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Fellowship of the Shares

Elfin... :)

I don't believe in anything at all, you see (it is not good to just 'believe', unconditionally, in anything)...

But judging from the way stocks have fallen in the last 2 weeks, it is no joke this time!...

More so because many are emboldened by the Feb/Mar falls and the subsequent rally, to buy in, and expecting the same prompt big rally after that fall...

But alas, this is not to be this time round,  as you can see by the scary magnitude of the falls.

Further, if you look at many stocks' charts, then you will feel the composite market's picture is rather bad still at this time....

 

Hi Elf,

I got same problem as you. I keep asking myself y trade the stock when the fundamentals of co. selected is good....

Looks like must learn Vic's rojak style liao...
 

 

hm well...guess gotta do some analysis. or else how to know whether to buy or sell? haha. sigh. do you really believe the bear trend is established? *wail*

simonking: lottvis AR:

issued a full year profit warning on May 8th already. impt figures to note (all in HK dollars, '000 behind):

loss for the year '07--- 15,416, compared to gain of 207,000 previous year. net current assets have decreased by abt 20%--from 259k to 54k.

good thing is that they're debt free tho.

cashflow seriously impaired. from 137k previous year to only 15k for '07.

101mil warrants out on the market, with exercise px of $0.15 per share. (not good; will dilute the float by a lot).

EPS from 47.2c to a -3.15c this year. >~<

441mil shares on market. a relatively small float. considering its price, means very easilly manipulated.

Evidence: if you track the vol traded from 16th may to 26th jun (rangebound before the short spike), there's approx 983mil shares traded. that's more than twice the total float of lottvis. then again from peak to sell down (27th to ant 17jul), ~450 mil traded: again, the entire float of lottvis changed hands. Very clear signs of BB churning and manipulation.

going by vol count, the shorting still has at least 200 mil shares to go before it'll subside its downtrend. they've shorted it from 5 to 18th jul, then brief respite, and again from 23jul to 7 aug.

NAV is 94.4 HK cents. approx S$0.18. so 2x book to price fair value shd be 0.36.

am not quite sure how come their NAV is so high, when they're reporting losses, higher distribution income, higher costs etc tho....doesn't quite tally with the overall...altho i might be missing something here.

eek. they lost HK$100mil investing. eek.

k. that's abt it. from the AR and combined with tech. pls don't shoot the messenger ah. caveat emptor. not vested in the co and not a shortist either. haha. good luck! :)

 

 

Yup... we are all analysts in some way or another... :)

Looks like the bear trend is established now...

 

haha. ok, re analysts: point taken, manikam (can i just call you that? i don't want my money to go! :P). but yea, agree with CWQuah, we shd make the effort as responsible investors to find out more abt the stocks we're holding. for me, i go back to the direct source for FA stuff: the AR itself.

can't quite decide between being a trader or an FA holder tho! takes all my instincts not to run but to buy on dip instead. >~< need to meld the two...select on FA, entry/exit on TA. but FA to decide holding period? decisions decisions....

choohian! *hugs* yep, don't worry abt the warrants. like i said, they're just my insurance. ie, probably abt 2% of the entire sum i have in the market. dun intend to buy more either. :)

and floppy! nice to see a new person here. sometimes i think all the 'masters', 'elite' etc title scare off ppl from posting in the fellowship...

simonking: checking out lottvis now...hang on while i read its AR...but from techs:

sold down from 16th may (61.5) to 26th june (58.5), but price remained range bound: yr biggest cue to run actually, since it means building up momentum for downward. staged a brief upward breakout 26th jun to 3rd jul (67c)--likely due to general market--but thereaft down. 1st confirmed break to downtrend on 1st aug (45.5c): broke lower bollie then. long term has actually been on downtrend since abt 25may, entered a steep downtrend from 1st aug. looks set to continue when it opens trading tho: MACD lag hasn't finished downtrend yet.

 

 

 

It's not that analysts are trying to bluff us...

It's just that they have a paid job to do, so they do it (analyse)...

But analysts are just that... they are analysts, and not gods or seers ... 

