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Singapore shares fell by 33.9pts (-1.1%) to 3,117.4. In the broader market, losers led gainers 357 to 142 with 1.1bn shares worth S$1.2bn changing hands. With the cue from the poor performance in the US markets yesterday, we expect the STI to trade on a downside bias today.
Corporate News...
Singapore Telcos. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT. Following our recent meetings with the telcos, we believe voice and SMS revenues could come under pressure. Changing consumer behaviour is likely to shift usage to alternative communications that bypass traditional voice and SMS, fuelled by the popular iPhones and smartphones that have many applications allowing users to bypass both. Monetizing surging data usage is also difficult because of the very generous data bundles. We maintain our target prices and forecasts for stocks under coverage. M1 (NEUTRAL) remains our top pick, for having the most upside from NGNBN and the most benefits from soaring inbound visitors. Our UNDERRPERFORM is maintained for StarHub and SingTel.
Bonvests Holdings has entered into an agreement with the Government of Maldives for the construction and development of a domestic airport on the island of Kooddoo and the lease of the island of Dhigurah for the development and operation of a tourist resort.
Cheung Woh Technologies' 1Q12 net profit declined by 54.5% yoy to S$2.9m. This is attributable to lower gross margins and higher operating expenses resulting from higher material costs, fuel costs and staff costs despite a 3.9% yoy increase in revenue. Pending review, we have a BUY call and TP S$0.56.
Golden Agri has acquired 57.4m shares, representing approximately 2% of the shareholding in PT Sinar Mas Agro Resources and Technology or PT SMART for Rp396bn. Following this transaction, Golden Agri's stake in SMART increased to 97.2% from 95.2%. We believe this exercise is to consolidate the group's holdings in PT SMART. We are neutral on this acquisition as the net earnings accretion to Golden Agri is less than 1%. We maintain our TRADING BUY call and TP S$0.81 on Golden Agri due to its attractive valuations against peers and strong FFB output growth prospects.
Hu An Cable plans to convert its new and existing shares to TDRs and list them on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The company expects to raise approximately NT$637.3m, assuming a TDR issue price of NT$11.38. It plans to use the funds raised to pay down its bank loans. We have a BUY call and TP S$0.74 on the stock.
Mirach Energy has signed a joint operation agreement with Pertamina for Oil Production at Kampung Minyak Field in South Sumatra. Mirach has appointed Daqing Enterprise (DQE) to help drive the production to 1,000 barrels of oil per day.
Mun Siong Engineering has entered into a MOU with PetroVietnam Maintenance and Repair Joint Stock Company to develop business opportunities in refineries, fertilizer plants, chemical plants and other oil and gas facilities in Vietnam.
SG Market: Spore shares are likely to head lower, tracking losses on Wall Street due to fears that Europe's debt crisis contagion will threaten a wider emergency for global markets. Many analysts expect the STI to consolidate around the 3100 level before pushing higher later in the year when US/Europe uncertainties clear.
Previous failures to break 3180-3200 resistance have led to a test of 3080-3100 support during non-crisis times, as part of a lengthy consolidation around 3100-3200 since last Oct, which is likely to continue into Aug. Land transport operators SMRT & ComfortDelGro will be in focus after both firms applied for an increase in fares to offset rising costs.
BREAKING: Syrian Protesters Break Into The U.S. Embassy In Damascus
Reuters reports that protesters loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad have broken into the U.S. embassy compound in Damascus, according to diplomats in the capital city.
According to the AP, pro-government demonstrators gathered outside of the embassy earlier today to protest Ambassador Robert Ford's recent visit to the besieged city of Hama, the site of the military's bloody crackdown against anti-regime protesters.
We will update when we know more.
Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right Now
Politics In 60 Seconds: What You Need To Know Right Now
Good morning! Here's what you need to know:
1. President Obama
will meet with Israeli Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu today. Yesterday, Mr. Obama called for the creation of a Palestinian state
based on Israel's pre-1967 borders. The speech provoked
an icy response from Mr. Netanyahu.
2. President Obama's speech has already produced considerable commentary. Walter Mead says the president was
channeling his inner George W. Bush. John Podhoretz argues that the president
mucked up a perfectly good speech about the Arab Spring by throwing in the Palestinian state boundary lines at the end.
3. The bulk of the president's speech was indeed devoted to US policy in the Middle East and North Africa, in the wake of the uprisings across the region. President Obama embraced the wave of discontent and urged Arab leaders to
commit to orderly political transition, more entrepreneurial economies, and far-reaching political reform.
4. The march toward Greek default continued apace. The yield on Greece’s 10-year government bond
rose to record levels as speculation rose that the
eurozone nation would default on its debt repayments.
5.
The Wall Street Journal reports: " Weekend elections that threaten to drive Spain's ruling Socialist party from power in several regions and cities also promise a potentially nasty surprise:
the revelation of piles of undisclosed debt in local governments that could undercut the country's drive to avoid an international bailout."
6. Senate Democrats, led by Budget Committee Chairman Kent Conrad (D-ND), yesterday
decided not to release their spending plan to counter the House GOP budget blueprint, saying they will wait to see whether the so-called Biden Group produces a compromise plan for paring the national debt.
7. House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said yesterday: " We have a plan. It's called Medicare." She said
she would oppose any effort to cut Medicare benefits.
8. Will 2012, like 2006, 2008 and 2010, be another " wave election" year? No one knows for sure, but that doesn't mean we can't speculate. A new poll
points to a strong wave of anti-incumbent sentiment.
9. Newt Gingrich campaigned in Iowa,
drawing good crowds and considerable interest after having been nearly run out of the race by a gaggle of apparently hysterical conservative commentators.
