SPC   

SPC

chinkiasu. I will advise to trade with care for those that had super cheong today.

For me, I should have shorted SPC at $7.95 before lunch and buy back at $7.80, but some how, I don't feel right and decided against it.

Now, it looks a right decision to do it. But its on hindsight, so I will montior the price movement today and will decide whether to enter for tomorrow trading, based on crude pricing and DJ movement tonight.

If I go in, I will trade with small lots of 5~8 lots, as the current price is very close or exceeded TP for this year and correction looks to be coming any time soon. So that I will be able to retreat quickly with minimum loss. PBR is a bit on the high side. I don't intend to compare with next year PBR yet as nowaday, market swing is too fast and unpredictable.

 

dear Idesa168, I wish I can tell SPC what to do.... the fact is I suspect the BBs realise that DBSV research report are way out in their profit projections for this counter (as we all have suspected) ...and the target price should revised to at least 8.0

 

dear Pinnacle, you misunderstand me...my point in asking Idesa168 that question is to learn if it is better to move in an out of a good counter (ie. do trading) or to stay vest all the way come what may...it was idesa168 who suggested the question...

btw, how would you make money out of this super bull, any ideas?

 

many thanks smallchange, based on this, SPC earnings per share yr07 is definately above 1.00 so current  PE is now below 8x... this means price at 8.00 is really value for money

 

Hi CKS,

Oil: Refining interest

Niraj Bhatt & Amriteshwar Mathur / Mumbai September 22, 2007

The regional benchmark Singapore refining margin is hovering at $5.2- 5.3 a barrel compared with $4.75 a barrel in the September 2006 quarter, point out analysts. This improvement in the regional benchmark is attributed to stronger demand for products such as diesel, across several Asian countries. The Singapore refining margin was, however, at $9.5 a barrel in the June 2007 quarter.   Meanwhile, state-owned oil marketing companies such as Bharat Petroleum Corporation and Hindustan Petroleum Corporation?s GRMs are estimated at $4-4.25 a barrel, add analysts. BPCL?s GRMs at its Mumbai refinery in the September 2006 quarter were at $ 2.94 per barrel. In the case of RIL, its GRMs are estimated at $12 a barrel compared with $9.1 in Q2 FY 07, thanks to efficient purchasing, coupled with its ability to process heavy and sour crude. Sequentially, however, the regional benchmark Singapore refining margin is lower than that of Q1 FY08, and that?s attributed largely to seasonal factors. For instance, the peak driving season typically takes place in North America in May and June each year, which strongly pushes up demand for petroleum products and the resulting rise in GRMs in the June 2007 quarter.

Note: GRM stands for gross refining margin

http://www.business-standard.com/opinionanalysis/storypage.php?leftnm=4&subLeft=3&chklogin=Y&autono=298861&tab=r

 

Wa... So happening!! SPC... one word ---> CHEONG AR!!!!!.... $8+++... gogogogo... keke.. like betting horse .. haha.. run run run.... keke...

 

CKS, pls dun ask SPC to cheong to 8.00 so soon within a week. Do you still rem our experience with SPC from 6.00-7.00 in 5 trading sessions and it drops like a stone later on. I would suggest that it crawl up slowly without any fund taking notice of this counter. Cheers....remember, SLOWLY BUT UP! I am waiting at $15.00...hehehe.

 

For me, no hindsight, no foresight in SPC at current trading price. Infact I invested 1 lot "BLINDLY", intend to just throw under the pillow. Also my 1 lot is to support CKS, who had so much SPC share...hehehe! My main investment portfolio will still be in China counters, at this moment.

 

chinkiasu. No point looking at hind sight. Nothing going to change. It will only affect one's moral and correct decision making.

We should be looking forward and try to make more kopi $ out of this super bull.

 

 

hi smallchange... do you have refining margins for Singapore or AsiaPacific???

 

seriously Idesa168, now from hind sight would you have sold your SPC shares??  btw it has touched 7.9 and I think should break 8.00 this week....

 

Extracts from a report:

August 20, 2007
Topic Report: Refining Margins Update

 

by Michele Markey

 Crack Spread: Refining involves ?cracking? crude oil into its major components.  A refiner?s margin is the spread between the price of its products and the cost of crude oil.  For example, a refiner might produce two barrels of gasoline and one barrel of heating oil from three barrels of crude oil.  A 3-2-1 crack spread (weighted by two times the gasoline price plus one times the heating oil price minus three times the crude oil price) can be used to estimate the refining margin.

Gasoline Markets: The collapse of refining margins is primarily due to the fall in retail and wholesale gasoline prices since the Independence Day holiday on July 4, 2007 when U.S. refineries came back on line after finishing unplanned maintenance and high crude prices. 

