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At least it contains some positive info amid the cautionary statements. It's useful for me who are still in self-denial state and read news/info selectively...
yiming2000 ( Date: 24-May-2012 02:02) Posted:
tglim74 - why does it console your soul? All he assumed is $1.90 target price with lots of qualifications about risks. Even God doesn't know what is going to happen.  |
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I don't short stocks....STX OSV is one of the most interesting in SGX as it is very volatile....up and down with wide swing.....
tglim74 ( Date: 23-May-2012 22:45) Posted:
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tglim74 - why does it console your soul? All he assumed is $1.90 target price with lots of qualifications about risks. Even God doesn't know what is going to happen.
Saw this one in other forum. At least it consoles my soul after reading it
Alert: New Parents on the Horizon? All Eyes on a Potential
General Offer
Target price S$1.90
The Maeil Business Newspaper (South Korea's main daily business newspaper)
has reported, citing unidentified industry officials, that the STX Group has reached
an agreement to sell its 50.75% stake in STX OSV to Italian shipbuilding Fincantieri
and private-equity firm, Carlyle Group, at about S$1.60 / share. The report states
that a preliminary agreement is expected to be signed some time this week. STX
OSV has not made any official announcement on this.
The sale price, according to the report – supposedly based on Friday’s close of
S$1.61 - is within our expectations, given the context that the parent has been
eager to raise cash to strengthen its balance sheet. The price, however, may be a
disappointment to investors expecting a more meaningful premium to recent trading
levels.
If the deal goes through, it will most likely trigger a mandatory offer (Fincantieri and
Carlyle appear to be acting in concert) which, under local takeover rules, must be at
a consideration not less than the highest price paid by the offeror within six months
prior to the offer period. The offer document will have to be posted within 21 days of
the offer announcement and the offer has to be kept open for at least 28 days.
Given the minimum consideration stipulated by law, S$1.61 will likely be a near-term
floor for the stock price. We are unable to ascertain Fincantieri’s and Carlyle’s intent
on taking the STX OSV private, but a general offer price close to S$1.61, may
signal that the acquirers are not interested in full control.
We think STX OSV presents a unique investment proposition at this juncture,
in light of potential downside market volatility leading up to Greece’s elections on 17
June 2012 (and implications on its membership in the EU). At current prices - 1) we
believe a minimum general offer price of S$1.61 would act as a put option and limit
downside risk in the near-term and 2) we think a 10-20% upside (S$1.80-1.90
general offer price) is probable should Fincantieri and Carlyle wish to take the
company private.
We continue to like STX OSV's fundamentals and attractive valuations (8.4x forward
P/E) but acknowledge that in the absence of a general offer, the stock is unlikely to
do well in the current de-risking environment. Apart from sizeable order wins, 2Q12
margins may surprise on the upside (driven by write-back of provisions upon
successful project completion 8-9 vessels scheduled for delivery vs 5 in 1Q12) and
act as a price catalyst in the coming months.
Valuation
Our S$1.90 target price is based on a fair-value forward P/E of ~10x (2.9x 2011
P/B). This is a slight premium to average valuations of Singapore-listed small and
mid-cap industry peers, which we feel is justified given STX OSV's superior
operating performance and position as a leading player in a niche market segment.
We base our primary valuation methodology on a P/E multiple as order wins and
earnings outlook are key value drivers for shipyards under most market
circumstances. A cross-check against a P/E-ROE analysis of STX OSV's industry
peer group also backs up our S$1.90 target price.
Risks
In the near-term, we see financing availability as the key risk which could impede
order win momentum. A slower-than-expected order uptake could lead to concerns
over earnings visibility beyond FY12. Other downside risks that could prevent the
stock from reaching our price target include: i) Margin pressures arising from fall in
OSV prices/increases in equipment prices ii) Execution risks resulting in costoverruns
or delay penalties iii) Difficulty in collecting customer receivables,
especially upon vessel completion and iv) Macroeconomic concerns (e.g. renewed
concerns over fiscal problems in Europe hard-landing in China), which may result
in increased equity risk premium.
James did you short this one?
I remember I bought Genting at about 30cents ++ last time (of course I didn't hold it till now). Now if I tell those who buy Genting that the counter will drop to IPO price, I'll be condemned by them
Even years back I bought Kep Corp at $ 2.70++ (of course I didn't hold till now). Now if I tell those who buy Kep Corp that this counter will go back to < $3 again will be condemned by them
Looking at the current market situation, those who use the 'short' strategy will most likely gain. Poor me need to wait long long in order to exit...