10. Former Ambassador Jon Huntsman's decision to base his campaign in Orlando, Florida and his recent remarks to Time magazine that he is a " very spiritual person" (meaning: not a Mormon
per se) has
caused some consternation in Salt Lake City. Which is what Amb. Huntsman's handlers were hoping would happen.
11. Paul Krugman has a positively jolly column (for him) today on
the revival of American manufacturing.
12. We are reliably informed that
the end of the world will not occur until 6pm tomorrow. So you still have time to see Penelope Cruz in
Pirates of the Caribbean.
10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell
Good morning. Here's what you need to know.
- Asian indices were mostly down in overnight trading with the Shanghai Composite up 0.18%. Major European indices are in the red and U.S. futures indicate a negative open.
- U.S. listed Arch Chemicals is being acquired by Swiss drugmaker Lonza for $1.2 billion. Lonza will pay $47.20 per share for Arch Chemicals, and the deal is expected to hedge the company against the impact of the strong Swiss franc and give it a larger market share of the 'microbial control market'.
Looks like many were trapped during last Friday buying mood. Today STI showed hand. Sad........
Japan can't say when nuclear reactors will restart
(AP:TOKYO) Japan could give no timetable Monday for restarting 35 nuclear plants idled in the wake of a tsunami-triggered meltdown crisis, with an official saying resuming operations depends on safety " stress tests" sometime in the future.
The news that the electricity shortages caused by the shutdowns might drag on came as Japan marked the fourth month after the March 11 earthquake and tsunami decimated much of northeastern Japan and triggered a meltdown crisis at the country's Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear plant.
The government ordered safety checks on all of Japan's 54 nuclear reactors following the nuclear disaster _ the worst nuclear crisis since Chernobyl. Only 19 reactors are currently operating, causing electricity shortages amid sweltering heat.
Trade ministry official Yoshifumi Ohno said 35 idled nuclear reactors will undergo the new safety tests, known as " stress tests." The initial stage of the tests will examine whether those reactors can withstand big earthquakes and tsunami.
The March earthquake and tsunami knocked out power at the Fukushima plant, sending it toward meltdown in a crisis that engineers are still struggling to contain. The plant operator has come under heavy criticism for failing to sufficiently prepare for the disasters.
Ohno said the second stage of the " stress tests" will be more comprehensive, and apply to all of Japan's nuclear reactors. But he gave no further details, and did not say when the " stress tests" would begin.
Nuclear power generates about 30 percent of Japan's electricity. If nuclear reactors currently shut for maintenance face delays in resuming operations, the country could face a power shortfall in the months ahead.
With the loss of the Fukushima plant, which used to supply power to Tokyo areas, the government recently imposed energy restrictions on companies, factories and shopping malls to cope with electricity shortages.
The energy limit does not apply to households, but the government has urged them to conserve energy.
The government has also launched a campaign urging office workers to shed their suits and ties for lighter clothes such as polo shirts to endure the country's summer heat.
Analysis - Tremonti exit would spell big trouble for Italy
Italian Finance Minister Giulio Tremonti leads a news conference at Chigi palace in Rome
By Gavin Jones
ROME (Reuters) - Speculation is growing that Italy's Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti -- credited with shielding the country from the euro zone debt crisis -- will soon be forced out of government, which would further raise the heat on Italian bonds.
The yield differential on Italian 10-year bonds versus safer German bunds hit its widest since the launch of the euro on Friday, as the markets worried about contagion from the Greek debt crisis.
Tremonti overcame cabinet resistance to push through a tough austerity programme last week, but now looks increasingly isolated and appears to no longer have the full support of Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi.
" He thinks he's a genius and everyone else is stupid," Berlusconi said in an interview with Repubblica daily on Friday.
" He is the only minister who is not a team player," Berlusconi said, adding that he would make sure the austerity package was changed during its passage through parliament to make it more attractive to voters rather than markets.
It seems questionable whether the package is even that attractive to markets, however. It was not formally presented until a week after it was approved by the cabinet, and it has been marred by confusion over the measures it contains and how much they are worth.
The premium investors demand to hold Italian 10-year bonds instead of safer German bunds jumped to 2.24 percent from 1.99 percent on Friday. The Italian yield of 5.3 percent is the highest since 2002.
Yet analysts have no doubt the picture would be even worse without Tremonti, who has many critics but whose insistence on keeping a lid on the fiscal deficit is widely seen as having so far shielded Italy from the worst of the euro zone debt crisis.
" There's already growing market focus on whether Italy can bring down its debt and if you add uncertainty about Tremonti being pushed out you get a very dangerous mix," said Raj Badiani of IHS Global Insight.
" It would be a really negative step that would make ratings agencies and markets very nervous."
Badiani said Tremonti's exit might change the " pecking order" of possible contagion from the euro zone debt crisis and soon see Italy looking as vulnerable as Spain.
Tremonti, a former tax lawyer with no economic background, is an abrasive character who makes enemies easily. At Berlusconi's side since his first government in 1994, he boasts that only he has the courage to say no to the prime minister.
According to newspapers he often threatens to resign when faced with opposition, betting that his standing with markets and his close ties to the pro-devolution Northern League, Berlusconi's key coalition ally, make him indispensable.
Yet that may no longer be the case. The League, hit by election setbacks and falling support, has begun distancing itself from Tremonti, while Berlusconi seems to have finally tired of defending him from his many cabinet critics.
Tremonti is seen as electoral poison by most of the cabinet, who blame his spending curbs and refusal to lower taxes for the government's loss of popularity.
NO EXPLICIT SUPPORT
A meeting between Tremonti and Berlusconi on Friday ended with Berlusconi issuing a statement reiterating his commitment to balance Italy's budget, but offering no explicit support to his minister as he often has before in moments of tension.
