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wow...vicious sell down on SPC siah...this is really is puzzling...typical sell on news siah :P
say...aren't there any hurricance or typoon around US mexico gulf now? thought this will be the season leh... :P
Don know why SPC dropped .45 dollars today and stay at $8.35. I sold all my SPC shares on Mon and Tue at $8.70 and $8.60 respectively owing to US Black Mon syndrom. Cheers.
power!! queuing at 6.88.. cheers.
Wow, the analysis by DBS really has some 'substance' huh?
idesa168, what price are you queuing?
Wah...luckily I withdarw my que @8.40 before it plunge to now 8.30. I will que again...Cheers.
SPC had fallen below 5 days support.
Next level of support at $8.30.
If that support is breached too, it will fall below $8.
Both RSI and MACD is showing the trend of decline where RSI is still in over-bought region.
DBS Vickers - Singapore Petroleum
No longer cheap compared to regional peers Fully Valued S$8.80 (Downgrade from Hold) Price Target : 12-month S$ 6.85
Story: 3Q07 earnings came in slightly above expectations, with net profit jumping 330% y-o-y to $99.8m. The jump was exaggerated owing to inventory write-down of $71m in 3Q06. Refining margins declined, though, to US$5/bbl from US$9/bbl in 2Q07.
Point: We expect the benchmark Reuters Singapore complex refining margin to remain moderate at US$5-7/bbl in 4Q07 and average US$7.3/bbl and US$6.8/bbl for 2007 and 2008, respectively. 4Q07 earnings should exhibit strong y-o-y growth due to the exceptionally weak refining margins last year, but q-o-q should be weaker or flat. FY07F net profit should surge 56%, fueled mainly by strong improvement in refining margin. FY08 net profit should grow just modestly 7% driven by E&P growth.
Relevance: After the recent strong rally, although SPCs valuations may still appear inexpensive relative to domestic stocks, the counter is no longer cheap compared to regional refinery peers. With just moderate growth in FY08 from E&P compared to major refining capacity expansions at some peers, it is unlikely that SPC share price will continue to outperform.
With the current share price being significantly above our sum-of-parts target price of S$6.85, we downgrade SPC rating to Fully Valued (from Hold).
nickyng Veteran Posted: 25-Oct-2007 10:00 x 0 x 0 * Alert Admin well..just follow the trend and SHORT cant be wrong too far !! :P i prefer to SHORT STX PO instead..hee nickyng..p
nickyng...pls shoot it down to 7 or below...thanks...cheers... :)
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idesa168
Veteran |
Posted: 25-Oct-2007 09:51 |
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Good Q3 result but share price plunge, not justified leh....jeep more! Have faith in SPC. Cheers. |
yes! I have faith in spc. Next q result wont be bad, considering crude oil at US$88++ now.
current price factor in Q3 result. Save to hold at current level.
I am not short term trader. see no point selling now.
well..just follow the trend and SHORT cant be wrong too far !! :P
i prefer to SHORT STX PO instead..hee
Some thinks that the current price MAY have been factored into the Q3 result thus the short term profit taking. Also Shplayer points out a good observation and short deliberation which needs to be kept in check for the last quarter.
Good Q3 result but share price plunge, not justified leh....jeep more! Have faith in SPC. Cheers.
> SPC reported strong 3Q07 results with the net profit coming in at S$99.9m
> The Bloomberg full year net profit consensus is S$413.05m which is a quarterly average of S$103m
> SPC net profit for the first 3 quarters is S$391.2m.
If we take the bloomberg figures, yr2007 eps would be 80.1cts, but if we take actual SPC net profit plus quarterly estimated average we can estimate yr2007 to be $391.2 +103 = 494.2 or eps of 96cts. If we take PE of 10 as good price, then this stock should be $9.60 12months target price.
Wow... BBs are selling down this counter.
71 lots at $8.6!!!
Its a kateks haven here today?
| 09:25:44 | 8.600 | 1,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:25:36 | 8.600 | 3,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:25:29 | 8.600 | 2,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:25:28 | 8.600 | 3,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:24:38 | 8.600 | 10,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:24:30 | 8.600 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:24:15 | 8.600 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
| 09:24:10 | 8.600 | 71,000 | Sell Down |
| 09:23:08 | 8.650 | 5,000 | Buy Up |
Whilst the 3Q 07 results were very commendable, I think there is an area of concern going forward.
If you refer to the 3Q commentary, the lower turnover was 'due to fewer cargo fuel oil imports from the M.E'. I read this a a tightening of feed stock supply. Furthermore, last nights US weekly oil data report showed a drawdown of crude vs expected 'build'.
SPC's share of SRC's capacity is about 142k bpd. To date, SPC's upstream ventures are up to 11k bpd. Hence, if feedstock supply gets tighter, it may affect SPC's overall business.
I don't think it is a major concern at the moment, but certainly, investors would be prudent to watch out for signs of this worsening.
Just my opinion.
Can we see $9.20 today?
Great CKS, we can meet one day, my invitation. I think all places got one for one during Happy Hours. It's been a while since I last touch that. I hope we can get a few stocks craze for a drink and we can chat all night on stock mkt...hehehe!
One question, regarding the acquisition Bohai Oilfield. Which quarter are they going to factor this Investment fee of $233m. I have realised that this Q3 SPC's earning is $99m, although is 4 folds from last quarter of 23m, but last year SPC write-off $71m. If put this figure together SPC earning is just a mere $5m. However, if Bohai Investment is factored in this quarter, then the earning is a big jump of $233m + $5m.
sure idesa168, I love to drink... not like goldfish (they gulp air).. but like chui xia.. the more I drink, the less drunk I am.. but I think 10 shares more then enough leh... it would be $100 and at Temasik on Tuesday or Thursday we get 1 for 1 tiger...
CKS, we must meet one day for a drink. I can withdraw 30 shares of SPC for that...I know you drink like goldfish...hehehe!!!