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krisluke
    30-Apr-2013 11:29  
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Long Term: Over Weight


Positives in 2Q were steady leasing and positive rental reversions. We see attractive yields and a strong DPU CAGR of 14% for FY12-15 after its CPPU redemption and the expiry of its current master lease at Alexandra Technopark in FY15. 2Q/1H13 DPUs broadly met Street and our forecasts at 26/46% of our FY13 number. We raise FY13-15 DPUs by 2-3% to incorporate lower borrowing costs and our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.7%) rises accordingly. Maintain Outperform with catalysts expected from further yield-enhancing moves.


         

SMM has underperformed the index by 11% YTD vs. KEP's -4%. It is contending with Daewoo Shipbuilding for three CJ-70 harsh-environment jack-up rigs from Noble and Maersk, worth US$600m each. KEP is not in the running for these as it prefers to focus on standard jack-up rigs. Maintain Overweight with sector catalysts expected from order wins.

 

What Happened

 
Upstream has reported that Noble Drilling is in pole position to secure a CJ-70 jack-up rig drilling chartering contract from Statoil, which could be announced soon. This could be followed by the award of rig construction to the Statoil-nominated yards of SMM and Daewoo Shipbuilding. The contract is said to be worth about US$600m for delivery in 2016.

 
Danish Maersk Drilling is also looking to invest in two more GustoMSC CJ-70 design jack-up rigs for delivery in 2016. The driller is exploring its options with SMM and Daewoo, after its option with KEP lapsed. KEP is at the moment building three CJ-70 rigs for Maersk, to be delivered in 2013-15.

 

What We Think

 
We believe SMM stands a high chance of winning in view of its track record for CJ-70. It had delivered one CJ-70 rig (West Elara) in 2011 and is building another unit (West Linus) for Seadrill, for delivery by end-2013. That said, Daewoo is new in the jack-up market and may sacrifice margins to break into this market.

 

What You Should Do
Accumulate SMM. We believe its earnings growth of 10% (3-year CAGR), order wins and order-book expansion could continue to power its share price. Margins could also recover in 1Q13 with the lack of provisions for its rig accident in 4Q12.

 

Source:  CIMB Daybreak - 30 April 2013Full PDF Report
 
 
krisluke
    30-Apr-2013 10:02  
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The offshores were losing steam after their attempts to rebound last week.

Sembcorp showed strong gap down movement yesterday as it went ex-dividend of 15cts. This shows that Sembcorp had been resisted by its 50ma resistance line at 5.16 level and might start to continue its downtrend movement. Its current support level of 4.90 will be an important support level for Sembcorp to hold as breaking it will mean further downside for Sembcorp.

Sembmar failed to break its 20ma resistance line at 4.30 level yesterday and formed a bearish engulfing pattern. This calls for downside action to happen for Sembmar towards its immediate support of 4.19.

Kepcorp also slide further yesterday as it failed to hold above 10.80 level. It will now be seeking for the next support at 10.56 level.

Overall, the offshores will likely to continue to weaken further as they yet to find a good foothold at their current levels.
 
 
krisluke
    30-Apr-2013 09:30  
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R = $4.37

S = $4.28

... ...
 

 
krisluke
    30-Apr-2013 09:28  
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SMM: CIMB note that Upstream has reported that Noble Drilling is in pole position to secure a CJ-70 jack-up rig drilling chartering contract from Statoil, which could be announced soon.

This could be followed by the award of rig construction to the Statoil-nominated yards of SMM and Daewoo Shipbuilding. The contract is said to be worth about US$600m for delivery in 2016.

Maersk Drilling is also looking to invest in two more GustoMSC CJ-70 design jack-up rigs for delivery in 2016. The driller is exploring its options with SMM and Daewoo, after its option with KEP lapsed.

KEP is at the moment building three CJ-70 rigs for Maersk, to be delivered in 2013-15.

House believe SMM stands a high chance of winning in view of its track record for CJ-70. It had delivered one CJ-70 rig (West Elara) in 2011 and is building another unit (West Linus) for Seadrill, for delivery by end-2013.

That said, Daewoo is new in the jack-up market and may sacrifice margins to break into this market.

Recommend investors accumulate SMM.

Believe its earnings growth of 10% (3-year CAGR), order wins and order-book expansion could continue to power its share price.

Margins could also recover in 1Q13 with the lack of provisions for its rig accident in 4Q12.
 
 
krisluke
    30-Apr-2013 09:03  
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Offshore and Marine - Switching picks

While an order-book decline could cap Keppel Corp’s share price, a 9% potential increase in order book by end-2013 and order newsflow could catalyse Sembmarine’s. We replace KEP with SMM as our top pick in the big-cap O& M segment.

