Straits Times Index   

News Update!

(Reuters) - Standard & Poor's cut its rating outlook for Italy to negative from stable, citing weak growth prospects and increased risks it would fail to slash its debt mountain.

The downward revision, which raises the risk of a downgrade of Italy's sovereign rating, may heighten fears that contagion from Greece's and other European countries' debt crisis could be spreading to the euro zone's third-largest economy.

" In our view Italy's current growth prospects are weak, and the political commitment for productivity-enhancing reforms appears to be faltering," Standard & Poor's said in a statement released early on Saturday.

It said the fragility of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's center-right coalition government meant such reforms were unlikely to be pushed through anytime soon.

" Potential political gridlock could contribute to fiscal slippage. As a result, we believe Italy's prospects for reducing its general government debt have diminished."

Standard & Poor's affirmed its 'A+' long-term and 'A-1+' short-term sovereign credit ratings on Italy, which is slowly recovering from its worst economic downturn since World War Two and has one of the world's largest public debts.

Its outlook revision implies a one-in-three chance that the ratings could be lowered within 24 months.

S& P has often taken a bleaker view of the state of Italy's economy than other ratings agencies.

Moody's has an Aa2 rating for Italy and Fitch an AA-, so S& P has Italy two notches below Moody's and one below Fitch.

Italy has weathered the financial crisis better than some of its euro zone's peers but it has been one of the bloc's most sluggish economies for more than a decade.

Many analysts say unless it adopts reforms needed to sharply improve its growth potential, it has little chance of meeting its medium-term target to cut debt.

" If low economic growth persists, the fiscal outcome will, in our view, likely significantly miss the government's targets and therefore may derail the debt-reduction plan," S& P said.

Italy hardly grew in the first quarter, with gross domestic product (GDP) edging up only 0.1 percent, compared with rises of 1.5 percent in Germany and 1.0 percent in France. Crisis-hit Greece grew 0.8 percent.

another one ?

 

ok thanks!

btw, it's election in spain :)

hpong5      ( Date: 22-May-2011 18:07) Posted: Should be bad in the short-term, good in the long-term. rotijai      ( Date: 22-May-2011 17:14) Posted: good or bad news

 

Should be bad in the short-term, good in the long-term.

rotijai      ( Date: 22-May-2011 17:14) Posted: good or bad news ? hpong5      ( Date: 22-May-2011 16:39) Posted: May 22, 2011 Japan quake reconstruction may cost up to $227 billion Fishing boats damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami are collected in Soma, Fukushima prefecture. Japan on Sunday said that the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction. -- PHOTO: REUTERS TOKYO - JAPANESE Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Sunday the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen to 15 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction from the devastating earthquake that hit the country's north-east in March. The government may need to issue bonds to meet the costs but should not do so without coming up with ways to pay for redemption, Mr Yosano said, signalling that some form of tax hike would be inevitable. 'I understand those who say we need to issue bonds for quake (reconstruction). But we shouldn't borrow recklessly without thinking about how to pay the money back,' Mr Yosano told a television programme. 'If we were to issue bonds for reconstruction, we need to decide in how many years we would pay the money back and how. That's important in maintaining market trust in Japan's fiscal state,' he said. Japan is reeling from the triple disaster of an earthquake, tsunami and prolonged nuclear crisis, with the government struggling to find ways to pay for the biggest reconstruction effort since the aftermath of World War Two. Damage from the quake pushed Japan into recession with the economy shrinking much more than expected in the first quarter and set to contract again in April-June as power shortages and supply chain disruptions hit factory output. -- REUTERS

 

good or bad news ?

hpong5      ( Date: 22-May-2011 16:39) Posted: May 22, 2011 Japan quake reconstruction may cost up to $227 billion Fishing boats damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami are collected in Soma, Fukushima prefecture. Japan on Sunday said that the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction. -- PHOTO: REUTERS TOKYO - JAPANESE Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Sunday the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen to 15 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction from the devastating earthquake that hit the country's north-east in March. The government may need to issue bonds to meet the costs but should not do so without coming up with ways to pay for redemption, Mr Yosano said, signalling that some form of tax hike would be inevitable. 'I understand those who say we need to issue bonds for quake (reconstruction). But we shouldn't borrow recklessly without thinking about how to pay the money back,' Mr Yosano told a television programme. 'If we were to issue bonds for reconstruction, we need to decide in how many years we would pay the money back and how. That's important in maintaining market trust in Japan's fiscal state,' he said. Japan is reeling from the triple disaster of an earthquake, tsunami and prolonged nuclear crisis, with the government struggling to find ways to pay for the biggest reconstruction effort since the aftermath of World War Two. Damage from the quake pushed Japan into recession with the economy shrinking much more than expected in the first quarter and set to contract again in April-June as power shortages and supply chain disruptions hit factory output. -- REUTERS

 

