with today's tone likely to show some near-term improvements, we could potentially see the index heading back to test the 3200 (now support-turned-resistance).
A failure to overcome this level will see the index falling to the immediate base at 3155 (minor trough) next. Below that, the subsequent support lies at the 3120 key troughs.
Market Recap A better-than-expected job reports pushed US equities higher on Friday. All but three Dow components gained with JPMorgan (+4.5%) leading the pack. The index gained 0.9% for the week. The S& P 500 was led by the financials and consumer discretionary sectors, and the index closed just below its 29 Oct record close. For the week, the S& P 500 gained 0.5%. The NASDAQ Composite fell 0.1% for the week for its second straight weekly loss. WTI Crude for Dec added 40 cents, or 0.4%, to end at US$94.60 on while Dec Brent gained US$1.66, or 1.6 %, to settle at US$105.12/barrel. For the week, WTI lost a cent while Brent lost 0.8%. Gold for Dec delivery lost US$23.90, or 1.8%, to end at US$1,284.60/ounce on tapering expectations while Dec Silver fell by 34 cents, or 1.6%, to end at US$21.32/ounce. For the week, gold and silver lost 2.2% and 2.4%, respectively. Implications for Singapore The strong rebound on Wall Street last Friday night and the positive Nikkei start (up 1.2% now) are likely to boost local sentiments this morning. As a recap, the STI finally cracked the 3200 psychological support after a 0.8% retreat in the last session this suggesting a more bearish stance going forward. But with today's tone likely to show some near-term improvements, we could potentially see the index heading back to test the 3200 (now support-turned-resistance). A failure to overcome this level will see the index falling to the immediate base at 3155 (minor trough) next. Below that, the subsequent support lies at the 3120 key troughs.
Didier Sornette: How we can predict the next financial crisis
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=C_eFjLZqXt8
STI is going to drop this week too.. Base on 5 trading days
SynapseX ( Date: 11-Nov-2013 06:47) Posted:
Although the US markets staged a strong rebound, the STI doesn't look good.
Spencer Li
Synapse Trading - Mind over Markets |
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Although the US markets staged a strong rebound, the STI doesn't look good.
Spencer Li
Synapse Trading - Mind over Markets
World Markets
North and South American markets finished mixed as of the most recent closing prices. The S& P 500 gained 1.34%, while the Bovespa led the IPC lower. They fell 0.93% and 0.36% respectively.
North and South American Indexes
WanSiTong ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 09:04) Posted:
Nov 08 4:09pm:
Good news is good news! Stocks bounced back Friday thanks to a much better-than-expected jobs report. More
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Nov 08 4:09pm:
Good news is good news! Stocks bounced back Friday thanks to a much better-than-expected jobs report. More
Hehehee!
Now is sector counter result play!!!
😃 😃 😃 😃 😃 😀 😀 😀 😀 😀
Cheers!!!!
bishan22 ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 08:47) Posted:
Hendak at 3200 again. Watchlist all red wan. Hahaha.
Peter_Pan ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 08:13) Posted:
| back to normalisation once more. |
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Hendak at 3200 again. Watchlist all red wan. Hahaha.
Peter_Pan ( Date: 09-Nov-2013 08:13) Posted:
| back to normalisation once more. |
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back to normalisation once more.
Nov 08 10:21am:
Good news is good news! Stocks rose early Friday, following a better-than-expected jobs report. More
non-farm payroll goodo goodo cute cute Y U NO jialat jialat...very ruan man..! cannot have a normal relationship with mr market anymore..compass haywire liao
Peter_Pan ( Date: 08-Nov-2013 07:29) Posted:
| maybe see how china hk react later bah. tonite non-farm hope jialat jialat. lol |
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A photo of Pope Francis kissing a man suffering from a disease is tugging at heartstrings around the world.
After he greeted the pilgrims at the conclusion of the November 6
general audience in St. Peter's Square, Pope Francis paused for a few
moments to embrace a man with with painful disease neurofibromatosis,
kissing him and giving him a blessing, the Catholic News Agency
reported.
