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2701-2720 of 4113
Oil and Gas sector: 1Q11 recap and outlook > > > iocbc
Summary: Most of the companies under our sector coverage reported their
1Q11 results recently, and with the exception of Ezra, Swiber, and
Viking O& M that delivered lower-than-expected net profit, the rest
were in line with our expectations. Both rigbuilders turned in a healthy
set of results, boosted by higher operating margins. As for offshore
support service providers, Ezra’s intention on becoming a global player
in the industry is increasingly evident, though time will be needed for
implementation and execution. Given solid fundamentals in the oil and
gas industry, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT rating for the sector. The
outlook for the rig market remains positive, though Keppel Corporation
[BUY, FV: S$13.00] and Sembcorp Marine [BUY, FV: S$6.30] may see
increased volatility in their stock prices in the short term, depending
on newsflow from Petrobras. Meanwhile, Ezion Holdings [BUY, FV: S$0.84]
is a promising counter for investors looking at small- and mid-cap plays
as we expect a jump in FY11-12 core earnings with deliveries of its
liftboats. (Low Pei Han)
Ascendas REIT: A-REIT tops bid for Fusionopolis site
Summary: A-REIT has submitted the highest bid of S$110m for a site at
Fusionopolis to develop a business park. According to A-REIT, the total
development cost of the property is not expected to exceed 3.3% of its
deposited property (S$5.4b) as at 31 Mar. With land acquisition cost of
S$110m, this works out to construction costs S$2,752 psm (in the worst
case) or total development cost of S$7,150 psm. On a GFA psm basis,
A-REIT’s recent acquisition of Neuros & Immunos (already developed),
completed on 1 Apr, costs S$3,400 psm. We also noted that another
commercial site in the vicinity at North Buona Vista Drive, won by Ho
Bee Developments on 5th Aug 2010, costs S$3,684 psm then. Based on these
transactions, we think A-REIT’s bid price may be on the high side.
Pending final award of the tender, we have not factor in contributions
from the new site. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value S$2.04.
(Ong Kian Lin)
Valuetronics Holdings: FY11 results within expectations
Summary: Valuetronics Holdings Limited (VHL) reported its 4QFY11 results
this morning with revenue growth of 73.2% YoY and 1.4% QoQ to
HK$531.9m. Gross profit surged 72.1% YoY and 6.6% QoQ to HK$86.4m, while
net profit rose 27.6% YoY but declined 11.0% QoQ to HK$28.1m. FY11
results were in line with our expectations, with revenue increasing
73.4% to HK$1.97b, which was 4.6% above our estimates. Bottomline jumped
106.3% to HK$121.2m and was just 0.4% higher than our full-year
forecast. We are encouraged by the revenue contribution from its new
licensing business segment (fourth quarter of contribution), which we
opine will be its new growth driver moving forward. VHL also expects to
benefit from the launch of new products by customers and to continue to
enjoy the growth momentum of its major OEM and ODM customers. A first
and final dividend of 14 HK cents was declared (versus 7 HK cents in
FY10), which implies a payout ratio of 41.1% and a healthy distribution
yield of 9.8%. We will provide more details after the analyst briefing
tomorrow. For now, we maintain our BUY rating but place our S$0.47 fair
value estimate under review. (Wong Teck Ching Andy)
For more information on the above, visit www.ocbcresearch.comfor detailed report.
NEWS HEADLINES
- Singapore’s headline inflation eased to 4.5% in Apr, going below 5% for the first time this year.
- Jitters over the corporate governance standards of S-chips have
surfaced once more, this time sparked by an audit report by the Chinese
National Audit Office about the state of affairs in Chinese state-owned
enterprises.
- Malaysian billionaire Robert Kuok has offered to buy all shares in his
Singapore property arm Allgreen Properties, in a privatisation move
that values the company at S$2.54b.
- Keppel FELS has won a US$180m contract to build a KFELS B Class
jack-up drilling rig for Vision Drilling, a wholly owned subsidiary of
Dynamic Offshore Drilling.
- KSH Holdings posted a 20% increase in net profit for FY11 to S$21.59m.
- Bukit Sembawang Estates reported a 34.4% YoY slide in net profit for
4QFY11 to S$27.5m despite a strong surge in sales, due to a smaller
writeback this quarter compared to the same period a year ago.
- SPICE i2i has acquired Indonesia's Affinity Group for US$175m.
- Lippo Karawci Tbk, through a series of transactions totalling
S$197.4m, will emerge as the largest shareholder of Lippo-Mapletree
Indonesia Retail Trust and the 100% shareholder of the trust's
management, LMIRT Management.
- Swiber Holdings has secured contract wins from oil majors worth some
US$109m for projects in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam.
• Still no compelling reason to buy, based on STI valuation.
The 58pts sell-down in the STI yesterday is in-line with our
expectation that the stock market lacks positive catalysts to
head higher post 1Q results season and focus can turn to
macro uncertainties in the weeks ahead. The present
uncertainties in Europe and a temporary slowdown in China’s
growth were 2 of the factors that we had discussed about in
our Weekly Focus in recent weeks.
Valuation wise, STI has not fallen to what is considered
attractive yet. Recalled that we had highlighted that the index
tends to trade between 12.4x (-1 SD) and 14.6x (Average) 12-
mth forward PE. This pegs a range from 2850 (pessimistic) to
3350 (optimistic) under sentiment extremes over the next 1-2
months. The mid-point of this range is 3100. While there can
be momentary support today as the STI tests the immediate
support of 3080-3100 level, the bias remains down and minor
rebound should be capped at 3130. No change in our
technical view that if the immediate support level fails to hold
subsequently, expect further downside to 2980.
According to Xinhua news, some irregularities and disciplinary
violations were found in FY09 financial statements of 17
Chinese state-owned enterprises (SOEs), including Cosco
Group, based on the audit reports released by the National
Audit Office (NAO). It is the parent company, Cosco Group,
not Cosco Corp that was reported to be one of the 17 SOEs.
Cosco Corp has made an announcement to clarify that neither
the Singapore-listed Cosco Corp nor any of its subsidiaries has
been cited as having committed any irregularities and
disciplinary violations in the above-mentioned NAO report. According to the report, Cosco Group has conservatively
understated the following:
1) net profit by RMB1.8bn (1.27%
of total net profits)
2) assets by RMB27.3bn (0.11% of total
assets)
3) liabilities by RMB0.5bn (0.005% of total liabilities)
4) equity value by RMB2.4bn (0.02% of total equity value)in FY09.
As can be seen, the impact on a % basis to these
respective items is negligible at 0.005%-1.27%. The unlisted
subsidiaries of Cosco Group - Cosco Guangzhou Ocean
Shipping and Cosco Dalian Ocean Shipping - were the two
names mentioned in the report as accountable for the
irregularities and disciplinary violations. Yesterday's news
caused Cosco Corp’s share price to be hammered down
by 7% to S$1.89. Current share price weakness presents
a good opportunity to buy ahead of new contract wins.
Maintain BUY, TP S$2.86.
Our analyst visited Keppel Land’s Chengdu residential
projects as well as Tianjin Eco-City, which are held by
both Keppel Corp and Kepland. The group is looking to
venture into commercial developments in China and this
could provide another avenue to grow in the medium
term. The group is also ramping up activities in Tianjin Eco
City, which could be another growth platform. Maintain
Buy on KepCorp (TP: S$13.55) and KepLand (TP: S$5.10).
Keppel Corp has secured a US$180m contract from
Dynamic Offshore Drilling to build a jackup drilling rig.