Btw, still wish all of you HUAT in the bear market
bryancbq ( Date: 23-May-2012 20:06) Posted:
jamesng, if i didnt remember wrongly, when it was at 1.15, u were quite bullish about this counter right? Was it you? mmm..i might have remember wrongly.
why the change in stance?
jamesng ( Date: 23-May-2012 18:46) Posted:
I beg to differ...it is because of the announcement of the sale that the share price is so high..........please go and check what had happen in the past...
If the sale is cancelled then good luck.......
Ever wonder the reason why STX Europe only ipo STX OSV at 79 cents if the fundamental is so good....and europe especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, ITALTY etc are in trouble..... |
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And the sale is supposed to be much higher than 1.60 earlier..........and with current situation in Europe......the buyer is from italy which is also one of the affected country....
Have you wonder the reason for the 10 cents dividend?
At 1.60, it is bad...but if it don't go through, then we will see.........................
Because it had gone up because of the announcement of the sale.....
bryancbq ( Date: 23-May-2012 20:06) Posted:
jamesng, if i didnt remember wrongly, when it was at 1.15, u were quite bullish about this counter right? Was it you? mmm..i might have remember wrongly.
why the change in stance?
jamesng ( Date: 23-May-2012 18:46) Posted:
I beg to differ...it is because of the announcement of the sale that the share price is so high..........please go and check what had happen in the past...
If the sale is cancelled then good luck.......
Ever wonder the reason why STX Europe only ipo STX OSV at 79 cents if the fundamental is so good....and europe especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, ITALTY etc are in trouble..... |
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if Carlyle buy for $1.6. Shouldn't be the floor price is $1.6, unless the buy didn't go through???
Also they should give offer for the rest of stocks which some house predict the offer to be $1.8~$1.9
Let see whether it can be push below $1.46.....
jamesng, if i didnt remember wrongly, when it was at 1.15, u were quite bullish about this counter right? Was it you? mmm..i might have remember wrongly.
why the change in stance?
jamesng ( Date: 23-May-2012 18:46) Posted:
I beg to differ...it is because of the announcement of the sale that the share price is so high..........please go and check what had happen in the past...
If the sale is cancelled then good luck.......
Ever wonder the reason why STX Europe only ipo STX OSV at 79 cents if the fundamental is so good....and europe especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, ITALTY etc are in trouble......
eddyte ( Date: 23-May-2012 11:00) Posted:
Friends,
STX OSV is a fantastic stock fundamentally. Not many company can have such beautiful financial performance.
Abt the takeover or sell by STX Corp. Its been there for a long time. It is also because of this expected sale...STX OSV is still trading at PE 7/8x, else the stock should be higher...
So..dont be confused by the noises.
Technically what was said earlier is correct. 1.485 could be tested on knee jerk reaction to whatever unexpected news coming... After wards, its all cleared for the stock to run based on its fundamental.
Unless u think u have studied enough to replace a super stock like STX OSV in the present downtrend market...I dont see why we have to sell this stock....A good stock is hard to come by...
Keep the good ones, dump the lousy ones...
Thinking : If Carlyle is buying at 1.60....Should I sell at 1.54 now or buy?? Am I smarter than the fund manager to know that STXOSV will drop.....??? I am just an ordinary investor..... |
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I beg to differ...it is because of the announcement of the sale that the share price is so high..........please go and check what had happen in the past...
If the sale is cancelled then good luck.......
Ever wonder the reason why STX Europe only ipo STX OSV at 79 cents if the fundamental is so good....and europe especially Greece, Spain, Portugal, ITALTY etc are in trouble......
eddyte ( Date: 23-May-2012 11:00) Posted:
Friends,
STX OSV is a fantastic stock fundamentally. Not many company can have such beautiful financial performance.
Abt the takeover or sell by STX Corp. Its been there for a long time. It is also because of this expected sale...STX OSV is still trading at PE 7/8x, else the stock should be higher...
So..dont be confused by the noises.
Technically what was said earlier is correct. 1.485 could be tested on knee jerk reaction to whatever unexpected news coming... After wards, its all cleared for the stock to run based on its fundamental.
Unless u think u have studied enough to replace a super stock like STX OSV in the present downtrend market...I dont see why we have to sell this stock....A good stock is hard to come by...
Keep the good ones, dump the lousy ones...