One factor in Tremonti's favour is the lack of any obvious rival for what now looks like an unattractive job proposal for any well-qualified candidate. The government is unpopular and its term of office ends in 2013.
" There is no clear candidate to replace Tremonti," said Fabio Fois of Barclays Capital. " In the interests of the country I think it is best if he stays where he is."
The current situation has similarities with Berlusconi's previous government, when Tremonti was briefly forced out by coalition infighting in 2004.
On that occasion he was replaced by his number two, Treasury Director General Domenico Siniscalco, and markets would hope for a similar outcome if he were to quit or be sacked again.
Vittorio Grilli, the current Treasury chief, would be seen as guaranteeing continuity with Tremonti's tough fiscal line, yet it remains to be seen if he would want the job.
" Grilli has all the credentials to be finance minister from a technical point of view," said Fois, though he questioned whether Berlusconi would want to replace Tremonti with someone so closely associated with his policies.
Grilli, who heads the EU's influential Economic and Financial Committee, has spent his whole career as a Treasury technocrat with governments of both political persuasions.
He is a candidate to replace Mario Draghi as governor of the Bank of Italy and he may not want to lose his bi-partisan appeal by throwing in his lot with Berlusconi just as the media magnate appears in irreversible political decline.
The same reasoning applies to Lorenzo Bini Smaghi, Italy's board member at the European Central Bank, another well-qualified technocrat who has been touted in the press as a possible successor to Tremonti.
Bini Smaghi is expected to quit his ECB post soon and is another candidate for the BOI job, which he is likely to find far more appealing than being economy minister in a cabinet that would resist the rigour he has always preached for Italy.
As a result, if indeed Tremonti is forced out, he looks more likely to be replaced by a far weaker figure put in place to open the purse strings to give Berlusconi some chance of winning the next election -- a prospect that would frighten financial markets.
Euro, stocks slip before Europe debt crisis meet
* MSCI APXJ down nearly 1 pct after three weeks of gains
* Euro hovers within sight of a record low against Swiss franc
* Australian shares tumble 1.6% on carbon emission tax plan
* U.S. bonds, gold shine as risk appetite dims
By Saikat Chatterjee
HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - The euro weakened in Asia on Monday ahead of an emergency meeting among European policymakers on the sovereign debt crisis while equities snapped three consecutive weeks of gains on weak data from the world's two biggest economies.
The single currency held near a record low against the Swiss franc on growing worries that the debt crisis was now beginning to infect the continent's big economies such as Italy -- the region's third biggest.
Markets have barely begun recovering from an extended period of volatility in the first half of 2011, when concerns around slowing growth in China, an extended slump in the U.S. and worrisome news from the euro zone have begun to resurface, deterring demand for risky assets once again.
Australian stocks was the region's worst performer, shedding 1.6 percent, after the government unveiled a plan to tax carbon emissions from the nation's worst polluters, sending shares of coal miners, steel and airlines such as Macarthur Coal , BlueScope Steel and Virgin Australia tumbling.
Japanese shares fell 0.7 percent after hefty gains last week, with banks bearing the brunt of the losses.
In Europe, stock index futures point to a lower open with STOXX Europe 50 futures < STXEc1> down 0.7 percent, futures for Germany's DAX index < FDXc1> are down 0.2 percent and those for France's CAC-40 < FCEc1> down 0.5 percent.
However, steep declines may be unlikely before the earning season kicks off with Alcoa this week, as most Asian markets are trading above the day's lows with some scattered buying seen in defensive counters like utilities.
" The correction has been relatively mild and suggests that investors are not all that bearish as they could have been, suggesting a preference towards buying on dips rather than selling into strength," said Khiem Do, chairman of Asia multi-asset team at Barings Asset Management in Hong Kong.
" This is a good day for bargain hunting, especially among investors who haven't participated in the rally earlier."
Before Monday's drop of 1.2 percent, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan had gained for three consecutive weeks as investors bet that the second half held better prospects for risky assets than the first.
But Friday's much-awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data revealed the economy created only 18,000 jobs in June, well short of an expected 90,000, dashing optimism that the economy was emerging from a soft patch.
Adding to worries on the global economy, data showed annual inflation in China accelerated to a three-year high in June while import growth slowed to its a two-year low. {ID:nL3E7I901B]
NUANCED APPROACH
In currency markets, the euro held around the $1.42 line on some light short-covering after falling to a two-week low of $1.4187 in early Asian trade with some technical support seen around the $1.4150 line.
Against the safe-haven Swiss franc, the common currency slipped back towards a record low of 1.1808 hit in late June on EBS.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy.
Even as investors fretted about its fiscal health, pushing Italian bond yields to euro lifetime highs on Friday, the Financial Times reported that some EU leaders were considering allowing a selective default by Athens to put its debt on a more sustainable footing.
Taking a leaf out of the weaker tone in equities, most Asian currencies slipped against the dollar with the weak payrolls data implying policymakers would be reluctant to use currency gains to counter rising inflation in the face of weak external demand.
Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC says price pressures in much of Asia is driven by local demand which exchange rate swings can do little to counter, suggesting central banks would rely on more traditional methods of policy tightening such as interest rates.
Reduced demand for risk boosted prices of perceived safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold with yields on 10-year U.S. notes steadying at 3.01 percent on Monday from 3.18 percent barely a week ago. Gold held above the $1540 an ounce line.
Oil trended lower with U.S. crude < CLc1> falling by more than $3 to below $96 a barrel as the weak data cast a shadow on the economic outlook.
HK shares dip as data disappoints China little changed
Hong Kong night skyline
* Hang Seng index drops 0.9 pct, materials weak
* Shanghai Comp edges up, transports gain
* HK midday turnover lowest in 2011 as investors get defensive (Updates to midday)
By Vikram Subhedar and Clement Tan
HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - Hong Kong shares fell on Monday on profit-taking after three straight weeks of gains as economic data from the United States and China disappointed, but a stable mainland market and strength in defensives helped limit declines.