SMM has underperformed the index by 11% YTD vs. KEP’s -4%. It is contending with Daewoo Shipbuilding for three CJ-70 harsh-environment jack-up rigs from Noble and Maersk, worth US$600m each. KEP is not in the running for these as it prefers to focus on standard jack-up rigs. Maintain Overweight with sector catalysts expected from order wins.

What Happened
Upstream has reported that Noble Drilling is in pole position to secure a CJ-70 jack-up rig drilling chartering contract from Statoil, which could be announced soon. This could be followed by the award of rig construction to the Statoil-nominated yards of SMM and Daewoo Shipbuilding. The contract is said to be worth about US$600m for delivery in 2016.

Danish Maersk Drilling is also looking to invest in two more GustoMSC CJ-70 design jack-up rigs for delivery in 2016. The driller is exploring its options with SMM and Daewoo, after its option with KEP lapsed. KEP is at the moment building three CJ-70 rigs for Maersk, to be delivered in 2013-15.

What We Think
We believe SMM stands a high chance of winning in view of its track record for CJ-70. It had delivered one CJ-70 rig (West Elara) in 2011 and is building another unit (West Linus) for Seadrill, for delivery by end-2013. That said, Daewoo is new in the jack-up market and may sacrifice margins to break into this market.

What You Should Do
Accumulate SMM. We believe its earnings growth of 10% (3-year CAGR), order wins and order-book expansion could continue to power its share price. Margins could also recover in 1Q13 with the lack of provisions for its rig accident in 4Q12. (Read Report)


Highlighted Companies

Sembcorp Marine
Maintain Trading Buy (not Outperform in view of potential execution risks in Brazil) and target price of S$5.01, based on 15x CY14 P/E. SMM has secured S$1.7bn of orders YTD and we assume S$4.5bn for 2013. We also expect operating margins to recover to 13% in 2013 from 12.5% in 2012.

Keppel Corp
Maintain Neutral and target price of S$11.90, based on RNAV. KEP has secured S$2.2bn of orders YTD and we assume S$5.5bn for 2013. However, its order book could decline by 27% by end-2013 after its peak delivery of 21 jack-up rigs.

Source : CIMB Research
 
 
krisluke
    29-Apr-2013 13:38  
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Keppel and Sembcorp Marine on the verge of getting massive jackup orders

But analysts prefer Keppel.

Maybank Kim Eng notes that the Singapore rig-builders, Keppel Corp and Sembcorp Marine could be on the verge of being awarded some large-scale jackup orders, according to Upstreamonline.

Here's more from Maybank Kim Eng:

Statoil could be on the verge of awarding new multi-year contracts for up to three Cat J (Gusto MSC CJ-70) jackup rigs. On top of that, Maersk Drilling could also be on the lookout for two more Gusto MSC CJ-70 jackups, according to Upstreamonline.

With both yards the only yards globally with a track record in constructing CJ-70 rigs, we believe they could be poised to benefit from any new orders. We prefer Keppel over Sembcorp Marine for its more robust margin outlook and stronger market share in the jack-up markets.

Race between Singapore and Korea: According to the same report, Statoil has nominated Jurong Shipyard (Sembcorp Marine) and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) in South Korea as its preferred yards.

Noble Corp (OW/Pos), the driller in the running together with Seadrill (OW/Pos) for this award, is understood to be in discussions with both yards. Similarly, Maersk Drilling, which currently has three CJ-70s being built in Keppel, is also understood to be in discussions with the same yards.

Sizable additions to order books: Based on earlier orders with both yards, we estimate that the price of each rig could range between US$450-600mn. The potential award of three newbuilds could add cS$1-2bn to the order books of both companies.

Keppel remains upbeat on outlook for further rig orders: The company at its recent 1Q13 earnings call reiterated its positive outlook for rig orders and highlighted the continued high level of enquiries for semi-submersibles. The company remains hopeful of securing at least one semi-submersible order in 2H13. See Barclays Research: Keppel Corp.: Sector-leading margins, robust outlook.

Other established drillers could start to order? Following Ensco’s (OW/Pos) recent order of a KFELS B Class Bigfoot jackup rig, we believe other established drillers could look to capitalize on the current strength in jackup markets.

Other established drillers like Rowan (OW/Pos), Transocean (OW/Pos), Atwood (OW/Pos), Diamond Offshore (UW/Pos), etc. have either ordered KFELS B Class rigs before, or are currently building rigs with Keppel. Atwood and Transocean also currently own Sembcorp Marine’s PPL Pacific Class rigs.   

