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dear Idesa168, yes indeed, we have months ago said that the 2007 eps would indeed be above 80cts. Below are my posts on this aspect...
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dear 007... I think we should do some calculations before we get too carried away by the pessimism....
assuming your RM for 3Q07 & 4Q07 is conservative $4... this works out to be profit of 4 x 1.51 x 140000 x 180 / 515.582 million which is equal to 29.5cts. We gave earlier estimated Ouyong upstream contribution at 9.8cts (6,000 bpd x 70 (assume crude price $70 net extraction cost $20 x1.51 exchange rate to S$) x120 / 515,582). Together with the already in the bag eps of 56cts for 1H07, the most conservative yr07 eps will be 56+29.5+9.8 we have a eps of 95.3cts which at 8x PE will be $7.62... here I have not set aside admin costs but I also did not factor trading profits and the current upstreams etc.. |
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Dear Smallchange... I am fully aware of DBS research forecast dated 25th, they have also comment earlier this month and I have made my own comments. Bottomline the analyst for reasons best know to him is ultra conservative and even some calculations do not add up.... in my earlier comments I have pointed out that even with their refinery margins lowered to the levels they talked about, their figures are really skewed to the very low side for reasons best known to them (pls check my earlier posts, I am very tired repeating the same things and do not wish to argue: all i ask of you is to take their refining margins and work it out for yourselves) the eps should still be about 1.00 so you just have to decide on your own... perhaps we just wait for the results no point arguing on this... the facts will reveal itself in a 100 days time...
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I just checked my post of 4th August, and I quote
"assuming the RM for 3Q07 & 4Q07 is conservative $4... this works out to be profit of 4 x 1.51 x 140000 x 180 / 515.582 million which is equal to 29.5cts. We gave earlier estimated Ouyong upstream contribution at 9.8cts (6,000 bpd x 70 (assume crude price $70 net extraction cost $20 x1.51 exchange rate to S$) x120 / 515,582). Together with the already in the bag eps of 56cts for 1H07, the most conservative yr07 eps will be 56+29.5+9.8 we have a eps of 95.3cts which at 8x PE will be $7.62... here I have not set aside admin costs but I also did not factor trading profits and the current upstreams etc..
now based on fundamentals... with margin even at $6, surely that Merry Lynch (lynching SPC) analyst seems to me to be pushing some agenda when he says it is not worth the current price... if not he is talking thro his rear...
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Thinking to load up more...
, how someone sell cheap.
EPS 21.73¢ for this quarter, total 9 months is 76.02¢. CKS, do you still remeber out target/hopes for 80¢ EPS? Not it is for sure surpassing our expectation. I am sure this counter wil do well timorrow. The whole day, share price was down, only at the last minutes that the buy up was agressive, adding another 10¢ to the share price. So I have HIGH hopes that SPC will surpass $9.00 tomorrow, maybe craeting another new high. Cheers, vested.
Maybe SPC will be the only survival tomorrow.
But just maybe...
Singapore Petroleum says Q3 net profit quadruples
Singapore Petroleum Co Ltd (SPC) reported on Wednesday a 330 percent rise in third-quarter net profit.
The city-state's oil refining and marketing firm said it earned a net profit of S$99.85 million ($68 million) for the July-Sept period, compared with S$23.2 million in the same quarter of 2006.
Keppel Corporation Ltd. , the world's number-one offshore oil drilling-rigs builder, owns about 45 percent of SPC which equally shares ownership of a 285,000-barrel-a-day refinery in Singapore with US oil major Chevron .
SPC also owns upstream exploration and production assets, with concessions off the shores of Australia, Cambodia, China, Indonesia and Vietnam. The company also holds interests in three natural gas transmission pipelines linking Singapore to fields in Indonesia and Malaysia.
Singapore Petroleum Company Limited has completed its US$223million (about S$334.5million) Bohai Bay acquisition. Bohai is now SPC?s largest producing asset. It is also its second asset in China and its eighth exploration and production asset. Bohai aligns with SPC?s long-term strategy to grow its business through upstream activities, and to tap the vast potential of China, both as a major oil and gas producing region, and as a key market.
