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Fellowship of the Shares

CKS,

good wine selection you have there... but which vintage? 

 

chinkiasu, what? You start a fresh new day drinking wine! That won't do for me... need coffee or tea... Tsk tsk tsk... Margaux and Chablis etc.. expensive morning drinks..

 

Hahaha.. I am going to watch NDP on actual day...

 

sporegal,

please don't go away over the National Day hols.......things are bad enough with the sub prime and yen carry trade.....don't need the SGH phenomena to come into play.

Elf,

Ref your FA on Gen Intl.....nothing wrong with your cals but perhaps I can illustrate the impact of high P/Es. For my personnal investment criteria, I do not consider vesting in stocks if P/E is > 15X .....except when there is exceptional growth/profit down the horizon. For the GI example, Lets assume compounded growth based on 100%, 80% and 50% pa.....the table below shows the number of years it will achieve P/E of 15x and below.

Compd Growth Rate                        100%                      80%                      50%

PE after 1 yr                                     42.6%                    47.3%                    56.8%

PE after 2 yrs                                    21.3%                    26.3%                    37.9%

PE after 3 yrs                                   10.6%                     14.6%                   25.2%

PE after 4 yrs                                                                                               16.8%

From the above, you can see that at

100% compounded growth, P/E of 15X can be achieved in about 2.5 yrs. 

@ 80% it will need about 3 years and @ 50%, > 4 years.

This is simplistic but it just illustrates the power of P/E as a tool.

               

 

chinkiasu :  hahaha !

feeling patriotic ? .... and drinking .......something , French ????, something foreign ???

hahaha !

my knowkledge of drinks is zero ... but i have heard of something callled Singapore Sling (?) ......

... or what is our national drink ?

i think i stick to our SP services water and home made tea with milk ! hahaha !

mmmm ...... i think i better copyright this idea ! hahaha !

 

ok, Elf...  I will join you and celebrate ND (literally in spirit) with the red and white...  I will start the day with white wine (Chablis & Puligny Montrachet ) and then end the evening with a red Château Margaux (and dream I am having a Petrus)..

 

ha ha oh, Snoothie.. now I got an appropriate excuse if I am caught watching the girls (skirts) swish by.....

hey cashiertan... did you not know that ipunter is Manikamaniko aka $come$go aka Mani..$$ ???

btw, I am not so sure that today would be all red... I will go and watch those skirts.. better still maybe I should ask Singaporegal if she is gona where miniskirts today? One thing I know, she is going to be around in town, so unlikely to be a crash....

 

Giantlow, bentan79..  I respect you folks for the endurance. may you recover soon..

 

i like to ask what happen to ipunter?

 

thanks 

 

bentan79

sorry to hear that u are oso having the same problems which i had experienced.

for my case, managed to sell my shares in other counters and borrowed 30K from my family.

POEMS repayment scheme is rather crappy, u must settle at least of your outstanding debts and settle the remaining balance within the next 6 months at a certain %. (i think 15%)

there are some ways to raise money,

borrow $$$ from ezycash (up to 4 times monthly salary)

if you have bought insurance, discuss whether u can stop paying premiums for a few months

sell off valuables like mp3 player etc

reduce cost >> tabao food from home for lunch, no taxis, restuarant food and other luxuries

hope you ride out the storm soon

 

 

Hi CKS,

Was actually referring to the skirt length theory mentioned here --> http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/skirtlengththeory.asp

No laughing matter...i dun think its coincidence wide spread share price dropping occurred on 19 Jul.


Hi Mani,

Read saturday money pg...its a scary read...inflection point as they call it?

 

Interestingly, berkshire hathaway bought some stuff on thurs / friday ...cant remember which day... maybe situation not that bad in US still got something in value investing category...

Gd night to all.

 

 

tickets to the ndp....more like permanent standby for duty since the rehearsal yesterday. niama.

there's a very good spot to watch the fireworks tho: at the IR area there. gotta get through the construction area but you'll have front row 'seat' by the water to watch the fireworks. :)

singapore and its obsession with records. bwah.

ok, just had dinner; gonna watch some tv and veg out. nites and sweet dreams. :)

 

Hi Sgal....

If u are feeling patriotic and could not get the NDP ticket for a  front seat at the bay to watch the ceremony, perhap u could carry a white or red umbrella and go the Padang to form the SGP flag. They intend to set a Guinness record for having the most people forming a National Flag, I think. 

 

hahaha... hi elfie... nice to see you again!