The Hang Seng index fell 0.9 percent to 22,525.5 by the midday break, slipping further below its 250-day moving average around 22,783 that has proved a stiff resistance over the past week. The China Enterprises index of top locally listed mainland firms fell 1.3 percent.
On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.1 percent to 2,800.2 by the midday trading break. Airline stocks climbed, led by Air China , on reports that China will invest $1.5 trillion yuan ($232 billion) in the aviation industry in the next five years.
" The market doesn't seem to be reacting too adversely to the inflation and trade data over the weekend," said Zhang Qi, an analyst with Haitong Securities in Shanghai.
" It's uncertain what the slightly downside surprise in data would mean for profitability at the moment so people are just waiting and seeing for now."
Water resources-related counters also saw gains supported by policy moves after Chinese President Hu Jintao announced water reforms as a cornerstone of national infrastructure priorities at a conference over the weekend.
Anhui Water Resources Development Co Ltd rose 5.1 percent while Gezhouba , operator of massive projects along the Yangtze river, rose 3.1 percent.
HK DECLINES, INVESTORS GET DEFENSIVE
Power utilities posted mild gains in Hong Kong as investors sought safety in weak markets, a pattern seen repeatedly over the past month.
Turnover on the Hong Kong exchange, at HK$25.4 billion ($3.2 billion), was the lowest midday turnover seen this year.
Companies issuing profit-warnings saw sharp losses with steel company Angang Steel suffering a 6.7 percent drop after it warned of a first-half loss.
Sportwear maker China Dongxiang plunged 18 percent after it said it expected lower profit margins and sales for the first half, echoing a similar warning from Li Ning Co last week.
Corporate earnings from Chinese companies, expected later this month, are likely to set the tone for markets in the second half of the year at a time when valuations are below historical levels.
" China is looking very cheap but we would stick to the consumer-related plays for now (rather) than mining and the industrials...going into the second half, I think the market should perform well," said Khiem Do, head of the Asia multi-asset group at Barings Asset Management in Hong Kong.
On a forward 12-month price-to-earnings basis the China Enterprises index is trading at about 8.7 times, the lowest in over 2-1/2 years, according to Thomson Reuters data.
UPDATE 2-China's Wen says inflation top priority, more tightening seen
(Refiles to fix word in fifth last paragraph)
* Premier Wen says no let-up in anti-inflation compaign
* China monetary tightening to continue-c.banker
* PBOC will try to avoid big ups and downs in economy-Zhou
* Economists expect further hikes in interest rates in H2
By Kevin Yao and Yan Jiang
SHANGHAI/BEIJING, July 11 (Reuters) - Fighting inflation remains the top priority for the Chinese government and Beijing will maintain its current economic poicy, Premier Wen Jiabao said in comments published on Monday, reinforcing the case for further policy tightening.
Wen's comments followed official data on Saturday that showed annual inflation in June hit a three-year high of 6.4 percent.
" We must treat stabilising overall price levels as the top priority of our macro-economic controls and keep the direction of macro-economic adjustments unchanged," Wen said in remarks reported by the central government's Internet portal: (www.gov.cn)
He said that the government would try to stabilise prices of pork, a staple meat on Chinese dinner tables and the most closely watched item in inflation control, by boosting the supply of hogs.
Meanwhile, China's central bank chief Zhou Xiaochuan vowed to maintain a " prudent policy" to fight stubbornly high inflation, while adding that it would try to avoid causing big swings in economic growth.
" The most prominent problem in macro-economic operations is the relatively big inflationary pressure and still strong inflationary expectations," Zhou wrote in the latest edition of China Finance magazine, published by the People's Bank of China.
The acceleration in Chinese consumer inflation in June, which was driven by rising food and property costs, revived expectations of more interest rate rises in the next few months and rattled Asian stock and commodities markets, even as other data pointed to some cooling in its robust economic growth.
" We must make it more prominent and important to maintain basic stability of the overall price level, and pay attention to price stability in a wider scope," Zhou said.
GROWING DOWNSIDE RISKS?
Zhou also said that the central bank would work to " avoid big fluctuations" in the economic growth, indicating some concerns over downside risks to the economy.
" We should implement prudent monetary policy in a pro-active and safe way to handle the relationship between maintaining stable, relatively fast growth, adjusting economic structures and managing inflationary expectations," he said.
China's import growth fell to its slowest pace in 20 months in June while export growth eased, evidence of the broad impact of the monetary policies that have weighed on economic growth and of growing sluggishness in the global economy.
Still, China will switch its policy focus from curbing inflation to supporting growth in the second half, said Liu Yihui, a researcher with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top government think tank.
Any policy relaxation now would ignite worries about stagflation in the fourth quarter, Liu added.
Inflation will probably peak in July and ease thereafter to about 4 percent toward syear-end, and the central bank needs to fine-tune its policy to lean more on interest rate rises to check inflation and pull real deposit rates out of negative territory, Liu told the official China Securities Journal.
Separately, Xia Bin, a central bank advisoe, told the China Securities Journal that Beijing needs to use a combination of policy tools, including interest rates, currency moves and open market operations as well as changes in banks' required reserve ratios.
MARKET-ORIENTED TOOLS
Many analysts expect the central bank to lean more on interest rates to fight inflation in coming months, partly because there is limited room for it to raise bank reserve ratios further.
" We will use more market-oriented tools and means to maintain necessary controls on liquidity, while maintaining a reasonable amount of social financing to avoid big fluctuations in economic growth," PBOC chief Zhou said.
