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Yeah from .50cents to .37 cents. Wow.... over 25% drop.....
Seems like fourth quarter result is out. Any view on the results?
Pull up a chart on Gallant Ventures. What does it tell you? It is the best canary in the coalmine out there. When all the other stocks are looking expensive the crappy brokers dredge up Gallant, and come up with some nebulous net present value calculation that makes it look cheap. What happens next? The bear market begins. This is a pre Asian crisis dog of a story that just won't die. Who the hell is ever going to go to Bintan on a weekly basis other than cab drivers looking for a bit on the side? Do you really think the average Singaporean or expat is going to go to miserable Tanah Merah ferry terminal, schlep through customs, sit on a sea-sick enclosed ferry, get off, deal with slow and chaotic customs, then drive half an hour. When was the last time you went to Bintan? This is a dog.
what happened to gallant anyone know ??
CHIONG LIOW ARH...... HUAT ARH!!!..... 
More extracts from Kim Eng
Ample room available for re‐rating
In our valuation method, we have made a few conservative assumptions.
Gallant’s industrial park business has been valued at breakeven levels.
However, management has guided that their industrial parks are actually
seeing new and returning customers as wages in other locations such as
China have increased significantly over the past few years. For Lagoi Bay
land sales, we have factored in a 10‐year period for it to be fully sold and
have used prevailing market prices to estimate revenue for future deals.
Management, on the other hand, is aiming to achieve completion of sale
for Lagoi Bay in 5 years.
Another potential catalyst is the attractiveness of Bintan as a home for
commuters, which in turn will determine the demand for residential
developments in Lagoi Bay. The key in the success is the overall
commuting time, for which Gallant is committed to reduce over the next
few years by offering express immigration clearance services and having
direct access to Singapore’s Central Business District by ferry.
Earnings to double in 2011 but share price a fraction of previous peak
Gallant’s earnings have been muted in the past few years as it was unable
to offset taxes incurred for its industrial park and utilities businesses
against losses of unprofitable subsidiaries. But from this year, we believe
earnings should receive a significant lift from ongoing land sales and
contribution from its iron ore subsidiary.
We expect the company to post a net profit of $9.3m for FY2010 (EPS of
0.4 cents), buoyed by the recognition of land sales revenue by as much as
$30m. We estimate another $30m will be recognised in FY2011 from its
total outstanding orderbook of $55m (after taking into account FY2010’s
recognition). This, together with the contribution from its new iron ore
subsidiary, should lift its FY2011 net profit to $18.5m (EPS of 0.8 cents).
In all, we think that the new phase of rerating has just begun. In 2007,
investors were willing to pay up to $1.56 (Price to book of 3x), with lower
tourist arrivals, less land sales, and very little visibility in construction
progress. Hence, the current share price offers an excellent opportunity to
buy into the next phase of growth at its onset, in our opinion. We already
see solid evidence that Bintan is making good progress to becoming the
next preferred tourist destination in the region, building new shopping
mall, hotels, and an integrated water resort city. Besides, tourist numbers
have been on the rise for the past 5 years, lending weight to the
increasingly popularity of the tropical island. The current valuations should
not remain long as more investors are made aware of this undervalued
company, and more development progress is achieved in the coming
years.
Ample room available for re‐rating
In our valuation method, we have made a few conservative assumptions.
Gallant’s industrial park business has been valued at breakeven levels.
However, management has guided that their industrial parks are actually
seeing new and returning customers as wages in other locations such as
China have increased significantly over the past few years. For Lagoi Bay
land sales, we have factored in a 10‐year period for it to be fully sold and
have used prevailing market prices to estimate revenue for future deals.
Management, on the other hand, is aiming to achieve completion of sale
for Lagoi Bay in 5 years.
Another potential catalyst is the attractiveness of Bintan as a home for
commuters, which in turn will determine the demand for residential
developments in Lagoi Bay. The key in the success is the overall
commuting time, for which Gallant is committed to reduce over the next
few years by offering express immigration clearance services and having
direct access to Singapore’s Central Business District by ferry.
Earnings to double in 2011 but share price a fraction of previous peak
Gallant’s earnings have been muted in the past few years as it was unable
to offset taxes incurred for its industrial park and utilities businesses
against losses of unprofitable subsidiaries. But from this year, we believe
earnings should receive a significant lift from ongoing land sales and
contribution from its iron ore subsidiary.