The rig is to be delivered in the first quarter of 2013 and
will be designed to operate in water depths of 350 feet
with a drilling depth of 30,000 feet. Dynamic Offshore
Drilling has the option to order an additional rig before
the third quarter of this year.
AusGroup has been awarded a major fabrication contract
by Chevron Australia to manufacture pipe spools for the
Gorgon Project, one of the world's largest natural gas
projects and the largest single resource natural gas
project in Australia’s history. The contract, valued at
about AU$50m, will take place over 18 months
commencing in the second half of 2011.
Sim Siang Choon is issuing 12m redeemable
exchangeable preference shares at an issue price of
S$1.00 per Preference Share. The net proceeds estimated
to be about S$11.6m, will be used to finance capital
expenditure and general working capital.
Raffles Education has entered into a joint venture to
pursue opportunities in the Middle East. It has formed a
JV to provide education services, professional training and
education-related consultancy services in the Middle East.
Singapore’s inflation eased to 4.5% yoy in April, slightly
higher than market consensus of 4.4% but is the lowest
so far this year. The CPI rose by 5.5% yoy in January, and
5% in both February and March. Transport costs jumped
11.7% because of more expensive cars and petrol.
Housing costs went up by 5.1%, and food prices gained
2.9%. Month on month, the CPI inched up by 0.3% in
April, driven largely by higher costs of transport, food,
recreation and other items. Core inflation, which strips
out accommodation and private transport costs, rose
2.2% yoy in April. This is higher than March's 1.8%.
US markets tumbled triple digits sparked by uncertainties
in various European countries and also after China’s latest
PMI pointed to slower growth. European stocks had fallen
to a 1-mth lower after Spain’s ruling party suffered its
worst election defeat in 30 years, Standard & Poor’s
warned it may downgrade Italy’s debt and on continued
concerns that Greece will default on its debt.
Commodities fell after a flash manufacturing index for
China fell to 51.1 for May, fanning worries that China’s
policy focus towards taming inflation is affecting growth.
if the euro crisis is only temporary and does not drag the US down, then it may be a buying opportunity for us in singapore. of course if we get a double whammy of BOTH euro and China, then that would be worrying....
CHINA AND EUROPE CRUSH THE US MARKET: Here's What You Need To Know
What a way to start the week!
But first, the scoreboard:
Dow: -124.87
NASDAQ: -43.66
S& P 500: -15.26
And now, the top stories:
- The name of the game is the deteriorating situation in Europe, which
really got going late last week. Let's roundup the horror show quickly.
On Friday evening, S& P lowered its outlook for Italian credit,
totally clobbering that market. Over the weekend, incumbents got crushed
in Spain and Germany.
Greek yields are blowing out the wazoo, as the government attempts to
rush out new privatization/austerity measures. Ugly all around. Markets
crushed, especially the core! Click here for the full guide to the Spanish debt crisis >
- In the US, the news is actually quiet. Earnings season is done, and there was no major macro data today, although the Chicago Fed Index was once again mediocre.
- In the end, things were down down down. The euro fell to fresh lows against both the gold and the Swiss Franc.
- Not surprisingly: big-time momentum names like the Chinese internet
stocks (RenRen and Sina) got demolished. LinkedIn also got hit hard
after yesterday's madness. Conversely, a surprise winner was Netflix, which remains insanely strong.
Study ties new al Qaeda chief to murder of journalist Pearl
Federal Bureau of Investigation photo of Egyptian Saif al-Adel
By Augustine Anthony
ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Saif al-Adel, an
Egyptian militant recently appointed interim leader of al Qaeda
operations, has been linked to the killing of U.S. journalist Daniel
Pearl in Pakistan in 2002, U.S. investigators said in a report.
A Wall Street Journal reporter, Pearl
was kidnapped in Pakistan's biggest city of Karachi in January 2002
while researching a story on Islamist militants, and was later beheaded.
The findings by investigators of the
Pearl Project revealed al-Adel had discussed Pearl's abduction with
Khalid Sheikh Mohammad, also known as KSM, the accused mastermind behind
the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States.
" KSM told the FBI that he was pulled
into the kidnapping by a high-level leader in al Qaeda circles, an
Egyptian named Saif al-Adel, who told him to make the kidnapping an al
Qaeda operation," said the investigators in their report which was
published in January.
Journalism academics and students set up
the Pearl Project at Georgetown University in the United States to
investigate Pearl's kidnapping and murder.
The linkage of al-Adel to Pearl's murder
shows the long-standing ties between al Qaeda and Pakistan militancy,
which flourishes not only in the lawless northwest along the Afghan
border but in Karachi and other urban centres.
Pearl fell into al Qaeda's hands after
Pakistani militants, the subject of Pearl's research, kidnapped him.
Al-Adel learned of Pearl and approached Mohammad to take him off the Pakistani militants' hands.
" He (al-Adel) thought this was an
opportunity," Mohammad told FBI agents, according to the report's
authors.
" We can take advantage of it. He said he wanted to make sure it's an al Qaeda thing."
Mohammad, who was arrested in Pakistan
in 2003 and taken to the U.S. prison at Guantanamo Bay, later admitted
he beheaded Pearl.
Mohammad told investigators he initially
had no idea about the kidnapping and he also said al Qaeda leader Osama
bin Laden was reportedly angry over Pearl's brutal killing, the report
said.
A former chief prosecutor for Guantanamo
Bay military commissions told the researchers: " One of the high value
detainees told interrogators that Osama bin Laden was angry that KSM had
slaughtered Pearl so publicly and brutally, arguing that the murder
brought unnecessary attention on the network."
A British-born Islamist militant, Ahmed
Omar Saeed Sheikh, was sentenced to death by a Pakistani court in 2002
for his role in Pearl's killing. He has appealed his conviction. Three
other co-accused who face life sentences, have also appealed.
Al-Adel, the latest militant named in
connection with Pearl's murder, was appointed al Qaeda's temporary
leader following the killing of bin Laden by U.S. special forces in a
Pakistani town on May 2.
U.S. prosecutors say al-Adel is one of
al Qaeda's top military commanders and helped plan 1998 bomb attacks on
the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. They also say he set up al
Qaeda training camps in Sudan and Afghanistan in the 1990s.
(Editing by Chris Allbritton and Robert Birsel)
10 Things You Need To Know This Morning
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
- Everyone's getting slammed: Asian indices were down in overnight trading with the Shanghai Composite down 2.9%. Major European indices are in the red and U.S. stocks are down.
- Preliminary data released by HSBC showed that Chinese manufacturing fell to a 10-month low in May. Chinese stocks slid after HSBC's preliminary purchasing managers' index fell to 51.1 in May, from April's reading of 51.8. A reading below 50 shows contraction.
- Sony Corp. has said it expects to post a huge net loss after a tax charge of $4.4 billion. The company announced that it expects a $3.18 billion net loss
for the year ending March 31. Sony has also taken a hit in recent
months after Japan’s earthquake and tsunami and a series of hacker
attacks this year.
- Private-equity firm Kohlberg Kravis Roberts & Co L.P. is expected to announce today that it has acquired Ipreo Holdings LLC,
a provider of capital-markets data to banks and financial institutions.
KKR & Co. L.P. is expected to pay $425 million in cash.
- BONUS - Katy Perry's romantic reunion with her husband Russell Brand was cut short after he was deported from Japan.
CHART OF THE DAY: Why An Italian Debt Crisis Should Scare The Crap Out Of Everyone
If the Greek debt crisis is a tough pickle to solve, it would be
nothing compared to a crisis in Italy, which is falling hard after a
warning on its debt from S& P.
This chart (via
FT) confirms that bank exposure to Italy absolutely dwarfs exposure to Greece and even Spain.