Zhou's remarks indicated the central bank is trying to shun heavy-handed credit controls and could lean more on conventional policy tools, such as interest rates and currency, analysts say.
The central bank has relied heavily on raising bank reserve requirement ratios to mop up excessive cash in the economy, increasing the ratio nine times since October to a record high of 21.5 percent. It also has raised interest rates five times since then.
" The market-oriented tools, which oppose to administrative measures, typically include interest rates and exchange rate. Bank reserve ratios are more market-oriented than direct lending controls," said Gao Shanwen, chief economist at China Essence Securities in Beijing.
Gao is a former government researcher and once worked at the central bank.
Breakdown of China's revised Q1 balance of payments
BEIJING, July 11 (Reuters) - China's foreign exchange regulator on Monday revised its first-quarter current account surplus to $28.8 billion, down 21 percent from the same period of 2010.
It also revised down its first-quarter capital and financial account surplus to $86.1 billion, up 41 percent from a year earlier.
Following is a breakdown of the BOP (in billions of dollars):
Q12011 Q12011
(revised) (initial) 2010 2009 2008
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS (A+B) 114.9 141.2 531.4 442.0 455.1
CURRENT ACCOUNT (A) 28.8 29.8 305.4 297.1 436.1
Merchandise trade 20.8 20.8 254.2 249.5 360.7
Services trade -8.7 -10.2 -22.1 -29.4 -11.8
Income 5.1 7.6 30.4 43.3 41.4
Transfers 11.6 11.6 42.9 33.7 45.8
CAPITAL & FINANCIAL ACCOUNT (B) 86.1 111.4 226.0 144.8 19.0
Capital account 1.5 ~ 4.6 4.0 3.1
Foreign direct investment (net) 44.8 42.6 124.9 34.3 94.3
Securities investment -2.7 ~ 24.0 38.7 42.7
Other investment 42.5 ~ 72.4 67.9 -121.1
RESERVE ASSETS (C) -141.2 -141.2 -471.7 -398.4 -479.5
Foreign exchange reserves -138.0 -138.0 -469.6 -382.1 -478.3
ERRORS & OMISSIONS (D) 26.2 ~ -59.7 -43.5 24.5
^ Not available.
* Breakdown figures may not add up exactly due to rounding
(Compiled by Aileen Wang and Koh Gui Qing Editing by Jonathan Hopfner)
Oil drops on China, U.S. economy concerns
* China's crude imports tumble 11.5 percent in June
* Brent's premium over U.S. crude holds around $22/bbl
* European sovereign debt crisis weighs on prices (Adds Asia refiners decline extra Saudi crude)
By Alejandro Barbajosa
SINGAPORE, July 11 (Reuters) - Oil fell for a second day on Monday after a drop in China's crude imports and disappointing U.S. employment data rekindled concerns of a demand slowdown at the world's top two energy consumers.
Worries that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe may spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy, also made investors edgy, keeping them away from risky assets.
Brent crude for August < LCOc1> slid 62 cents to $117.71 a barrel at 0608 GMT, still less than $10 from this year's peak above $127, while U.S. crude benchmark < CLc1> West Texas Intermediate (WTI) shed 60 cents to $95.60.
China's crude imports tumbled by 11.5 percent in June from a year earlier to 4.8 million barrels per day (bpd), their lowest in eight months.
Fears that Beijing may raise interest rates further to contain the fastest inflation in three years dampened risk appetite, said Ben Le Brun, market analyst with CMC Markets.
Brent on Friday dipped 0.2 percent after data showed U.S. jobs growth ground to a near halt in June as employers hired the fewest workers in nine months.
" It's a combination of both pieces of news, the world's two biggest consumers with not good economic data," Le Brun said from Sydney.
" The drop in China's imports probably has to do with the tightening of rates in the past six to 12 months and the U.S. jobs report was a very bad miss. Considering all the headwinds that we have had recently, the market has held quite well."
Reduced loadings of North Sea crude were also supportive for Brent on Friday, while front-month WTI plunged by almost $2.50.
WTI's discount to Brent < CL-LCO1=R> hovered close to $22 on Monday after it widened to as much as $22.45 in the previous session, the highest since the intraday record of $23.34 on June 15, on news that output from the North Sea Forties oil stream will slip to a two-year low in August.
Last week's gains in Brent pushed prices well above the level prior to the release of global emergency stockpiles coordinated by the International Energy Agency, as traders bet the extra 60 million barrels of oil would be insufficient to stop markets tightening later this year.
Money managers raised their net-long U.S. crude futures and options positions in the week to July 5, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission said on Friday.
Iran's caretaker oil minister said on Saturday that OPEC was opposed to any increase in output ceilings in the absence of " well-studied justifications" .
SAUDI BARRELS
Saudi Arabia's offer for additional crude in August met scant interest from refiners across northeast Asia who are just taking their full contractual volumes, while one buyer in India and one in Southeast Asia accept extra barrels.
Limited demand for extra barrels from Asia, the world's fastest-growing market, would leave the Saudis with few options to find homes for additional cargoes. Top exporter Saudi Aramco was expected to have raised output to near 10 million barrels per day (bpd) in June.
In the currency market, the euro fell back close to a record low versus the Swiss franc, hurt by renewed jitters over the euro zone's debt crisis ahead of an emergency meeting of European officials.
European Council President Herman Van Rompuy over the weekend called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy.
In stark contrast to the Thursday's positive ADP employment, the non-farm payrolls figures on Friday were rather disappointing. Only 18,000 jobs were added in June against Bloomberg median forecast of 105,000 increases, while the unemployment rate rose to 9.2%.