May 22, 2011 Japan quake reconstruction may cost up to $227 billion Fishing boats damaged by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami are collected in Soma, Fukushima prefecture. Japan on Sunday said that the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction. -- PHOTO: REUTERS TOKYO - JAPANESE Economics Minister Kaoru Yosano said on Sunday the government may need to spend 10 trillion yen to 15 trillion yen (S$227 billion) for reconstruction from the devastating earthquake that hit the country's north-east in March. The government may need to issue bonds to meet the costs but should not do so without coming up with ways to pay for redemption, Mr Yosano said, signalling that some form of tax hike would be inevitable. 'I understand those who say we need to issue bonds for quake (reconstruction). But we shouldn't borrow recklessly without thinking about how to pay the money back,' Mr Yosano told a television programme. 'If we were to issue bonds for reconstruction, we need to decide in how many years we would pay the money back and how. That's important in maintaining market trust in Japan's fiscal state,' he said. Japan is reeling from the triple disaster of an earthquake, tsunami and prolonged nuclear crisis, with the government struggling to find ways to pay for the biggest reconstruction effort since the aftermath of World War Two. Damage from the quake pushed Japan into recession with the economy shrinking much more than expected in the first quarter and set to contract again in April-June as power shortages and supply chain disruptions hit factory output. -- REUTERS

 

Consumer Spending Probably Eased in April: U.S. Economy Preview By Timothy R. Homan May 22 (Bloomberg) -- Consumer spending probably cooled in April as higher food and fuel prices forced Americans to cut back on other items, economists said a government report this week will show. Purchases increased 0.5 percent, the smallest gain in three months, after climbing 0.6 percent in March, according to the median estimate of 66 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before a May 27 Commerce Department report. Other data may show business investment, the stalwart of the recovery, kept growing. Manufacturers like Deere & Co. are benefiting from gains in spending on equipment and software, while retailers like Wal- Mart Stores Inc. are reporting slower U.S. sales as households feel the pinch of grocery and energy bills. Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is among Federal Reserve officials who predict the acceleration in commodity prices will be temporary. “Consumers are allocating more of their dollars toward fuel,” said Russell Price , a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit. “Manufacturing has been holding up pretty well considering the rise in gasoline prices” and the supply-chain disruptions in Japan, he said. The Commerce Department report will also show incomes rose 0.4 percent, the seventh straight monthly gain, after a 0.5 percent increase in March, according to the survey median. Higher prices for necessities like food and energy are weighing on purchases of less essential items. The average cost of a gallon of regular gasoline averaged $3.81 in April after $3.54 the prior month, according to AAA, the nation’s biggest motoring organization. Less Pressure Cost pressures have started to wane this month. Prices at the pump peaked at $3.99 on May 4, the highest since July 2008, and declined to $3.89 on May 19. Sales at U.S. Wal-Mart stores open at least a year dropped 1.1 percent in the first quarter, the eighth decline in a row, the world’s largest retailer said last week. Customers are still struggling with economic uncertainty, buying more generic items rather than their more costly name-brand counterparts, executives said in a May 17 pre-recorded call. American manufacturers are faring better than consumers as increasing demand from emerging economies like China supplements gains in business spending. Deere , the world’s largest farm-equipment maker, last week raised its fiscal 2011 earnings forecast and posted second- quarter profit that beat analysts’ estimates amid increasing demand for agriculture and construction equipment. Equipment Orders A May 25 Commerce Department report will show that orders for durable goods, excluding volatile transportation bookings, increased 0.5 percent in April after a 2.3 percent jump the prior month. Overall demand fell 2.5 percent, economists said, because of a drop in airplane orders at Boeing Co. One part of the world’s largest economy that continues to struggle is the housing market, particularly as foreclosures mount. Pending home sales , or contract signings for existing homes, fell 1 percent in April after a 5.1 percent increase the prior month, economists forecast the National Association of Realtors will report on May 27. Sales of new homes , which account for about 5 percent of the market, were little changed at a 300,000 annual pace in April, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg ahead of a May 24 report from the Commerce Department. New houses have sold at an average 294,000 rate in the first three months of the year, compared with a record-low 323,000 for all of 2010. Shares of machinery makers have outpaced homebuilders since the beginning of the year. The Standard & Poor’s Supercomposite Machinery Index has climbed 5.1 percent compared with little change for the S&P Supercomposite Homebuilder Index. Jobs, Sentiment Gains in employment and higher stock values are outweighing gas prices when it comes to confidence among Americans, according to data from Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan. The group’s final sentiment index for May is projected to climb to 72.4, the highest in three months, from 69.8 at the end of April, according to economists surveyed ahead of the May 27 report. The pace of growth during the first quarter was stronger than previously estimated, economists said figures from the Commerce Department on May 26 will show. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent rate, up from the 1.8 percent initially estimated, according to the survey median. The GDP estimate is the second of three for the quarter, with the final release scheduled for June, when more information becomes available.