SINGAPORE -
Singapore share prices ended 1.8% lower on Monday, spooked by fresh
concerns over Greece's debt crisis and fears of a possible slowdown in
China's economy.
The blue-chip Straits Times Index (STI) lost 58.06 points to end at 3,110.48.
Investors
were again rattled by European sovereign debt fears after ratings
company Fitch on Friday slashed Greece's rating by three notches to B+,
citing its growing problems in getting its public finances in order.
Sentiment
was also hurt by preliminary data suggesting a slowdown in the Chinese
economy, with the HSBC Purchasing Manager's Index at a 10-month low in
May.
Overall volume traded on the Singapore Exchange was 1.30 billion shares, with losers outnumbering gainers 432 to 95.
Property counters with significant China portfolios tumbled, led by CapitaMalls Asia which fell 3.1% to S$1.59.
Shares of rig builders also slumped, weighed by the recent slide in crude oil prices.
Keppel Corp ended 2.6% lower at S$11.12. Rival Sembcorp Marine meanwhile gave up 2.8% to S$5.19.
Palm oil producers also performed badly, including Golden Agri-Resources which fell 2.1% to S$0.690.
- CNA/ir
if italy defaults, this contagion will spread amongst the europeans like wildfire. and before long, it will be part ii - sequel to 2008, where the main actor was wall street but this time round dud street.
Greece debt is just a small potatoes, Now everyone is wondering if ITALY will default !! !!!
China stocks at 3-1/2 mth low, Hong Kong breaks below 200-day MA
* Shanghai Comp drops 3 pct, tight liquidity weighs
* Hang Seng breaks below 200-day MA, more weakness seen
* Turnover in HK remains muted, no sign of panic: traders
* Milan Station shoots up 65 percent on debut
(Updates to close)
By Vikram Subhedar and Clement Tan
HONG KONG, May 23 (Reuters) - China shares fell to a
3-1/2-month low on Monday, dragging Hong Kong lower, as retail
investors piled into a selloff after a spike in money market
rates and a softer reading on Chinese manufacturing suggested
more weakness ahead.
Earlier on Monday, China's benchmark money market rate
, the main barometer of availibility of short-term
funds, jumped 64.5 basis points as traders expect a liquidity
squeeze to continue at least until the end of this month,
potentially limiting banks' lending activity.
The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index finished
almost 3 percent lower at 2,774.6 points, its biggest daily loss
in more than four months, after trading in a narrow 30-point
range for the previous eight sessions.
Hong Kong's Hang Seng index dropped 2.1 percent,
breaking below its 200-day moving average, currently at 23,007,
that had largely held firm this year and is now seen as
near-term resistance for any bounce.
" We're now in a down trend for sure, but the dip today seems
a little excessive," said Zhang Qi, an analyst with Haitong
Securities in Shanghai. Traders said panic selling by retail
investors probably magnified the losses.
Heavyweight financial and energy counters were the largest
drags on the composite index as Industrial and Commercial Bank
of China Ltd and China Shenhua Energy Co Ltd
lost 1.8 and 3.1 percent, respectively.
PetroChina Co Ltd lost 1.9 percent as U.S. crude
prices fell below $100 per barrel amid a rally in the dollar as
worries about the euro zone debt crisis escalated.
Monday's loss pushed the stock back in into technically
oversold territory, where it has been for most of May. It is now
down 10.8 percent since hitting its 2011 peak in mid April and
down 8.7 percent this quarter.
Analysts said concerns about China's slowing growth also
weighed on the market after the HSBC flash manufacturing
purchasing managers' index (PMI) showed Chinese factories
expanded in May at their slowest pace in 10 months while prices
pressures eased, adding to evidence that the economy is
moderating as a tighter policy starts to bite.
Data showed the flash PMI eased to 51.1 in May, the lowest
since July 2010, but still on track for expansion as a reading
above 50 points to growth.[ID:nL3E7GN06N]
" Today's flash PMI is renewing concerns that the
government's attempts to fight inflation might be overly
aggressive and lead to growth that might be slowing too much,"
said Cao Xuefeng, head of research at Huaxi Securities.
HK FOLLOWS CHINA DOWN, NO PANIC SEEN
In Hong Kong, turnover rose from Friday's thin levels but
remained about 4 percent below the average volumes seen over the
past 20 sessions, suggesting market players were not rushing for
the exits.
" There's certainly some concern out there but no real
evidence of people bailing out," said Tom Kaan, a director at
Louis Capital Markets in Hong Kong.
" It seems to me that a lot of the proprietary trading desks
are chucking out some of their longs and putting on some shorts
but cash volumes remain low," said Kaan.
Losses in Hong Kong were led by a 1.9 percent dip for HSBC
Holdings , Europe's biggest bank, followed by ICBC
, which fell 2.7 percent. and China Construction Bank
, which slid 2.1 percent.
HSBA has a 15 percent weighting in the benchmark index,
Commodity-related counters also fell as crude oil prices
retreated by as much as $2 a barrel.
Shares of oil major CNOOC fell 1.5 percent and
were the top drag on the benchmark following the financials.
Petrochina shed 1.9 percent.
Retail issues were among the weakest in the Hong Kong
market, led by top consumer goods exporter Li & Fung Ltd
, which fell 4.6 percent and was the top loser on the
main index.
Li & Fung previously traded under the listing code
0494
" It remains an interesting and well-managed company but I
think market expectations were just too high," said Matthew
Marsden, China consumer analyst at Samsung Securities, who was
rated the most accurate earnings forecaster for the company
according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.
Li & Fung, which resumed trading after a 1-for-2 stock split
last Thursday, is trading at 23.3 times its forward 12-month
earnings forecast, a 3 percent premium over its long-term median
valuation, according to Starmine.
Bucking the weaker trend in the market, Milan Station
, a retailer of second-hand handbags, shot up 65
percent on its trading debut as investors who were not allocated
shares in the heavily subsribed issue rushed in to buy. The
issues was oversubsribed over 2,000 times.
Wall St drops on euro debt, demand worries
Times Square, New York
* Signs of slowdown in industrial demand worry investors
* Oil, commodities decline as dollar gains vs euro
* Indexes down: Dow 1.1 pct, S& P 1.2 pct, Nasdaq 1.7 pct
(Updates to midday changes byline)
By Angela Moon
NEW YORK, May 23 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks fell on Monday as
escalating worries about the euro-zone debt crisis and a
slowdown in global industrial demand led investors to sell
risky assets.
Major indexes were down more than 1 percent, with the S& P
500 losing more than 3 percent for the month so far. Some
analysts see a further decline in coming days to 1,300.
Industrial stocks were the biggest decliners. Alcoa Inc
declined 1.8 percent to $15.98 and mining company
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc fell 2.8 percent to $47.04.
" There are some signs that suggest the market is oversold
in the near term, but I see a significance built into this
decline. I wouldn't be surprised to see S& P down to 1,300,
1,280 levels," James Dailey, portfolio manager at TEAM Asset
Strategy Fund in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, said.
The Dow Jones industrial average was down 133.92 points, or
1.07 percent, at 12,378.12.
The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was
down 15.36 points, or 1.15 percent, at 1,317.91. The Nasdaq
Composite Index was down 46.98 points, or 1.68 percent, at
2,756.34.
S& P cut its rating outlook for Italy to negative from
stable, citing weak growth prospects and increased risks from a
mountain of debt.
The cut came on the heels of a downgrade of Greece's credit
rating by Fitch Ratings on Friday.
" Unlike before, I don't see the market brushing off the
European issues this time because there are heightened concerns
about the global industrial slowdown," said Dailey.