Heading into Q2 earnings season
Alcoa is scheduled to release its 2Q earnings results tonight, unofficially kicking off the Q2 earnings season. Other heavy weights announcing results this week include JP Morgan on Thursday and Citigroup on Friday. The previous quarter's economic recovery was slower as companies suffered the effects of Japanese Tsunami aftermath, while economists debated whether are we going through a 'soft patch' or a recession.
Macro announcments
Mon 11 Jul: PRC New Yuan Loans (Jun)
Tue 12 Jul: US Trade Balance (May)
Wed 13 Jul: PRC Real GDP (2Q), PRC Industrial Production (Jun), US FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thu 14 Jul: SG GDP Estimate (2Q), US Advance Retail Sales (Jun), US PPI (Jun), US Initial Jobless Claims
Fri 15 Jul: US CPI (Jun), US U. of Michigan Confidence (Jun)
* MSCI APXJ down nearly 1 pct after three weeks of gains
* Euro hovers within sight of a record low against Swiss franc
* Australian shares tumble 1.6% on carbon emission tax plan
* U.S. bonds, gold shine as risk appetite dims
By Saikat Chatterjee HONG KONG, July 11 (Reuters) - The euro weakened in Asia on Monday ahead of an emergency meeting among European policymakers on the sovereign debt crisis while equities snapped three consecutive weeks of gains on weak data from the world's two biggest economies. The single currency
held near a record low against the Swiss franc on growing worries that the debt crisis was now beginning to infect the continent's big economies such as Italy -- the region's third biggest.
Markets have barely begun recovering from an extended period of volatility in the first half of 2011, when concerns around slowing growth in China, an extended slump in the U.S. and worrisome news from the euro zone have begun to resurface, deterring demand for risky assets once again. Australian stocks < .AXJO> was the region's worst performer, shedding 1.6 percent, after the government unveiled a plan to tax carbon emissions from the nation's worst polluters, sending shares of coal miners, steel and airlines such as Macarthur Coal
, BlueScope Steel
and Virgin Australia
tumbling.
Japanese shares < .N225> fell 0.7 percent after hefty gains last week, with banks bearing the brunt of the losses. In Europe, stock index futures point to a lower open with STOXX Europe 50 futures
down 0.7 percent, futures for Germany's DAX index
are down 0.2 percent and those for France's CAC-40
down 0.5 percent.
Shorting China plays may have staying power: http://r.reuters.com/fys52s Asia rates have room to rise beyond inflation peak:
WEEKAHEAD-Hurdles abound in global recovery: Australia carbon tax hits mining, airline shares. However, steep declines may be unlikely before the earning season kicks off with Alcoa
this week, as most Asian markets are trading above the day's lows with some scattered buying seen in defensive counters like utilities.
" The correction has been relatively mild and suggests that investors are not all that bearish as they could have been, suggesting a preference towards buying on dips rather than selling into strength," said Khiem Do, chairman of Asia multi-asset team at Barings Asset Management in Hong Kong. " This is a good day for bargain hunting, especially among investors who haven't participated in the rally earlier.
" Before Monday's drop of 1.2 percent, the MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan < .MIAPJ0000PUS> had gained for three consecutive weeks as investors bet that the second half held better prospects for risky assets than the first. But Friday's much-awaited U.S. non-farm payrolls data revealed the economy created only 18,000 jobs in June, well short of an expected 90,000, dashing optimism that the economy was emerging from a soft patch.
Adding to worries on the global economy, data showed annual inflation in China accelerated to a three-year high in June while import growth slowed to its a two-year low.
NUANCED APPROACH In currency markets, the euro
held around the $1.42 line on some light short-covering after falling to a two-week low of $1.4187 in early Asian trade with some technical support seen around the $1.4150 line.
Against the safe-haven Swiss franc, the common currency
slipped back towards a record low of 1.1808 hit in late June on EBS. European Council President Herman Van Rompuy has called an emergency meeting of top officials dealing with the euro zone debt crisis for Monday morning, reflecting concern that the crisis could spread to Italy, the region's third largest economy.
Even as investors fretted about its fiscal health, pushing Italian bond yields to euro lifetime highs on Friday, the Financial Times reported that some EU leaders were considering allowing a selective default by Athens to put its debt on a more sustainable footing.
Taking a leaf out of the weaker tone in equities, most Asian currencies slipped against the dollar with the weak payrolls data implying policymakers would be reluctant to use currency gains to counter rising inflation in the face of weak external demand. Frederic Neumann, co-head of Asian economics at HSBC says price pressures in much of Asia is driven by local demand which exchange rate swings can do little to counter, suggesting central banks would rely on more traditional methods of policy tightening such as interest rates.
Reduced demand for risk boosted prices of perceived safe-haven assets like U.S. Treasuries and gold
with yields on 10-year U.S. notes steadying at 3.01 percent on Monday from 3.18 percent barely a week ago. Gold held above the $1540 an ounce line. Oil trended lower with U.S. crude
falling by more than $3 to below $96 a barrel as the weak data cast a shadow on the economic outlook.
* Dana sees big growth in China driven by vehicle demand, production
* Eyes localisation of production, more factories in future
* Says to grow organically and via partnerships (Adds quotes, background)
SHANGHAI, July 11 (Reuters) - Dana Holding Corp , an auto parts supplier, eyes massive growth in China driven by vehicle production and demand in the world's biggest auto market, the firm's Asia Pacific president said on Monday. Dana, a supplier of axles, drive shafts and transmissions, has a small presence in China at the moment. But the firm is looking to enter into more partnerships and to ramp up the hiring of engineers in China.