 

singapore australia style instead of singapore america style liao.

let see the president election next year how liao

 

WoW !! Senior Run Road liao and we have 7 elected opposition members against traditionally PAP cabinet...

Will the new faces live up to expectations and work as hard and dilligent  from those who had choose to retire/stepdown from political scene ? ??

Another HOT Issue " Review of political salary

NB: A pay cut is necessary for political salaries, It does not make much sense in pegging to private sector compensation.

First is about transport fare hike, Second is about education fee hike, third is about housing hike and fourth is about foreigner invading and snatching local " rice bowl" . Fifth is about loose policy to upgrade foreigner status as long as they are willing to pay income tax.

It's all about four corner table that money collect goes into different pocket But one must remember is How big  the hole was  digged.

Case:

1) We have 7% GST in exchange for some " ang bao" from singapore like gst rebate.

2) We have many many things increase in price and our salary remain the same.

3) We knew that singapore is small and we still encourage more foreigners to take up citizenship.

4) We understood that housing is a big issue everywhere and we choose to build room suitable for 3 pax floor area.

5) We work hard in civilian live and olso regularly participate in national service till 55 years old.

 

 

 

By Andrew Loh

Coming on the back of the People's Action Party's worst electoral performance since Independence, the sweeping changes to the Cabinet is a step in the right direction, despite what some PAP critics may say.

Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong should be congratulated for the " radical" changes he has made. They are indeed much needed, and they bring a breath of fresh air and fresh momentum to his promise of change.

Especially positive is the stepping down of former Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew from the Cabinet. While one would not and should not begrudge or dismiss the significant and historical role Mr Lee has played in Singapore's history, in recent years, and even by his own admission, his views have been " out of date" on certain important issues.

To continue to have him in the Cabinet, and Mr Lee wields considerable influence, would be to adhere to his ideas and ideologies which seem to be increasingly stuck in the past. His retirement from the decision-making inner circle of government is thus a welcome move.

Eight other ministers have also relinquished their portfolios and will assume life as backbenchers in the new Parliament.

While these changes of personnel may signal a " fresh clean slate" for PM Lee, they are but only the beginning and for now at least cosmetic changes. Singaporeans, who made their displeasure over government policies loud and clear during the May elections, want to see changes to policies. Anything short of this and the government will continue to be held in contempt and PM Lee's authority and the promise he made during the hustings will be called into question.

Biggest issues

At the top of the list of concerns are the rising cost of living, housing and the government's seeming arrogance in talking down to Singaporeans.

While the government has reiterated that the best way to address the cost of living issue is to create value jobs for citizens and for Singaporeans to continue to upgrade their skills, the government would want to introduce new initiatives which would protect employment for locals. This has been one of the deepest worries of Singaporeans — that their jobs are not secure and that they are paid low wages because of competition from foreign workers. Addressing this concern will be PM Lee's task as it cuts across a whole spectrum of policies, including manpower, public housing, and the Central Provident Fund (CPF).

The very unpopular Mr Mah Bow Tan, who was at the centre of intense criticisms during the elections for his housing policies, has given way to Mr Khaw Boon Wan. Mr Khaw, who helmed the Health Ministry, now has the job of looking into the many grouses Singaporeans have with regards to housing, particularly flats provided by the Housing and Development Board (HDB).

One hopes, however, that Mr Khaw will not repeat the mantra of his predecessor — that HDB flats are " affordable" when they clearly are not.

Needed humility

While different groups of Singaporeans have different issues which they want the government to address, one particular area which many agree the government could do better in is the way the government communicates its policies. Indeed, the term " arrogance" has been uttered frequently in the last few years whenever Singaporeans speak of the ruling People's Action Party (PAP) government.

Some members of the PAP have recognised this and have said that the PAP government should be more humble. Indeed, it must be if it wants to repair the damage done in the last five years. However, serving with humility is but only one aspect which it should look into. What is of more import are the policies themselves.

And in this, it is noteworthy that no minister has thus far admitted the failings of any policy. Neither has the Prime Minister. Singaporeans, while appreciative of the Cabinet reshuffle and the retirement of nine ministers, will expect the PM to announce new committees to gather views from the public or even to make bolder changes to certain policies.

Otherwise, the promise of change will be nothing more than a public relations exercise — and the PAP will pay a heavier price than it did in GE 2011.

If, however, the government follows through with its promise of change in a meaningful and substantial way, come 2016 the PAP will have a more comfortable election campaign than it did the recent one.

So, kudos to PM Lee for having the courage to make such sweeping changes to the make-up of his team. Now, lets see some substance in the coming weeks and months.

Andrew is the co-founder and current editor-in-chief of socio-political website The Online Citizen. He writes frequently on issues which are close to his heart, particularly those affecting the less fortunate, and on politics.