Thinking : If Carlyle is buying at 1.60....Should I sell at 1.54 now or buy?? Am I smarter than the fund manager to know that STXOSV will drop.....??? I am just an ordinary investor..... |
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Agreed, I've said many times here, no reason to sell unless to take profits and shy away from current downside market.
Similarily, no reason to buy too. this counters need patient but on long run it's still good.
However, don't forget it does get affected by EU crisis.
Ultimately, if the price is right for u, then just go for it.
In short terms, i would beg to differ that a coy's fundementals sometime have no impact on their stock price. it depend on the BBs who are holding the share whether they buy or whether they sell :)
eddyte ( Date: 23-May-2012 11:00) Posted:
Friends,
STX OSV is a fantastic stock fundamentally. Not many company can have such beautiful financial performance.
Abt the takeover or sell by STX Corp. Its been there for a long time. It is also because of this expected sale...STX OSV is still trading at PE 7/8x, else the stock should be higher...
So..dont be confused by the noises.
Technically what was said earlier is correct. 1.485 could be tested on knee jerk reaction to whatever unexpected news coming... After wards, its all cleared for the stock to run based on its fundamental.
Unless u think u have studied enough to replace a super stock like STX OSV in the present downtrend market...I dont see why we have to sell this stock....A good stock is hard to come by...
Keep the good ones, dump the lousy ones...
Thinking : If Carlyle is buying at 1.60....Should I sell at 1.54 now or buy?? Am I smarter than the fund manager to know that STXOSV will drop.....??? I am just an ordinary investor..... |
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Friends,
STX OSV is a fantastic stock fundamentally. Not many company can have such beautiful financial performance.
Abt the takeover or sell by STX Corp. Its been there for a long time. It is also because of this expected sale...STX OSV is still trading at PE 7/8x, else the stock should be higher...
So..dont be confused by the noises.
Technically what was said earlier is correct. 1.485 could be tested on knee jerk reaction to whatever unexpected news coming... After wards, its all cleared for the stock to run based on its fundamental.
Unless u think u have studied enough to replace a super stock like STX OSV in the present downtrend market...I dont see why we have to sell this stock....A good stock is hard to come by...
Keep the good ones, dump the lousy ones...
Thinking : If Carlyle is buying at 1.60....Should I sell at 1.54 now or buy?? Am I smarter than the fund manager to know that STXOSV will drop.....??? I am just an ordinary investor.....
Hey friend!
Don't lose your confidence, alot of stocks may now look tempting, but beware!
the low can always go lower, vice versa.
At least you are now not stuck with 20 lots where share price probably going to cont'd spiraling downwards :)
get ur cash first and wait for the hunting season.
it will be wise to stay clear for now.
have a good day! hope u huat in other counter ^^
yiming2000 ( Date: 23-May-2012 00:30) Posted:
Hey friend litleboi. I dumped my 20 lots when the price bounced up to 1.63. Lost $2,200 but $2000 dividend cut net loss to $200. Good lesson for newbie like me who bought in at 1.73 to get dividends. Not easy to get red wine or even lim kopi. 
littleboi ( Date: 22-May-2012 19:07) Posted:
Hey friend, yiming! how are u with this? are u still holding or did u join me and let go and get some moeny..
Am now busy with my work not much time to monitor...doesn't seem to have much action.
I think the strong holder of this stock haven't let go but bewear when EU situation get nasty, once they let go, this one prepare to plunge.
The takeover too hype up. Might have to wait some time i think.
Im quite pessimistic with global situation, looking at gold and preserving my cash now for some bargain hunting when STI plunge.
I'm not vested in this, dad is old time holder, he still has around 30lots, not much.
Hope u Huat if u still holding |
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PAGING FOR STI? STI ard hehe... pm me... looking for u... hehe... u said u were here... so i look for u here...
Hey friend litleboi. I dumped my 20 lots when the price bounced up to 1.63. Lost $2,200 but $2000 dividend cut net loss to $200. Good lesson for newbie like me who bought in at 1.73 to get dividends. Not easy to get red wine or even lim kopi.
littleboi ( Date: 22-May-2012 19:07) Posted:
Hey friend, yiming! how are u with this? are u still holding or did u join me and let go and get some moeny..
Am now busy with my work not much time to monitor...doesn't seem to have much action.
I think the strong holder of this stock haven't let go but bewear when EU situation get nasty, once they let go, this one prepare to plunge.
The takeover too hype up. Might have to wait some time i think.