 

 
ozone2002
    29-Apr-2013 09:37  
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4.33 now up 13c from 4.2 low..

reversal from downtrend..

results announcement on May 3

gd luck dyodd
 
 
krisluke
    26-Apr-2013 19:27  
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The offshores were mostly bullish yesterday.

Sembcorp took the bullish lead as it managed to break its 20ma resistance line at 5.05 level. However, it faced an immediate resistance of 5.10 level and managed to break it slightly. If it continues to trade higher today, it will then be seeking the next resistance level of 5.19.

Sembmar managed to trade higher despite its ex-dividend of 0.08cts. This is a good sign form Sembmar as it will likely to continue to head higher to test its 20ma resistance line at 4.32 level.

Kepcorp was the loser in the sector.  It failed to recover after its strong gap down due to ex-dividend.  Instead, it head lower and tested its immediate support level of 10.80. It will likely to continue to test this support level before a rebound can occur.

Overall, the offshores can still have upside room to rebound but due to its downtrending nature, it might not be able to break the resistance.
 
 
krisluke
    26-Apr-2013 19:12  
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Sembmarine lands $10.8m Golden Eagle deal



Bridging business: Sembmarine builds on award for Golden Eagle living quarters, above


UK-based Sembmarine SLP is already contracted for the engineering, procurement and construction of the living quarters platform for the development, which is situated 110 kilometres northeast of Aberdeen.

The 550-tonne, 70-metre span bridge will provide personnel and services access between the development’s production, utility and living quarters (PUQ) platform and drilling platform.

The flare is around 70 metres long with an estimated weight of 225 tonnes.

Both contracts are scheduled for delivery in May 2014.

Nexen operates Golden Eagle on a 36.54% stake with partners Maersk Oil (31.56%), Suncor Energy (26.69%) and Edinburgh Oil and Gas (5.21%).

Due for first oil in late 2014, the $3.08 billion development is expected to have an initial gross production rate of around 70,000 barrels of oil equivalent.

Sembmarine SLP was formerly UK outfit SLP Engineering before it was acquired by the Singaporean company last September.

Nexen is a wholly owned subsidiary of China National Offshore Oil Corporation after last year’s $15.1 billion takeover.
 
 
krisluke
    26-Apr-2013 19:09  
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Sembcorp Marine's profit predicted to soar 29% to $146m



Revenue will also surge 41%.

According to Maybank Kim Eng, Sembcorp Marine  (SMM) will report 1Q13 results on 3 May 2013 after trading hours. Maybank Kim Eng  estimates a 29% YoY rise in PATMI to SGD146m, on the back of 41% YoY increase in revenue to SGD1.33b. 

The report also said that the higher revenue expectation  is based on the assumption that 2 semisub units would have achieved  initial recognition milestone.

" Note that revenue recognition is dependent  on the stage of job progress and is lumpy from quarter to quarter. SMM  is our preferred rigbuilder with its direct exposure to the offshore sector  and higher TP upside potentia," Maybank said.
 

 
krisluke
    26-Apr-2013 19:02  
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SMM: has secured a small contract worth approx £7m to fabricate the Bridge and Flare Structures for Nexen Petroleum UK’s Golden Eagle Project in the UK North Sea. SMM is already the EPC provider for the Project’s Living Quarters Platform which, together with the Bridge and Flare Structures, is scheduled for delivery in May 2014.
 
 
krisluke
    25-Apr-2013 10:16  
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The offshores also showed strong bullish performance yesterday.

Sembmar took the lead in rebound yesterday. It opened slightly higher and it was able to start gaining bullish momentum during the mid day. Shortist seems to be rushing to close their short positions which caused the rebound to be strong. Lower low formation had been formed and Sembmar will now be seeking its 20ma resistance line at 4.32 level to test it.

Sembcorp also reacted similarly to Sembmar. It continued its previous day’s rebound and managed to test its 20ma resistance line at 5.05 level. It will likely to continue to test this resistance level today and this is a crucial level where Sembcorp can start to form a lower high formation to continue its downtrend movement.

Kepcorp was seen gapping down very strongly after its ex-distribution. This is a natural gap down and in fact, if adjustments for the distribution are made, Kepcorp actually enjoyed a bullish day. Kepcorp tested its immediate support at 10.84 level and it held well yesterday. Overall, the offshores are performing bullishly yesterday and they will likely to continue to test their resistance levels today.