 

虽 然 美 国 股 市 三 日 连 涨 ， 但 市 场 交 投 淡 静 ， 新 加 坡 海 指 因 投 资 者 套 利 而 回 吐 涨 幅 ， 昨 天 微 跌 4点 。

周 四 公 布 的 美 国 首 次 申 请 失 业 救 济 人 数 下 调 ， 但 住 房 销 售 和 制 造 业 活 动 数 据 依 然 疲 软 ， 反 映 美 国 经 济 仍 处 于 低 迷 状 态 。

悉 尼 AMP Capital Investors公 司 投 资 战 略 主 管 奥 利 维 尔 (Shane Oliver)表 示 ： “经 过 三 周 的 抛 售 后 ， 市 场 可 能 已 呈 现 超 卖 。 部 分 美 国 经 济 数 据 呈 现 疲 软 、 对 中 国 紧 缩 政 策 的 担 忧 、 日 本 经 济 衰 退 及 欧 洲 债 务 危 机 ， 将 令 市 场 在 未 来 几 个 月 处 于 动 荡 情 势 。 ”

新 加 坡 证 券 投 资 者 协 会 研 究 公 司 也 提 醒 本 地 投 资 者 ， 外 在 因 素 未 明 朗 之 前 ， 应 持 谨 慎 态 度 ， 避 免 过 度 投 入 股 票 市 场 。

野 村 证 券 也 提 及 ， 潜 在 大 量 资 金 的 流 入 ， 将 令 资 产 泡 沫 的 风 险 加 剧 。 新 加 坡 大 选 后 关 于 生 活 费 、 房 屋 和 移 民 政 策 预 料 将 有 所 调 整 ， 投 资 者 应 调 整 对 新 加 坡 股 市 的 预 期 ， 尤 其 是 房 地 产 股 、 保 健 股 、 交 通 股 和 博 彩 股 。

新 加 坡 海 指 昨 天 开 市 报 3172.81点 ， 全 天 在 3160.27点 至 3176.23点 之 间 徘 徊 ， 闭 市 报 3168.54点 ， 跌 4.02点 或 0.13%。 全 场 交 易 量 近 13亿 股 ， 交 易 额 近 14亿 元 ， 以 189只 上 升 股 对 290只 下 跌 股 。

成 分 股 涨 跌 互 见 ， 以 13只 上 升 股 对 14只 下 跌 股 ， 由 大 华 银 行 、 星 展 银 行 和 云 顶 新 加 坡 领 跌 。

纵 观 一 周 表 现 ， 海 指 共 起 38.09点 或 1.2%。

活 跃 股 方 面 ， 虎 航 跌 2分 报 1.53元 。 集 团 第 四 季 净 利 下 滑 130万 元 报 2230万 元 。 同 时 ， 集 团 也 宣 布 将 收 购 印 度 尼 西 亚 廉 价 航 空 业 者 曼 达 拉 航 空 公 司 (Mandala Airlines)33%股 权 ， 但 未 透 露 交 易 价 。

大 华 继 显 研 究 建 议 “卖 出 ”， 目 标 价 为 1.32元 ； 星 展 银 行 研 究 建 议 “持 有 ”， 未 来 12个 月 目 标 价 从 1.60元 下 调 至 1.50元 ； 联 昌 国 际 研 究 给 予 “表 现 落 后 大 市 ”的 评 级 ， 目 标 价 为 1.39元 。

波 德 国 际 (Portek International)起 2.5分 报 77.5分 。 集 团 截 至 5月 1日 的 订 单 达 4400万 元 ， 达 健 康 水 平 。

荣 南 控 股 (Yongnam)起 0.5分 报 26分 。 集 团 争 取 到 一 项 5000万 元 的 合 约 ， 为 前 政 府 大 厦 和 前 最 高 法 院 改 建 成 国 家 美 术 馆 的 工 程 ， 提 供 钢 铁 框 架 结 构 。 星 展 银 行 研 究 建 议 “买 入 ”， 目 标 价 为 38分 。


Source:《 联 合 早 报 》

 

Business Times - 21 May 2011


China may put the damper on yuan: CLSA

Exploding offshore yuan market a tension point for Beijing

By JAMIE LEE

THE piling bets on yuan appreciation, which have translated to a scorching yuan offshore market, may prompt China to cool it down sooner, a CLSA report this week said.

This comes as some 50-80 billion yuan (up to S$15 billion) worth of speculative money has been estimated to be poured into Hong Kong - the de facto yuan offshore market - in the first quarter, the brokerage noted.

'If the renminbi offshore market continues to explode, in terms of renminbi deposit growth in Hong Kong, (we) guess that Beijing will sooner or later move to dampen it down,' said CLSA. 'The precedent here will be the continuing efforts to constrain QDII (Qualified Domestic Institutional Investors).'

The Chinese central bank's push for financial liberalisation through its yuan offshore market had been derailed earlier by the recent financial crisis - which also brought the free market model under scrutiny - and is a tension point for the Chinese government, which sees it as a threat to political control, CLSA added.

'The political leadership is fundamentally uncomfortable with an open capital account,' the brokerage said.