Im quite pessimistic with global situation, looking at gold and preserving my cash now for some bargain hunting when STI plunge.
I'm not vested in this, dad is old time holder, he still has around 30lots, not much.
Hope u Huat if u still holding.
yiming2000 ( Date: 22-May-2012 01:06) Posted:
Good decision. If you bought below 1.65, cut losses and sell. 
If you bought above 1.65, then don't abort and hold onto your baby. If you are lucky, you will be blessed with a beautiful child. If not, don't be anxious about a miscarriage because your baby is dead anyway.  |
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Am still quite confused on this takeover stuff.
Can it be the case that only the parent company sells their 51% stake to the Italy's company and it does not affect the ordinary stakeholder? Or due to the 51% stake, if the bidders or buyers buy all the 51% they are obliged to buy all the shares from us ordinary shareholders as well? (SGX rules??)
Confused...confused...
Btw it's almost time to cut loss and seek an emergency exit.
Thanks for sharing James.
jamesng ( Date: 22-May-2012 23:21) Posted:
Worse case is the sale is not through....
If the sale go through at $1.60, price will not go above $1.60. Then it depends if there is a take over. If there is, not too bad. If there is not, I think the price will drop further as current price is due to the sale of the 51% stake. Not to forget they just pay the 10 cents dividend and europe situation. Note that the buyer is from Italty.
If the sale go through at lower than $1.6 (current buyer drop out and second hghest bidder come into picture). The same above apply except now the highest price is lower than $1.6
tglim74 ( Date: 22-May-2012 22:15) Posted:
Your words make me more worried as I am still caught in the high entry point.
Was told by my friend to short this one to cut loss as the the parent company has set 1.60 for the highest point for bidder, the price won't go beyond this point. Any short at 1.57 and above has higher successful rate. Furthermore, the so-called takeover is a myth plus the company is in Europe...
Any gurus here for advice? |
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Worse case is the sale is not through....
If the sale go through at $1.60, price will not go above $1.60. Then it depends if there is a take over. If there is, not too bad. If there is not, I think the price will drop further as current price is due to the sale of the 51% stake. Not to forget they just pay the 10 cents dividend and europe situation. Note that the buyer is from Italty.
If the sale go through at lower than $1.6 (current buyer drop out and second hghest bidder come into picture). The same above apply except now the highest price is lower than $1.6
tglim74 ( Date: 22-May-2012 22:15) Posted:
Your words make me more worried as I am still caught in the high entry point.
Was told by my friend to short this one to cut loss as the the parent company has set 1.60 for the highest point for bidder, the price won't go beyond this point. Any short at 1.57 and above has higher successful rate. Furthermore, the so-called takeover is a myth plus the company is in Europe...
Any gurus here for advice?
jamesng ( Date: 22-May-2012 18:04) Posted:
But without the take over, this stock would be trading at 1.1 - 1.3 range...it is with the take over, the price surge.....if you own this stock from ipo till now....
Not to forget the situation in Europe now...... |
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On Tuesday, STX OSV re-tests the resistance at $1.59 and closed at $1.565 with LOW volume of 6.35 million shares traded.
During the past 10 bars, there have been 4 white candles and 6 black
candles for a net of 2 black candles. During the past 50 bars, there
have been 16 white candles and 26 black candles for a net of 10 black
candles.
Both RSI & MACD are bearish as RSI trend downwards.
Important Resistance of STX OSV: $1.59
Immediate Support of STX OSV: $1.485
Currently prices are resisted by 20/100 days MA at $1.59
For the past 2 trading sessions, .............
READ MORE
Your words make me more worried as I am still caught in the high entry point.
Was told by my friend to short this one to cut loss as the the parent company has set 1.60 for the highest point for bidder, the price won't go beyond this point. Any short at 1.57 and above has higher successful rate. Furthermore, the so-called takeover is a myth plus the company is in Europe...
Any gurus here for advice?
jamesng ( Date: 22-May-2012 18:04) Posted:
But without the take over, this stock would be trading at 1.1 - 1.3 range...it is with the take over, the price surge.....if you own this stock from ipo till now....
Not to forget the situation in Europe now.......
tglim74 ( Date: 22-May-2012 16:20) Posted:
Think we can just forget about the takeover and focus on the fundamental.
If this is a good counter, market will respond appropriately. If it's over-priced then the price will be corrected to the reasonable value.
Just the recent price ($1.60) released in the so-called takeover news has somehow caused some impact to this counter.
Good luck! =) |
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