The dollar rose, denting commodity prices. U.S. crude oil
futures lost 3.4 percent.
Chevron Corp dipped 1 percent to $101.52, while the PHLX
oil service sector index shed 2.4 percent.
Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou discussed new
emergency measures with his cabinet Monday to cut the deficit,
keen to convince lenders the government can deal with a debt
crisis without restructuring.
Adding to the worries, Spain's Socialists reeled from
losses in local elections. Investors are concerned that voter
rebellions against austerity plans could cause bailouts and
budget agreements to unravel, leaving large amounts of debt in
jeopardy of default.
The CBOE volatility index rose 6 percent to 18.47 after
surging 10 percent to topping 20 on an intraday basis for the
first time since March 23.
(Reporting by Angela Moon, Editing by Kenneth Barry)
KOSPI Likely Headed South Again
18 minutes ago
(RTTNews) - The South Korean stock market has finished higher now in two of three trading days since the end of the four-day losing streak in which it had declined nearly 70 points or 3.3 percent. The KOSPI finished just above the 2,110-point plateau, although now analysts are forecasting renewed weakness when the market opens on Monday.
The global forecast for the Asian markets suggests consolidation on continued debt concerns out of Europe. Financials are expected to lead the way lower, along with retailers and steel companies. The European and U.S. markets finished firmly in the red on Friday, and the Asian bourses are also expected to trend to the downside.
The KOSPI finished modestly higher on Friday following gains from the technology stocks and automobile producers.
For the day, the index collected 15.99 points or 0.76 percent to finish at 2,111.50 after trading between 2,084.06 and 2,112.48. Volume was 280 million shares worth 6.1 trillion won. There were 460 gainers and 354 decliners.
Among the gainers, Hynix Semiconductor climbed 2.06 percent, while Samsung Electronics added 0.23 percent, Hyundai Motor jumped 3.21 percent, Kia Motors collected 0.97 percent and Samsung Heavy Industries surged 3.9 percent.
Finishing lower, SK Innovation shed 0.91 percent, while LG Chem lost 0.99 percent, Samsung Securities fell 2.25 percent and Hyundai Engineering & Construction retreated 1.26 percent.
Wall Street offers little optimism as stocks moved mostly lower on Friday, giving back some ground after closing higher in the two previous sessions. Renewed concerns about financial situation in Europe contributed to the weakness on the markets along with disappointing guidance from Gap (GPS) and Aeropostale (ARO), which fell sharply on the day by 17.5 percent and 14.3 percent, respectively.
Gap reported first quarter earnings of $0.40 per share, down from $0.45 per share a year ago but above analyst estimates for earnings of $0.39 per share. However, the company also said it now expects full year earnings of $1.40 to $1.50 per share, well below estimates for $1.83 per share. Aeropostale reported first quarter earnings that came in line with analyst estimates but forecast second quarter earnings well below current expectations. Citing current business trends and an uncertain retail environment, Aeropostale also said it is neither reiterating nor updating its full year guidance.
Further selling pressure was generated by news that Fitch Ratings lowered its credit ratings on Greece to B+ from BB+, with the news adding to concerns about European debt. The agency noted that Greece will need to undertake further fiscal austerity measures in order to reach the goal of reducing the 2011 budget deficit to 7.5 percent of GDP as a result of the under-performance of tax receipts and higher deficit outturn for 2010 than originally targeted.
Meanwhile, shares of Barnes & Noble (BKS) moved sharply higher on news that Liberty Media has offered to acquire the bookstore operator for $17 per share in cash. The offer represents a 20 percent premium to Barnes & Noble's closing price on Thursday.