'It must already be worried that the capital account is dangerously porous, in the sense that it has long been a practical reality that the wealthy and the connected can get their money out of China.'

This concern can only be magnified by market speculation that 32 trillion yuan worth of total household deposits are 'excessively concentrated' among the rich, CLSA said.

Singapore is edging into the offshore yuan market, but in this post-Lehman period, banks such as OCBC and DBS have also warned of the risks and downsides of investing in products such as yuan deposits. These include wide spreads and volatility.

At the same time, with inflation woes abating in the short term, investors may face what CLSA calls a 'manic depressive' mood swing in the Chinese market as focus swings sharply to fears of a slowdown in growth - particularly with the current tightening mode of the government.

'Still, as this is China, with its still command economy-driven banking system, the authorities have complete freedom to turn the liquidity tap back on should they want to,' said CLSA.

'For this reason, (we) would advise investors to view likely growing market chatter about hard landing risks as an opportunity to build positions in domestic stocks,' that include those tied to infrastructure works such as the cement, consumer durables and construction stocks.

Turning to Singapore, CLSA noted that the leadership changes in the wake of this year's elections are a positive signal, and do not harm the long-term bullish view on the growth story, or the Singapore dollar.

'(We) would much rather own the Singapore dollar than the renminbi.'

But CIMB this week downgraded the Singapore market to 'neutral' from 'overweight' amid softening global growth, earnings forecast cuts and potential drags of corporate profits due to policy tweaking after the general election.

'The upcoming hike in the HDB eligibility ceiling will move the sandwich class from over-priced mass-market private properties back to HDB flats,' said CIMB, singling out developers with large mass-market exposure such as Allgreen and City Developments as those which may be hit.

'A marked slowdown in foreign immigration will reduce rental demand, more telling when new completed supply comes onstream in 2013,' CIMB added.

A limit on immigrants would put a dampener on some industries that rely on foreign workers, including construction and shipyards, the brokerage said.

The call to keep public transport fares low also suggests that transport players ComfortDelGro and SMRT may not see fare hikes, which would hit their bottom line.

 

SHARES OF CATALIST-traded Mencast Holdings have seen heavy trading volume after it announced on May 18 it had acquired engineering systems installer Top Great Engineering & Marine.

Mencast -- which makes, supplies and repairs propellers and stern gear for seafaring vessels -- is purchasing Top Great for $24 million. Mencast will pay $9.6 million in cash and satisfy the remaining $14.4 million through an allotment of new Mencast shares via three separate tranches -- “a small price to pay for an accretive deal”, according to Gary Ng of CIMB.

That’s because the acquisition comes with a guarantee that Top Great will achieve net profits of not less than $8 million between May 1, 2011 and April 31, 2013. It Top Great fails to meet the target, it'll have to make good the shortfall in cash to Mencast within six months after the agreed period.

For the year ended Dec 31, 2010, income earned by Top Great before deducting taxes was $4.7 million. In comparison, Mencast achieved a net profit of $8.5 million over the same period, a 20.8% y-o-y rise, on the back of $32 million in revenues, up 21.9% y-o-y.

Analysts say the addition of Top Great will give Mencast the opportunity to tap a larger pool of clients in the region and add margin value with a fuller range of maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO) services to the booming offshore and marine industry.

“This [acquisition] would allow Mencast to create positive synergies, economies of scale and strengthen its value proposition to attract and retain new clientele,” Ng of CIMB points out. “We think that with Top Great being integrated into Mencast, the group would eventually make its foray into overseas markets, which would mean higher margins due to the higher premium the group charges for projects outside Singapore.”

Mencast started out three decades ago as provider of repairs and maintenance services of marine propellers for fishing and bumboats in Singapore. It eventually expanded its client base to include owners and operators of tugboats and ferries in 1993 and extended its capabilities to provide a full range of sterngear equipment and services for local and regional shipyards and ship owners in 2001. In 2008, Mencast, which operates a yard in Tuas, sought a listing on the Catalist.

Last year, in a bid to increase growth, Mencast announced that it would lease 16,200 sq m of land at the waterfront on Penjuru Road to build a manufacturing plant for stern gear equipment and centralise its manufacturing activities for better efficiencies. Mencast expects to complete construction of the plant -- which will be 3.5 times larger than all its existing plants combined -- by year-end. Despite slowing demand for commercial ships given an existing oversupply in the market, Mencast is confident of booking revenues from repeat MRO (Maintenance, repair and operations) contracts from ship owners and expects to see growth coming from the booming offshore sector. The company currently has an order book of about $8 million.

Since the start of the year, shares of Mencast are up by about 10%, closing on May 20 at an all-time high of 45 cents each. But there’s more good news. Ng of CIMB has upgraded his 12-month target price on the stock by 6% to 70 cents apiece despite dilution from the new shares, as the stock is still trading at a 15% discount to its larger peers. At current levels, it has a market capitalisation of just $76.6 million and trades at 8 times earnings.