Thank you Eagle Sir. Split...no lah, not at this price.
Expect 3Q results tomorrow evening...hope the results confirm the prospects....then break $10 barrier...then share split
a la Keppel Corp....
Dear SPC Comrade,
Can anyone tell me when SPC will release the 3Q earning? Should be within weeks right?
Oil falls to $87
LONDON (Reuters) - Oil fell nearly $2 to stand near $87 a barrel on Monday as financial markets tumbled on growing concerns over the health of the U.S. economy, triggering a correction from recent record highs.
At 1155 GMT (7:55 a.m. EDT) U.S. crude was down $1.73 at $86.84 a barrel, off lows of $86.54, retreating further from the $90.07 all-time high it hit on Friday. London Brent crude was $1.83 lower at $81.96.
The dollar bounced back from a record low against the euro, as European and Asian stocks fell sharply after a flurry of weak U.S. corporate results sparked concerns the world's top economy was heading for a recession.
U.S. oil has rallied more than 10 percent since October 8, climbing towards the inflation-adjusted high of $101.70 hit in April 1980, a year after the Iranian revolution.
A weak dollar and surging energy costs have increased worries over the health of the U.S. economy, already battered by the crisis in the subprime mortgage sector.
Despite oil's slide since Friday's all-time high, analysts said mounting tensions between Turkey and Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq would continue to offer underlying support and keep prices close to record territory.
News Iran's chief nuclear negotiator had resigned also raised concerns of more instability in the Middle East. Analysts say the man named to replace Ali Larijani could present the West with a harder line in a long-running dispute over Tehran's atomic ambitions.
Kuwait's acting oil minister said on Monday geopolitics and a lack of refining capacity was behind a surge in world oil prices and that a 500,000-barrels per day (bpd) output increase already agreed by OPEC would positively affect the market.
"We think that the production rise by 500,000 bpd will affect positively (the price)," Mohammad al-Olaim told reporters on the sidelines of an oil conference.
"It is in our interest that the price is appropriate for consumers and producers."
However, others contend OPEC's output increase from November 1 is too little and too late.
"To bring the oil price down from its current level, OPEC's members need to put more oil onto the market and allow commercial inventories to be replenished," the London-based Centre for Global Energy Studies said in a report.
Meanwhile, speculators on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil market increased their net long positions in the week to October 16 as part of the rally that sent prices to a record $90 a barrel.
Crude longs rose to 87,988, the highest level since mid-August, from 69,190.
lol...yah I like the number 168....sure win liao!
I queued SMRT 1.68 coz your nick also 168. :p
SPC looks good with so many eight.
good choice lah SMRT...I saw 1.69 today, but my $$ with SPC. But today SPC not too good. Hope tomoroow better...Crude Oil now $88. So tomorrow SPC should be 8.80? Cheers.
I jeep SMRT (Sure Make Regardless of Trend) with the money from its dividend (so its not 50+ lots.) : )
jeep some more this morning @8.65...
SPC rise means oil price rise... means all other counter fall.
If I get into Creative...I think I will need a saviour...lol. I was punting on those counters that were volatile, China counter like Cosco, Yangzijiang, Sinostar & Synear. I closed all positions anticipating China to raise interest rate and all China counters "might" go south. I parked my $$ with SPC 2 days ago, which I think is a right choice so far. Short SPC, dun play play. Can be lucky once but not twice or three times. I shorted once, but regret although made some kopi $$. How can I short my beloved counter...hehehe!!! SPC potential $10.00, and I can smell it. Who cares to ride with me...hehehe!!! Cheers.
Hi Kilroy....anyhow tikam one lah... I am with SPC now...for good...hehehe!!! Cheers. Creative..neah, died long time ago liao!
idesa168, everywhere you go, you hit jackpot huh? Wanna be saviour to those who vested in Creative, LMA, Jurtech etc? hehe.
Expected to go up, but not this high!!!
So shorted this bugger at $8.95 and covered back at $8.80.
Tks SPC for the kopi $.
Have a nice weekend.