Thus, many many analysts are wrong in their analysis...

If they are so right, they will not be analysts, but rich investors..  

 

ghlau935,

I think you should give the author of the article credit by mentioning his name when you re-post his article in public. For information, that article was written by Ben Stein who is a lawyer, economist, and commentator on finance (and a well-known actor and Hollywood personality).

 

I gave up on analyst reports long ago.... 

 

Elf,

Ditto sentiment - the swing in the playground moves only upon application of external forces... same thing with all stock indices....

I sense a disturbance in the force.... (sorry, got inspired by the cute Yoda icon).

Anyway, stock analyst reports do offer certain insights - but exercise discretion in the interpretation of what is stated in such reports... Personally I prefer to rely on other financial data, reports, personal analysis, TA etc. Takes a bit more time to assess a stock, but I think that process gives much more certainty in my judgement of the stock's fair value. And then again, don't forget abt mkt sentiment.

As for the extremely rapid opinion switches,well... it's typical " I told you so" behaviour.

 

 

 

Hai, guys...finally STI up 100++ point,..just to ask all of u anyone got any idea of this stock LottVis been Halt trading...Mean things going real bad..vested in.Thanks

 

Hi ChooHian, welcome back...I think nothing to do with Rafflesians madam... when we venture we will make mistakes sometimes .. it is when we dont learn from our mistake that we come fools...

 

chinkiasu, sad to say, but even rafflesians got fooled. Ha Ha Ha!

 

Dear elf,  "HUGS" to you. Sorry to learn that you are involved in warrants. I was adviced against buying warrants, derivatives and mutual funds. I have never touched them. My husband went against my advice and, of course, lost a lot.

 

I agree David...I think it never was except BBs exploit it.. Bernanke has been on to this subprime thing for some time and even two weeks ago spent more than a third of his time explaining to congress ...and talking of the moves he is making to make sure it does not happen again..

 

FED has yet to lower the interest rates,  ??? it shows that the severity of the situation is not to the extent we thought it was???? It is a good sign???

 

hi auntie floppy..!! welcome  to the fellowship....

a  for you  madam.. do feel free to share.. perhaps what is a "typical stock market aunty"?

 

I'm your typical "stock market aunty".  Love the action but kiasi.  So the next best thing is to read forum. This is the best topic in SJ and CNA.  You can tell there a great camaraderie among you guys. The postings are sincere, geniune and 'no nonsense'.  Keep on posting  

 

hey all, thanks for the advice regarding warrants. it's ok, i'm only buying a small percentage as a hedge against the market going down. am prepared to lose the entire sum and in fact, wld be happy to, since it means my stocks are up!

haha.

have a good hols all!

agree with rogue trader actually. think this is yet another trap. hedge funds are playing dow and global markets. so either follow them and scalp each time, or adopt the FA method of buying on each dip and holding through the panic. long term (ie, mid 08) is up after all.

btw, is it only me, or is anyone else pissed at all the analysts who kept calling bull market, and then reversed as market reversed, and said they had been calling bear, and that the signs have been there all the while? *roll eyes* i mean, surely there must be a conflict of interest when brokerage houses and banks issue buy/sell recommendations, and they themselves are traders. caveat emptor in full highlight here man.

 

hi, elf... let me also add myself to one who has been badly burnt by playing SPC warrant which ended up worthless...  so personally I dont even want to talk about it...

 

Good post ghlau935, but what we say and what the BBs want to do in reality what can one really do except to scatter when elephants decide to do what they decide.. ..

 the subprime woes global exposure is max in the region of 100 billion and is in really a drop cf with the recent market correction which is in trillions (NYSE  market capitalisation alone is est at >25 trillions)...   so ppl get manipulated...

 my stand is this... we do a proper FA of the stocks.. and look at TA for timings then try not to be too greedy nor do we allow ourselves to be fooled / frightened into being manipulated.. our & the world economy is still very sound  ...  now is a good opportunity to accumulate i.e if one still has the spare cash..for those who have not.. dont panic just hold and the storm will certainly past..