I thought maybe you would have tickets to the NDP?


 

 

singaporegal! *hugs*

well....the singapore flag is red and white. now, let's think. what else is red and white?

wine.

HEEHEE.

anyone with me? :P

 

What a gloomy weekend.... rainy and cloudy... boring...

Anyone has any idea how to spend the upcoming National Day holiday weekend? Don't feel like leaving the country. 

 

Simply Awesome !

Salute to all the Greats !

This correction has really brought out the best in this forum.

The postings/advice/insights by the Greats like livermore, elfinchilde, investment, victorf  and others should be etched in gold !

The closing of rank, the consoling ,the encouragement, the advice, selfless well meant advice by all reveals the forummers vast experience and their noble character. Their compassion to look out for each other is really great !

All the advice, especially in context of the recent drop in the market , are one superb live lesson .

A solid piece of lesson not to be forgotten. The advice to bentan is a lesson to be taken to heart by all newbies and beginners .

Salute !

 

haha kid, i can sleep it away precisely cos it's good weather for zzzz...... :P

anw, just some maths practice on my part; FA ppl, pls do correct me if i'm wrong on the following: calculations of change in px and strike px for entry when rights are issued:

for gen int (since my kitten happens to be in it):

current px: 89.5c. PE ratio stated as 85.2x. => EPS is 1.05c.

share cap of GIL is 6000mil. there are 2 bond issues which are entitled to the new rights too (3rights  for 5 owned shares). 1st bond issue was 673 mil, 2nd issue 363mil. original share cap of GIL as in 1Q07 report was 5894mil.

=> max share cap of GIL incl all bonds converted = 6930mil. (without = approx 6000mil).

So with rights in, share cap = 9600 mil at conservative, 11088mil incl bonds and rights.

hence using PE ratio of 85.2x (which is really very high, but ok, since this is a growth stock): fair value estimate of GIL post rights is ~56c at conservative, lowest is approx 48c assuming all bonds and all rights converted.

ie, post rights, i'd expect GIL to drop to 48-56c range. likely closer to the higher end, since the 2nd bond issue has a strike px of $1.2, so that means those who bought the bonds are not likely to have converted them.

which means if you buy GIL now at 89.5c, with the 3:5 rights to share ratio, right issue px at USD$0.10 (abt S$0.16), your fair px is about 0.62 per share including rights cost. ie, one actually pays a premium now.  

conclusion: more worthwhile to wait for rights to be issued and traded, and strike in to buy after that. Alt strike px to enter GIL pre-rights is 80c at max.

 is this correct??? note difficult to ascertain fair px for strike entry since the bonds are in effect a 17.5% dilution of the original share cap, so it's a very big variance factor.

 

hey kiddo! whatcha doing online now? researching your kantangs? hehe.

zzz...perfect weather for sleeping...elfie gonna go nap....or mebbe plonk on the piano. haha. cya! :)

monday's gonna be another play day. sit tight and hold fast. haha.  

 

Mani, I agree with you . There is no light to any further improvement.

Here is an abstract from an analyst called "Dr Doom". He mentioned about the seriousness of the housing slump half a year ago and was termed an extremist.

More proof that the problems that initially surfaced in "subprime" are now emerging in other areas was evidenced by the horrendous losses being reported from home builders Beazer and Pulte and several more high profile companies blaming earnings shortfalls on weakness in the housing market. Still more evidence that the credit problems are anything but contained is Wall Street's failure to arrange for the sale of 12 billion in loans necessary to finance the Chrysler buyout. This calls into question the whole private equity buy-out craze, which had been a major driver of recent stock market gains.

Finally, today's GDP numbers revealed very slow growth in consumer spending. As ARM payments reset higher, home equity continues to vanish, and consumer prices continue to rise, actual declines in consumer spending are also likely in future quarters. In fact, to produce a 3.5% annualize gain in 2nd quarter GDP, the government assumes an annualized inflation rate of only 2.7%. My guess is that were a more accurate inflation measure used, the result would reveal what millions of ordinary Americans are actually experiencing -- that the recession has already begun.

 

To giantlow :

I was advised  to seek your advice on how u managed to return the money you owe to your broker firm.

I lost around 25-30k (subject to confimation as still holding to MAP and Starcruise) with 5 broker house. 2 of them is about 10+ thousand each and rest is about less than 2k.

I can't borrow from my family as they do not have much saving. All my saving went to stock contra in covering loss.

Your vast experience may help me handle my stress.

Thanks