SPC   

SPC

i just look at the time and sales of SPC, obviously, those contra player had to let go at last minutes, you can see huge mess between 4.45 pm to 5.00 pm, people just keep throwing 1 lot, 2 lot to let go until 5 pm...

 

 

wow sai....so cheap now!  lucky never buy at 6.88.  wonder got chance  to get at 4.88 a not

 

not many think that sub 6 will be here so soon but ... its here. 

 

I received a bad surprised from the big drop as well as I have not look at the stock market for quite a while. The only consolation I have is that I have a few lots.

 

Q4 earnings for SPC is good as refining margin is between $7-$8 (estimated at $7.7) and crude was averaging USD90+. First shipment of crude from Oyong was sold at USD$93.30 while the second shipment of crude was sold at a higher price. EPS for Q4 should be between 30-35cts while dividend is estimated at 45cts. There will also some losses such as a weaker US currency.

 

Moving forward into 2008, RM is likely to be lower especially for 1st half but we will also continue to see higher contribution from upstream business. There is also a good chance that SPC will expand its upstream business in a big way. While crude is likely to continue its downward trend (I say at most USD75), the price will almost certainly rebound to new high (just a matter of when). The key reason for this is due to decreasing oil supply as major oil field in the world continues to dry up. Actual oil supply in 2007 has decreased while oil demand has increased. At the same time despite all the media about alternative energy, there is no significant breakthrough and development in these area. I expect the Fed to move to hyperinflate the economy and hence any recession is likely to be shortlive and oil is likely to hit new high.

 

When all this worry about US economy is over, my take is that oil and gold will be the big new story.

 

 

 

Anybody knows the reason why SPC is having a free falling?

Had droped more than $0.50.

 

SPC had been obmitted since beginning Jan 07. I like this counter very much as it gave me big fortune from May - Oct 07. However, since the subprime crisis evolved, I dind't trade it anymore but still monitor it closely.

Now, hope it will dop further, best below 6.50 one week before SPC announcing its financial result on 30 Jan 08, date given by my UOB's broker. Pse note that last yr 24 Jan 07, SPC announced its 06/07 financial result and at the same time generously given away 35 cents of divedent to be paid out in first week of May 07.

Good luck to all. Cheers.

 

SPC also tua cheong liao

 

Upstream EPS is hard to calculate. CKS, do you have any estimates for that. I remembered last quarter the upstream activities was up 30% from a year ago. But the contribution to the main earning was small and not meaningfull to break up. However, this quarter is gonna be different as SPC is having oil flow from kakap. I think CKS did an analysis before about number of barrels of crude SPC will get from the new flow. I hope Bohai will contribute soon then we all huat together,

 

I am sorry 007 I did not see this tread today, busy punting the China Stocks today. On leave today, so play play lah... Regarding the estimates of SPC this year, actually I am not the best person to do this. I think CKS and Shplayer or GeoJam are the better ones. Anyway I will try... 1Q07 (21.73), 2Q07 (34.79) and 3Q07 (19.50). These numbers has already given us 76¢ for 2007. The RM is up this quarter which is good news to us but I am not so optimistic as CKS for projecting SPC to achieve 35¢ this quarter...lol! I think in the range of 26¢ to 28¢ this quarter which will give us 102¢ to 104¢ for FY2007. Which ever numbers we are projecting here, it's gonna be a solid year for SPC because FY06 was just 55¢ (I think there was a writeback of $70 over million this year due to falling crude) and FY05 was 78¢. So with SPC above $1.00 EPS for 2007 is almost 90% from 2006 and 30% up from 2005. Hence sit back and enjoy this festive season. Long this counter dun give us much stress, will sleep well and eat well till get fat...lol! Cheers!

 

hi Jkbk007, greetings of the season....long timenoc..  good to know you have become a long term investor... you will be ok if you are vested in SPC.  bottom line I believe we should have eps of at least 1.10 for year 2007 and a q4 of 35cts given crude is now averaging 90 cts...  what say you idesa168..

 

I do not see SPC following WTI crude but fundamentals for SPC in Q4 should be ok. RM is pretty ok for Q4.

BTW idesa168, have you made any fundamental analysis to estimate EPS for Q4? What is your revised estimate EPS for upstream activity?

 

Crude Oil may test US$100 mark this time. It's now US$96. Although all knows that SPC rely much on the RM not the price of crude oil, but for the whole of this year, SPC had been moving in tandem with the crude oil.

 

LOL....now the bid/ask price is closed @7.41/7.50....how to trade lah with such big gap!

 

In history, it is not difficult to find examples of great things being 'demolished' and then silly things put in their place.... well that's humanity, I suppose... hehehe...

 

This shows things can get silllier too... not just better...

 

The new system very difficult to play lah. For example, someone bought @7.43 one lot and it jumps to 7.48. If I missed 7.43, I should be able to enter at 7.44 right? Sigh...catch no ball leh!

 

Dun be so humble ideas168, I think you did much better than me. I have not traded for a few months. I am value investor and not a good trader. In the past, I have punted SPC and I found that I would have benefited a lot more and spent a lot less effort if I had hang on my shares.

I believe you will see your "Fa" again in about 1 month time.

Merry X'mas and a happy new year.

 

Congratulation 007. It's now 7.50 and a cool 15¢ gain for you if you grabbed your @7.35. I am no god, so dun take my advise blindly, do your homework. I thhink your trading skill is better than mine, dun need me to advise...lol. I am just playing with lots of luck here...cheers, and Merry X'mas

 

ideasa168, took your advise and grab some at 7.35.

 

Monday will be bullish since DOW closed above 200 pts and Crude Oil advanced $2.00 in the overnight trade. However, the new bidding system being introduced, no one experience that in Singapore, hence the volatility is left unknown. But it's quite pretty sure that all counters will be in green comes Monday. I think those who managed to get SPC at 7.30 "SHOULD" gain on Monday, but I am not sure that includes me as I got mine @7.40. Lets hope all HUAT together, dun leave me behind...lol...cheers!