The major averages moved to the downside going into the close, ending the session firmly in negative territory. The Dow fell 93.28 points or 0.7 percent to 12,512.04, the NASDAQ dropped 19.99 points or 0.7 percent to 2,803.32 and the S& P 500 slid 10.33 points or 0.8 percent to 1,333.27. With the losses, the major averages all closed lower for the week, with the Dow and the NASDAQ falling by 0.7 percent and 0.9 percent, respectively, while the S& P 500 edged down by 0.3 percent.
In economic news, Japan, China and South Korea have agreed to enhance nuclear safety and disaster management in the wake of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant disaster. At a summit held in Tokyo on Sunday, the leaders of the three countries pledged to work together to prevent another nuclear disaster.
Japanese Prime Minister Naoto Kan, his Chinese counterpart Wen Jiabao and South Korean President Lee Myung Bak said in a joint statement issued at the end of the summit that they will work toward building a comprehensive framework in which their experts can work more closely together and mutually access useful information. The three East Asian countries also agreed to enhance joint programs on renewable energy and energy conservation to avoid undue dependence on nuclear power.
内 阁 宣 布 重 组 ， 国 家 发 展 部 的 “老 板 ”换 了 人 。 “新 老 板 ”许 文 远 一 上 台 是 否 会 立 马 为 房 市 降 温 ， 成 了 不 少 房 地 产 界 人 士 热 议 的 话 题 。
有 房 地 产 发 展 商 戏 言 ： “新 官 上 任 三 把 火 ， 我 们 不 怕 他 ‘放 火 ’， 只 怕 他 又 再 ‘灭 火 ’。 ”
自 2009年 以 来 ， 国 家 发 展 部 已 经 一 连 四 次 出 手 来 浇 熄 楼 市 “火 气 ”。 最 近 一 次 是 今 年 1月 中 ， 政 府 将 卖 方 印 花 税 一 口 气 提 高 到 16％ ， 并 将 第 二 套 房 的 房 贷 顶 限 由 房 价 的 70％ 降 低 至 60％ 。
下 手 之 重 虽 令 不 少 房 地 产 业 者 倒 抽 一 口 凉 气 ， 但 才 不 过 短 短 几 个 月 ， 楼 市 的 温 度 似 乎 又 再 回 升 。 刚 刚 出 炉 的 官 方 数 据 显 示 ， 发 展 商 在 4月 份 卖 出 的 新 私 宅 单 位 ， 不 但 连 续 两 个 月 回 升 ， 高 达 1788个 ， 还 创 下 五 个 月 来 的 最 高 。 最 近 ， 招 标 截 止 的 几 幅 政 府 地 段 ， 例 如 山 景 道 地 段 和 碧 山 第 14街 地 段 ， 也 吸 引 了 十 多 家 发 展 商 进 场 争 夺 ， 而 且 出 价 毫 不 手 软 。
“消 气 ”比 “灭 火 ”重 要
房 市 的 “火 气 ”好 像 怎 么 浇 也 浇 不 熄 ， 一 些 业 者 因 此 担 心 ， 新 老 板 上 台 后 会 雷 厉 风 行 地 颁 布 新 政 令 来 “灭 火 ”。 不 过 ， 大 部 分 业 者 认 为 ， 这 样 的 可 能 性 应 该 不 大 ， 因 为 现 阶 段 “消 气 ”比 “灭 火 ”更 重 要 。
住 屋 政 策 是 这 次 大 选 的 一 个 热 点 话 题 ， 也 是 许 多 人 对 政 府 表 示 不 满 的 因 素 之 一 。 马 宝 山 日 前 接 受 媒 体 访 问 时 ， 就 坦 承 住 房 政 策 的 政 治 代 价 大 ， 他 愿 意 对 人 民 的 不 满 情 绪 负 责 。
一 般 相 信 ， 解 决 人 们 认 为 “组 屋 价 格 偏 高 ”， 以 及 希 望 “很 快 就 能 买 到 房 子 ”的 心 态 ， 才 是 新 部 长 上 任 后 ， 必 须 优 先 处 理 的 问 题 。 与 其 单 为 私 宅 市 场 降 温 ， 倒 不 如 全 面 检 讨 房 屋 政 策 后 ， 再 推 出 全 套 的 改 革 方 案 ， 从 多 个 层 面 和 角 度 来 调 控 房 市 。
房 地 产 市 场 是 一 环 扣 一 环 ， 牵 一 发 动 全 身 的 机 制 ， 绝 对 不 能 拆 了 东 墙 补 西 墙 。 每 个 新 政 策 都 会 牵 扯 到 许 多 方 面 ， 必 须 拥 有 全 盘 周 详 的 考 量 。
以 调 低 新 组 屋 的 售 价 来 说 ， 这 固 然 能 令 许 多 还 没 有 “上 车 ”的 年 轻 人 高 兴 ， 但 却 会 对 其 他 人 ， 例 如 想 要 在 二 手 市 场 上 卖 掉 组 屋 的 人 ， 与 大 众 化 私 宅 业 主 （ 特 别 是 袖 珍 型 单 位 业 主 ） 造 成 影 响 。
这 是 因 为 新 组 屋 价 格 一 旦 变 得 较 便 宜 ， 就 会 导 致 一 些 人 放 弃 转 售 组 屋 ， 直 接 跟 建 屋 局 购 买 新 组 屋 。 转 售 组 屋 的 需 求 减 少 了 ， 价 格 自 然 往 下 调 整 ， 这 将 打 击 到 一 些 人 提 升 到 私 人 住 宅 的 “公 寓 梦 ”， 并 对 私 宅 价 格 和 需 求 量 （ 特 别 是 大 众 化 共 管 公 寓 如 袖 珍 型 单 位 ） 带 来 冲 击 。
当 越 来 越 多 人 转 去 购 买 新 组 屋 ， 人 们 就 有 可 能 要 等 上 更 久 才 能 拥 有 自 己 的 房 子 ——除 非 建 屋 局 也 同 步 增 加 新 组 屋 供 应 量 。
不 过 ， 这 又 会 对 这 个 法 定 机 构 带 来 许 多 资 源 上 的 压 力 ， 特 别 是 建 屋 局 已 在 多 年 前 的 重 组 中 ， 将 负 责 建 造 组 屋 的 工 程 部 门 私 营 化 。
这 可 能 牵 扯 到 这 个 机 构 所 扮 演 的 角 色 问 题 ， 现 在 是 不 是 需 要 重 新 审 视 ？ 当 初 的 种 种 改 革 变 化 ， 是 不 是 又 要 修 正 ， 甚 至 归 零 ， 退 回 原 地 ？
房 地 产 市 场 是 一 个 利 益 团 体 与 另 外 一 个 利 益 团 体 互 相 拉 锯 、 抗 衡 的 地 方 ， 从 来 都 是 顺 得 哥 情 失 嫂 意 ——价 钱 涨 了 ， 想 买 的 人 怨 声 载 道 ： 价 钱 跌 了 ， 想 卖 的 人 又 满 腹 怨 言 。
如 何 平 衡 不 同 团 体 的 利 益 ， 照 顾 到 双 方 的 情 绪 ， 是 一 门 艺 术 。 许 文 远 部 长 练 过 太 极 拳 ， 必 定 能 够 体 会 ， 因 为 太 极 拳 的 精 髓 正 是 处 于 阴 阳 、 动 静 、 虚 实 之 间 的 相 互 变 化 ， 这 种 永 远 变 动 开 合 的 状 态 ， 必 须 遵 守 平 衡 ， 即 “无 过 不 及 ， 随 曲 就 伸 ”。
市 场 资 讯 进 一 步 透 明 化
除 了 住 屋 政 策 ， 一 个 较 少 人 提 及 ， 但 我 认 为 同 样 必 要 改 变 ， 是 市 场 资 讯 的 进 一 步 透 明 化 。
在 前 部 长 马 宝 山 的 推 动 下 ， 私 人 住 宅 市 场 可 以 说 是 目 前 整 个 房 地 产 市 场 最 透 明 的 一 个 领 域 。 市 区 重 建 局 每 个 季 度 ， 甚 至 每 个 月 都 发 表 大 量 的 房 地 产 数 据 ， 但 是 组 屋 市 场 和 工 商 业 房 地 产 市 场 的 资 讯 却 相 对 贫 乏 。
目 前 ， 建 屋 局 每 个 季 度 都 会 公 布 转 售 组 屋 的 价 格 指 数 ， 但 是 新 组 屋 却 没 这 样 一 个 指 数 。 至 于 新 组 屋 的 潜 在 供 应 量 ， 例 如 完 工 日 期 、 已 售 和 未 售 单 位 等 等 ， 也 都 没 被 完 整 披 露 。
在 市 区 重 建 局 网 站 上 ， 公 众 可 以 轻 易 找 到 某 个 公 寓 项 目 或 某 一 条 街 道 的 房 子 的 买 卖 禁 令 （ caveat） 资 料 ， 包 括 单 位 面 积 、 售 价 、 交 易 月 份 等 。 但 是 ， 新 组 屋 的 买 卖 禁 令 资 料 却 不 公 开 ， 转 售 组 屋 的 买 卖 禁 令 资 料 则 只 开 放 给 少 数 业 内 人 士 使 用 。