Sembcorp Marine: From The Bottom Looking Up Maintain Buy TP $5.40

SMM SP | Mkt Cap USD7.2b | ADTV USD18.3m

SMM will report 1Q13 results after trading hours on 3 May 2013. We expect PATMI for the quarter to rise by 29% YoY to SGD146m. The low base performance a year ago would not be difficult to beat. SMM is our preferred rigbuilder for direct exposure to the offshore sector. Maintain Buy and TP of SGD5.40.

A sequentially higher EBIT margin this quarter would not be a surprise. SMM may continue to be conservative for some projects which led us to forecast EBIT margin of 12.6% for 1Q13. To elicit a positive market reaction, EBIT margins would need to be above 13%. Regardless, we believe that margins have passed the trough.

SMM’s orderbook of SGD13.6b still offers strong visibility and better revenue coverage than Keppel. We think that margin concerns are overdone and stock is at an unjustifiably low level. The relative underperformance should see some reversion to mean.
 
 
krisluke
    25-Apr-2013 07:37  
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Short sell orders executed on 24 April 2013

Semb Corp 1,193,000 SGD 5,974,910
SembMar 253,000 SGD 1,076,170
Kep Corp 2,235,000 SGD 24,333,110
 
 
krisluke
    25-Apr-2013 07:14  
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Scarborough partners mulling FLNG option

Russell McCulley   Russell McCulley • Houston


ExxonMobil and BHP Billiton are considering what would be the world's largest-capacity floating LNG facility for the Scarborough field in Australia's Carnarvon basin. If given the go-ahead, the 480 m by 75 m wide (1,575 ft by 246 ft) FLNG unit would be capable of processing around 6 MM tons per annum of LNG, an ExxonMobil spokesman told Offshore.

ExxonMobil communications advisor Aaron Stryk confirmed that the company has submitted an environmental plan to Australian authorities and said a development decision could come in the second half of 2013. " A final concept select decision will be made following completion of engineering and design work which will enable a comparison of all options for developing Scarborough," Stryk said.

" FLNG is considered the best development option for Scarborough based on a balance of economic, environmental, and social reasons. FLNG reduces capital costs by eliminating the need for infrastructure like LNG loading jetties, dredging of shipping channels, pipelines, and site clearance. It can reduce development costs of gas in a remote offshore field, and enable development of a resource that may otherwise remain undeveloped. It has a much smaller environmental footprint compared to an onshore LNG development and would eliminate the need for dredging."

The company has not provided a cost estimate for the project, and Stryk would not comment on the possible timing of a final investment decision. ExxonMobil operates the Scarborough prospect in a 50/50 joint venture with BHP Billiton.

Shell's Prelude FLNG project, also offshore Western Australia, is in development with a targeted startup date in 2017, which could make it the first FLNG project to go onstream. Prelude's floating production system will be roughly the same size as the Scarborough unit, but will have a production capacity of around 3.6 MM tons per annum of LNG.
Dockwise Ltd.'s Mighty Servant 1
Dockwise Ltd.'s Mighty Servant 1 has transported the extended tension leg platform for Chevron's Big Foot field from Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering's South Korea shipyard to South Texas, where it will be readied for deployment in the deepwater Gulf of Mexico. The Big Foot TLP will be installed in 5,330 ft (1,615 m) water depths, said to be the deepest TLP installation to date. First oil from the $4-billion project is scheduled for 2014. The platform will have a production capacity of 75,000 b/d of oil and 25 MMcf/d of gas. (Photo courtesy Dockwise)

Q5000 lands GoM gig



Helix Energy Solutions Group's Q5000 deepwater well intervention semisub will go to work for BP in the US Gulf of Mexico following the newbuild's planned 2015 delivery. The five-year contract includes an option to extend for two successive one-year terms, Helix said.

The Q5000 is modeled after Helix's Q4000, which was used extensively in the Macondo emergency response operations. The new semi, under construction at Sembcorp Marine's Jurong Shipyard in Singapore, will be capable of operating in 10,000 ft (3,048 m) water depths.

Grupo R orders four Keppel jackups



Keppel Offshore & Marine subsidiary KeppelFELS has secured contracts worth $820 million to build four jackup rigs for Mexican driller Grupo R. The jackups will be built to Keppel's KFELS B Class design and are scheduled for delivery from 2Q 2015 to 4Q 2015. The rigs will operate in water depths of up to 400 ft (122 m) and drill to depths of 30,000 ft (9,144 m).

Mexico's state oil company, Pemex, has said it plans to invest $25.3 billion this year to help counter production declines, with around $20 billion dedicated to upstream activities.