Gasoline prices normally drop after Labor Day (first Monday in September) as this marks the end of the summer driving season.   This year however, gasoline prices at the pump have fallen over 28 cents in the last four weeks and spot wholesale prices have dropped by more than 39 cents since July.    

Distillate Markets: U.S. refiners typically use more light-sweet grades of crude oil during the summer season to maximize gasoline production.   As demand rose for gasoline this summer, it also caused the demand for light-sweet crude to rise as well.  Refinery margins narrowed as sweet crude oil prices such as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) or Brent rose at a more rapid rate over the price of gasoline.  In some instances, particularly in Europe the price of light-sweet grades such as Brent rose so high that refining margins dropped to unprofitable levels. 

A warmer-than-normal winter would lower demand for heating oil.  If this occurs, refiners might have no choice but to cut refinery runs.  Weak heating oil demand could put more downward pressure on crude oil prices.  Refining margins may not return to the high levels seen earlier this year until gasoline season next summer.

(The full report can be viewed at http://www.apachecorp.com/Explore/Explore_Features/20070820/Topic_Report_Refining_Margin_Update/)

 

SPC, ALL THE WAY!!!!! VESTED 1 LOT....hahaha!!!

 

Oct 8 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell on Monday, extending the previous session's losses, as investors turned their focus to a slowdown in the U.S. economy after hurricane concerns in the Atlantic abated.

U.S. crude fell 36 cents to $80.86 a barrel in Globex electronic trading by 0108 GMT.

Oil settled down 22 cents at $81.22 a barrel on Friday, as upbeat U.S. employment data failed to convince investors that demand for energy would rise considerably in coming months, as a high interest rate environment and a slumping housing sector were expected to drag on growth.

London Brent crude shed 26 cents to $78.64.

"An accelerating downturn in the U.S. or global economy could erase oil demand growth and we intend keeping a close eye on critical signposts," UBS' commodities analyst Gordon Ramsay said in a note to clients.

The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in September and job growth figures for July and August were revised higher, but the dollar continued to fall against other major currencies, as investors bet that the Federal Reserve would still cut U.S. interest rates again.

Worries of weather-related supply disruptions abated after the U.S. National Hurricane Centre said on Friday it did not expect any of six Atlantic low pressure systems to develop into a tropical cyclone, forcing oil prices to retreat further.

[ID:nN05177139] Ramsay said he expected oil prices to ease in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, weighed down by a modest U.S. economic slowdown and a relatively warm winter in the Northern Hemisphere.

Other factors adding to oil's short-term selling pressure include the fading of hurricanes season in the Atlantic as well as lower crude demand as refineries in the United States shut down for maintenance, BNP Paribas said in a research note.

But speculation that oil cartel OPEC could cut crude production from November provided some support to prices.

Commenting on the decision to hike output in November, Iranian caretaker Oil Minister Gholamhossein Nozari said on Saturday OPEC could revise a decision to boost crude production from November if that increase pushed prices lower than was economical for producers, the ISNA news agency reported.

[ID:nBLA647857] In a bid to cool oil prices, which have jumped over 37 percent since the start of the year to a record of $83.90 a barrel last month, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreed to raise output by 500,000 barrels per day from Nov. 1.

Speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil market increased net long positions in the week to Oct. 2, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.

Speculators in the RBOB gasoline market trimmed net longs as did speculators in the heating oil market, the CFTC report said.

 

Hi livermore... look time no hear from you on this thread....

Eastonbay has a good point, but personally after tracking SPC stocks now for some while...  it seems to me that we should be more concerned about SPC refinery margins, and then Tapis crude prices. i.e  more Asia pacific, Singapore oil market then about US oil market...  

but for academic discussion, what do you think a $100 crude oil price would mean to SPC share price...?

 

Livermore, from what I know abt USA (not too sure abt Europe because I've forgotten how it was there). Usually the pump price is higher during summer than in winter because summer is  the driving seasons whereas people stay in during winter. Stress "pump price" here and not sure of how the heating gas/oil affect the demand of crude oil.

 

I ususally agree with you on most of the issues... but have to disagree with u this time around. As you said, you read the article one year ago and some said it will reach US$100 one day. Anyone can make this kind of prediction. (haha, i also can) It has been one year.. and in fact during this one year it has gone up to $70+ and came back down all the way to US$55before rising to where it is now.

 

 

 

 

oic... idesa168... this is really long term planning....

btw... have you considered that your great grand child might have to take boat ride to travel around in 2040 when the artic ocean completely melts???  would there be a SPC refinery?????

 

CKS, my son is just 3 yr old lah! I am keeping my 1 lot of SPC for GREAT GRAND CHILD...hehehe! Pacific Andes & Trek, are u in it? I will go look up into these 2.

 

idesa168 sir, may I suggest Pacific Andes?  Trek?