同 样 的 ， 建 屋 局 管 理 的 店 屋 和 工 厂 单 位 ， 无 论 是 租 金 或 交 易 资 料 也 都 很 难 找 到 。 这 也 就 是 说 ， 公 众 根 本 没 有 办 法 知 道 ， 某 一 条 街 有 多 少 建 屋 局 的 店 屋 租 了 出 去 ， 租 金 多 少 、 店 面 多 少 等 等 。
买 家 需 要 公 开 透 明 的 资 料 ， 才 能 作 出 明 智 的 购 屋 和 租 屋 决 定 。 卖 家 也 需 要 完 整 的 资 料 ， 才 能 作 出 正 确 的 判 断 。 面 对 不 完 善 的 资 讯 ， 人 们 自 然 会 焦 虑 ， 作 出 违 反 市 场 原 理 的 决 定 ， 甚 至 被 掌 握 较 多 资 讯 的 一 方 “欺 凌 ”。
两 年 前 ， 我 报 道 一 些 零 售 商 和 厂 家 因 为 租 金 的 问 题 而 与 业 主 闹 得 很 僵 。 当 时 ， 他 们 提 出 一 个 关 键 的 问 题 ： 由 于 市 面 上 找 不 到 完 整 的 商 店 和 工 厂 租 金 资 料 ， 结 果 业 主 在 谈 判 时 掌 握 许 多 优 势 ， 往 往 一 加 租 就 是 20％ 、 30％ 。 由 于 他 们 根 本 不 知 道 其 他 商 家 付 多 少 租 金 ， 很 多 时 候 只 好 任 由 业 主 “宰 割 ”， 要 不 咬 牙 租 下 ， 要 不 就 放 弃 离 开 。
他 们 的 感 觉 可 能 是 真 的 ， 但 也 可 能 是 种 误 解 ， 业 主 未 必 随 意 起 租 ， 但 在 没 有 完 整 资 讯 的 情 况 下 ， 两 方 只 是 公 说 公 有 理 ， 婆 说 婆 有 理 ， 很 难 达 成 共 识 。
不 少 人 相 信 ， 一 些 数 据 不 被 公 开 ， 背 后 可 能 存 在 一 些 政 治 考 量 。 不 过 ， 从 这 次 大 选 可 以 看 到 ， 不 公 开 数 据 ， 也 同 样 可 能 带 来 政 治 代 价 。
移 民 课 题 是 大 选 另 外 一 个 热 点 课 题 ， 坊 间 的 不 满 情 绪 ， 有 一 部 分 是 因 为 他 们 认 为 ， 外 来 移 民 对 本 地 的 房 屋 、 交 通 、 医 药 系 统 带 来 了 巨 大 的 压 力 ， 造 成 房 价 上 涨 、 交 通 拥 挤 、 医 院 排 队 时 间 冗 长 。
如 果 这 样 的 观 念 是 错 误 的 ， 或 许 政 府 有 必 要 公 开 更 多 资 料 ， 将 它 纠 正 过 来 。 但 如 果 这 样 的 观 念 是 正 确 的 ， 那 么 ， 公 开 资 料 或 许 能 够 协 助 人 们 更 早 发 现 这 个 问 题 ， 将 问 题 的 严 重 性 提 出 来 讨 论 ， 相 关 的 利 益 人 士 也 能 够 更 快 作 出 反 应 ， 而 不 会 被 突 如 其 来 的 屋 价 上 涨 搞 到 措 手 不 及 。
今 年 1月 中 旬 出 台 了 新 一 轮 房 地 产 降 温 措 施 ， 手 头 上 仍 有 一 个 未 清 房 贷 项 目 的 屋 主 ， 申 请 新 房 贷 时 ， 向 金 融 机 构 贷 款 的 顶 限 减 至 60％ ， 也 就 是 屋 主 最 多 只 能 借 贷 60％ 款 项 。
金 融 顾 问 公 司 SingCapital首 席 执 行 员 谢 诏 全 受 访 时 表 示 ， 这 项 措 施 的 确 令 部 分 本 地 人 转 向 投 资 海 外 房 地 产 。 他 说 ： “如 果 说 100万 元 的 房 地 产 ， 必 须 支 付 40万 元 的 现 金 款 项 。 40万 新 元 可 兑 换 成 约 90万 令 吉 ， 在 马 国 购 买 一 间 洋 房 还 有 绰 绰 有 余 。 ”
投 资 马 国 房 产 具 杠 杆 效 应
新 元 的 强 劲 走 势 ， 加 上 印 花 税 、 遗 产 继 承 税 等 的 考 量 ， 投 资 马 来 西 亚 房 地 产 的 确 更 能 发 挥 “杠 杆 效 应 ”。
“过 去 不 少 新 加 坡 人 投 资 欧 美 房 地 产 ， 但 远 距 离 是 个 问 题 ， 有 什 么 事 也 不 可 能 常 坐 飞 机 去 解 决 ， 投 资 是 希 望 获 利 而 不 是 找 麻 烦 。 马 国 就 有 地 理 上 的 优 势 ， 至 少 开 车 数 小 时 可 以 到 ， 尤 其 是 新 山 。 ”
“我 的 第 二 个 故 乡 —马 来 西 亚 ”（ MM2H） 计 划 ， 可 让 达 到 特 定 标 准 的 外 国 人 ， 取 得 多 次 入 境 居 留 证 长 达 10年 （ 可 更 新 ） 。 一 些 想 要 转 换 生 活 环 境 或 正 规 划 退 休 生 活 的 本 地 人 ， 因 此 考 虑 到 马 来 西 亚 置 业 。
这 项 计 划 主 要 奖 励 内 容 包 括 ： 申 请 者 可 获 多 达 85％ 的 房 贷 、 免 税 购 买 马 来 西 亚 生 产 或 组 装 的 轿 车 、 可 雇 用 女 佣 等 。
50岁 以 上 者 需 拥 有 相 等 于 50万 令 吉 的 流 动 资 产 ， 及 存 入 15万 令 吉 在 马 来 西 亚 的 银 行 。 50岁 以 下 者 需 拥 有 相 等 于 50万 令 吉 的 流 动 资 产 及 每 月 1万 元 的 岸 外 收 入 ， 并 存 入 30万 令 吉 在 马 来 西 亚 的 银 行 。
存 入 马 来 西 亚 银 行 的 定 期 存 款 ， 12个 月 后 可 基 于 支 付 医 药 费 、 教 育 费 或 购 买 房 地 产 等 原 因 提 出 提 取 申 请 。
戴 德 梁 行 （ DTZ） 马 来 西 亚 咨 询 与 研 究 执 行 董 事 高 永 全 表 示 ， 目 前 马 来 西 亚 提 供 给 大 多 数 新 加 坡 人 的 移 居 管 道 相 当 充 足 ， 因 此 MM2H还 没 有 发 挥 强 大 的 号 召 力 。
根 据 马 来 西 亚 的 官 方 数 据 ， 2002年 至 2011年 2月 ， MM2H主 要 吸 引 到 来 自 中 国 、 巴 基 斯 坦 、 英 国 、 日 本 和 伊 朗 人 ； 新 加 坡 排 行 第 六 ， 共 有 741人 参 与 这 项 计 划 。
有 地 房 产 回 报 较 高
前 往 新 山 置 业 的 本 地 人 ， 除 了 自 住 和 充 当 周 末 度 假 屋 外 ， 也 希 望 具 有 投 资 价 值 ， 但 目 前 的 回 报 率 并 不 特 别 突 出 。
外 国 人 在 马 来 西 亚 置 业 ， 只 能 购 买 超 过 50万 元 的 房 地 产 ； 按 照 新 山 的 房 价 ， 这 相 等 于 至 少 是 排 楼 、 半 独 立 屋 子 、 洋 房 、 高 级 公 寓 或 办 公 楼 。
HO CHIN SOON研 究 公 司 负 责 人 何 振 顺 ， 也 是 一 名 估 价 师 兼 测 量 师 ， 他 就 今 年 4月 刚 公 布 的 《 2010年 房 地 产 市 场 报 告 》 进 行 分 析 整 理 ， 指 出 联 邦 直 辖 区 和 吉 隆 坡 的 房 价 20年 来 增 长 2.99倍 ， 槟 城 增 长 2.55倍 ， 新 山 仅 增 长 1.67倍 。
如 果 以 排 楼 的 价 格 来 看 ， 10年 来 槟 城 岛 增 长 2.14倍 ， 联 邦 直 辖 区 和 吉 隆 坡 的 中 心 增 长 1.61倍 ， 新 山 反 而 下 滑 0.18倍 。
报 告 也 指 出 ， 柔 佛 去 年 整 体 房 价 扬 升 2.6％ ， 半 独 立 洋 房 平 均 价 增 值 12.3％ ， 排 楼 微 涨 1.5％ ， 高 楼 住 宅 上 升 4.1％ ， 独 立 洋 房 平 均 价 却 相 对 大 跌 10.1％ 。
何 振 顺 说 ， 有 地 房 产 的 转 售 回 报 率 较 高 ， 公 寓 则 是 租 金 回 报 率 较 高 。 如 果 要 在 马 来 西 亚 投 资 房 地 产 ， 他 会 更 推 荐 槟 城 、 雪 兰 莪 和 吉 隆 坡 一 带 ， 新 山 仍 处 于 起 飞 阶 段 。
他 说 ： “新 山 房 地 产 价 格 的 波 动 不 大 。 它 和 马 来 西 亚 其 他 地 区 不 同 ， 不 是 跟 着 经 济 起 落 走 ， 而 是 跟 马 来 西 亚 和 新 加 坡 两 国 关 系 的 好 坏 走 ， 因 此 金 融 危 机 时 其 他 地 区 的 房 价 掉 ， 新 山 不 跌 反 升 。 ”
何 振 顺 认 为 新 山 的 公 寓 市 场 还 不 成 熟 ， 因 此 无 法 估 算 出 租 的 回 报 率 。
高 永 全 则 表 示 ： “总 体 而 言 ， 根 据 过 往 的 纪 录 ， 在 马 国 持 中 长 线 投 资 的 有 地 房 产 都 不 会 亏 钱 ， 但 过 去 10年 购 买 高 级 公 寓 的 投 资 者 资 金 仍 被 套 住 。 近 年 来 租 金 回 报 没
那 么 理 想 ， 要 找 到 租 户 并 不 容 易 ， 尤 其 是 高 档 公 寓 。 此 外 ， 回 报 率 也 不 会 比 新 加 坡 好 。 ”
谈 到 新 山 房 地 产 ， 他 留 意 到 所 有 投 资 都 集 中 在 马 来 西 亚 依 斯 干 达 （ Iskandar Malaysia） ， 整 个 柔 佛 南 部 的 潜 能 高 ， 发 展 脚 步 也 比 过 往 快 ， 但 房 地 产 投 资 要 较 长 时 间 才 能 取 得 好 的 回 报 。
他 认 为 商 用 店 屋 的 回 报 率 较 快 ， 有 地 房 产 的 回 报 率 在 成 本 上 扬 的 压 力 下 会 持 续 增 长 。