" Pemex have indicated their aim to operate the biggest fleet of jackup rigs in the world and Grupo R is well positioned to support them with four premium jackup rigs," said Ramiro Garza Vargas, CEO of Grupo R.

Wärtsilä picked for PSV series design



Wärtsilä Corp. has been awarded a contract to design four multi-purpose platform support vessels for Bumi Armada Berhad subsidiary Armada Offshore MPSV, the Malaysian vessel operator. The four vessels will be built by a subsidiary of Nam Cheong Ltd. in China's Fujian Mawei Shipbuilding yard. The contract's value was not disclosed.

The PSVs will be based on the WSD 1000 design and will measure 88.8 m (291 ft) in length by 20 m (66 ft) in breadth. Wärtsilä will also supply main power generation systems, propulsion systems, electrical systems, and automation systems.
A. K. Suda
A. K. Suda has signed a contract with Triyards Marine Services of Singapore, a subsidiary of EMAS Offshore, to design a series of 137.25-m (450-ft) leg liftboats, based on the SUDA-450-L3T design. Two such vessels are currently under construction in Asia. The liftboats are suitable for North Sea operations and will be certified for offshore wind farm installation, maintenance, and repair. (Photo courtesy A. K. Suda)

Ensco orders Keppel FELS jackup



Ensco has placed a $225-million order with Keppel FELS for a new premium jackup to be delivered in early 2015. The ENSCO 110 will be based on the Keppel FELS B Class Bigfoot design, capable of working in 400 ft (122 m) water depths and equipped to drill to a maximum 30,000 ft (9,144 m). The rig will be built in Singapore.

" Customer demand is broad-based for high-specification jackup rigs, and this rig can work in virtually every shallow water basin around the world," said Dan Rabun, Ensco chairman, president and CEO.

HHI to build Edda Accommodation monohull



Edda Accommodation has placed an order with Hyundai Heavy Industries for a new monohull accommodation vessel based on the company's Edda Fides monohull vessel, delivered in early 2011. The contract includes an option for an additional ship.

The 155-m (509-ft) long accommodation vessel will house up to 800 people and is scheduled for delivery in June 2015.
 
 
krisluke
    24-Apr-2013 16:40  
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S : $4.20

R : $4.28

XD : $0.06
 

 
krisluke
    24-Apr-2013 16:37  
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SembMar will be on XD (Ex-Dividend) tomorrow... ...
 
 
alexmay
    24-Apr-2013 16:04  
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waiting for the short covering!!. 
 
 
krisluke
    24-Apr-2013 16:01  
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Short sell orders executed on 15 April 2013 to 19 April 2013

Kep Corp 4,988,910 SGD 56,035,351.9


Semb Corp 1,931,000 SGD 9,553,930
SembMar 10,350,000 SGD 44,272,410


 

 

 

krisluke      ( Date: 16-Apr-2013 10:02) Posted:



Short sell orders executed on 08 April 2013 to 12 April 2013

Semb Corp 1,719,000 SGD 8,643,070
SembMar 11,304,060 SGD 48,888,997.2


Kep Corp 3,957,500 SGD 44,542,222

 
 
krisluke
    24-Apr-2013 15:01  
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The offshores were mostly trading weakly yesterday. Sembmar was seen sliding much lower yesterday as if its drop will be never ending. Its support at 4.20 has been breached slightly as it closed at 4.19 level. If Sembmar fails to rebound above 4.20 level today, it will mean that Sembmar is seek for a much lower support at 4.12 level. Kepcorp faces selling pressure yesterday despite its attempt to trade higher during its opening. Sellers were forcing Kepcorp back to its 20ma line at 11.29 level as many were anticipating the ex dividend. Kepcorp will likely to open with a gap down of 0.55pts tomorrow as the market adjusts for the dividend payout. Sembcorp is the only odd one in the pack. It attempted a rebound during its opening and it managed to hold there. This could mean that Sembcorp could be attempting to form a higher low formation with an upside towards its resistance of 5.02 level. Overall, the offshores might be attempting to rebound today as they are at their support levels
 
 
krisluke
    23-Apr-2013 12:03  
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Update on supports and resistances.

Pivot: 4.4

Our preference: Short positions below 4.4 with targets @ 4.1 & 3.8 in extension.

Alternative scenario: Above 4.4 look for further upside with 4.6 & 4.85 as targets.

Comment: the RSI remains capped by a declining trend line and under pressure.

Key levels
4.85
4.6
4.4
4.21 last
4.1
3.8
3.6

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