“This stock is only at the growth stage and has not scaled the high wall of valuation,” Ng writes in a recent report. “[The shares] will climb, and a further re-rating will propel the stock with an upgrade to the Mainboard from its current board.”

 

Gold and Gold Miners are a Strong Buy

 

June is around the corner. Usually, for the  adults, it would be a holiday time with the family and as  for the younger chaps, it is the time to search for jobs becos of graduation. Traditionally, it olso a month which many many finanical articles and stories will be repeated and delivered to the public...

One most recent " fairytale" article is about Gold and the headline goes to China and India again

 

SINGAPORE : Stocks in Singapore ended marginally lower on Friday amid profit-taking ahead of the weekend. The Straits Times Index fell 0.13 per cent or 4.02 points to end at 3,168.54. Volume was 1.24 billion shares. Losers led gainers 269 to 165. DBS dipped 0.81 per cent to S$14.74 and Singapore Airlines lost 0.14 per cent to S$14.44. CapitaMalls Asia declined 2.4 per cent to S$1.64, Global Logistic Properties was down 0.5 per cent at S$2.01, while City Developments slipped 0.7 per cent to S$11.28. Sembcorp Marine fell 0.9 per cent to S$5.34, while Keppel Corp declined 0.3 per cent to S$11.42. Genting Singapore fell 1.4 per cent to S$2.04. - CNA/ms

 

2011年 05月 20日
【 陳 智 偉 ╱ 綜 合 外 電 報 導 】 美 國 第 2輪 量 化 寬 鬆 政 策 （ Quantitative Easing， QE2） 6月 底 將 告 終 ， 續 推 QE3機 會 渺 茫 ， 甚 至 可 能 提 前 升 息 ， 全 球 資 金 派 對 接 近 尾 聲 ， 熱 錢 陸 續 撤 離 亞 洲 股 市 、 回 抱 美 元 資 產 ， 南 韓 股 市 昨 在 外 資 連 6個 交 易 日 賣 超 下 重 挫 近 2%， 整 體 亞 洲 股 市 也 因 缺 乏 資 金 行 情 欲 振 乏 力 。


About QE2...

外 資 賣 韓 股 23億 美 元

據 南 韓 交 易 所 資 料 顯 示 ， 外 資 4月 淨 買 超 韓 股 3兆 韓 元 （ 27.62億 美 元 ） ， 但 5月 開 始 轉 買 為 賣 ， 昨 再 大 賣 3876億 韓 元 （ 3.57億 美 元 ） ， 近 6個 交 易 日 連 續 賣 超 ， 5月 來 淨 賣 超 逾 2.6兆 韓 元 （ 23.94億 美 元 ） 。

新 陽 投 資 證 券 市 場 分 析 師 李 景 修 （ 音 譯 ） 表 示 ， 透 過 4月 聯 準 會 FOMC會 議 記 錄 ， 投 資 人 意 識 到 美 國 即 將 淡 出 流 動 性 支 持 措 施 ， 甚 至 嗅 出 緊 縮 政 策 的 味 道 ， 開 始 趨 避 風 險 。

新 韓 投 資 公 司 市 場 分 析 師 李 宋 衍 （ 音 譯 ） 指 出 ， 4月 大 舉 流 入 南 韓 股 市 的 熱 錢 ， 不 斷 退 回 到 較 安 全 的 美 元 資 產 避 險 。 他 說 ： 「 投 機 熱 錢 對 總 體 經 濟 局 勢 發 展 感 到 不 安 ， 遂 獲 利 了 結 。 」


美 升 息 時 點 可 能 提 前
在 外 資 賣 超 下 ， 南 韓 首 爾 綜 合 指 數 昨 重 挫 1.89%， 收 2095.51點 ， 日 股 日 經 225指 數 也 因 上 季 經 濟 衰 退 嚴 重 ， 下 跌 0.43%， 收 9620.82點 ， 中 國 股 市 也 下 挫 近 0.5%， 惟 新 加 坡 政 府 調 升 今 年 經 濟 成 長 目 標 ， 激 勵 新 加 坡 海 峽 時 報 指 數 強 彈 1%， 其 餘 亞 洲 主 要 股 市 則 欲 振 乏 力 ， 漲 幅 多 不 到 1%。

美 國 Fed昨 晨 公 布 上 月 FOMC（ Federal Open Market Committee 聯 邦 公 開 市 場 委 員 會 ） 會 議 紀 錄 顯 示 ， 多 數 理 事 贊 成 先 升 息 再 出 售 先 前 QE政 策 收 購 資 產 ， 除 非 經 濟 展 望 驟 變 ， 才 有 可 能 續 推 QE3， 顯 示 決 策 輿 論 逐 漸 向 緊 縮 傾 斜 ， 升 息 時 間 點 可 能 較 預 期 提 前 。

金 融 海 嘯 爆 發 後 ， 聯 準 會 為 挽 救 美 國 經 濟 ， 不 僅 維 持 基 準 利 率 在 0~0.25%歷 史 低 點 ， 同 時 祭 出 外 稱 「 印 鈔 救 市 」 的 量 化 寬 鬆 政 策 ， 以 收 購 美 債 等 資 產 壓 低 市 場 利 率 ， 去 年 11月 又 推 出 規 模 6000億 美 元 的 QE2。

 

Singapore raises 2011 growth forecast 

Singapore - Less than a month after it warned of dark clouds looming in the external environment, the Government yesterday revised upwards its outlook for the Singapore economy, forecasting growth of 5 to 7 per cent this year, up a full percentage point from its previous forecast of 4 to 6 per cent.

