Entertainment   

Fellowship of the Shares

Mani u wasnt the one who is bearish.. so dun wori as u are not alone. i too posted days before the correction.. 

 

Well not to offend any FA and TA followers, I do believe in both TA and FA in certain ways. 

TA for short term and FA for long term.

However, I also believe TA and FA only provide an indication, a guide.

But still its not 100% and not a sutra for sure win.. There are many counters moving against the TA and FA.

If you catch it, you will gain. But that will be speculative with high risk.

I'm still learning my trade, so still hope to pick up more skills with both FA and TA experts here.

 

Whatever 'hidden' reasons exist, stock charts do have an uncanny way to reveal the future, especially if many, many stocks behave in a particular manner in tandem.

Reasons are hidden and elusive, but technical action of the charts speak the truth...

 

If not for the sub-prime CDO issue in US, I seriously believe that we will not see such a major correction for the past 1 mth.

If based on the quarterly reports announced by the banks and other major STI index stocks, the performance can only use GREAT to describe.

Many even beat analysts forecast.

Singapore ecomony is still growing, GDP improved, unemployment down. What more can we expect to drive bullish market?

Current sentiment is caused by many panic sell, n BBs aware that they are able to cash out now to create panic and buy in on low later, which further exaggerate the situation.

So with big funding, you can also make the situation and use the situation.

 

 

 

Giantlow... :)

Actually, the current bearishness was 'foreseeable' (after the event, of course... hehe)...

If one had been diligent about one month back in checking the charts of all the stocks, one could have seen the obviously unusual behaviour (weakening) of many, many stocks when everyone and the STI was very bullish.

One lesson to be gained is never never base your decisions on the STI.


I believe I was even chided by a forummer for being bearish at that time...

 

Yup...

To avoid personal financial disaster, one must at all times treat the stock market beast as such... ie a beastly monster who may 'behave' tame, but can all of a sudden sting you real bad, leaving you dumbfounded ... or worse, financially crippled.

Protection of capital should be one's top priority when playing the stock market (in this regard, whether one is a 'punter' or 'investor' (???) is purely academic). Making money fast thus becomes of low priority.

Buy low, sell high... and don't hold unnecessarily....

 

hey hey scotty,

i think the lesson here should be to exit early before the hype fizzles away.

but then again, u never know when it starts to fizzle

jade downward channel seems quite clear

 

Hi elfin, I am holding mostly penny stock counters like Jade. I bought it on the high side and now that it crash, I really got burnt very bad.

My lesson learned here is to avoid stocks that have too much hype.

 

Apart from kopi $$ (just to add on), another way of "interpreting" "channel / range trading" is that BBs are (maybe) slowly exiting their counters which i had spotted in some counters "denominated" by KH people... sighz.. Take a look at the intras for Fri YZJ, and one might be able to see the "DING DONG"...

Like what i had mentioned before, be it bear or bull market, one must not be that baby-sitter / golden pig to get slaughtered..

 

The above is only my own opinions / assumptions and is not an inducement to do any buys / sells actions, thanks.

 

hi giantlow: hm...perhaps i should have phrased it better--manikamaniko said it rightly, that there are only buyers and sellers. so what i meant is that, right now in the market, there are only short term (read: contra period/slightly longer) buyers and sellers. volume has drastically thinnned, since most of the weaker players have been weeded out with the falls from the previous three weeks. The longer term players would have cut, or are holding on. Perhaps some are slowly adding on, but it's certainly not massive bulk buying. ie, rogue was right abt the channel-ranging. You're getting ppl who are buying and selling within a 2c difference to make some 'coffee money'.

scotty, it depends on what counters you are holding, and if you are able to take a 10% fall, and still buy in to average out after that? At this pt in time, it's mathematical. the trend, in spite of the 100 pt swings (in both dow and sti) is clearly downward for now. So it might be best to count the support/resistance of individual counters, and see if it is viable to hold? cos for some counters, there is very strong buying support, and selling is thinning out, but for others, it's very strong selling pressure: not over yet. We're beginning to see the division of wheat from chaff already.

for the blues, i believe a lot of them have instituted share buybacks. SCI and sembmar looks supported at 5.05 and 5.10 respectively. but of course, this is only for now. next week the US releases its consumer sentiment index on thurs. that's expected to go down. but if it goes down by more than expected, you can expect another drop on fri. Europe doesn't look to be holding up despite the Central Bank's injection of funds.

 

my only qn is this: everyone seems to be expecting a year end rally. but is this overconfidence on the part of the BBs, since they've made a lot even with this downturn? what if it doesn't come? ie, macro trends override everything else.  

 

Agree with Mani. When the storm gave warning, best to quickly reduce your shares and protect your capital. Just to share one point from past experience. Psychologically it is not easy to hold onto your losing shares if you find you have "no more bullets". If you reduce your share positions and still have lots of "bullets" getting ready for the next upturn, psychologically it is much easier.... 

 

Scotty... :)

Cutting loss should have been done way up there...

ie. before such a big fall has developed, and losses have accumulated slowly over a period of time.

This can be called "trading" but in reality, trading is nothing but what I call "educated defensive anticipation"...

 To talk of 'cutting loss at this time may or may not be a good thing to do...
since no one can see tomorrow...

 

  folks while you sit out the storm....

some news to drink on.... According to NEWSMAX dated 11/8/07  Coffee is quickly rising from the rank of nutritional ?bad boy? to super-nutrient star status. A new study shows that a double espresso daily combined with exercise can prevent skin cancer. It joins other studies that show coffee helps keep a myriad of diseases, including diabetes, colon cancer, Parkinson?s, and liver cancer at bay, while protecting the memory of older women. The study at Rutger?s University in New Jersey divided hairless mice into four groups. One group drank caffeinated water that was the equivalent of two cups of coffee daily. The second group ran on a running wheel the equivalent of a person running between two and two and a half miles daily. The third group drank caffeinated water and exercised while the fourth group, which was the control group, did neither. All mice were exposed to lamps that generated enough UVB radiation to damage the DNA of skin cells. Researchers discovered that the group of mice that drank caffeinated water and exercised killed off damaged cells ? those that would potentially lead to skin cancer ? best of all. The mice that drank caffeine water only killed off damaged skin cells 96 percent better than the control group, and the exercise-only group killed off damaged cells 120 percent better. But the group that both drank caffeine and exercised killed off almost 400 percent more damaged cells. Regardless, people should still take care to protect themselves against the damaging rays of the sun. ?You should not give up the sunblock,? said Dr. Allan H. Conney, senior author of the study. It?s the only proven way, say experts, to protect yourself from the damaging rays of the sun that can lead to skin cancer.

 

I believe the Singapore economy is very sound (7% growth is being projected) at least for the next two years....I am riding out the storm... 

 

Important question - should I cut losses now or ride out the storm? What do you all say?

 

Technically speaking, what has happened a day, a week or a month ago is passed...

but to all intents and purposes, the price chart for an immediately preceding period shows the current picture or current situation, and thus 'tells what is happening'...

eg.  a downtrend has begun or is in progress.

 

"Only the chart tells what is happening "

 

In my humble opinion, it should be "only the chart tells what HAD HAPPENED". TA users try to establish what is likely to happen in the future with what had happened.

 

maybe should ask zhuge liang to look at the stars, besides just the moon, be it new or full moon and the charts...

 

The stock market consists of only two participants... buyers and sellers...

calling them by whatever names is pointless...

Only the chart tells what is happening ... 

 

elf,

how do you differentiate whether between "real sellers" and "shortist and contra players"

maybe the mkt is realli spooked by the sub prime? I heard that a similar situation is developing in UK.