高 永 全 也 表 示 ， 随 着 新 马 两 国 关 系 的 升 温 ， 更 多 新 加 坡 的 发 展 商 前 去 新 山 探 路 ， 有 助 提 高 房 地 产 的 品 质 。 两 国 政 府 正 式 合 作 推 行 的 计 划 ， 也 可 提 振 市 场 情 绪 。
何 振 顺 在 观 望 依 斯 干 达 的 发 展 。 他 说 ， 如 果 地 铁 真 的 能 够 连 接 新 加 坡 和 新 山 ， 即 使 只 有 一 个 点 ， 对 新 山 房 地 产 市 场 有 利 。
新 山 房 价 料 涨 一 成
马 来 西 亚 房 地 产 发 展 商 会 柔 佛 州 分 会 署 理 会 长 许 木 兴 ， 于 5月 初 接 受 马 来 西 亚 媒 体 访 问 时 预 测 ， 随 着 全 球 经 济 增 长 ， 建 筑 材 料 价 格 上 调 ， 明 年 柔 佛 州 内 的 房 地 产 价 格 将 上 调 约 10至 15％ ， 因 此 今 年 是 进 军 柔 佛 州 、 尤 其 是 新 山 房 地 产 的 黄 金 时 机 。
他 指 出 ， 新 山 吸 引 许 多 来 自 其 他 州 属 、 在 新 加 坡 工 作 的 年 轻 人 置 业 。 新 山 人 对 房 地 产 也 有 强 大 的 需 求 和 购 买 力 ， 因 此 吸 引 不 少 发 展 商 前 往 。
发 展 商 Gamuda Land在 巴 生 谷 以 外 的 第 一 个 项 目 Horizon Hills， 位 于 马 来 西 亚 依 斯 干 达 的 努 沙 再 也 区 内 ， 是 新 山 至 今 最 高 档 的 住 宅 区 。 2007年 开 发 以 来 ， Horizon Hills的 平 均 转 售 价 比 原 本 售 价 高 出 三 成 ， 区 内 四 成 外 国 居 民 当 中 新 加 坡 人 占 约 80％ 。
近 年 来 新 山 推 出 更 多 高 档 新 颖 、 多 重 保 安 和 宽 敞 舒 适 的 住 宅 项 目 ， 吸 引 不 少 新 加 坡 人 的 目 光 。 马 来 西 亚 房 地 产 发 展 商 理 事 黄 健 光 对 马 来 西 亚 媒 体 表 示 ， 新 加 坡 投 资 购 屋 者 逐 年 增 加 ， 去 年 占 8％ ， 今 年 的 新 加 坡 买 家 预 测 介 于 8至 10％ 。
谢 诏 全 提 醒 ： 新 加 坡 人 投 资 海 外 房 地 产 时 ， 必 须 量 力 而 为 ， 考 虑 可 能 面 对 的 风 险 ， 别 以 为 占 有 汇 兑 的 优 势 就 大 胆 投 资 。
他 指 出 ， 我 国 的 房 贷 利 息 偏 低 ， 介 于 1至 2％ ， 马 来 西 亚 的 平 均 房 贷 利 息 达 6％ 。 此 外 ， 如 果 将 来 新 元 走 软 ， 马 来 西 亚 房 地 产 所 需 缴 付 的 贷 款 就 相 对 增 加 。
对 于 有 能 力 的 投 资 者 ， 谢 诏 全 建 议 可 考 虑 “资 产 抵 押 贷 款 ”（ Equity Term Loan） 。 在 这 类 贷 款 下 ， 屋 主 能 以 现 有 房 地 产 作 为 抵 押 ， 借 一 笔 款 项 ， 以 现 金 购 买 马 来 西 亚 房 地 产 ， 然 后 以 出 租 的 租 金 偿 还 每 个 月 的 贷 款 。
当 然 ， 屋 主 必 须 确 保 在 房 地 产 无 法 出 租 时 也 有 能 力 偿 还 分 期 付 款 ， 因 此 最 好 请 专 家 代 为 规 划 。
新 山 置 业 有 地 理 上 的 方 便 ， 投 资 者 须 考 虑 偿 还 能 力 及 风 险 。 随 着 依 斯 干 达 的 发 展 ， 及 两 国 交 通 的 合 作 ， 新 山 房 地 产 价 格 有 望 调 高 ， 但 这 是 一 项 中 长 期 的 投 资 ， 不 宜 充 当 短 期 套 利 。
04:47 AM May 23, 2011
SINGAPORE - In the light of looming risks in the global economy, economists say small and open economies such as Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong are most vulnerable.
Risks such as large fiscal deficits and high inflation remain potential dampeners of growth in the global economy, despite the strong economic rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.
One of the consequences of large fiscal deficits is mounting sovereign debt. If it goes unchecked, it could spark another financial crisis.
The United States fiscal deficit currently stands at an estimated US$1.645 trillion (S$2.04 trillion), while household debt rose 0.3 per cent to US$11.5 trillion for the latest quarter ended March 31. The risk of a credit downgrade on US government debt instruments will be raised, if the deficits remain high.
" When that happens, there will be reduced consumption, spending and real income levels and, if that adjustment is too large a shock, it could lead to global imbalances and another financial crisis," said Dr Joseph Cherian, practice professor of finance at NUS Business School.
If another economic downturn strikes, the impact on Asia will be mixed. Economists said economies such as Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong will likely see a sharper correction in gross domestic product growth.
However, other economies like India, China and Indonesia are expected to remain resilient as they have a big domestic market to rely on. Besides the sovereign debt situation, analysts cited inflation as another risk that may threaten global economic growth.
" We have seen that most of these countries in Asia have already tightened policies and they will continue to do so in order to put the inflation situation under control," said Mr Alvin Liew, an economist at UOB.
On the bright side, economists believe global inflation to be a transitory effect of high commodity prices. This is expected to ease in the second half of this year.
Other risks that could dampen global economic growth include geopolitical unrest and the strain of ageing populations on developed countries around the world.
04:47 AM May 23, 2011
SINGAPORE - Analysts are keeping a close eye on property developer and land transport operator stocks, after the recent Cabinet reshuffle raised concerns about future housing and transportation policies.
The changes to the Cabinet should bring about a complete review of housing affordability and public transport infrastructure in the next six to 12 months, commented UBS strategist Tan Min Lan in a report last week.