Mr Kwek Mean Luck, Deputy Secretary (Industry) at the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI), said that, with the manufacturing sector rebounding by 75 per cent on a sequential quarterly basis and the better-than-expected overall first-quarter numbers, 2011 is enjoying a " firm start" and " the economy is on track to deliver higher growth this year compared to what we earlier anticipated" .

Analysts said the upward revision was expected after the MTI released stellar growth rates last month of 23.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent, respectively, on a quarterly and year-on-year basis in its preliminary estimate for the first quarter, beating even the most bullish of private sector forecasts.

The MTI yesterday trimmed the first-quarter growth numbers to 22.5 per cent from the previous quarter and 8.3 per cent from the corresponding period a year earlier.

Analysts called yesterday's full-year growth forecast upgrade conservative, saying that it reflected ongoing risks including the Euro zone debt crisis, tensions in the Middle East leading to high oil prices, and further fallout from the March 11 triple whammy of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis in Japan.

In the PAP's party political broadcast in the run-up to the May 7 General Election, Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong had flagged these risks as some of the " dark clouds on the horizon" among others, such as the US budget crisis and security threats in the region.

On the MTI's upgrade, Citigroup economist Kit Wei Zheng said: " There are no surprises as the strong first-quarter number always carries through to the rest of the year."

The robust growth was spurred by the strength of the biomedical manufacturing cluster and a better-than-expected performance of the service industries.

DBS economist Irvin Seah said strong tourist arrivals in recent months have boosted retail, tourism and the other services segments.

He said: " Spearheaded by the gaming industry, the other services industry is set to take pole position as the fastest-growing segment this year."

Integrated resort operator Genting Singapore, for example, turned to a first-quarter profit of S$305 million in the three months ended March 31 as turnover almost tripled to S$923 million, driven in large part by high-rolling gamblers.

And Mr Seah added that fund flows into Singapore have been strong and will continue to power the financial services industry.

But in a stark reminder that the path ahead may not be all smooth, Japan's Cabinet Office yesterday confirmed that Asia's second largest economy was in recession, with gross domestic product shrinking 0.9 per cent in the first quarter compared with the previous three months, and 3.7 per cent in annualised terms.

HSBC economist Leif Eskesen said Singapore's growth is expected to ease in the near term " partly reflecting a base effect after the rapid sequential growth in Q1, but also as the impact of the elevated oil prices and the calamities in Japan are felt more in Q2."

" Still, barring any escalation of the unrest in the Middle East and an associated jump in oil prices, growth is expected to hold up well and come in at or possibly above potential growth," he added.

 

Business Times - 10 May 2011


Sell in May and go away?

By MICHELLE TAN

(SINGAPORE) Stock market wisdom has it that equity prices tend to go downhill as summer approaches. But is the familiar refrain 'sell in May and go away' based on track record or is it more a self-fulfilling prophecy?

'The month of May spells the peak of the first-quarter corporate reporting season which provides market moving opportunities. This is normally followed by a quieter period in June due to an absence of share price catalysts,' states Tan Chin Poh, deputy head of research at Kim Eng.

Since the start of May, the market has been plagued by a week of indecision and lacklustre trade with many counters seemingly unable to hold on to earlier gains.

'Looking back over the last 26 years, April tends to be a pretty good month for equity investors, with the STI (Straits Times Index) ending the month higher than the previous month in 16 out of the last 26 years. The average gain is 2.7 per cent, second only to December's rise of 3.4 per cent, with 19 months out of 26 as the typical best month of the year. So it seems that could be a reason to sell in May and go away,' says Song Seng Wun, CIMB Securities' economist.

But this is not a given.

Investors who sold in May last year and went away, might not have been so wise in hindsight, as the STI did very well in the months of June and July.

That said, this occurrence was more of an exception than the norm as the full effect of government pump-priming served as a positive catalyst to lift overall sentiment and spur economic growth last year.

Likewise the notion was defied once again in September 2008, when Lehman collapsed, marking one of the worst periods to buy shares.

So what should we expect this year? To date, 2011 has been marked by an environment clouded by uncertainty.

On the political front, there is the unrest in the Middle East and North Africa while financially there are European debt woes. To further exacerbate matters, inflation has also been on the rise globally.