We expect the company to post a net profit of $9.3m for FY2010 (EPS of
0.4 cents), buoyed by the recognition of land sales revenue by as much as
$30m. We estimate another $30m will be recognised in FY2011 from its
total outstanding orderbook of $55m (after taking into account FY2010’s
recognition). This, together with the contribution from its new iron ore
subsidiary, should lift its FY2011 net profit to $18.5m (EPS of 0.8 cents).
In all, we think that the new phase of rerating has just begun. In 2007,
investors were willing to pay up to $1.56 (Price to book of 3x), with lower
tourist arrivals, less land sales, and very little visibility in construction
progress. Hence, the current share price offers an excellent opportunity to
buy into the next phase of growth at its onset, in our opinion. We already
see solid evidence that Bintan is making good progress to becoming the
next preferred tourist destination in the region, building new shopping
mall, hotels, and an integrated water resort city. Besides, tourist numbers
have been on the rise for the past 5 years, lending weight to the
increasingly popularity of the tropical island. The current valuations should
not remain long as more investors are made aware of this undervalued
company, and more development progress is achieved in the coming
years.
kiasiDBT ( Date: 27-Jan-2011 10:21) Posted:
|
In Kim Eng's "2011 7 small cap picks", noticed in the pictorials of the rabbit hat.
Copied from Kim Eng report:
Superb value for money
Our two value stocks have one thing in common – both derive their value from the assets they have on the ground. RH Petrogas and Gallant Venture are trading at huge discounts of 30‐70% to our conservative valuations.
If you can afford to wait for the huge value still buried deep underground to be uncovered, we reckon you will reap outsized returns.
Gallant’s much sought after landbank in Bintan, for example, is held at cost of just $3 psm but is currently being sold at $110 psm on average!
Gallant Venture – entering a virtuous cycle of growth
Back in 2007, Gallant traded as high as $1.56, or 3x its book value, as the market viewed with wild enthusiasm the development potential of its valuable landbank in Lagoi Bay, Bintan. However, the stock was severely hit during the financial crisis, tumbling to as low as six cents, as buyers held back and development plans were put on hold for lack of financing. It was a big blow but it did not deter Gallant from continuing to invest in Lagoi Bay by laying down the infrastructures and building the landscape to increase the attractiveness of its land parcels for future sales.
By 2010, its investments bore fruit. Land sales resumed, more land deals were secured, and the construction of Lagoi Beach Village, a central component of its Lagoi Bay township, started. In addition, Landmarks Berhad will resume the development of its Water Resort City soon.
However, Gallant’s share price is still trading below the 2007 peak. Currently trading at 19% discount to its book value, the stock is grossly undervalued because a large chunk of the company’s assets is its landbank in Bintan, which is held at a cost and only a fraction of the prevailing market price.
Gallant is in oversold region. Keep a look out for potential bullish reversal.
read my analysis on Gallant
12 months anything can happen. This is analyst always do.
The TP may chance anytime.
They revised how many time on TP to Genting, Wilmar and Noble.
Analyst's report is just for reference.
spicy88 ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 13:59) Posted:
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Support at $0.411
Gallant buyers cuming liow...
Where is tat a-r-s-e hole Kim Eng anal-ist... tat set TP 75, now gone into hiding... thiam thiam when drop...
500 lots married deal at 0.48
Gallant grossly oversold, strong support at 41.5 and RSI hooking up, I think may CHIONG anytime soon...
Read in between the lines... you should do your own homework. TP of 75 cents ia for 12 months, not now. If you have missed entering this before the price movement, good for you. Else, you may need to have power to hold for 12 months to see 75 cents.
Ask yourself... are you value investor or trader? Once you get this figured out, you will know what to do next. Hope this helps.
kiasiDBT ( Date: 20-Jan-2011 11:24) Posted:
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any expect can advise, should we hold on to this stock?
Should we still hold on to this stock?? Any advice
Juz wondering is Kim Eng's TP of 75 still valid or juz plain bull-shi*t.
I hope tat Kim Eng analyst who gave the TP, read this thread and reply.
I hope tat Kim Eng analyst who gave the TP, read this thread and reply.
Gallant Fail to breakout 0.515. It make a bearish reversal there... now it is at 50% Fibonacci retracement level! Will the bear continue?
read my analysis on Gallant here