" The Government would have to re-examine its position on the optimal level of state subsidies that go into the provisions of public housing and public transportation," Ms Tan wrote.
" For example, should housing affordability be raised by outright lowering of new flat prices by increasing subsidies, rather than raising income ceilings for HDB eligibility?" she said. " Would commuters be better served by a merger or even nationalisation of the two public transport operators?"
The existing housing supply programme is also a near-term concern for the property market. Plans for the Government land sales programme for the second half of this year will be unveiled soon and UBS is expecting 7,000 to 8,000 units on the programme's confirmed list.
" We estimate that population growth must be sustained at last year's rate of 1.8 per cent per annum to create a sufficient level of demand to match upcoming supply by 2015 - assuming a private vacancy rate of 6.5 per cent," wrote Ms Tan.
According to housing estimates from both the Government and private sector, there may be 19,421 private residential units and 22,000 HDB units available by 2014.
" If the Government were to further raise public supply without a corresponding cut on the private side, the market would be set up for an excess supply situation by 2015," she added.
Now that earnings season is almost over, quieter times are in for the Straits Times Index (STI) this week. Last week's trading saw the STI climb 1.22 per cent to close at 3,168.54 on Friday.
" It's now back to the worries that have continuously plagued markets, like the European debt crisis and rising inflation in Asia," said Mr Roger Tan, vice-president and head of research at SIAS.
May 22, 2011
Stalling reforms, EU gridlock are deja vu for Greece
ATHENS - AN ECONOMY in deep trouble, European pressure for quicker reforms and domestic politicians at each others' throats: it's deja vu for Greece which needs a new lifeline after nearly hitting the rocks last year.
And yet, the situation could actually be worse this time round.
The International Monetary Fund, so crucial in whipping up a rescue package for Greece last year, is now headless after the resignation of its chief Dominique Strauss-Kahn who faces an embarrassing sex assault trial in New York.
And for the first time, divergence of opinion between Europe's financial brass on how to act on Greece has exploded into open dispute.
The euro zone and the European Central Bank, guardian of fiscal stability in the bloc's monetary union, publicly sparred this week about whether Greece should be allowed easier repayment terms on its enormous sovereign debt.
After years of runaway deficits, the Greek debt has exploded to 340 billion euros (S$600 billion) and economists now doubt that Athens will be able to stay abreast of its obligations when an EU-IMF rescue loan runs out in 2013. -- AFP
Oil Rises, Follows Heating Oil, on Report of Gain in Fuel Demand
May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Oil rose for the second time this week, following heating oil, after the American Petroleum Institute reported that fuel consumption increased in April as economic growth bolstered demand for diesel by truckers.
Oil gained 1.1 percent as the API reported total deliveries of petroleum products, a measure of demand, climbed 5.2 percent last month from a year earlier. Heating oil, a distillate fuel like diesel and jet fuel, jumped 0.8 percent on the Nymex. Refineries such as Valero Energy Corp.’s St. Charles refinery in Norco, Louisiana, are restarting after planned work.
“You’re going to have to see some strength in the crude market because you’re starting to see more refineries come back online,” said Carl Larry, director of energy derivatives and research at Blue Ocean Brokerage LLC in New York. “Demand will probably be a little stronger than we expect.”
Crude oil for June delivery gained $1.05 to settle at $99.49 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices fell 16 cents this week and have risen 46 percent in the past year. The June contract expired at the close of Nymex floor trading. July crude gained $1.17, or 1.2 percent, to $100.10 a barrel.
Brent crude for July settlement rose 97 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $112.39 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange.
Fuel consumption increased to 19.9 million barrels a day last month from a year earlier, the industry-funded API reported today. The American Automobile Association said yesterday that U.S. air travel will jump to the highest level since 2005 over this month’s U.S. Memorial Day weekend, as road travel declines.
Holiday Travel
Memorial Day, which falls on May 30 this year, is the beginning of the peak U.S. gasoline-consuming period, known as summer driving season. It extends until Labor Day, which falls on Sept. 5.
The number of air travelers during the holiday will jump 12 percent to 2.93 million, while trips by auto will fall by 100,000 to 30.9 million, according to a forecast by the AAA, the biggest U.S. motoring organization. About 88 percent of travelers will drive to their destination.
Heating oil for June delivery climbed 2.36 cents to settle at $2.9183 a gallon on the Nymex. Gasoline for June delivery rose 0.98 cent, or 0.3 percent, to $2.9358 a gallon.
U.S. refinery utilization advanced 1.5 percentage points in the week ended May 13 to 83.2 percent, the highest level since May 1, the Energy Department reported this week. Refinery operations dropped to 79.4 percent in the week ended Feb. 18, the lowest level in a year.
Valero said today it has started a 100,000-barrel-a-day fluid catalytic cracker at its St. Charles refinery which shut in February for work. BP Plc’s Texas City, Texas, refinery returned to normal operations this week after a power failure April 25. PBF Energy Co. LLC plans to start units at its Delaware City, Delaware, plant, people with knowledge of the operations said yesterday.
Al-Qaeda Network
Oil also rose after the U.S. Homeland Security Department said the al-Qaeda terrorist network is interested in targeting the country’s oil and gas infrastructure, though there is no “specific or imminent” threat, said Matt Chandler, a department spokesman.
Oil tumbled as much as 2.5 percent in earlier trading as the German Bundesbank said growth in Europe’s largest economy will probably slow, and the euro’s weakness against the dollar curbed the appeal of commodities as an alternative investment.
Euro Drops
Oil’s decline tracked a drop in the euro that began around 9:30 a.m. in New York. Crude tumbled more than $2 a barrel to an intraday low of $95.99 a barrel during the next half hour.
The euro fell 0.7 percent to $1.4216 at 2:49 p.m. in New York.
“The market is taking its cues from the dollar,” said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Connecticut. “It doesn’t seem to be able to hold onto gains above $100.”
The euro dropped after the Bundesbank statement prompted traders to reduce bets the European Central Bank will increase interest rates. It extended losses after Fitch Ratings said it would consider an extension of the maturities of existing Greek government bonds to be a “default event.”
Crude oil may rise next week amid higher fuel demand in the U.S., a Bloomberg News survey showed. Eighteen of 43 analysts, or 42 percent, forecast oil will increase through May 27. Fifteen respondents, or 35 percent, predicted prices will decline and 10 projected little change.
Oil volume in electronic trading on the Nymex was 586,029 contracts as of 2:50 p.m. in New York. Volume totaled 618,965 contracts yesterday, 13 percent below the average of the past three months and the lowest level since May 4. Open interest was 1.55 million contracts.
ECB officials reject Greek debt restructuring
(AFP) – 2 hours ago
ATHENS — Two senior members of the European Central Bank (ECB) said on Sunday in the Greek press that Greece can avoid restructuring its debt if the country sticks to the 110-billion-euro EU-IMF bailout plan to the letter.
"If all the points in the program are implemented, the sustainability of the debt is guaranteed," Juergen Stark, an Executive Board member of the ECB, told Kathimerini newspaper in an interview.
"With any type of restructuring, Greece is in danger of failing to tap the markets in a reasonable time, and if it succeeds, it will pay in the future a higher risk margin," he said.
ECB governing council member of Austria Ewald Nowotny ruled out the possibility of Greece restructuring its massive debt.
"The ECB has a clear position: this program (110 billion euro rescue package) is the route you must follow. I don't see an alternative plan," Nowotny said in an interview with To Vima newspaper.
The comments by the ECB officials come just one day before Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou chairs a cabinet meeting to discuss a new mid-term fiscal plan aimed at implementing the program agreed with the country's creditors.