'A casual observation though not academically confirmed is that many 'black swan' style events seem to occur during the May to October period. But because such events cannot be predicted, we can't say if it will happen this year though uncertainty continues to be the order of the day,' notes Roger Tan, head of SIAS Research.

Mr Tan sees key risks in the market to be China's inflation-related problems, the US economic recovery as well as the European debt issue. A blow-up in any of these would likely start a negative chain reaction.

For this earnings reporting season, however, most analysts do not expect any major negative surprises, though the bulk of corporate results are likely to only match expectations.

'Unlike their US counterparts, regional analysts tend to be a lot more optimistic about corporate earnings this year, as evidenced by the constant target upgrades and far fewer downgrades. Nevertheless, a strong US recovery in the second half of 2011 and China's credit easing, on the back of easier GDP (gross domestic product) growth and inflation, could put the pressure on the accelerator. Hence, corporate numbers should also pick up along the way,' comments Alvin Chua, associate director at UOB KayHian.

Going forward, proper investment risk management is probably the best advice, stress brokers and analysts alike.

It is important to look at the fundamentals of the business before buying a stock, as good companies tend to weather most storms over time.

'The notion may have been more relevant to describe past trends and perhaps pertain more to the retail segment. There are trades going on somewhere at all times - a real follow the sun cycle. Therefore, the saying certainly is not as applicable these days,' points out Michael Chan, managing director at BNY Mellon.

 

 

美 聯 儲 局 推 演 退 出 策 略 　 結 束 再 投 資 升 息 賣 資 產 （ 紐 約 19日 訊 ） 聯 邦 儲 備 局 決 策 官 員 上 個 月 開 始 整 合 彼 此 意 見 ， 希 望 擬 定 一 套 策 略 ， 讓 空 前 寬 鬆 的 貨 幣 政 策 退 場 ， 方 法 是 先 結 束 再 投 資 的 政 策 ， 之 後 才 升 息 及 賣 出 資 產 。 聯 邦 公 開 市 場 委 員 會 (FOMC)4月 26-27日 會 議 記 錄 顯 示 ， 幾 乎 所 有 官 員 都 同 意 ， 「 正 常 化 的 第 一 步 」 應 該 是 ， 停 止 去 年 8月 起 再 投 資 抵 押 債 券 到 期 本 金 的 做 法 。 大 多 數 贊 成 先 提 高 短 期 利 率 ， 然 後 再 賣 出 聯 儲 局 名 下 的 債 券 ， 大 部 分 官 員 希 望 ， 預 先 公 告 出 售 資 產 的 時 間 表 ， 並 且 以 調 高 聯 邦 基 金 利 率 作 為 「 積 極 工 具 」 。 這 是 去 年 6月 以 來 討 論 退 場 策 略 最 詳 細 的 一 次 ， 美 國 經 濟 低 迷 ， 促 使 聯 儲 局 主 席 柏 南 克 及 其 同 僚 推 出 第 二 輪 的 量 化 寬 鬆 ， 到 下 個 月 為 止 再 收 購 6000億 美 元 的 公 債 。 4月 聯 邦 公 開 市 場 操 作 委 員 會 會 議 以 來 ， 原 油 價 格 和 金 融 市 場 的 通 貨 膨 脹 預 期 已 經 下 滑 ， 聯 儲 局 退 場 的 壓 力 減 輕 。 但 報 告 也 指 出 ， 討 論 退 場 策 略 不 代 表 「 短 期 內 一 定 開 始 」 緊 縮 。 決 策 官 員 同 意 ， 聯 儲 局 「 中 期 」 得 縮 減 資 產 規 模 (下 個 月 將 達 2.6兆 美 元 )， 並 且 回 歸 到 「 只 有 公 債 」 。 4月 27日 FOMC會 議 結 束 後 ， 柏 南 克 首 度 舉 行 定 期 的 記 者 會 ， 18日 是 記 者 會 後 第 一 次 公 佈 會 議 記 錄 。 聯 儲 局 在 同 一 天 公 佈 理 事 及 地 區 聯 邦 儲 備 銀 行 總 裁 對 經 濟 的 季 度 預 估 。 以 往 是 在 會 議 記 錄 之 後 三 週 才 公 佈 這 項 預 估 。 FOMC 10位 擁 有 表 決 權 的 成 員 中 ， 部 分 人 士 表 示 ， 再 推 出 一 輪 收 購 資 產 方 案 的 先 決 條 件 是 ， 經 濟 前 景 大 幅 改 變 ， 或 者 這 項 前 景 存 有 風 險 。 會 議 記 錄 顯 示 ， 另 外 還 有 「 少 數 」 成 員 認 為 ， 通 貨 膨 脹 風 險 升 高 ， 經 濟 情 勢 演 變 的 方 式 ， 可 能 促 使 FOMC比 目 前 預 期 的 時 間 更 早 採 取 行 動 ， 邁 向 較 不 寬 鬆 的 政 策 。 Source/转 贴 /Extract/: Oriental Daily Publish date:20/05/11