" We are very small in China, but I think that brings us the opportunity for significant amount of growth. The window of opportunity is still open for us and that's what we see for the next few years for all of our product lines," Aziz Aghili, president of Asia Pacific, told Reuters in an interview. In 2010, China contributed around 10 percent to Asia Pacific sales of around $732 million. Aghili, who declined to give specific forecast figures, said the firm is looking to enter into partnerships to market their products in China. Last week, the firm said it completed an agreement to increase its stake in Dongfeng Dana Axel Co, the joint venture between Dongfeng Motor Group < 0489.HK> and Dana.
" Partnership is one of the strategies to grow in China, not in all product lines but in certain product lines," Aghili said adding that interest for joint ventures existed in Dana's light axles and drive shaft business lines. Dana's biggest product line in China is its axle business, but the firm may start producing its sealing products in China if there is demand for it. Dana will also produce a light-weight axle specially designed for the Chinese market early next year, Aghili said.
WOW !! BIG EVENT INSTALLED FOR 2012 LIAO
CHINA president and prime minister retired
PLUS
SINGAPORE presidential election
Click here to read the full statement from the Prime Minister's Office
STATEMENT FROM PRIME MINISTER’s OFFICE
1. In accordance with Article 17(3)(b) of the Constitution, the election of the President isto be held before the commencement of the new term of the President on 1 September2011.
Guiding Principles for the Presidential Election
2. The form of a Presidential Election (PE) campaign should differ fundamentally fromthat of a General Election (GE) campaign given the different roles that the electedPresident and the elected government perform.
3. The process of getting elected to the office of President should be dignified and abovethe political fray. The elected President should have the status of a person who has thedirect mandate of the people to perform an important national function on their behalf.
4. Under the Constitution, the President has important ceremonial and representationalroles as Head of State in Singapore as well as representing and promoting Singapore’sinterests abroad. His key role as an elected President is to be the custodian of Singapore’sreserves and to ensure that only people of integrity are appointed to the key public sectorjobs. This is the main reason for a direct Presidential election. However, it is not thePresident’s role to support or oppose the Government of the day or to advance his ownagenda or policies.
5. The focus of the Presidential Election should therefore be on the suitability andintegrity of the candidates to discharge these functions and bring credit to Singaporeinternationally.
6. The rules and regulations for the conduct of the Presidential Election should thereforefoster a campaign that maintains the dignity of the office and focuses on the key attributesof suitability and integrity of the candidates for the office of President.
Key Elements for the Presidential Campaign
Use of TV for Campaigning
7. TV will be a major medium of the campaign because of its wide reach at the nationallevel. This medium will also allow voters to assess the candidates in a manner in keepingwith the decorum and dignity of the office of President. MediaCorp will facilitatecampaigning over television (TV) for the candidates by providing them TV air-time toaddress the electorate.
a. Each candidate will have two blocks of 10 minutes of TV air time, free of charge, tomake his statements. MediaCorp will record and broadcast the candidate making thesestatements in the form of a " presidential candidate broadcast" (PCB). The first PCB willbe televised the day after Nomination Day while the second PCB will be televised on theeve of Polling Day. An exemption will be granted to allow for this telecast as electionadvertising is generally not allowed on the eve of Polling Day. The broadcast will berepeated in the four official languages. (Mediacorp will provide a suitable translation forbroadcast in those languages which the candidate is not himself speaking in).
b. In addition, MediaCorp will produce and broadcast a TV profile on each candidatefeaturing his personal and professional background.
c. MediaCorp will also broadcast a joint TV interview with all the candidates to allowvoters to directly compare the candidates’ suitability for the office.
Campaigning through the New Media
8. Candidates may carry out campaigning through the Internet or new media.
9. The making, exhibiting or distributing (including through such new media) of a film byanyone concerning the candidates or the election remains subject to the restrictions in theFilms Act. An exemption will be granted during the election period to allow anyindividual to exhibit and distribute live recordings of lawful election activities on theInternet, so long as the film does not distort or dramatise the election activity, and thefilm is not materially altered.
10. Internet content providers may be required to register their website/weblog with MDAif the site is deemed to be " providing any programme, for the propagation, promotion ordiscussion of political or religious issues relating to Singapore" .
Rallies
11. Compared to the 1993 Presidential election, voters now have wider access toinformation about the candidates through the print media, more extensive TV coverage,and the new media. Candidates may however want to introduce themselves in-person toSingaporeans. Each candidate will therefore be allowed to hold one rally, should he wishto do so, at designated locations.
Banners, Posters and Mailing of Campaign Materials
12. The printing and display of banners and posters, and the printing and mailing ofcampaign materials by the candidates should be carried out in conformance with thePresidential Elections Act.
Campaigning by Political Parties and Civic Organisations on behalf of a Candidate
13. The position of the President is politically non-partisan. Political parties shouldtherefore not be directly involved in campaigning using their party names and symbols insupport of a candidate.
14. Civic, business and professional bodies may endorse certain candidates, and publishadvertisements or issue press statements expressing their support for a candidate,provided their constitutions allow them to do so. However, they cannot be engaged tocarry out any activity which is done for the purpose of promoting or procuring acandidate’s election or defeat.
15. All election activities must be carried out in the name of a candidate, and all electionworkers must be individually authorised in writing by the candidate or his election agentfrom nomination day onwards. Individuals who are non-citizens are prohibited fromconducting election activity and cannot be authorised.
Election Financing
16. The PE Act limits campaign expenses to 30˘ per registered voter or $600,000whichever is the greater.
17. Under the Political Donations Act, the only permissible donors for a presidentialcandidate are Singapore citizens who are 21 years or older, or a Singapore-controlled
PRIME MINISTER’S OFFICE
8 JULY 2011
company which carries on business wholly or mainly in Singapore.
Cooling-off Period
18.A cooling-off period where all campaigning must stop will be observed on the eve ofPolling Day.
CAMPAIGNING FOR THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION
Presidential Election will include TV, online campaigning
04:45 AM Jul 09, 2011
SINGAPORE - Candidates for the impending Presidential Election can campaign by way of television broadcasts, rallies, banners and posters, and for the first time, the Internet and new media, the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) said in a statement issued yesterday.
Of these, television will be a " major medium" , it added, because of its wide reach at the national level.
To that end, each candidate will be given two 10-minute blocks of air time to address the electorate, while MediaCorp will produce and broadcast a television profile on each of them, as well as hold a joint television interview with all the candidates for voters to " directly compare the candidates' suitability for the office" , the PMO said.
When contacted, former Deputy Prime Minister Tony Tan - who is one of the presidential hopefuls - said he welcomed the clarity on the guidelines issued by the PMO.
He added: " My campaign team and I look forward to working creatively and appropriately within the guidelines issued. Our goal for the campaign remains unchanged - to reach out to all Singaporeans so that I may share their concerns and aspirations. That is why I seek to be of service to the nation again."
However, fellow presidential hopeful Tan Kin Lian told MediaCorp that he would have " preferred the guidelines to be issued at least six months earlier" .
The ex-NTUC Income CEO said: " Earlier publication would have allowed all citizens to give comments freely, regardless of who might appear as candidates later."
He added: " As it is issued now, after the candidates and their platforms are known, it gives rise to concerns about fair play, especially where the rules on campaigning now differ from the recently held General Election."
In its statement, the PMO said the " form of a Presidential Election (PE) campaign should differ fundamentally from that of a General Election (GE) campaign given the different roles that the elected President and the elected government perform" - a point that Dr Tony Tan said he concurred with.
Unlike in the GE, candidates can only hold one rally. Also, " all election workers must be individually authorised in writing by the candidate or his election agent from nomination day onwards" , PMO said.
It added that individuals who are non-citizens are " prohibited from conducting election activity and cannot be authorised" .
Said Mr Tan Kin Lian: " It is difficult to reach out to the population of several million voters with just one election rally. With such limited outreach opportunities, the Singapore mainstream media would have a huge amount of influence on the Presidential Elections."
He added: " The change in rules on the category of people who are allowed to conduct election activities at this late hour is also quite unfair to a candidate with limited resources."
The third presidential hopeful, former Ayer Rajah MP Tan Cheng Bock, said he will study the guidelines and issue a statement today.
ELECTION PROCESS SHOULD BE 'DIGNIFIED AND ABOVE THE POLITICAL FRAY': PMO
Most political analysts MediaCorp spoke to said that the most critical in the tussle for votes during the campaign period could be the joint television interview, as it is " the first time Singaporeans will be able to see candidates spar with each other" , said Singapore Management University assistant professor Eugene Tan.
National University of Singapore political science don Reuben Wong added: " One important point is if the televised interview will be 'live'. If it is 'live', it will really show up the quality of the candidates, their thinking and response. It will be very telling."
Asst Prof Tan noted that voters would place considerable weight on each candidate's performance in that interview because of the ceremonial and representational roles of the elected head of state.
" The President is essentially the No 1 ambassador of Singapore and voters will consider who can be a better representative for the country," he said.
With the candidates' various television appearances likely to be circulated online, Dr Kenneth Paul Tan, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, noted: " If one does badly on TV, the effects will overflow to the Internet.
Similarly, if anything bad happens on the Internet, it will be reported on TV."
What would give a candidate the upper hand on television appearances would be the ability to " look dignified and at the same time come across as personable and sincere," said Dr Wong.
Asst Prof Tan also noted that while eloquence would be a useful advantage, the key is in whether the candidate can make voters connect with them and persuade them of their ability to " stay true to the oath of the office and the will to serve Singapore as a whole" .
The PMO statement yesterday reiterated that the position of the President is politically non-partisan. " It is not the President's role to support or oppose the Government of the day or to advance his own agenda or policies," PMO said.
The process of getting elected to office should, therefore, be " dignified and above the political fray" , and the candidates' campaign should " (maintain) the dignity of the office and (focus) on the key attributes of suitability and integrity of the candidates" .
The PMO also said candidates' campaign expenses are limited to 30 cents per registered voter or $600,000, whichever is the greater. There were 2,211,102 voters in the May parliamentary elections.
Conduct of campaign
Television
- Each candidate will have two 10-minute blocks of air time to make his statements.
- First presidential candidate broadcast will be televised the day after Nomination Day while the second will be televised on the eve of Polling Day.
- The broadcasts will be repeated in the four official languages.
- MediaCorp will produce and broadcast a profile on each candidate, and broadcast a joint interview with all candidates.
Online
- An exemption to the Films Act will be granted to allow any individual to exhibit and distribute live recordings of lawful election activities, so long as the film does not distort or dramatise the activity, and the film is not materially altered
- Internet content providers may be required to register their website/weblog with the Media Development Authority if the site is deemed to be " providing any programme, for the propagation, promotion or discussion of political or religious issues relating to Singapore" .
Rallies
- Each candidate will be allowed to hold one rally at designated locations.
Civic organisations
- Civic, business and professional bodies may endorse certain candidates, and publish advertisements or issue press statements expressing their support for a candidate. But they cannot carry out activities to promote or procure a candidate's election or defeat.
Political parties
- Political parties should not be directly involved in campaigning using their party names and symbols in support of a candidate.
Road to the Presidential Election
- The date of nomination will follow between five days and one month after the Writ of Election is issued by the Prime Minister.
- The date of the polls will come not earlier than the 10th day, and not later than the 56th day, after the notice of contested elections is issued.
- Candidates can start campaigning after this notice is published, and permitted platforms include house visits, pamphlet distribution, posters and banners, Internet advertising and rallies.
- However, as with the recent General Election, there will be a Cooling Off Day - a first for the Presidential Election.
